Historical Earthquakes Research Articles

Geodetic constraints on slip rate on the Karakoram fault and its role in the Himalayan arc deformation

The evolution of the >1000 km long Karakoram fault along the southwestern margin of the Tibetan plateau and its role in Himalayan arc deformation is debated extensively. We report new results of continuous GPS measurements along a >300 km length of the Karakoram fault and suggest that the fault in the Nubra valley (K2 segment of the northern Karakoram fault) is inactive while that in the Bangong Chaxikang region (the southern Karakoram fault), slips at a rate of 1.6–3.2 mm/year. The low slip rate on the southern segment and no slip on the northern segment of the Karakoram fault support the model in which the Karakoram fault is considered a transient feature (and not a lithospheric scale fault) in the Himalayan arc deformation, that acted as transfer structure linking thrusts in the Pamir and western Tibet. Once the Longmu Co Gozha Co fault system (a part of the Altyn Tagh fault) developed in the late Pliocene and impinged on the Karakoram fault, the northern segment of the Karakoram fault became inactive. Further, our modelling of GPS measurements indicates a locking depth of ∼12–15 km for the southern Karakoram fault. Although, because of low fault slip and uncertainty in the measurements it is not well constrained, the lack of historical and instrumental earthquakes of large magnitude implies that the southern part of the Karakoram fault has been accumulating deformation for several centuries, probably confirms that the southern Karakoram fault has been accumulating strain for several centuries.

A data extension framework of seismic-induced gravelly soil liquefaction based on semi-supervised methods

In studies of gravelly soil liquefaction discrimination, the number of training samples significantly affects model performance. However, historical earthquakes provide limited instances of gravelly soil liquefaction, resulting in no guarantee of the generalization performance of existing models. Additionally, valuable data from liquefiable critical layer points and unlabeled points outside the critical layer are often overlooked in stratigraphic exploration, despite their high value. Therefore, in this paper, a data extension method for semi-supervised learning based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo–Bayesian network (MCMC-BN) method is proposed and a semi-MCMC-BN gravelly soil liquefaction discrimination model is constructed. By effectively mining the available site liquefaction information, the proposed method increases the sample size of the gravelly soil liquefaction dataset by approximately 4 times, expanding 120 initial liquefaction samples to 476. The results demonstrate that the extended liquefaction database improves the distribution of liquefaction data for gravelly soils. The semi-supervised learning model outperforms the supervised learning model, highlighting the feasibility of the semi-supervised approach for gravelly soil liquefaction discrimination. In addition, debris flow data for the Wenchuan area, China, are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, the impacts of the confidence level magnitude, critical soil layer selection, and different machine learning methods on the data extension outcomes are discussed. The expanded database can provide data support to studying gravelly soil liquefaction, and the proposed data expansion framework can be used for related research in other fields.

Nearly Simultaneous Pairs and Triplets of Historical Destructive Earthquakes with Distant Epicenters in the Italian Apennines

Abstract Historical seismic catalogs of Italy record several instances of pairs or triplets of large earthquakes (Mw>6.7) along the Apennine chain, occurring on the same date or within a short time frame (days or weeks). Some of these events have mesoseismic areas tens of kilometers apart and/or seismogenic structures located more than 1–3 times the fault length away. Although in the case of aligned and/or contiguous faults, their cascading activation can be explained by variations in static Coulomb stress, in the case of distant faults, this mechanism could sometimes be replaced by what is known as dynamic triggering, which is caused by the passage of seismic waves generated by a remote source. In this study, I analyze three significant ancient seismic sequences that occurred in the south-central Apennines, suggesting that the extent of the destructive effects of these earthquakes can be attributed to remote dynamic triggering, causing the activation of different and unrelated seismogenic structures within a specific time frame.

Present-day crustal movement and seismic moment balance on major active faults around the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault, Tibetan Plateau, China

After the 2021 Ms 7.4 Madoi, China earthquake located south of the eastern Kunlun fault, the coseismic Coulomb stress changes show that the earthquake potential is enhanced towards the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault. Before the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault is considered to being a region with the highest frequency occurrence of moderate-to-strong earthquakes in mainland China, where there are still at least three seismic gaps at present, indicating an urgent earthquake hazard. The tectonic deformation pattern is closely related to the development and occurrence of earthquakes. In this study, we collect all the available GPS data to obtain a crustal movement velocity field with high precision and high resolution by removing nontectonic effects within the study area. The GPS velocity profile and two-dimensional strain rates are then derived from the updated GPS velocities to analysis the characteristics of crustal deformation. Our results demonstrate that the Longriba fault zone slips predominantly right-laterally with the rate of 5.2 ± 0.5 mm/yr and the crustal shortening rate is ∼0.5 mm/yr across the Longriba and Longmenshan faults. Along with notable crustal extension and contraction, the principal strain rate field is distributed in a wide area on the northwest part of the Longmenshan fault, and decreases southwestward along the Longmenshan fault zone. In addition, we provide the time series of 8 campaign GPS stations which have never been published before. Moreover, the moment deficit estimate is a well-established way of assessing the earthquake hazard at a specific fault. Accompanying with the inverted slip rates and locking depth, we estimate the rates of moment accumulation on major faults and compare them with the seismic moment released on each fault derived from the Chinese historical earthquake catalog which extends for more than 2000 years in many regions. We find that the moment deficit is mainly concentrated on the Longriba fault with a value of 4.18 × 1017 Nm/yr. The Longriba fault have accumulated enough seismic energy to generate one Mw > 7.7 earthquake on it, or two Mw > 7.5 earthquakes on its two branches in the future. This study is an essential indicator for understanding the present-day tectonic deformation pattern in the Tibetan Plateau and is also helpful for seismic hazard assessment.

Assessing the Yuli surface deformation from the 20220918 Chishang earthquake: an integrated RTK GNSS network approach

The 20220918 Chishang earthquake impacted the Yuli area in the Longitudinal Valley of eastern Taiwan. Longitudinal Valley is situated near the boundary of the Philippine Plate and Eurasian Plate boundary with frequent seismicity and historical earthquakes. This study uses RTK GNSS measurements to characterize the 0918 seismic effects, revealing different coseismic displacement patterns in the Central Range, Coastal Range, and Longitudinal Valley blocks. Ruptures were mainly in the Longitudinal Valley, extending into downtown Yuli township. The influence on these geological formations highlights the complex interactions between the structures and underlying tectonic forces. Our investigations show that the Central Range block experienced a 1.17 m SW horizontal displacement and 1.1 m vertical uplift, while the Coastal Range block displayed a 1.18 m NW horizontal displacement and 0.65 m subsidence. The Longitudinal Valley block was divided by recent ruptures, with its western part impacted by the Central Range block, experiencing a 0.79 m SW displacement and 0.63 m uplift, and its eastern part influenced by the Coastal Range block, experiencing a 1.02 m NW displacement and 0.13 m subsidence. Our data indicates that different blocks were all affected differently, reflecting complex relationships between the subsurface faults to the surface fault traces. The result suggests the Central Range Fault have triggered the Yuli Fault for west-side up motion and possess a westward dip connected to the Central Range Fault. The post-seismic surveys reveal complex interactions between the Central Range and Longitudinal Valley Faults, vital for advancing earthquake mitigation strategies.

Prediction of seismic impacts at the site of Plavinu HPP from a potential seismic source in Koknese (Latvia)

The study considers the impact of seismic waves from the source of a potential earthquake in Latvia on the site of the Plavinu hydroelectric power station, which is located in unfavorable geological, tectonic, and geodynamic conditions. A direct seismology problem was solved in two stages to assess seismic impacts on the site. In the first stage, the modeling of synthetic seismograms was carried out, and in the second stage, a prediction of seismic impacts at the hydroelectric power station site was conducted. In the first stage, we used wave field modeling applying Green's method. In the second stage, ground motion characteristics were obtained using a one-dimensional, nonlinear ground response analysis method. A wave field of 15 Green's functions was obtained, which was then converted into a 3-component accelerogram. The accelerogram was then used as a seismic impulse to a Prequaternary sediment's surface. A set of engineering and seismic characteristics of soil was obtained, i.e. amplification, Fourier amplitudes, and spectral amplitudes. The paper demonstrates the ability to acquire valuable information about the seismic wave field and ground motion from macroseismic data from historical earthquakes. This is especially important for intra-plate conditions with limited seismic statistics. Prediction of engineering and seismic conditions are of great practical importance since they will allow us to identify the most vulnerable sites of the soil at the Plavinu HPP.

New Magnitude–Area Scaling Relations for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022

ABSTRACT We develop new magnitude–area scaling relations for application in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) and future applications. A total of 18 published relations are selected, comprising the following tectonic and slip types: crustal strike-slip (seven relations), reverse (two relations), normal (two relations), subduction interface (five relations), and two dip-slip relations to augment the small number of available reverse and normal relations. The scaling relations are evaluated against an instrumental earthquake database flatfile, and scores are provided for each relation. Equations of the form Mw=logA+C are then used to develop mean and bounding relations for the suite of scaling relations. The final set of relations used in NZ NSHM 2022 is adjusted to be consistent with observations of major historical New Zealand earthquakes and U.S. Geological Survey practice. We also provide a second set of Mw=logA+C relations that are absent of these adjustments and so more directly reflect the results of our scoring of the published relations.

Mapping Seismic Hazard for Canadian Sites Using Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Model

The estimated seismic hazard based on the delineated seismic source model is used as the basis to assign the seismic design loads in Canadian structural design codes. An alternative for the estimation is based on a spatially smoothed source model. However, a quantification of differences in the Canadian seismic hazard maps (CanSHMs) obtained based on the delineated seismic source model and spatially smoothed model is unavailable. The quantification is valuable to identify epistemic uncertainty in the estimated seismic hazard and the degree of uncertainty in the CanSHMs. In the present study, we developed seismic source models using spatial smoothing and historical earthquake catalogue. We quantified the differences in the estimated Canadian seismic hazard by considering the delineated source model and spatially smoothed source models. For the development of the spatially smoothed seismic source models, we considered spatial kernel smoothing techniques with or without adaptive bandwidth. The results indicate that the use of the delineated seismic source model could lead to under or over-estimation of the seismic hazard as compared to those estimated based on spatially smoothed seismic source models. This suggests that an epistemic uncertainty caused by the seismic source models should be considered to map the seismic hazard.

Shaking table tests of a nonstructural freestanding object with variable center of gravity

Freestanding objects have endured seismic damage during major historical earthquakes, but their seismic performance is not fully understood yet. A steel frame was constructed with steel rods and moveable plates to investigate the effect of the center of gravity (CG) on the seismic response of nonstructural freestanding objects. The location of the CG can be tuned to change the CG in the frame. Two groups of shaking table tests were carried out using instrumented floor motion. To verify the shaking table test results, an analytical model was defined based on Housner's rocking model. The experimental response modes were predicted correctly. The experimental kinetic coefficient of friction obtained in the slow-pull tests agreed with the peak acceleration of the steel frame in the shaking table tests. The displacement amplitude generally decreased with increasing height of CG (hcg); however, this trend was not observed when the CG was fixed. Identical properties were observed for the rotational response of the frame. The experimental and analytical rocking responses were in agreement in terms of amplitude, but not in terms of time history and trajectories. The overturing criteria of overturing velocity, spectral velocity, and vulnerability, were evaluated using the experimental results. The overturning spectral acceleration was not accurately predicted using Housner's equation. The overturning probability and ratio were correctly predicted, and they increased with the increase in hcg. The findings of this work enable seismic risk mitigation of nonstructural freestanding objects.

Focal mechanism of a Late Triassic large magnitude earthquake along the Longmen Shan fault belt, eastern Tibetan Plateau

Stress states near active fault zones are key to understand their seismogenic setting, geodynamic evolution and future seismic activity. The Longmen Shan Fault Belt (LSFB) is a prominent fault zone that has had a long history of activity and major recent earthquakes in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. However, we have no records of major events prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and this hinders progress in understanding both the past and future seismicity of the LSFB. A Late Triassic pseudotachylyte, recently discovered and dated, provides an opportunity to compare modern stress states with those acting ca. 230 Ma ago. Here we use a new paleoseismological approach, based on the magnetic fabric of the fault rocks, to determine the focal mechanism of Late Triassic seismic events, each recorded in pseudotachylyte veins at the Bajiaomiao outcrop. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of pseudotachylytes and cataclasites arises from the shape-preferred orientation of coseismic neoformed magnetite and monoclinic pyrrhotite, whereas that of protocataclasite arises mainly from the crystallographic preferred orientation of inherited clastic magnetite. The AMS of fault rocks shows well-defined magnetic foliation and lineation. The pseudotachylyte generation vein formed along the plane where seismic slip took place, while the AMS obliquity with respect to this plane indicates seismic slip with ∼248° trend and 38° dip. This result is consistent with the attitude of macroscopically visible subhorizontal striations on the pseudotachylyte plane itself. The consistent asymmetry of multiple injection veins with respect to the pseudotachylyte generation vein, along with the asymmetry of the AMS fabric, shows that seismic deformation resulted from left-lateral, strike-slip motion. This study provides the oldest example, to date, of focal mechanism determination using the AMS method. The kinematics of the Late Triassic event departs from that of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake thrust motion. Yet, with a displacement estimated between ∼4.4 and 17.4 m, the magnitude of the Late Triassic event was likely Mw 7.5–7.9.

Historical Earthquake on the North-Eastern Extension of the East Anatolian Fault

Historical Earthquake on the North-Eastern Extension of the East Anatolian Fault

Deformation Behavior and Reactivation Mechanism of the Dandu Ancient Landslide Triggered by Seasonal Rainfall: A Case Study from the East Tibetan Plateau, China

In recent years, numerous ancient landslides initially triggered by historic earthquakes on the eastern Tibetan Plateau have been reactivated by fault activity and heavy rainfall, causing severe human and economic losses. Previous studies have indicated that short-term heavy rainfall plays a crucial role in the reactivation of ancient landslides. However, the deformation behavior and reactivation mechanisms of seasonal rainfall-induced ancient landslides remain poorly understood. In this paper, taking the Dandu ancient landslide as an example, field investigations, ring shear experiments, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) deformation monitoring were performed. The cracks in the landslide, formed by fault creeping and seismic activity, provide pathways for rainwater infiltration, ultimately reducing the shear resistance of the slip zone and causing reactivation and deformation of the Dandu landslide. The deformation behavior of landslides is very responsive to seasonal rainfall, with sliding movements beginning to accelerate sharply during the rainy season and decelerating during the dry season. However, this response generally lags by several weeks, indicating that rainfall takes time to infiltrate into the slip zone. These research results could help us better understand the reactivation mechanism of ancient landslides triggered by seasonal rainfall. Furthermore, these findings explain why many slope failures take place in the dry season, which typically occurs approximately a month after the rainy season, rather than in the rainy season itself.

Several strong historical earthquakes during Ming and Qing Dynasties and their effects to local reconstruction at Southern Shanxi Province, North China: Insight from the Chinese literature

The dissection of related Chinese literature of historical strong earthquakes is very important for formulating effective disaster mitigation measures. During the Ming and Qing Dynasties (AD 1368–1910) in North China, there were three strong earthquakes (AD 1556 Huaxian M 8.25 earthquake, AD 1695 Linfen M 7.75 earthquake and AD 1815 Pinglu M 6.75 earthquake), caused great damages to local cities of southern Shanxi Province, including damages of various types of buildings, numerous casualties, while the society and economy suffered a sudden heavy blow. Meanwhile, the occurrence of these earthquakes also provides important opportunities to restore the regional social order. In addition to the support of national disaster relief policies, the local officials actively organized people to cope with the disasters, made every effort to reconstruct the cities, that reflected the feelings of "caring about People's livelihood" or "the principle of supremacy of life", to improve the efficiency of regional social order benign operation. Certainly, the recovery and reconstruction process after the three strong earthquakes reflected imbalance between different time, regions, and between urban and rural areas. The literature review in this article has certain reference significance for the formulation and improvement of current disaster reduction measures.

Assessment of the seismic hazard in North China by combining micro-seismicity records and geodetic observations

North China has suffered numerous devastating historical and recent earthquakes, causing huge loss of life and property. Therefore, it is vital to identify the regions with the greatest potential to generate large earthquakes in the future. Previous studies mainly evaluated the seismic hazard in North China using earthquake records or geodetic methods separately. Here, we evaluated the seismic records and geodetic observations in combination to comprehensively assess the earthquake potential. We first evaluated the earthquake catalog and determined that the completeness range of magnitude is 1.9 to 2.8 based on the b-values estimated by magnitude-frequency distribution using catalogs with different minimum-magnitude cutoffs. We then obtained the spatial distributions of three strain rate parameters, including the maximum shear, the principal, and second invariant of the strain rates, using interseismic Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. The robustness of the strain rate model was validated by comparing previous studies. We then analyzed the seismic hazard in North China based on the strain rates and b-values and determined the regions with relatively high seismic hazard potentials. The results suggested that large strain rates are mainly concentrated on the western border of the Ordos Block and the Tangshan fault zone. Different strain rate parameters yielded similar spatial distributions of recurrence intervals with different magnitudes. We further revealed that the western border of the Ordos Block and Tangshan fault regions exhibit relatively short (∼7000–15,000 year) ML 7.5 earthquake recurrence times, compared with those of other regions in North China. Although the results obtained in this study were limited by the completeness of earthquake records, the spatial distribution of the GNSS observation, the assumption of elastic strain accumulation, and the complexity of the mechanisms of intraplate earthquakes, our findings will contribute to the assessment of seismic hazards in North China.

Comparison of Ground-Shaking Hazard for Segmented versus Multifault Earthquake-Rupture Models in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract Multifault ruptures are common for historical earthquakes, and here we consider their impact on seismic hazard. We compare ground-shaking hazard forecasts from the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), which incorporates many multifault ruptures (referred to as the multifault model) with modeled hazard from a simpler model of characteristic earthquakes on individual faults or fault segments (referred to as the segmented model). The multifault model includes very-low-probability rupture lengths of up to ∼1100 km and a mean of 221–234 km, whereas the segmented model primarily comprises rupture lengths of <200 km (mean, 43–51 km) and the maximum of 414 km. The annual rates of Mw 6.9–7.5 earthquakes are more than an order of magnitude higher for the segmented model (0.132–0.24/yr; recurrence times ∼4–7 yr) than the multifault model (0.027/yr; recurrence times 37 yr). Conversely, the rates of earthquakes are similar for segmented and multifault models at Mw>7.5 (0.018–0.031/yr; recurrence times 32–56 yr). Despite differences in rupture lengths and annual rates of earthquakes, the calculated ground-shaking hazard at 10% probability of exceedance (PoE) in 50 yr for the segmented model differs by <55% compared with the multifault model for 95% of sites across Aotearoa New Zealand. For 50% of sites, the modeled hazard differs by <20% between the two models. If a distributed seismicity model (DSM) is included in the hazard calculations, 95% of sites differ in modeled hazard by <18%, and 50% of sites differ by <2.2%. In most areas, seismic hazard at 10% PoE in 50 yr is greater for the segmented model than the multifault model, with notable exceptions along the central Alpine fault in the western South Island and the Taupō volcanic zone in the central North Island.

ShakeMap Atlas 4.0 and AtlasCat: An Archive of the Recent and the Historical Earthquake ShakeMaps, and Impacts for Global Hazard Analyses and Loss Model Calibration

Abstract Archival earthquake studies often focus on event and source characteristics for use in earthquake catalogs, seismotectonic understanding, and ground-motion studies—many of these targeting better constraints for probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses. The ShakeMap Atlas, in contrast, focuses on spatial distribution of shaking for the historical events, providing the best constraints at all locations that experienced significant shaking for each event, facilitating analyses of human experience, damage, and induced hazards (ground failure). The aim of the Atlas is to gain a general understanding and depiction of the shaking distribution for a suite of canonical earthquakes, and, coupled with loss data for each event, to provide a basis for earthquake loss model calibration, among other uses. Although the initial motivation for developing the ShakeMap Atlas was calibrating the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system, over time, the Atlas has proved to be a useful tool for its users, and, as such, its scope has been vastly expanded in this newest version. The fourth version of the USGS ShakeMap Atlas is an openly available compilation of over 14,000 ShakeMaps of significant global earthquakes between 1900 and 2020. This revision includes: (1) the latest version of the ShakeMap software that provides refined uncertainty estimations and improved methods to combine macroseismic observations with updated ground-motion models; (2) an updated earthquake source catalog; (3) a refined strategy to select suites of prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) expanded macroseismic intensity and ground-motion datasets. We also tabulate reported economic losses and fatalities for Atlas events where such data are openly available. These changes make the new ShakeMap Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated catalog invaluable for investigating near-source ground motions, as well as seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development and testing.

The Earthquake of 13 April 1850 near Ston, Croatia: Macroseismic Analyses

Abstract The earthquake that occurred near the city of Ston, Croatia, on 13 April 1850 is, together with the one from 1996, the strongest known event in the northwest part of the Dubrovnik epicentral area. This is the region with the highest seismic hazard in Croatia with a rich history of damaging earthquakes. Although listed in the relevant catalogs, this earthquake has never been addressed by a dedicated study. Herewith, we present analyses of a wealth of newly found material related to the damage and postearthquake actions of the authorities of the Province of Dalmatia, then a part of the Austrian Empire. We were able to estimate intensity at five localities, with a further six where the data were sufficient only to constrain the minimum intensity value. By far, most of the data refer to Ston and Dubrovnik. Intensity data points were inverted for the source parameters by two different methods, each of which yielded similar results. The focus is macroseismically located about 7 km east-southeast from Ston, at a depth of 9 km. Estimated epicentral intensity of 8.2 on the European macroseismic scale is equivalent to macroseismic local magnitude MmL=6.0 or the moment magnitude Mmw=5.9. The location of focus and the epicentral intensity are practically identical to those of the Ston–Slano earthquake of 1996. This is why we propose that these two earthquakes share the same composite seismogenic source consisting of a set of imbricated mostly reverse faults related to the basal thrust of the Dalmatian tectonic unit. The reliable location and quantification of the 1850 earthquake should contribute to a better understanding of the active dynamics of the set of large seismogenic faults in the Dubrovnik epicentral area.

Paleoseismic Analysis of the Walanae Fault Zone in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

The most seismogenic fault of South Sulawesi region is Walanae Fault, which has a moderate seismicity history with magnitudes ranging from Mw 4 to Mw 5. The largest earthquake occurred in 1997 with a magnitude of Mw 5.9. After the Donggala-Palu earthquake assailed Sulawesi Island in 2018, the fault in this region were reactivated, including the Walanae Fault system that has pair parallel faults, West Walanae Fault (WWF) and East Walanae Fault (EWF). This fault zone has a 150-km-long and 3-km-wide fault traces, and should have seismicity potential to produce larger earthquakes than the events measured to date. The resulting radiocarbon ages obtained from the dating of organic samples collected on two tranches along with the EWF support that the Walanae Fault zone has a longer earthquake history in the ranges of 4,000 BP (3,050 cal BP and 3,990 cal BP) and 100-300 AD (101 AD pMC and 340 cal BP). The results of age evidence suggest that the Walanae Fault system is an active fault, and must remain of concern as an earthquake source with potential hazards in the region, comprising the West Walanae Fault (WWF) and the East Walanae Fault (EWF). Both faults are separated by a narrow lowland area of Walanae Depression (25 km). The lowland area sandwiched by these two faults harboring a potential seismic amplification that might be generated by thick sediment filled the lowland. Keywords: seismicity, earthquake, radiocarbon dating, Walanae Fault

Imaging overpressurised fracture networks and geological barriers hindering fluid migrations across a slow-deformation seismic gap

There is an ongoing debate on the processes producing background seismicity and deformation transients across seismic gaps, i.e., regions that lack historical large-magnitude earthquakes. Essential missing elements are geophysical images that resolve sources of geophysical unrest. Here, we apply seismic scattering and absorption tomography to data recorded during the 2010–2014 seismic sequence within the Mt. Pollino seismic gap region (Southern Italy). The tomographic models show high sensitivity to fluid content, deformed fractured structures, and impermeable layers stopping fluid migrations. They bridge the gaps between geological and geophysical models and provide a highly-resolved image of the source of seismic and deformation unrest within this seismic gap. High absorption topping the western Pollino seismic volume appears pressurized between the low-Vp/Vs and low-scattering San Donato metamorphic core and a deep basement. Absorbing fluids can only migrate laterally to the east, blocked in the west and southwest by deep low-scattering barriers associated with east-dipping faults and to the north and southeast by saturated overpressurized low-scattering basins. This eastern migration is only partially effective, producing seismicity across the lowest boundary of the high-absorption volume. Our results showcase the potential of seismic scattering and absorption when imaging structures causing geophysical unrest processes across fault networks.

The Chaman and Paghman active faults, west of Kabul, Afghanistan: Active tectonics, geomorphology, and evidence for rupture in the destructive 1505 earthquake

The city of Kabul, Afghanistan, lies within the Kabul Block, which is bounded by the Sarobi, Gardez and Paghman fault, the northern extension of the Chaman fault, accommodating oblique convergence between the Indian and Eurasian plates. In this paper, we describe the geologic structure and tectonic geomorphology of the northeast-striking Paghman fault and a ∼10-km-long portion of the Chaman fault using a combination of field observations and remote sensing data, and assess evidence for rupturing in the 1505 historical earthquake. The Paghman fault is predominantly a left-lateral strike-slip fault with a minor dip-slip component along the eastern margin of the Paghman Mountains. The Chaman and Paghman faults displaces Paleogene to Quaternary units with clear displacement of recent deposits. Continuous left-lateral movement of the both faults have caused stream deflection, capturing, abandonment, and finally, incision of alluvial deposits inside the Kabul Basin. We identify several stages in the alluvial fan development and displacement that were once a continuous unit displaced left-laterally as a single fan but are now incised by beheaded and offset stream channels. An approximately 30-km-long active fault trace is identified with geomorphic evidence of recent faulting and vertical offset ∼0.5–3 m, which we interpret is related to the historical 1505 earthquake in the area along the Chaman and Paghman faults. Our observations indicate significant along-strike variations in faults trace geometry. The seismic event comprises several fault segments separated by discontinuities such as stepovers. The two faults have accumulated enough elastic strain to cause a larger earthquake since the 1505 quake.