Present-day crustal movement and seismic moment balance on major active faults around the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault, Tibetan Plateau, China

Abstract

After the 2021 Ms 7.4 Madoi, China earthquake located south of the eastern Kunlun fault, the coseismic Coulomb stress changes show that the earthquake potential is enhanced towards the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault. Before the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the easternmost segment of the Kunlun fault is considered to being a region with the highest frequency occurrence of moderate-to-strong earthquakes in mainland China, where there are still at least three seismic gaps at present, indicating an urgent earthquake hazard. The tectonic deformation pattern is closely related to the development and occurrence of earthquakes. In this study, we collect all the available GPS data to obtain a crustal movement velocity field with high precision and high resolution by removing nontectonic effects within the study area. The GPS velocity profile and two-dimensional strain rates are then derived from the updated GPS velocities to analysis the characteristics of crustal deformation. Our results demonstrate that the Longriba fault zone slips predominantly right-laterally with the rate of 5.2 ± 0.5 mm/yr and the crustal shortening rate is ∼0.5 mm/yr across the Longriba and Longmenshan faults. Along with notable crustal extension and contraction, the principal strain rate field is distributed in a wide area on the northwest part of the Longmenshan fault, and decreases southwestward along the Longmenshan fault zone. In addition, we provide the time series of 8 campaign GPS stations which have never been published before. Moreover, the moment deficit estimate is a well-established way of assessing the earthquake hazard at a specific fault. Accompanying with the inverted slip rates and locking depth, we estimate the rates of moment accumulation on major faults and compare them with the seismic moment released on each fault derived from the Chinese historical earthquake catalog which extends for more than 2000 years in many regions. We find that the moment deficit is mainly concentrated on the Longriba fault with a value of 4.18 × 1017 Nm/yr. The Longriba fault have accumulated enough seismic energy to generate one Mw > 7.7 earthquake on it, or two Mw > 7.5 earthquakes on its two branches in the future. This study is an essential indicator for understanding the present-day tectonic deformation pattern in the Tibetan Plateau and is also helpful for seismic hazard assessment.