Comparison of Ground-Shaking Hazard for Segmented versus Multifault Earthquake-Rupture Models in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

Abstract Multifault ruptures are common for historical earthquakes, and here we consider their impact on seismic hazard. We compare ground-shaking hazard forecasts from the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), which incorporates many multifault ruptures (referred to as the multifault model) with modeled hazard from a simpler model of characteristic earthquakes on individual faults or fault segments (referred to as the segmented model). The multifault model includes very-low-probability rupture lengths of up to ∼1100 km and a mean of 221–234 km, whereas the segmented model primarily comprises rupture lengths of <200 km (mean, 43–51 km) and the maximum of 414 km. The annual rates of Mw 6.9–7.5 earthquakes are more than an order of magnitude higher for the segmented model (0.132–0.24/yr; recurrence times ∼4–7 yr) than the multifault model (0.027/yr; recurrence times 37 yr). Conversely, the rates of earthquakes are similar for segmented and multifault models at Mw>7.5 (0.018–0.031/yr; recurrence times 32–56 yr). Despite differences in rupture lengths and annual rates of earthquakes, the calculated ground-shaking hazard at 10% probability of exceedance (PoE) in 50 yr for the segmented model differs by <55% compared with the multifault model for 95% of sites across Aotearoa New Zealand. For 50% of sites, the modeled hazard differs by <20% between the two models. If a distributed seismicity model (DSM) is included in the hazard calculations, 95% of sites differ in modeled hazard by <18%, and 50% of sites differ by <2.2%. In most areas, seismic hazard at 10% PoE in 50 yr is greater for the segmented model than the multifault model, with notable exceptions along the central Alpine fault in the western South Island and the Taupō volcanic zone in the central North Island.