Historical Data Sources Research Articles

Northern plains late precontact and historic period winter sand dune usage by bison and human populations

In past examinations of bison and human seasonal migration on the Northern Plains, ecology has played a central role. The definition of ecological regions, however, has only recognized the presence of either parkland or grassland regions. While some works do recognize the small role of “anomalous” landscapes within the grassland such as sand dunes, no detailed examination of these areas has yet to be conducted. This study approaches the role that dune environments played on the Northern Plains to present a holistic interpretation of environmental, historical, and archaeological data sources, and questions their classification as being anomalous. This research concludes that the present and continued use of broad-based ecological classifications to answer questions on bison and human landscape usage do not adequately or accurately interpret the body of historical and archaeological data currently on hand.

Peran Negara terhadap Konflik SARA di Indonesia : Kajian Historis

Abstract. This study aims to analyze the government's role in the SARA conflict in Indonesia. This research method used historical concept studies. Primary historical data sources and secondary data sourced from books and articles. The results of this study reveal a comparison of the government's role since the transition period, namely the period after changing the leadership of the new era to the democratic era. The dark transition period have shifted to become dynamic, due to the increasing level of democratic awareness. The conclusion of this study is the potential for horizontal conflict in Indonesia as a plural country as high risk, and become a powerful time bomb. The sentiment of identities are getting sharper because there are political elites interests that encourage the patronage of civil society and the media.

A pragmatic approach for dynamically incorporating predicate device data in prospective diagnostic test studies

ABSTRACT Clinical studies are generally required to characterize the accuracy of new diagnostic tests. In some cases, historical data are available from a predicate device, which is directly relevant to the new test. If this data can be appropriately incorporated into the new test study design, there is an opportunity to reduce the sample size and trial duration for the new test. One approach to achieve this is the Bayesian power prior method, which allows for the historical information to be down-weighted via a power parameter. We propose a dynamic method to calculate the power parameter based on first comparing the data between the historical and new data sources using a one-sided comparison, and second mapping the comparison probability through a scaled-Weibull discount function to tune the effective sample size borrowed. This pragmatic and conservative approach is embedded in an adaptive trial framework allowing for the trial to stop early for success. An example is presented for a new test developed to detect Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus present in the nasal carriage.

Special Section Overview: Effects of Ecosystem Change on North American Percid Populations

AbstractWalleye Sander vitreus, Sauger S. canadensis, and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens (referred to as percids herein) are collectively among the most culturally and ecologically important fish species in North America. As ecosystems change in response to environmental drivers, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, there is a need to understand how percid populations respond to these changes. To address this need, a symposium was held during the 81st Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference to bring fishery scientists and managers together to describe and discuss percid population responses to ecosystem change. Prevailing symposium themes included the challenge of identifying mechanisms responsible for population‐level changes, developing strategies to adaptively manage for resilient fisheries, and consideration of scale, context, and methods when interpreting variable results. Given the uncertainty of how ecosystem changes affect percid populations, participants emphasized the importance of communicating uncertainties to stakeholders, implementing data‐driven management strategies, setting realistic goals, and revising management actions in an adaptive framework. There was universal agreement on both the challenge and necessity of facilitating constructive engagement among stakeholders in cooperative decision making. Symposium participants identified knowledge gaps and discussed future efforts to build on our current understanding of percid populations, including continuation of long‐term monitoring, improved standardization of evaluation metrics, implementing adaptive management experiments to identify causal relationships, development of more robust analytical methods, use of historical data sources, and refining techniques to realistically convey management options to stakeholders.

Evaluation of phase 2 single-arm two-stage trials in glioblastoma and brain tumor.

e14033 Background: Oncology clinical trials have shown the lowest success rate on Phase 2 and the highest median expense in a new drug to market. We aimed to assess the appropriate implementation of single-arm two-stage Phase 2 trials with other critical design issues of phase 2 single-arm trials such as selection of primary endpoint and historical control rates, and challenges of the blood-brain barrier, and to suggest guidelines to handle design issues related to single-arm Phase 2 trials in Neuro-Oncology. Methods: Two researchers searched with the key words of “phase 2 single arm two-stage design in glioblastoma” through PubMed.gov, clinicaltrials.gov, and Google Scholar to examine study designs of (i) study information, (ii) two-stage design parameters, (iii) rejection numbers and sample size for each stage. Design issues in primary endpoints, historical controls, and challenges on brain tumor trials were discussed with the effect of adaptive design on two-stage designs, and several guidelines on these issues were suggested for investigators in Phase 2 single-arm Neuro-Oncology trials. Results: Almost 50% of single-arm two-stage studies failed to provide key information related to study designs and sample size calculation, even wrong power analysis and interpretation. Response rate and progression-free survival are used as popular surrogate endpoints for overall survival. It is time to evaluate other potential endpoints like post-progress survival and hazard ratio, and usefulness of co-primary endpoint. Investigators should keep transparency of the trials by fully providing and citing historical data source. If there exist large variabilities among existing historical data, meta-analysis can be a good option to accurately estimate the historical control. Conclusions: The appropriate selection on primary endpoint(s) and historical control data, incorporation of adaptive designs if necessary, and right application of two-stage design might help overcoming the challenges on low success rates in new therapeutic oncology trials. Furthermore, the new paradigm of Phase 0 trial might be one potential tool to overcome the challenges with insufficient penetration of therapeutic agents across the blood-brain barrier and limitations in the applicability of animal models to the human condition in glioblastoma and Neuro-Oncology.

Flax, Bupleurum and Other Plants at Early Bronze Age Yenibademli Höyük (Gökçeada), NW Turkey

ABSTRACT In this study, a large number of carbonised plant remains recovered from the Early Bronze Age levels of the Yenibademli Höyük site, which is situated on Gökçeada (Imbros), north-western Turkey (Anatolia), in the north-east Aegean Sea, are examined to shed light on the plant-based agricultural economy. The archaeobotanical assemblage is predominantly composed of domesticated cereals and legumes and includes clover, grapevine, flax, Bupleurum and weedy species. Potential uses of the crop plants by the inhabitants, about 5000 years ago, are evaluated, based on archaeobotanical, ethnographic, ethnobotanical and historical data sources. The present study pays particular attention to finds of pure flax and Bupleurum seeds, recorded in abundance in recent excavations on the site. The flax seeds were discovered in container-related contexts, close to and within vessels. They are considered as stored products, probably for various purposes; potentially for cultivation to produce textile fibres and/or for use as food, medicine, animal feed supplement, or oil extraction. Many weaving tools recovered from the settlement are also considered to be for fabric production, potentially including linen textiles. Regarding Bupleurum, in the light of ancient Greek texts and ethnopharmacological information, it is hypothesised that its seeds found in a jug may represent storage for growing the plant to obtain its aerial and root parts, possibly for herbal medicine preparation or food and beverage preparation, or both.

Discovering the Legacy of Hispanic/Spanish and South American Landscapes through Geohistorical Sources: The Geographical and Topographical Relations of Philip II

Landscapes have history and memory, which are eloquent generators of testimonies and traces on the processes of the landscape that take place today, and that will take place in the future. In recent years, numerous methods of analysing land and landscape patterns have been developed and evaluated, based on the multiplicity of these type of geographic and historical data sources, which have developed the concept of the geohistorical source. The goal of these sources of information allows us to historically reconstruct landscapes. With this in mind, the basic objective of the present research is to approach a geohistorical source with a wide spatial spectrum in Europe and America: the geographical and topographical relations of Philip II. This source has been chosen for the quality, quantity, variety and systematization of the data it provides on the territory and landscape of the crown of Castile. In addition, it ended up being the model of how to obtain organized and homogeneous knowledge of a large spatial area, considering the geographical, anthropological and historical data of the different territories. This geohistorical source is reliable, because the local authorities, both secular and ecclesiastical, are questioned, as they are the ones who inhabit, use, and, at different levels, govern the territory and its people.

Historical Records Reveal Changes to the Migration Timing and Abundance of Winter Steelhead in Olympic Peninsula Rivers, Washington State, USA

AbstractWe analyzed multiple historical data sources (circa 1948–1960) to estimate migration timing and abundance of Olympic Peninsula winter steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Quillayute, Hoh, Queets, and Quinault rivers, Washington, to provide context for contemporary (circa 1980–2017) population trends. Contemporary wild winter steelhead migrations peak 1–2 months later than historical migrations, and migration timing breadth has contracted by up to 26 d (a 37% reduction of the interquartile range of the migration timing distribution). Migration timing changes coincide with an era of peak industrial forestry and introductions of early migrating hatchery winter steelhead stocks. We estimate that contemporary mean wild winter steelhead abundance has declined by 55% across populations compared to circa 1948–1960 historical means, with 1920s records suggesting declines of up to 77% in the Queets River. Migration timing shifts and the magnitude of population declines are not evident in modern fisheries monitoring records, which began around 1980. Our results demonstrate how modest extensions of the period of record (e.g., 30 years) increase the power to identify population changes that are not readily apparent from contemporary fisheries monitoring programs. Historical fisheries data can help managers to avoid the shifting baseline syndrome and provide important reference points for rebuilding population diversity and abundance.

The effect of gadolinium-based contrast-agents on automated brain atrophy measurements by FreeSurfer in patients with multiple sclerosis

ObjectiveTo determine whether reliable brain atrophy measures can be obtained from post-contrast 3D T1-weighted images in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using FreeSurfer.MethodsTwenty-two patients with MS were included, in which 3D T1-weighted MR images were obtained during the same scanner visit, with the same acquisition protocol, before and after administration of gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs). Two FreeSurfer versions (v.6.0.1 and v.7.1.1.) were applied to calculate grey matter (GM) and white matter (WM) volumes and global and regional cortical thickness. The consistency between measures obtained in pre- and post-contrast images was assessed by intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), the difference was investigated by paired t-tests, and the mean percentage increase or decrease was calculated for total WM and GM matter volume, total deep GM and thalamus volume, and mean cortical thickness.ResultsGood to excellent reliability was found between all investigated measures, with ICC ranging from 0.926 to 0.996, all p values < 0.001. GM volumes and cortical thickness measurements were significantly higher in post-contrast images by 3.1 to 17.4%, while total WM volume decreased significantly by 1.7% (all p values < 0.001).ConclusionThe consistency between values obtained from pre- and post-contrast images was excellent, suggesting it may be possible to extract reliable brain atrophy measurements from T1-weighted images acquired after administration of GBCAs, using FreeSurfer. However, absolute values were systematically different between pre- and post-contrast images, meaning that such images should not be compared directly. Potential systematic effects, possibly dependent on GBCA dose or the delay time after contrast injection, should be investigated.Trial registrationClinical trials.gov. identifier: NCT00360906.Key Points• The influence of gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs) on atrophy measurements is still largely unknown and challenges the use of a considerable source of historical and prospective real-world data.• In 22 patients with multiple sclerosis, the consistency between brain atrophy measurements obtained from pre- and post-contrast images was excellent, suggesting it may be possible to extract reliable atrophy measurements in T1-weighted images acquired after administration of GBCAs, using FreeSurfer.• Absolute values were systematically different between pre- and post-contrast images, meaning that such images should not be compared directly, and measurements extracted from certain regions (e.g., the temporal pole) should be interpreted with caution.

Late Qing Reforms of the Early 20th Century through the Eyes of Russian Diplomatic Representatives (based on the Documents from the Russian State Historical Archive)

In 1901, after the suppression of the Boxer Rebellion by the troops of eight powers and the signing of the &amp;quot;Boxer Protocol&amp;quot;, dependence of the Qing Empire on foreign powers increased, which, in turn, aggravated the growing economic and socio-political crisis in the country. The Imperial government was forced to start a series of cultural, economic, educational, military, and political reforms known as the New Policies of the late Qing dynasty. The article presents the analysis of the reports written by Russian diplomatic representatives who at that time closely monitored the events taking place in China. The article discusses the importance of referring to such source of historical data as written reports and telegrams sent from China by Russian representatives and now kept in the funds of the Russian State Historical Archive. These documents can provide scholars with a complete picture of the initial stage of the &amp;quot;the New Policies&amp;quot; and the struggle for political influence related to it, which is of great importance in understanding the complicated period of Chinese history. The documents reviewed were not only summaries of the collected and accumulated information, but also contained a deep analysis of the events taking place in China. Characteristics of high-ranking Chinese officials contained in the reports of Russian representatives are invaluable. Moreover, in these sources one can find the assessment given to the attitude of the Western powers and Japan towards the reforms started in China. The study of the archival documents brings us to the conclusion that being well-trained sinologists, Russian diplomats and representatives of the Ministry of Finance were careful observers of the Late Qing reforms and could make far-reaching forecasts.

Impact of the Cartographer’s Position and Topographic Accessibility on the Accuracy of Historical Land Use Information: Case of the Second Military Survey Maps of the Habsburg Empire

Historical maps are critical for long-term land use reconstructions; however, quantifying the uncertainty involved in comparing historical maps with recent data remains a considerable challenge. To date, many works have focused on the technical aspects of comparing historical and contemporary materials, but the potential sources of uncertainty inherent in historical data remain poorly understood. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of the topographic accessibility and cartographer’s field position on the content quality of historical Austrian second military survey maps by referring to independent census data. Our results show that the topographic accessibility and visibility from the cartographer’s surveying table points had very little impact on the map content quality and that the surveying table point locations were uniformly distributed throughout the area, regardless of the landscape conditions. These findings demonstrate that the second military survey maps can be seen as valuable and consistent historical data sources, making them especially useful for long-term land use research in Central Europe.

Combining Remote-Sensing-Derived Data and Historical Maps for Long-Term Back-Casting of Urban Extents.

Spatially explicit, fine-grained datasets describing historical urban extents are rarely available prior to the era of operational remote sensing. However, such data are necessary to better understand long-term urbanization and land development processes and for the assessment of coupled nature–human systems (e.g., the dynamics of the wildland–urban interface). Herein, we propose a framework that jointly uses remote-sensing-derived human settlement data (i.e., the Global Human Settlement Layer, GHSL) and scanned, georeferenced historical maps to automatically generate historical urban extents for the early 20th century. By applying unsupervised color space segmentation to the historical maps, spatially constrained to the urban extents derived from the GHSL, our approach generates historical settlement extents for seamless integration with the multitemporal GHSL. We apply our method to study areas in countries across four continents, and evaluate our approach against historical building density estimates from the Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the US (HISDAC-US), and against urban area estimates from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE). Our results achieve Area-under-the-Curve values > 0.9 when comparing to HISDAC-US and are largely in agreement with model-based urban areas from the HYDE database, demonstrating that the integration of remote-sensing-derived observations and historical cartographic data sources opens up new, promising avenues for assessing urbanization and long-term land cover change in countries where historical maps are available.

Colour remote sensing of the impact of artificial light at night (II): Calibration of DSLR-based images from the International Space Station

Nighttime images taken with DSLR cameras from the International Space Station (ISS) can provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal variation of artificial nighttime lighting on Earth. In particular, this is the only source of historical and current visible multispectral data across the world (DMSP/OLS and SNPP/VIIRS-DNB data are panchromatic and multispectral in the infrared but not at visible wavelengths). The ISS images require substantial processing and proper calibration to exploit intensities and ratios from the RGB channels. Here we describe the different calibration steps, addressing in turn Decodification, Linearity correction (ISO dependent), Flat field/Vignetting, Spectral characterization of the channels, Astrometric calibration/georeferencing, Photometric calibration (stars)/Radiometric correction (settings correction - by exposure time, ISO, lens transmittance, etc) and Transmittance correction (window transmittance, atmospheric correction). We provide an example of the application of this processing method to an image of Spain.

Urban economics in a historical perspective: Recovering data with machine learning

A recent literature has used a historical perspective to better understand fundamental questions of urban economics. However, a wide range of historical documents of exceptional quality remain underutilised: their use has been hampered by their original format or by the massive amount of information to be recovered. In this paper, we describe how and when the flexibility and predictive power of machine learning can help researchers exploit the potential of these historical documents. We first discuss how important questions of urban economics rely on the analysis of historical data sources and the challenges associated with transcription and harmonisation of such data. We then explain how machine learning approaches may address some of these challenges and we discuss possible applications.

Comparing fruiting phenology across two historical datasets: Thoreau's observations and herbarium specimens.

Fruiting remains under-represented in long-term phenology records, relative to leaf and flower phenology. Herbarium specimens and historical field notes can fill this gap, but selecting and synthesizing these records for modern-day comparison requires an understanding of whether different historical data sources contain similar information, and whether similar, but not equivalent, fruiting metrics are comparable with one another. For 67 fleshy-fruited plant species, we compared observations of fruiting phenology made by Henry David Thoreau in Concord, Massachusetts (1850s), with phenology data gathered from herbarium specimens collected across New England (mid-1800s to 2000s). To identify whether fruiting times and the order of fruiting among species are similar between datasets, we compared dates of first, peak and last observed fruiting (recorded by Thoreau), and earliest, mean and latest specimen (collected from herbarium records), as well as fruiting durations. On average, earliest herbarium specimen dates were earlier than first fruiting dates observed by Thoreau; mean specimen dates were similar to Thoreau's peak fruiting dates; latest specimen dates were later than Thoreau's last fruiting dates; and durations of fruiting captured by herbarium specimens were longer than durations of fruiting observed by Thoreau. All metrics of fruiting phenology except duration were significantly, positively correlated within (r: 0.69-0.88) and between (r: 0.59-0.85) datasets. Strong correlations in fruiting phenology between Thoreau's observations and data from herbaria suggest that field and herbarium methods capture similar broad-scale phenological information, including relative fruiting times among plant species in New England. Differences in the timing of first, last and duration of fruiting suggest that historical datasets collected with different methods, scales and metrics may not be comparable when exact timing is important. Researchers should strongly consider matching methodology when selecting historical records of fruiting phenology for present-day comparisons.

Performance and Promotions in an Autocracy: Evidence from Nazi Germany

Scholars of autocracies increasingly debate whether autocratic regimes promote their subordinates based on achievements, such as economic performance, and further a meritocratic system. This article argues that the extent to which autocratic regimes reward economic performance is not constant over the course of an autocratic regime's lifespan but varies depending on the strategic goals of the regime and the regime's ability to monitor its subordinates' performance. We collect a new dataset on the careers of the regional leaders of the German Nazi Party, the Gauleiters, from 1936 to 1944, and a wealth of historical data sources from the regime. Using this, we show that better regional economic performance increased the chance of receiving a promotion before the outbreak of World War II but not after.

Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations

Abstract. The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastal risks at locations affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) are often based solely on the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and the random nature of TCs, the assumption that a hypothetical TC could hit a neighboring area with equal likelihood to past events can potentially lead to over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highly flexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an empirical track model based on Markov chains and can simulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used to determine the wind extremes, and the output can be used for the reliable assessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico show that TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.

Оцінювання кліометричних характеристик консолідованих статистичних даних

Розглянуто нові концептуальні підходи до використання великих масивів даних у соціогуманітарних дослідженнях і проаналізовано сучасні напрями їх використання у науково-дослідній діяльності гуманітарного спрямування. Обґрунтовано актуальність використання технологій Big Data в історичних наукових дослідженнях і використання таких технологій для побудови науково-дослідних кластерів з метою ефективного дослідження й опрацювання масових історичних джерел, а саме зведених статистичних даних. Опрацьовано зведені статистичні дані індустріального розвитку, перепису населення та експертного оцінювання соціо-економічного і демографічного розвитку Сполучених Штатів Америки та Української Радянської Соціалістичної Республіки у 1970-1980-х роках. Апробовано кількісний метод для отримання консолідованої статистики, що дасть змогу виявити особливості статистичної сукупності загалом і в окремих її компонентах, показати регулярність досліджуваних соціально-економічних явищ процесів. Оцінено вагомість консолідованих статистичних даних, опублікованих на вітчизняних та іноземних ресурсах для їх подальшого використання в історичних дослідженнях. Подано у форматі таблиці, змодельовано кліометричні характеристики консолідованих статистичних даних розвитку Сполучених Штатів Америки та України у 1970-х та у 1980-х роках. Обґрунтовано, що кліометричні характеристики консолідованої статистики розвитку Сполучених Штатів Америки та Української Радянської Соціалістичної Республіки у 1970-1980-х роках, які отримують за допомогою моделювання даних економічного розвитку, даних перепису населення, даних національного доходу та зайнятості, експертного оцінювання, можна використати як нове джерело для вивчення актуального історичного періоду.

Orthocorrection of KH-5 ARGON Satellite Imagery of Aral Sea

Declassified Intelligence Satellite Imagery is a unique source of historical environmental data. Three consecutive and overlapping images of the ARGON, the first dedicated mapping mission from 1962 depicting the surrounding of the Aral Sea were orthocorrected using Ground Control Points. As ARGON mission had a frame type camera, a least squares estimation of exterior orientation parameters were estimated using space resection. A modified space resection algorithm was used to estimate (beside the exterior orientation) the camera principal point coordinates and lens distortion correction coefficients. The overall accuracy of the orthocorrected images are in good accordance with the results of other authors.

A framework for the risk prediction of avian influenza occurrence: An Indonesian case study.

Avian influenza viruses can cause economically devastating diseases in poultry and have the potential for zoonotic transmission. To mitigate the consequences of avian influenza, disease prediction systems have become increasingly important. In this study, we have proposed a framework for the prediction of the occurrence and spread of avian influenza events in a geographical area. The application of the proposed framework was examined in an Indonesian case study. An extensive list of historical data sources containing disease predictors and target variables was used to build spatiotemporal and transactional datasets. To combine disparate sources, data rows were scaled to a temporal scale of 1-week and a spatial scale of 1-degree × 1-degree cells. Given the constructed datasets, underlying patterns in the form of rules explaining the risk of occurrence and spread of avian influenza were discovered. The created rules were combined and ordered based on their importance and then stored in a knowledge base. The results suggested that the proposed framework could act as a tool to gain a broad understanding of the drivers of avian influenza epidemics and may facilitate the prediction of future disease events.