Abstract. There is unequivocal evidence that climate change will change the risk profile of dams, which are critical pieces of infrastructure that safeguard water supply and provide flood mitigation for populated areas. A key input to assessing risks to dam safety is a probabilistic estimate of extreme flood magnitudes with the potential to overtop dams. However, few studies have attempted to consider climate change in such estimates due to the challenges involved. A recent examination of contemporary scientific findings pertinent to climate change impacts on the probability of dam overtopping floods has informed the projection of estimates made here. We project changes in the exceedance probabilities of overtopping floods, namely floods that exceed the dam crest flood, for 18 large dams in Australia under a range of global warming assumptions. Explicit consideration is given to the impacts of climate change on rainfall depth, rainfall temporal pattern, and rainfall losses resulting from changes in antecedent catchment wetness. We used event-based flood modelling and Monte Carlo sampling to appropriately represent the range of uncertainties associated with projecting estimates of extreme flood quantiles. The analysis is dependent on the degree of global warming, which allows results to be interpreted in terms of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and future time horizons. Our results are consistent with general expectations that the probability of dam overtopping floods will increase with global warming. Specifically, we found that increases in rainfall depth had the largest impact for all 18 dams under climate change. Under 4 °C of global warming, which approximates conditions towards the end of this century under a high emissions scenario, the probability of overtopping floods was between 2.4–17 times that of historical conditions for the dams investigated. We also found that the overtopping probability has more than doubled compared to the historical baseline for four of the dams investigated here as a result of global warming that has already occurred.

The Pantanal, considered the world’s largest tropical wetland, is increasingly threatened by intensifying droughts driven by climate variability and climate change. Using Multi-Source Weather data (MSWX), and bias-corrected multi-model means from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for the years 1980–2100, we assessed historical and future drought conditions under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the Pantanal. Drought conditions were identified through the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) across multiple timescales, and with different reference periods. A historical analysis revealed a significant drying trend, culminating in the extreme droughts of 2019/2020 and 2023/24. Future projections indicate a dual pressure of declining precipitation and rising temperatures, intensifying the severity of dry conditions. By the late 21st century, SSP5-8.5 shows persistent, severe multi-year droughts, while SSP2-4.5 projects more variable but still intensifying dry spells. The SPEI highlights stronger drying than the SPI, underscoring the growing role of evaporative demand, which was confirmed through risk ratios for drought occurrence across temperature anomaly bins. These results offer multi-scalar insights into drought dynamics across the Pantanal wetland, with critical implications for biodiversity, water resources, and wildfire risk. Thus, they emphasise the urgency of adaptive management strategies to preserve ecosystem integrity under a warmer, drier future climate.

This essay will focus on the theoretical and political importance of anti-caste writings, taking Dalit feminist author Baby Kamble’s The Prisons We Broke (2009). It proposes that such Dalit writings need to be considered manifestos as they have an important role in advancing manuski or the human rights of Dalits. Anti-caste literary writings are critical foundations of the field of Dalit studies and enable Dalit theory to articulate and uphold the historical and contemporary conditions of Dalits’ oppression. Such manifestoes are thus documents for a radical future that shape the field of social studies, political theories, and social movements.

The differences in the forms of land rent in Poland and Ukraine are due to the specifics of the historical development of agrarian relations, the level of institutional support, and the condition of the land market in each country. The basis for this substantive analysis was the literature on the subject, primarily concerning the issue of land rent from a historical and contemporary perspective. Relevant legal acts and statistical data characterizing agriculture in the analyzed countries were also used. The aim of the conducted research and analysis was to identify and characterize the types of land rent in Poland and Ukraine. It was found that there are similarities and differences in the occurrence and perception of land rent between the analyzed countries. Not all types of land rent identified in Polish agriculture occur in Ukraine. In addition, those identified in Ukrainian agriculture are not always reflected in the same way in Polish conditions. This is related, among other things, to the historical conditions of the established agricultural system and Ukraine’s remaining outside the European Union. The comparative analysis of land rent types in Poland and Ukraine indicates a shared economic nature but significant differences in the mechanisms of their formation and distribution. Future research on land rents in Poland and Ukraine should be supported by empirical research and comparative analysis of the specific effects of the existence of individual types of rents.

Many plant species alter both the timing and duration of their flowering in response to changing climate and often differ with respect to the magnitudes or directions of their phenological responses to climate changes. These shifts may have cumulative effects on the diversity of species simultaneously in flower throughout a given flowering season, resulting in periods of disproportionately high or low species richness of actively flowering community members relative to historical conditions. Although the potential for such changes to occur is well appreciated, few studies have assessed how climate trends have affected patterns of co-flowering synchrony due to a scarcity of long-term datasets documenting flowering duration across species in a community. In this study, we leveraged 1,908,706 plant specimens collected in flower to model the effects of warming throughout the past century on the daily species richness of actively flowering species by developing species-specific phenoclimate models for 1848 plant species inhabiting 16 well-documented plant communities across California. These communities are located across a variety of ecoregions, ranging from coastal marshes and grasslands to deserts, chaparral shrublands, and coniferous forests. The recurring patterns in the modeled community-level flowering displays indicate that recent warming has consistently shortened the period during which many species flower concurrently, and that the bloom season has advanced by nearly 5 days on average. Accordingly, within every flora, recent warming was predicted to increase the daily species richness of flowers early in the local growing season, with corresponding reductions in species richness of flowers later in the growing season. Notably, patterns of change in community-level bloom displays were driven primarily by differences among species in the timing of flowering onset, as termination dates tended to advance in unison with onset dates, resulting in minor changes to flowering duration among species.

Centennial changes in forest cover and water yield in a flatwoods watershed.

In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, Vietnam experienced a turbulent period with the prolonged Trinh-Nguyen civil war, which divided the country and created many regional differences. After Gia Long unified the country, the Nguyen Dynasty faced the task of consolidating the government and stabilizing society. Inheriting his father, Minh Mang continued to perfect the administrative apparatus, implementing many policies to unify and develop the country. In the world context at that time, Western capitalism was rising strongly, European countries were stepping up their colonial invasion in Asia, putting Eastern countries, including Vietnam, at risk of being threatened. In that situation, Minh Mang promoted orthodox Confucianism, valuing morality, discipline and humanity as the foundation for protecting social order and preserving national identity. Therefore, Minh Mang's philosophy of life both reflected the internal requirements of national consolidation after unification and was influenced by the changing world context and the pressure of colonialism, expressing a profound and consistent philosophy of life in the goal of maintaining national stability and social stability.

Abstract Background Large, severe fires are increasing throughout frequent-fire forests of the western United States due to warming climatic conditions, as well as legacies of early twentieth century land-use practices and anthropogenic fire exclusion. Resource objective (RO) wildfires—where naturally ignited wildfires are allowed to burn to accomplish management objectives—are increasingly accepted due to relatively low cost and flexibility on lands where mechanical treatments are not allowed (e.g., designated wilderness) or economically feasible. We previously implemented a field study across a portion of the Mount Trumbull Wilderness to identify differences between historical (ca. 1870) and contemporary (1999) forest structural conditions following 100 + years of fire exclusion. The study area subsequently experienced two RO wildfires (2012 and 2019), which presented an opportunity to (1) assess how closely post-wildfire (2023) conditions approximated historical forest conditions and (2) evaluate how RO fires influenced patterns of tree mortality and regeneration. Results Reconstructed forest structure was made up of open stand conditions (density: 62 trees ha −1 ; basal area: 9 m 2 ha −1 ) with large ponderosa pines (quadratic mean diameter: 42 cm). By 1999, the site was dominated by closed-canopy stands with many small-diameter trees. In 2023, following the two RO wildfires, tree density, basal area, and canopy cover were significantly reduced (20–50%), and tree size significantly increased. Ponderosa pine regeneration density declined relative to pre-fire levels, whereas regeneration of sprouting hardwood species increased. About half of the old trees (i.e., pre-dating ca. 1870) that were alive in 1999 died by the end of the study period, likely due to effects of fire-caused injury and drought. High-severity patch sizes in each fire were relatively small (6.2–46.6 ha) and within the historical range of variability for southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems. The 2012 fire reduced remotely sensed fire severity in 2019. Conclusions Overall, RO fires shifted forest structure in a remote wilderness area toward open conditions that were historically present at the site, and likely reduced vulnerability to severe fire in the future. However, tree density remained six times higher than historical levels, and managers should consider allowing future RO wildfires to burn within the wilderness to further reduce tree density and accomplish ecological restoration goals.

This paper explores the intricate relationship between economic conditions and educational development in the Ajmer-Merwara region of Rajaputana during the colonial era. By examining historical data and records, this study aims to understand how economic factors influenced educational policies, access, and outcomes in this unique region administered directly by the British. The paper highlights the challenges and opportunities that arose from the economic environment and their lasting impact on the educational landscape. Objectives To examine the historical economic conditions of Ajmer-Merwara. To analyse the impact of these conditions on the region's educational development. To identify key factors that facilitated or hindered educational progress in response to economic changes.

ABSTRACT With novel ocean conditions rapidly appearing as the result of climate change, basing decisions about fisheries and other ocean activities on historical conditions is no longer tenable. There is instead a widespread need for shifting ecological baselines to more effectively guide decisions into the future. What has not been as widely recognised is that the relevant timescales differ substantially across ocean‐related decisions, from lead times of hours to decades depending on the decision being made, and that this range necessitates a matching range of ecological forecast products across similar timescales. At the moment, a predictability gap exists at intermediate timescales, from multi‐annual to multi‐decadal forecasts. Because most fisheries and many other ocean activities rely on biological conditions like fish abundance or distribution, the ecological inertia of organismal growth, generational turnover, movement, and food web dynamics can help push ecological forecasts further across this gap. To realise this potential for more effective and usable ecological forecasts, coordinated research and implementation at the intersection of biology, climate science, social science, and decision‐making is needed. These efforts will be critical for forecasting shifting ecosystem baselines and sustaining fisheries, ocean ecosystems, and the ocean economy in the coming decades of rapid change.

Abstract This article examines how the past half-century’s three most important events in Norway’s modern immigration history – all interpreted by contemporaries as ‘problems’ or ‘crises’ – have shaped norms and policy in the field of Norwegian migration legislation. These events – namely, the arrival of the first labour migrants from the Global South to Norway in the late 1960s and early 1970s; the influx of refugees from the conflict in Bosnia in the first half of the 1990s; and refugee arrivals during the 2015–2016 European migrant crisis – all brought shifts towards increased restrictiveness, particularly in relation to migrant returns. Taking up the call to examine how policy norms are socially constructed on the basis of specific historical conditions, this cross-disciplinary article employs a critical and constructivist stance and draws on sociological theory and terminology to show how the ‘problem’ and ‘crisis’ labels informed the outcomes at each juncture.

Different Types of Household Vocabulary in the English Language and Their Structural Analysis Summary The vocabulary of a language consists of numerous words that develop according to social and historical conditions. Household vocabulary is studied through thematic and lexical-semantic classifications and reflects national and cultural features. English household vocabulary includes simple, derived, and compound words. New words arise from both internal and external sources and integrate into the lexicon. Household words are key lexical units expressing a people’s customs and culture. Keywords: Language vocabulary, household lexicon, lexical-semantic classification, new words, national culture

Walter Benjamin’s question about the historical conditions of perception takes on renewed urgency in a moment defined by political extremisms that rely on algorithmic modalities of image distribution. From an Althusserian perspective attentive to the ideological and subjective dimensions of the platformization of social life, this article advances the hypothesis that social media reinforces a tautological mode of organizing the sensible. This mode narrows subjective fields of vision and reshapes the very scene of political interlocution. The argument develops in three sections. The first defines the spatio-temporal dispositif of platformized images, drawing on Rancière’s critique of the dilemma between spectator passivity and activity. The second argues that the algorithmic montage of the visible is the cornerstone of a strategy for controlling subjective time, one that depends on scrolling as a practice of reception that produces a specific effect on subjects’ ideological and imaginary relation to the world. The third examines how trolling contributes to radicalized variants of neoliberalism. Trolls trigger a decentralization of punitivism and transform the structures of resentment through the evaluative stance promoted by platforms. The conclusion contends that the tautological shock of algorithmic montage shapes the nexus between communication and culture, extending into the formation of subjectivities. The very stage on which political interlocution unfolds is displaced toward tautology, leveling out the diverse and contradictory experiences of inhabiting a shared historical time.

The purpose of this article is to present the results of the development of educational activities in the national libraries of the Altai, Khakassia, Tyva, Buryatia, and Sakha (Yakutia) republics. The article examines the key prerequisites, factors, and conditions that have influenced the formation of libraries as centers of culture, education, and preservation of national heritage. It also covers the history, traditions, and innovations of the educational mission of regional national libraries.

Environmental factors, including climatic and habitat conditions, not only critically sustain ecosystem functioning and community stability but also serve as key determinants of species distributions. Research on the instant effects of environmental factors impacts remains limited. Although traditional methods, such as species distribution model, are commonly applied to assess environmental effects, they frequently overlook interspecific interactions that may determine distribution patterns. In this study, we employed a joint species distribution model and a generalized additive model to analyze the lagged responses of 2022-2023 geographic distribution patterns to historical habitat conditions (2001-2019) in four widespread high-elevation ungulates (Equus kiang, Pantholops hodgsonii, Procapra picticaudata, and Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau, defining this delayed response of animal distributions to environmental changes as the distribution lag effect (DLE). Our analysis revealed that while climate strongly influenced species distributions, habitat change drove most observed delays in distribution responses. In terms of community ecology, dispersed communities exhibited shorter time lags than concentrated groups. Analyses of lag duration revealed a 5-6-year DLE in high-altitude ungulate distributions. Our results provide valuable insights into sustainable alpine steppe management by highlighting the importance of maintaining habitat quality and mitigating resource competition over time. Furthermore, it offers guidance for the long-term conservation of high-altitude ungulate species.

Climate change will alter ecological dynamics, affecting the relative abundance of species. A primary challenge is whether and how to modify natural resource management practices to address these changes. We explored a model of a harvested fish population experiencing climate-driven changes in demography, finding that climate impacts impose a choice between management strategies that favor fishery yield or population biomass but not both. When climate caused a population’s carrying capacity to increase, or its productivity to decrease, a climate adaptive strategy relying upon this updated information maintained higher population biomass but produced similar or lower yield than fixed management pegged to historical conditions. In contrast, when climate caused a population’s carrying capacity to decrease, or its productivity to increase, a climate adaptive strategy produced greater yield but maintained lower population biomass. Both strategies prevented a population from becoming overfished (too small to achieve maximum yield), but the fixed management strategy could impose more excessive annual harvest rates (overfishing). These insights suggest climate adaptive management may not always outperform a fixed strategy. Yet in U.S. fisheries we found routine assessment of population status modifies demographic parameters, implicitly shifting management reference points that affect fishery yield and population biomass. Participatory processes can illuminate these impacts, creating opportunities to co-develop weightings for conservation and harvest objectives.

Scientific discussions about the spread of the Russian language in Central Asia in the pre-revolutionary period have acquired a noticeable politicized character in the last three decades. The “pendulum effect” in the assessment of the historical past, expressed in the transition from Soviet idealization to national criticism during the period of independent states, does not allow us to show the objective role of the Russian language in the political, economic and social life of Turkestan in the late 19th – early 20th centuries. A one-sided analysis creates difficulties in the implementation of a language strategy in modern Uzbekistan, where, in accordance with the Law “On the State Language”, all peoples of the republic have equal rights and opportunities. The purpose of this article is an objective and comprehensive analysis of the process of integration of the Russian language into all spheres of life of Uzbek society at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, which laid the foundation for large-scale processes in Soviet times. The contextualization method allows us to comprehensively reveal the historical, social and economic conditions for the development of language processes in a specific chronological period associated with the political tasks of the Russian state to develop the Turkestan region, which included the territory of modern Uzbekistan. On this basis, a number of discussion questions have been formulated related to the extent to which historical experience can be in demand at the present stage.

The article presents the main results of a study on forest-steppe Saltovo-Mayaki hillforts, whose defensive structures show no evidence of the use of building stone or its substitute, fired brick, and feature only wood-and-earth fortifications. An analysis of their locations reveals certain areas where they quantitatively predominate or are the sole type compared to those with masonry defensive structures. The article presents various viewpoints of researchers and the authors' explanations regarding the origins of such construction and the role of hillforts with wood-and-earth fortifications, as well as the purpose of their construction. The aim of the article is to highlight the main results of the study of forest-steppe Saltovo-Mayaki hillforts and to summarize the current state of knowledge about them. The authors also intended to explain the role of these hillforts in the forest-steppe region, which was settled by the carriers of the Saltovo-Mayaki cultural and historical community, based on the current state of knowledge about this group of sites. The methodological basis of the study was the principles of objectivity, historicism, and systematic analysis, using general scientific methods to study phenomena in specific historical conditions. The analysis of natural and geographical conditions helped to determine the main available building materials used by ancient builders. Historical geography and geology data were used to identify locations with a concentration of defensive structures made from different types of building materials. Scientific novelty of the publication. For the first time, forest-steppe Saltovo-Mayaki hillforts with exclusively wood-and-earth defensive structures have been subjected to a specialized comprehensive analysis. The overall state of their research has been revealed, and possible explanations for this type of defensive architecture are provided. Conclusions. Due to their solitary and sporadic location across the forest-steppe (in the adjacent zone of the middle course of the Seversky Donets River, they are, according to current data, the exclusive type) against the backdrop of the general cartography of Saltovo-Mayaki forest-steppe fortifications, wood-and-earth forest-steppe Saltovo-Mayaki hillforts are most likely shelter sites for the Saltovo-Mayaki population during the initial (more probable) or final stages of their stay in the colonization zone. This may also indicate the limited resources of certain communities in the specified territory, which could not afford to allocate significant labor. However, it is not excluded that such fortifications could have been considered sufficient for the Oskil microregion in the upper reaches of the river, where a large ferrous metallurgy center was archaeologically discovered. Here, such hillforts predominate. Wood-and-earth fortifications were attempted to be created with minimal costs, using the most accessible building materials, which were wood and soil excavated during the digging of moats.

The article presents a comparison of American policies towards Syria and Ukraine, which allows us to see how strategic, security, energy and ideological motives determine Washington’s priorities in crisis situations. Both cases reflect the dynamics of great power rivalry, the transformation of security environments and the need for the United States to balance the protection of its own national interests and the promotion of the values of democracy and international law. The aim of the article is to study and highlight the complex of strategic, security, energy and ideological motives of American policies towards Syria and Ukraine, which determine the foreign policy course of the United States in both regions. The source base of this scientific article is printed materials. The methodological basis of the study is the principles of objectivity, historicism and systematicity, which are implemented through the use of general scientific methods of analysis, synthesis and generalization. The research was carried out in the unity of logical and historical approaches, taking into account specific historical conditions, as well as through a consistent transition from the concrete to the abstract and vice versa, which allows for a comprehensive study of the phenomena under study. Scientific novelty of the publication. The novelty of the article lies in a comprehensive comparative analysis of American policy towards Syria and Ukraine, which allows for the first time to summarize the strategic, security, energy and ideological motives of the United States in two different regions in a single study. The study demonstrates how the United States adapts its foreign policy instruments to specific conditions, combining diplomatic, military and economic means of influence. In addition, the work highlights the relationship between energy security and support for democracy. The novelty also lies in the inclusion of the latest events of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the development of the situation in Syria in the context of modern global trends in international relations. Conclusions. American policy towards Syria and Ukraine reflects the desire of the United States to remain a key player in the international arena, to ensure global and regional stability, and to promote its own interests, adapting methods of influence to the specifics of each region. In Syria, the emphasis is on the fight against terrorism and control over energy resources, while in Ukraine – on the protection of democracy, integration into European structures and energy security. These approaches indicate a high level of strategic planning and the ability of American diplomacy and security structures to respond to various challenges of the modern world, taking into account both regional and global aspects of international relations.

ABSTRACT This study quantifies hydropower generation under historical and future climatic conditions, to examine the impact of climate change on hydropower projects, focusing on Kankai River basin. We used projected temperature and precipitation data from the six GCMs under CMIP6 scenarios after removing the biases through linear scaling which were forced into the well calibrated and validated SWAT model to obtain the streamflow projections based on which future hydropower generation was analyzed. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation up to 42.11% in SSP 585 and both maximum and minimum temperatures rising up to 29.78% in SSP 585 by the end of the century compared to baseline. The streamflow illustrates the increasing trend marking the typical South Asian climate of monsoon peak flow with a substantial rise in the far-future of SSP 585. The analysis of power generation of the three distinct hydropower projects in the basin showed a decrease in average annual energy generation in the near future while an expected increase in the mid-future and far-future with a more pronounced increase in the far-future of SSP 585. The inter-annual fluctuations raise challenges in the operations and energy supply-demand balance from run-of-the-river projects necessitating strategic planning sustainable energy management.