High-tech Exports Research Articles

Chinese High-Tech Export Performance: Effects of Intellectual Capital Mediated by Dynamic and Risk Management Capabilities

This study analyzed the effect of intellectual capital on Chinese exporters’ performance and the joint mediating effect of two-way capabilities to explain the relationships. With a sample of 197 firms responsible for exporting Chinese high-tech products, we empirically evaluated higher-order constructs in a partial least squares structural equation model using a two-stage approach. The results show that firms’ intellectual capital generates dynamic capabilities, which lead human, structural, and relational capital to improve overseas export performance. Furthermore, the study shows risk management capability also has a complementary mediating role in improving overseas export performance. These findings point to the significant role of two-way capabilities, clarifying how risk management capabilities can be used to enhance export performance and highlighting the role of dynamic capabilities in leveraging export performance. Our findings hold managerial implications on how Chinese high-tech exporting businesses adapt to fast-changing environments.

Розвиток машинобудування в Україні: тенденції і загрози

The article provides a comprehensive scientific and analytical justification of the causes and consequences of problematic functioning of machine-building industries in Ukraine. The negative impact of economic globalization (the manifestations of which were the expansion of free trade zones, that is, the reduction or abolition of tariff and non-tariff barriers between countries, the promotion of offshoring and the increase of tolling operations) on the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the activity of domestic machine-building enterprises, in particular: gross added value, production, export and import. The destructive transformation of the structure of the Ukrainian machine-building industry since 2014 in terms of machine-building industries is shown. The sharp reduction (almost by 50%) of high-tech exports from Ukraine and, at the same time, the growth of the share of products manufactured on the basis of raw materials are emphasized. A comparative (with some EU countries) assessment of investment and innovation processes in Ukrainian engineering was carried out, in particular, the technological structure of capital investments, production and export of innovative engineering products were investigated. The gradual transformation of the Ukrainian engineering industry from an integral strategic sector of the national economy to separate segments of the supply of intermediate consumption products and services to foreign markets has been established. It has been empirically proven that a direct consequence of the negative trends in the development of domestic machine-building industries was the deterioration of socio-economic indicators, in particular, a reduction in employment, a decrease in the level of labor productivity, and a decrease in wages. The urgent need for active actions of the state in the direction of ensuring the development of mechanical engineering in Ukraine (primarily its defense segment) in order to counteract the further "agrarianization" of the national economy, and instead to rebuild it on the basis of neo-industrialization and technological self-sufficiency, is substantiated.

Comparative assessment system of r&d indicators

This article is part of a general study of the numerical assessment of the country's scientific and technical development impact on its economic growth. It is included in its part, which considers the analysis of the production and the export of high-tech products dynamics in different world countries. This will give Ukraine the opportunity to use certain positive experiences and take into account negative trends in the process of restoring its own economy in the post-war period. The purpose of the article is to study the possibilities of applying the author's methodology «estimation of speed and acceleration» to conduct a comparative analysis of development indicators of the scientific and technical activity sphere. Research methodology. As a state regulation tool in the field of innovative, scientific and technical development, the author's methodology for analyzing the dynamics of scientific and technical activity indicators was proposed. It is proposed to use the phase portrait for comparisons of the indicators of different countries, and the economic content of its components is revealed. Research results. In the work, a comparative assessment of the high-tech products export was carried out, as one of the most important indicators of the scientific and technical potential realization in Ukraine, Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania for 2009–2020. The internal character following types of the high-tech export dynamics have been determined: smooth, sharp, spiral. Positive features in the dynamics of high-tech products export from Poland and the Czech Republic were noted, which should become benchmarks for Ukraine. It was established that in 2009, Ukraine was significantly ahead of Lithuania in the volume of export of high-tech products, and in 2021, it will be significantly behind, which is the result of a mistaken domestic science and technology policy. It is the result of an erroneous domestic research and development policy associated with the underestimation of the scientific and technical sphere as an important and necessary productive force of the country's economy and the connection with this insufficient level of its financing and stimulation for the entire period of country independence. The obtained study results will ensure the implementation of an effective state policy for the Ukraine economy recovery in the post-war period.

Моделирование внешнеторговых потоков высокотехнологичной продукции макрорегиона в условиях роста торговых барьеров

Current geopolitical situation requires improving a methodology for researching, planning and managing foreign economic activity of Russian regions. Imposed sanctions changed the development of Russian foreign trade, contributing to the transformation of foreign economic activity. The study aims to model high-tech trade flows of the Ural macroregion, considering trade barriers, as well as to determine new international trade boundaries and emerging high-tech trade flows. The Ural Federal District was selected for study due to its unique experience in the development of international trade and economic relations, especially in terms of Russian high-tech exports and imports. The gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop was used to assess changes in trade with friendly and unfriendly countries. As the values of trade barriers and the structure of trade flows in the medium term were assumed stable, the traditional gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop was modified to predict the redistribution of trade flows between Russia and friendly and unfriendly countries in conditions of increasing trade barriers with the latter. The modified gravity model was applied to predict changes in trade flows for different groups of high-tech products. A growth of trade barriers will cause an increase in trade flows between Russia and friendly countries and a decrease in trade with unfriendly countries. For any elasticity, as trade barriers increase, exports to unfriendly countries decline more than imports from them, and exports to friendly countries grow more slowly than imports. The resulting models and findings can be used by federal and regional authorities to improve spatial, scientific and technological development policies of Russia, as well as to adjust foreign economic strategies in regions of the Urals Federal District.

Growth of India’s High-tech Exports: Do the Import of Intermediate Goods and Inward FDI promote India’s High-tech Exports?

Growth of India’s High-tech Exports: Do the Import of Intermediate Goods and Inward FDI promote India’s High-tech Exports?

ВЛИЯНИЕ САНКЦИОННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ СТРАН ЗАПАДА НА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ

The relevance of the study of the impact of Western sanctions on the socio-economic development of Russian regions as an information basis for making managerial decisions to ensure the sustainable functioning and development of the Russian Federation in the short and medium term is substantiated. The most sensitive sanctions of Western countries for the development of the industrial sector of the economy of the Republic of Bashkortostan are highlighted, taking into account the structure of the economy of the republic with a predominance of oil production, oil refining industry and petrochemistry. A methodological approach to the rating assessment of the impact of the sanctions policy of Western countries on the level of socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation for the 1st half of 2022, including a system of indicators of economic, social, financial and demographic development, has been developed and tested. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to identify regions that have been able to adapt to the sanctions and use them to increase the level of socio-economic development in order to replicate their positive experience in other regions of Russia, as well as to identify the regions most affected by the sanctions to develop measures for their state support. The typologization of the regions of Russia according to their sensitivity to the sanctions of Western countries has been carried out, with the allocation of the most and least affected regions of the country by sanctions. The rating positions of the Republic of Bashkortostan on sensitivity to Western sanctions have been determined, highlighting the key problems that they may face in the medium term in the conditions of economic war carried out by countries of the world "unfriendly" to Russia in response to a special military operation in Ukraine. A set of measures is proposed aimed at smoothing the negative effects of the sanctions policy of Western countries, as well as the use of additional opportunities in terms of the development of the industrial sector of the economy of the Republic of Bashkortostan in the areas of import substitution, support for high-tech exports, reducing dependence on imported equipment and components, and promoting innovative development. The results of the study were reported at the XIV International scientific and practical conference: "Innovative technologies for managing the socio-economic development of the regions of Russia", October 20-21, 2022, ISEI UFIC RAS, Ufa. The article may be of interest to researchers dealing with the impact of the sanctions policy of Western countries on the socio-economic development of Russian regions, and territorial administration bodies responsible for making managerial decisions in the field of anti-sanctions policy.

Russian high-tech exports To the EAEU and BRICS countries and the potential to enter new commodity markets

Today the basis of exports from Russia are goods of the fuel and energy group. However, due to the instability of prices in the oil and gas markets, as well as the spreading policy of introducing environmentally friendly energy sources around the world, there is a need to diversify Russian exports and shift them towards non-commodity goods. The key task set by the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin before the Government of the Russian Federation is to ensure a breakthrough growth in the export of goods with high added value, including the achievement by 2030 of 70% of the share of non-primary sector goods in total exports from Russia. In this article, the author considers the top 20 groups of high value added goods exported by Russia to the world market, separately considers the lists of high value products supplied to the EAEU and BRICS countries, compares Russia's global exports with supplies to the EAEU and BRICS countries. By applying the Balassa index, an assessment of the comparative advantage of Russia in terms of commodity items, identified by the author as a priority for the initial release to new markets, is given. Based on the data obtained, the author draws conclusions about the prospects for the export of upper value added goods to new markets in Russia, including the identification of specific product groups, the export of which can be expanded.

Evaluating the Economic and Environmental Repercussions of the Price Paradox in Natural Resource Commodities: Market Drivers and Potential Challenges for Sustainable Development

The natural resource commodity price paradox is a phenomenon that has been observed in the past. The price of a commodity constantly and unpredictably fluctuates. This phenomenon makes it difficult for businesses to plan for future needs and investments. This study examined the relationship between natural resource commodity prices, renewable energy demand, economic growth, high-technology exports, inbound FDI, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Pakistan, using the 1975 to 2020 time period. The robust least squares (RLS) regression results showed that natural resource commodity prices and economic growth increased GHG emissions. In contrast, there was a negative relationship between renewable energy demand (and high-tech exports) and GHG emissions in Pakistan. The results verified the resource price curse hypothesis and growth-associated emissions in a country. The Granger causality estimates showed the unidirectional relationship of renewable energy consumption with GHG emissions, natural resource pricing, and inbound FDI. Further, high-technology exports Granger caused GHG emissions and GDP per capita. The results verified the country’s growth-led green energy sources and inbound FDI, resource pricing-led inbound FDI, and GHG emissions-led resource pricing. The impulse response function suggested that resource commodity pricing and the country’s economic growth will likely increase GHG emissions in the next ten years. At the same time, green energy demand, technological advancements, and sustainable investment in cleaner production would help decrease GHG emissions over time. The variance decomposition analysis suggested that technology advancements would likely have greater variance shock on GHG emissions, followed by commodity resource pricing and green energy demand. The resource price paradox hampers economic and environmental outcomes, which need to be resolved through advancement in cleaner production technologies, adoption of green energy demand, and stabilization of resource commodity pricing that helps to move forward toward the sustainable development of the country.

RESEARCH COOPERATION OF THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES: OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT

The article is devoted to the research and innovation potential of the Visegrad countries. The main components of innovative development, its dynamics and existing problems are analyzed, among which difficulties with human resources, financing, intellectual property are relevant. Main directions of specialization of the Visegrad research & development sector, including technical and natural sciences, are shown. International cooperation is considered from the point of view of migration of scientific personnel, joint projects, key partner countries. Research cooperation within the Visegrad Group is evaluated. The importance of pan-European financing for the development of the research and innovation potential of the «four» members is considered. Special attention is paid to the peculiarities, structure and dynamic of high-tech export of the Visegrad countries. The analysis carried out allows us to conclude that the Czech Republic will preserve its leading position in the innovation sector in the Group. In turn Hungary due to the existing restriction most likely will not be able to reach the Czech level in the near future. Lagging behind Slovakia and Poland will develop within the framework of different trends: Slovakia – oriented to the Visegrad region, Poland – in more diversified directions.

Policy of the transitıon from agricultural to high-tech export in conditions of permanent military threat: Israeli experience for Ukraine

The Russian-Ukrainian war causes the loss of a significant part of Ukraine's production and raw and food export potential, which creates the risk of economic insecurity in the long run. At the same time, the new challenges create favourable conditions and opportunities for restructuring the national economy in the direction of developing high-tech areas and increasing the science-intensiveness of traditional industries. Today, the question is to choose the most effective institutional and economic mechanism for such a transformation, as exemplified by the State of Israel. The article is devoted to the research of the Israeli practice of transition to high-tech production and the formation of an innovative export-oriented economy. The author aims to clarify the conditions, factors, mechanisms, and tools for the successful economic transformation of Israel in terms of the possibility of implementing the acquired historical experience in Ukrainian realities. The methodology is based on a systematic approach, which considers the economic transformation of Israel as a set of processes and systems of closely interrelated elements (historical conditions, institutional factors, public policy, available resources, economic potential, etc.). It is necessary to apply the historical-evolutionary approach to identify the features and trends of the country's transition from traditional spheres of production and export to high-tech. In this context, comparative-historical analyse is used. The precondition for the transition of the State of Israel to high-tech production and exports was the development of powerful science-intensive complexes of its own agricultural and defence production through targeted public and private investment, subsidies and loans to producers, stimulating education and research, a unique system of public-private partnership (so-called "gold triangle"). It is determined that the use of defence technologies in production of the double-purpose products (in space, aviation, cybersecurity spheres), the flow of intellectual capital, and the formed research base became the basis for the development of pharmaceuticals, electronics, microelectronics, computer hardware, and software, etc. The key role in the Israeli transition to high-tech production and exports was played by state support policy implemented by grant funding instruments for education and R&D, venture capital incentive programs, tax and credit benefits for small and medium businesses, an extensive system of institutional assistance, and effective legal regulation of the business environment for the protection of intellectual property rights, granting special privileges, simplifying the procedure of repatriation of profits, ensuring high-quality products, etc. The policy of "arms diplomacy", trade liberalization, tax, credit, and institutional support of exporters, the conclusion of a system of agreements on international trade, and economic and scientific-technical cooperation contributed to the formation of the competitive advantages of Israel in the markets of high-tech products

Ukrainian Export in the Conditions of War: Trends and the Rateof Changes

Russia's military aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the need to strengthen the country's export capacity as a driver of socio-economic development. The purpose of the article is to assess the scale and directions of structural transformations in the export of commodities in Ukrainian regions affected by military operations. The authors analyse export activity of the country's 23 regions on the basis of economic indicators: the ratio of exports to imports, the economy's commodity export orientation, the level of technological exports, the level of high-tech exports. Results of this analysis are used to identify changes that have taken place in the structure of exports across the main commodity groups and problems for the country's export activity, which are due to external challenges and threats. The authors propose a number of state policy measures that are required in order to stimulate exports and reduce the volume of imports. They provide arguments in favour of is a large-scale import substitution program, which should initially aim to boost investments in those processing industries, where Ukraine has sufficient raw materials (agro-processing and the production of finished metal products).(original abstract)

On the bright side of the middle income trap. The Polish case

Abstract The paper relates to the paradigm of the middle income trap (MIT) and covers mid-run challenges to the Polish economic development. Our theoretical background is based on the concepts of comparative advantage and intra-industry trade, while the empirical analysis concentrates on a sample of 14 product clusters. Obtained results reveal the competitive position of the Polish goods leading in the global mid- and high-tech exports. These findings may serve for the evidence-based smart industry and trade policy-making in Poland, as well as of other emerging economies. The fundamental question is which industries could serve as the engines of international expansion and become likely winners.

The impact of research and development (R&D) on economic growth: new evidence from kernel-based regularized least squares

PurposeResearch and development (R&D) is increasingly considered to be a key driver of economic growth. The relationship between these variables is commonly examined using linear models and thus relies only on single-point estimates. Against this background, this paper provides new evidence on the impact of R&D on economic growth using a machine learning approach that makes it possible to go beyond single-point estimation.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the kernel regularized least squares (KRLS) approach, a machine learning method designed for tackling econometric models without imposing arbitrary functional forms on the relationship between the outcome variable and the covariates. The KRLS approach learns the functional form from the data and thus yields consistent estimates that are robust to functional form misspecification. It also provides pointwise marginal effects and captures non-linear relationships. The empirical analyses are conducted using a sample of 101 countries over the period 2000–2020.FindingsThe estimates indicate that R&D expenditure and high-tech exports positively and significantly influence economic growth in a non-linear manner. The authors also find a positive and statistically significant relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In both cases, the effects are higher for upper-middle-income and high-income countries. These results suggest that a substantial effort is needed to green economic growth. Internet access is found to be an important factor in supporting economic growth, especially in high-income and middle-income countries.Practical implicationsThis paper contributes to underlining the importance of investing in R&D to support growth and shows that the disparity between countries is driven by the determinants of economic growth (human capital in R&D, high-tech exports, Internet access, economic freedom, unemployment rate and greenhouse gas emissions). Moreover, since the authors find that R&D expenditure and greenhouse gas emissions are positively associated with economic growth, technological progress with green characteristics may be an important pathway for green economic growth.Originality/valueThis paper uses an innovative machine learning method to provide new evidence that innovation supports economic growth.

Exploring the Moderation and Mediation Effects in Addressing the Main Determinants of Income Inequalities in Supporting Quality of Life: Insights from CEE Countries

Income inequality has become an increasingly pressing economic and social problem in Europe, especially in emerging countries with more significant inequalities than the EU average. The high-level inequality persistence can decrease well-being by accentuating the shortcomings at the household level, increasing poverty and social exclusion, generating political instability, leading to a decline in social cohesion, and, finally, a weakening of the Union as a whole. In this context, the paper aims to identify the main determinants of income inequality across the CEE countries and their significant implications in supporting the quality of life and well-being, highlighting the mediation and moderation effects. The analysis focuses on emerging European countries, using panel-based data analysis for ten EU countries covering 2008–2019. The empirical findings highlighted the importance of the minimum wage, high-tech exports, the degree of economic openness, the quality of institutions, and education spending in reducing income inequality. On the other hand, the proportion of the population with a higher education level and the interaction between official and unofficial economies led to income inequality. Therefore, to increase the quality of life, it is mandatory to decrease inequalities. Thus, fewer people will be at risk of living a less qualitative life. The empirical results also proved that the informal economy and the share of people employed in industry exhibited mediating roles. In contrast, the economic growth, the urbanization degree, and the share of people employed in services exhibited moderating roles. Additionally, we also tested the impact of the income inequality determinants of the quality of life, the empirical results supporting the influence of minimum wage, employment with tertiary education, government effectiveness, the degree of economic openness, and education expenditures.

UKRAINE WITHIN THE WORLD TRENDS OF THE HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS EXPORT MARKET

Abstract. The article is devoted to the research of world tendencies of the market of export of high - tech products and definition of features of dynamics and place in it of Ukraine. This study notes that the ability to generate and implement its own innovations and produce and improve high-tech goods and services will ensure strong competitiveness of the country, its financial stability and determine its place in the global economic environment of the future. The study based on the author's methodology "analysis of speed and acceleration", which involves the calculation and economic feasibility of these indicators and allows you to assess the country's potential to change trends. I analyzed the structure of exports of high-tech products in the world by countries and the dynamics of its volume by leading countries and Ukraine. I built rankings of countries on the absolute value of the rate of change in high-tech exports. I was studied the dynamics of speed and acceleration of changes in the volume of exports of high-tech products by country and grouped according to the ratio between these indicators. I determined that one of the important reasons for Ukraine's insignificant place in the world market of high-tech products is the state policy in the field of science, technology and industry, which has been implemented in the country for the past 30 years; reducing the role of science in the economy by transferring it from the determining factor of production ("vector of development") to the "vector of pride". I showed that Ukraine's stay in the 2nd group in 2019-2020 indicates the potential to change the situation, as the impact of factors affecting high-tech exports is positive, but still insufficient for the country's transition to accelerated growth. I believe that providing conditions at the state level for investment in high-tech industries of the country will contribute to this growth.

Does High-Tech Industry Agglomeration Promote Its Export Product Upgrading?—Based on the Perspective of Innovation and Openness

Based on the inter-provincial high-tech industry panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this study constructs static and dynamic panel models, respectively, to study the relationship between high-tech industry agglomeration and high-tech export product upgrading, and makes an in-depth discussion on open innovation to achieve sustainable development through industry agglomeration. This paper studies and tests the transmission mechanism between high-tech industrial agglomeration and export product upgrading, which makes up for the research gap in industry agglomeration. The results show that: (1) China’s high-tech industry agglomeration has a significant positive effect on its export industry product upgrading. (2) Regional education has a significant positive effect on the high-tech industry’s export product upgrading, and the influence of high-tech industry agglomeration on export product upgrading is negatively regulated by regional education. (3) From the perspective of influence mechanism, high-tech industry agglomeration has a positive effect on high-tech export product upgrading mediated by innovation and openness (open innovation), and then affects the sustainable development of a regional economy. (4) The high-tech industry agglomeration has a heterogeneous effect in promoting their export products; in terms of scale, the promotion effect is more significant in the large enterprises than small- and medium-sized enterprises; in terms of region, the eastern and western regions have a more significant role in promoting export product upgrading; in terms of industries, the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry has the most obvious promotion effect. Based on the research results, this study puts forward policy suggestions such as increasing investment in high-tech industries, strengthening the degree of opening to the outside world, encouraging enterprise innovation, and promoting balanced development of the industry.

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INNOVATIONS ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ISRAEL

Abstract. Countries that actively participate in the international division of labor in the globalized world economy are interdependent and have to withstand increasing competition for access to the markets of production factors, product markets, and often for the opportunity to survive, to remain on the political map of the world. An important factor that increases the competitiveness of national economies, makes it possible for them to achieve strategic goals, remains the implementation of scientific achievements in production, through maintaining the innovative activity of domestic economic entities at the appropriate level. There are not many countries in the world that have been implementing an innovative model of economic growth for a long time and, thanks to this, have maintained leadership in the world economy. In our opinion, one of the countries whose experience deserves to be studied by Ukrainian scientists is Israel – a country that, despite the unfavorable external environment, has been demonstrating positive dynamics of economic growth for a long time, the driver of which is the rapid implementation of innovations by national firms. The purpose of the study is to identify the impact of the innovative factor on the rate of economic growth in Israel. The publication examines the mechanisms of influence of innovations and innovative development of the state on the economic growth of a country that is unique from many points of view. Quantitative parameters of this influence were revealed using the construction of a correlation model, which confirmed the existence of a direct relationship between the introduction of innovations in production and the rate of development of the Israeli economy. The direct impact of the innovative component of business activity on such macroeconomic indicators as GDP, GDP per person, the number of exports and the amount of attracted foreign direct investments has been proven. It has been confirmed that the sector that generates innovations is a significant factor in attracting investments into the economy and increasing the share of the country’s high-tech exports. It also forms one of the biggest advantages that provide Israel with positive dynamics of real GDP growth and improvement of other indicators, including an increase in the level of employment, an increase in the competitiveness of the national economy, and a decrease in its import dependence. The experience of Israel is indicative, useful, important and worth imitating for Ukraine, as it demonstrates the approaches and directions in which the economy can and should be developed in conditions of instability and the impossibility of reliably predicting the development of events. To achieve the goal of the research, the following methods were used: generalization – to analyze economists’ views on the object of research; analysis and synthesis – to clarify the main scientific categories used in the article; graphical analysis – to visualize research results and statistical data; logical – to determine the factors of economic growth in Israel; comparative analysis – to assess innovative activity and the level of competitiveness of the Israeli economy; correlation-regression analysis – to create a model of the influence of factors of competitiveness of the national economy on macroeconomic indicators reflecting the level of economic development of the country. Key words: innovations, correlation analysis, innovative development, global innovation index, economic growth, competitiveness.

China’s high-tech exports in 2000—2020

The article examines the trends of China’s high-tech exports in 2000—2020, and identifies the main channels of technology acquisition by the Chinese economy. The main factors affecting China’s high-tech exports are high-tech imports, foreign direct investment in China, the country’s gross domestic expenditure on R&D, and the exchange rate. Meanwhile, technology imports, incoming foreign direct investment and China’s gross domestic expenditures on R&D are the channels of technology acquisition for the Chinese economy. Statistically significant correlation coefficients with the growth rate of the share of high-tech goods in PRC exports were obtained for the following indicators: the growth rate of the share of gross domestic expenditures on R&D in GDP, the growth rate of the share of high-tech goods in imports and the growth rate of the share of foreign direct investment in GDP. The important role of gross domestic expenditures on R&D in the development of China’s innovations should be recognized. R&D is actively applied in China in situations where it is difficult or impossible to access the necessary knowledge as part of participation in international technology exchange.

The Impact of Technological Achievement on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Panel ARDL Approach

In recent times, technological innovations among nations are the most powerful instrument for higher economic growth rates and development. A higher level of achievement in the diffusion/adoption of technology can create more effective economic growth. Given this motivation, the study aims to examine the impact of technological achievements on economic growth, gross capital formation, medium and high-tech exports, and employment in chosen 72 countries over the period of 1990 - 2020. The unit root tests of the cross-section augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) test of Pesaran and also covariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) test of Hansen, the Pedroni cointegration test, and then Pesaran ARDL model has been applied in the analysis of data. The ARDL model results reveal a statistically significant causality and positive relationships between the technology achievement index and GDP growth, gross capital formation, medium and high-tech exports, and employment significance at 1 percent level in the long run according to Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Consequently, technological innovations are linked with economic growth and macroeconomic factors, that is to say, to get higher growth needs to grow up adaptation of technology and also to produce and trade technology-specific products.

A FORECASTING MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPONENTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL GROWTH ON ECONOMIC SECURITY

The system of indicators for assessing the impact of the components of technological growth on economic security is generalised. This task is carried out by selecting a system of indicators (40 indicators), which, on the one hand, are consistent with one another and with key indicators used in analysing the state of economic security, and which are identified by the components of technological development, on the other hand. The standardisation of the values of initial data i.e. indicators, the determination of the degree of their deviations from the reference parameters and further integral assessment helped to find a generalised indicator of the state of development and the influence of technological growth on the parameters of the system of economic security. The purpose of the study is to test tools for forecasting modelling of the results of assessing the impact of technological growth on economic security. In accordance with the purpose, the level of relationships between the indicators of technological growth and the level of economic security is assessed. High, average and low levels of their relationship is revealed. The obtained results made it possible to forecast the rates of technological growth, perform exponential smoothing of the forecast estimates of the impact of the components of technological growth on economic security and employ damping measurement of the forecast level of the dependence of technological growth and economic security. Taking into account trends in technological growth, the system of indicators of the forecasting model for assessing economic security is expanded. The accuracy of the forecast is determined by the limits of the analysed period of the dynamics of the indicators – from 2013 to 2019, considering the impact of changes in the methodology for calculating individual input data according to statistical sources for the period under study. The use of forecasting models to assess the impact of technological development on Ukraine’s economic security will help identify political, economic, social and technological factors that will stimulate investment, strengthen economic openness, increase the volume and share of domestic high-tech exports, and thus, strengthen economic security.