Ukrainian Export in the Conditions of War: Trends and the Rateof Changes

Abstract

Russia's military aggression against Ukraine has highlighted the need to strengthen the country's export capacity as a driver of socio-economic development. The purpose of the article is to assess the scale and directions of structural transformations in the export of commodities in Ukrainian regions affected by military operations. The authors analyse export activity of the country's 23 regions on the basis of economic indicators: the ratio of exports to imports, the economy's commodity export orientation, the level of technological exports, the level of high-tech exports. Results of this analysis are used to identify changes that have taken place in the structure of exports across the main commodity groups and problems for the country's export activity, which are due to external challenges and threats. The authors propose a number of state policy measures that are required in order to stimulate exports and reduce the volume of imports. They provide arguments in favour of is a large-scale import substitution program, which should initially aim to boost investments in those processing industries, where Ukraine has sufficient raw materials (agro-processing and the production of finished metal products).(original abstract)