Diagnostics of transformations in regions’ commodity export under the influence of full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war

Abstract

The Ukrainian economy is traditionally export-oriented – the export share of goods and services in GDP (in actual prices) was 40.6% in 2021, and in GVA – more than 45 %. The military aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine has actualized the problematic topic of strengthening the domestic export potential to ensure the proper level of socio-economic development. Therefore, the Government has announced an orientation towards the export model of the national economy’s growth – the goal has been set to increase the share of exports in GDP up to 50%. The purpose of the article is to assess the dynamics and directions of the structural transformations in the commodity exports of Ukrainian regions under the influence of armed aggression by the russian federation. The authors conduct an express diagnosis of export-import operations in Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale russian-Ukrainian war. The export activity at the meso level is analyzed based on the calculation of indicators that characterize: the export coverage level of imports, the commodity export orientation of the economy, the degree of technological export, and the high-tech export orientation of industry. Attention is focused on a significant share of toll manufacturing products in the high-tech commodity exports of the vast majority of the Western regions. Based on the structural assessment of the commodity exports of Ukraine and its regions, changes in the export specialization of the latter ones by main commodity groups are defined. Key trends and problems in the formation and development of Ukraine's export potential in the face of external challenges and threats are outlined. Measures for the implementation of an effective state policy for domestic export stimulation are offered, and their target orientations from the standpoint of national interest protection are defined. The need for a large-scale import substitution program initially focused on investment stimulation in the processing industries where Ukraine has sufficient raw materials potential for their development (agro-processing and production of finished metal products) is emphasized. Further establishment of the production of goods with high added value will allow changing the product structure of Ukrainian exports toward the increase in the finished products’ share of processing industries and mechanical engineering.