Highest Number Of Dengue Cases Research Articles

Forest Coverage and Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Dengue in El Salvador, 2011-2013.

Dengue virus serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4 are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, which cause illness in an estimated 100 million annually. Although dengue viruses are endemic throughout El Salvador, very little is known about their ecology and epidemiology. The principal methods to prevent and reduce dengue cases are through vector control and by adoption of a vaccine. In addition, understanding the environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with dengue could contribute to case reduction by targeting prevention efforts in dengue hotspots. This study investigated environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with dengue cases in El Salvador. Dengue cases were obtained from 2011 to 2013 for 262 municipalities. The mean incidence was determined for each municipality for the 3 year period. Negative binomial regression models evaluated the relationship between dengue cases and the environmental factors elevation, forest coverage, mean annual temperature, and cumulative precipitation. Twelve socioeconomic and infrastructure variables and their relationship with dengue were also investigated by using negative binomial regression. A total of 29,764 confirmed dengue cases were reported. The mean dengue incidence for 2011-2013 was 135/100,000. The highest number of dengue cases occurred in San Salvador and surrounding municipalities, as well as in two additional cities, Santa Ana and San Miguel; the highest incidence of dengue cases (per 100,000) occurred in cities in the west and at the center of the country. Significant environmental variables associated with dengue included temperature, precipitation, and non-forested area. The socioeconomic variables poverty rate, illiteracy rate, and school attendance, and the infrastructure variables percent of homes with sanitary service, municipal trash service, electricity, and cement brick flooring, as well as population density, were also significant predictors of dengue. Understanding these environmental and socioeconomic factors and their relationship with dengue will help design and implement timely prevention strategies and vector control to reduce dengue in El Salvador.

Expanding Dengue Vectors Through the Border of Dhaka City: Vector Breeding Grounds in Gazipur City Corporation, Bangladesh

With global expansion of vector borne diseases, dengue has emerged as a big health crisis and social problem in recent years in Bangladesh. Despite its endemicity since 2000, very few studies were conducted outside of the Capital Dhaka city regarding vector breeding status. Within this dark situation, the year 2019 reported the ever highest number of dengue cases of 101,354. Of them about 50% were from out of Dhaka. To reduce this burden, keeping the vector population density under threshold level is must. In the present entomological study, 100 houses were checked randomly from five areas of Gazipur City Corporation (GCC) during the month of September in 2019. Both of the Aedes vectors were found in all areas, but Aedes aegypti population was dominant. Rooftop garden and under construction site were identified as the most important vector breeding sites. Highly urbanized area (SA2) produced the highest and suburban area (SA4) produced the lowest Breteau Index (BI) of 110 and 15 respectively. The overall House Index (HI) and Breteau Index (BI) of the study areas were 16 and 49 respectively. Four kinds of containers, namely; cemented tank, drum, big earthen pot (chari) and buckets contained about 80 percent of immature Aedes and identified as key container among the positive containers. The Said study has identified comparatively higher number of Ae. aegypti breeding, which is potential for triggering any major outbreak. Further, large-scale surveillance in all administrative wards with a larger sample may indicate the real picture of vector infestation situation throughout the municipality. Bangladesh J. Zool. 49(1): 69-82, 2021

CORRELATION BETWEEN CLIMATE FACTORS WITH DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER CASES IN SURABAYA 2007 – 2017

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a disease caused by dengue virus. DHF is mediated by the mosquito vector, the Aedes mosquito. The proliferation of dengue vector is influenced by many factors, one of which is climate factors. DHF is one of the main public health problems in Indonesia. Cases of dengue were first discovered in 1968 in the city of Jakarta and Surabaya. Currently Surabaya is one of the dengue endemic areas in Indonesia. . The case of DHF in the city of Surabaya can be said to be still quite high compared with another city in Indonesia, although there is a decrease in the number from year to year. When examined, many factors influence the high number of dengue cases in Surabaya, one of which is climate factor. Climate factors play a role in the proliferation of DHF vectors. Therefore, this study aims to examine for 10 years, namely in 2007 - 2017 whether there is a correlation between climate factors with dengue cases in the city of Surabaya., which in this study the climate factors used are rainfall, average temperature, and average air humidity. This research uses an analytical method namely Spearman on the SPSS software version 20. The results obtained that the case of DHF in the city of Surabaya has no relationship with climatic factors such as rainfall and average temperature with a significance value of the relationship p> 0.05. While the climate factor that has a relationship with DHF cases in Surabaya City is air humidity with a significance value of p <0.05 and has a positive relationship with the value of r = + 0.190. It can be concluded that not all climate factors have a relationship with the DHF case in Surabaya in 2007 - 2017, which has a relationship with the DHF case is air humidity.

Determine neighboring region spatial effect on dengue cases using ensemble ARIMA models

The state of Selangor, in Malaysia consist of urban and peri-urban centres with good transportation system, and suitable temperature levels with high precipitations and humidity which make the state ideal for high number of dengue cases, annually. This study investigates if districts within the Selangor state do influence each other in determining pattern of dengue cases. Study compares two different models; the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Ensemble ARIMA models, using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) measurement to gauge their performance tools. ARIMA model is developed using the epidemiological data of dengue cases, whereas ensemble ARIMA incorporates the neighbouring regions’ dengue models as the exogenous variable (X), into traditional ARIMA model. Ensemble ARIMA models have better model fit compared to the basic ARIMA models by incorporating neighbuoring effects of seven districts which made of state of Selangor. The AIC and BIC values of ensemble ARIMA models to be smaller compared to traditional ARIMA counterpart models. Thus, study concludes that pattern of dengue cases for a district is subject to spatial effects of its neighbouring districts and number of dengue cases in the surrounding areas.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices on the Use of Household Insecticide Products: Is the Awareness in Place?

Abstract Insecticide application is one of the most important control measures for protection from mosquito bites. A descriptive, community-based cross-sectional survey involving 986 respondents was conducted to probe the knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding household insecticide use in Selangor—the state that recorded the highest number of dengue cases in Malaysia. In this study, we classified the responses as either low (poor) or high (good) based on median cut-off points. Age, gender, ethnicity, and household income were found to be significantly associated factors relative to the respondents’ mosquito knowledge score, whereas no factors were significantly associated with attitudes toward the use of household insecticide. Practices, on the other hand, were associated with age and high attitude scores. Most respondents (71.4%) had good knowledge of mosquitoes. Conversely, 51.1% and 59.2% of respondents scored high on attitudes and practices, respectively, on the use of household insecticides. This study highlights the need to expand health promotion activities through social mobilization to raise awareness about vector-borne disease prevention and promoting positive attitudes and safe practices in the use of household insecticides.

Epidemiological characteristics and determination of spatio-temporal clusters during the 2013 dengue outbreak in Chiang Mai, Thailand.

Dengue is the worldwide most important mosquito-borne viral disease in humans. A large dengue outbreak occurred in Chiang Mai, Thailand in 2013. The aims of this study were to describe the epidemiology of this outbreak and determine the spatio-temporal pattern in the sub-district with the highest number of dengue cases. Data on patients, including date of illness, were obtained from the Chiang Mai Provincial Public Health Center and analyzed descriptively using R statistical software. The geographic location of patients' residences was determined from available geographical information databases supplemented with coordinated data collection in the field. A space-time permutation model from SaTScan™ was used to determine disease clusters corresponding to space and time. Results showed that Muang District, the centre of the province, had a higher number of cases than the other 25 districts. The Suthep subdistrict, part of Muang District, had most of the patients: 625 subjects distributed between 213 residences. The space-time analysis identified a primary cluster and 7 secondary clusters in different time periods. The primary cluster had 128 patients in a period of approximately 3 months. The number of patients in the secondary clusters ranged between 7 and 65. Most of the clusters occurred in densely populated areas during June and July (the rainy season). The finding from this study may support health agencies to plan surveillance campaigns for people at specified local areas with a high incidence of the disease.

Análise espacial dos casos de dengue e correlação com dados pluviométricos em São Paulo no período de 2015 a 2016

O vírus da dengue é um arbovírus da família dos flavivírus. Há quatro tipos de vírus: DEN (1, 2, 3 e 4), sendo o DEN3 o mais grave. É transmitido pelo Aedes aegypti. As formas clínicas são: a Dengue Clássica, Dengue com Complicações e a Febre Hemorrágica da Dengue. O Brasil é responsável por 70% dos casos da doença nas Américas. O objetivo deste trabalho foram demarcar as localidades que apresentam o maior número de casos de dengue correlacionando com dados pluviométricos no estado de São Paulo no período de 2015 a 2016. A prevalência foi calculada nos munícipios que registraram os maiores números de casos associados aos índices pluviométricos. Para edição de mapas foi utilizado o programa Q GIS 2.18. O estado de São Paulo foi o que apresentou o maior número de casos no país no período de 2015 a 2016 (1.688.688). As maiores prevalências relacionadas com os dados pluviométricos foram registradas em Onda Verde (17.989,9/1445,9mm); São Paulo (17.965,9/1819,4mm); Rio Claro (10.804,7/1435,0mm); Catanduva (8.915,2); Sorocaba (8.815,6/1476,3mm) e Campinas (5.766,2/1793,5mm). Os municípios com os maiores números de casos registrados foram: Onda Verde, São Paulo, Rio Claro, Catanduva, Sorocaba e Campinas. A associação entre a pluviosidade e sorotipo viral provavelmente colaboraram para a elevada prevalência da doença em 2015. Naquele ano a região Sudeste apresentou uma crise hídrica e as pessoas armazenaram água das chuvas em recipientes improvisados aumentando assim a oferta de criadouros do mosquito. Desta forma é muito importante que ocorra o incremento das políticas públicas de prevenção e a conscientização da população ao respeito de medidas para prevenção de criadouros do mosquito vetor. Palavras Chaves: Dengue. Aedes aegypti. Prevalência.

Hypothetical assessment of efficiency, willingness-to-accept and willingness-to-pay for dengue vaccine and treatment: a contingent valuation survey in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT In 2019, Bangladesh has grappled with a record-breaking surge in dengue fever, experiencing the highest number of dengue cases since the year 2000. Together, the intensification of dengue fever combined with a lack of dengue vaccines and appropriate medicines is expected to further the public and government’s interests in appropriate and potential dengue vaccines to control the epidemic. We considered people’s characteristics, dengue experience, and knowledge to assess their willingness-to-accept (WTA) and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a hypothetical dengue vaccine and ex-post treatment in Bangladesh (June–July 2019). This study implemented a contingent valuation (CV) method with 3,251 respondents in 10 different locations of Bangladesh. All respondents participated in a hypothetical dengue vaccine scenario consisting of 65% (vaccine A), 80% (vaccine B), and 95% (vaccine C) effectiveness levels with three doses of each vaccine and ex-post dengue treatment. Around 71.2% of respondents were willing to pay for at least one of the hypothetical vaccines: A, B, or C. The average WTPs of the three vaccines amounted to US$ 47.0, US$ 66.0, and US$ 89.0, which were defined as the total cost of the doses necessary to obtain immunity. In Bangladesh, there is a significant demand for low-priced dengue vaccines, which was proven by people’s higher acceptance of vaccination practices. Though dengue vaccines are not yet available in Bangladesh, this study provides significant support that both the government and private sectors should work together to develop a reliable and affordable dengue vaccine.

The east coast districts are the possible epicenter of severe dengue in Sabah

BackgroundMalaysia recorded the highest number of dengue cases between 2014 and 2017. There are 13 states and three federal territories in Malaysia, and each area varies in their prevalence of dengue. Sabah is one of the states situated in Borneo, Malaysia. Although dengue has been increasing for the last several years, no study was being done to understand the burden and serotype distribution of the dengue virus (DENV) in Sabah. Therefore, the present study was carried out to understand the epidemiology of the dengue infection and the factors responsible for severe dengue in Sabah.MethodsData on dengue infection were extracted from the dengue database of the state of Sabah from 2013 through 2018. DENV NS-1-positive serum samples from multiple sites throughout Sabah were sent to the state public health laboratory, Kota Kinabalu Public Health Laboratory, for serotype determination. The analysis of factors associated with severe dengue was determined from the data of 2018 only.ResultsIn 2013, there were 724 dengue cases; however, from 2014, dengue cases increased exponentially and resulted in 3423 cases in 2018. Increasing dengue cases also led to increased dengue mortality. The number of dengue deaths in 2013 was only five which then gradually increased, and in 2018, 29 patients died. This is an increase of 580% from 2013 to 2018. Deaths were considerably more in the districts of the east coast of Sabah compared with districts in the west coast. During the study period, all DENV serotypes could be identified as serotypes circulating in Sabah. In 2018, the predominant serotype was DENV-3. The monthly peak of dengue infection varied in different years. In the logistic regression analysis, it was identified that children were 6.5 times, patients infected with mixed serotype of DENV were 13 times, and cases from the districts of the east coast were 5.2 times more likely to develop severe dengue.ConclusionsAn increasing trend of dengue infection has been observed in Sabah. The burden of dengue, severe dengue, and mortality was noted especially in the districts of the east coast of Sabah. Severe dengue was most likely developed in children, cases from the east coast, and patients infected with mixed serotype of DENV.

Detection of Transovarial Transmission on Aedes sp. in Gombong Kebumen Central Java

Abstract. Gombong Subdistrict is one of dengue-endemic area in Kebumen Regency, Central Java. The high number of dengue cases in this area raises the question of whether there has been transovarial transmission occured from the Aedes sp. to their eggs. Transovarial transmission could be dangerous because the next generation of mosquitoes can directly become competent vectors as transmitters of the dengue virus (DENV). The purpose of this study is to detect dengue virus transovarial transmission in Aedes sp. in Gombong Subdistrict. This is a descriptive research in Gombong, Semanding, and Kali Tengah villages, Gombong Sub District. A total of 300 houses, 100 houses from each village were selected in this study. There were 600 Oviposition traps (ovitraps) were installed both inside and outside of houses for 6 days. Ovitraps were calculated by its Ovitrap Index (OI). Detection of transovarial transmission was carried by rearing field mosquitoes to Filial 1 then identified by RT-PCR assay. This study showed that OI in the three villages was higher in outdoor compared to indoor positions. All tested samples were negative DENV, indicated that there were no transovarial transmission occured at the study sites. Transmission in these study areas might still through horizontal mechanism transmission by mosquito bites. Although there is no transovarial transmission, awareness of dengue transmission must be continued by eradicating of mosquito nests such as 3M plus activities on a regular basis

Analisis Spasial Kejadian DBD di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Oesapa Tahun 2019

Oesapa Health Center is a health center that has the highest number of dengue cases in Kupang City in 2019 and spread throughout the Puskesmas working area. Regional-based disease management analysis techniques using spatial analysis can be used to facilitate the determination of the DHF problem solving intervention program. Spatial analysis is used to determine the pattern of disease spread and potential areas of dengue transmission based on area. The purpose of this study was to determine the pattern of dengue delivery, the spread of dengue incidence based on population density, the House Index and Container Index and the buffer. This type of research is a descriptive survey with a case study design. The sampling technique used total sampling with 98 people. The results of spatial analysis using Quantum GIS show the distribution pattern of dengue incidence with Clustered pattern with NNI value of 0,60 <1, the entire work area of Oesapa Health Center is included in the category of high population density, House Index and Container Index with the highest incidence of DHF in Oesapa and Lasiana Subdistrict and buffer analysis shows the tendency of dengue disease transmission in most cases to occur within a 100 meter radius, so the Oesapa Community Health Center work area is a high risk area for dengue transmission. Mosquito Nest Eradication Activities can be carried out by the community to prevent the spread of dengue disease.

Serotype-specific differences in the laboratory parameters among hospitalized children with dengue and genetic diversity of dengue viruses circulating in Tamil Nadu, India during 2017.

In 2017, Tamil Nadu, a southern state, had the second highest number of dengue cases from India. In the present study, the serotype-specific differences in the clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters among hospitalized children with dengue were investigated and molecular characterization of the circulating dengue virus (DENV) serotypes during 2017 in Tamil Nadu was performed. Eighty children with dengue-like symptoms consecutively admitted to a tertiary care hospital and positive for DENV NS1 antigen were investigated for DENV serotype utilizing a real-time reverse transcriptase based polymerase chain reaction assay. Complete envelope (E) gene sequencing of the DENV strains was performed. Seventy samples were positive for serotyping (25 DENV-1, 17 DENV-2, six DENV-3, and 22 DENV-4). DENV-4 infections were associated with elevated levels of liver enzymes; Alanine aminotransferase (P = .021) and aspartateaminotransferase (P = .001). However, none of the serotype was associated with any specific clinical features and severe dengue. Asian and American/African genotypes of DENV-1 were cocirculating. The circulating genotype was cosmopolitan for DENV-2 with multiple lineages, genotype III for DENV-3 and genotype I for DENV-4. Unique mutations were present in the 2017 DENV-4 isolates. The present study suggests the association of DENV-4 with elevated liver enzymes in children hospitalized for dengue. Further, the study reports the genetic diversity of DENV circulating in Tamil Nadu during 2017. The study calls for continuous monitoring of the circulating serotypes and genotypes at regional level in India which might result in a region wise database useful in predicting future outbreaks.

IMPLEMENTASI KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH KABUPATEN PONOGORO DALAM PENETAPAN STATUS KEJADIAN LUAR BIASA (KLB) WABAH DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) DI KABUPATEN PONOROGO

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is one of the public health problems that occurs in Indonesia with the number of sufferers that continues to increase and the wider spread in line with increasing mobility and population density. Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus and spread by mosquitoes, especially the Aedes Aegypti mosquito species. In 2016 Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is still a problem in Ponorogo Regency. Besides having the potential to cause Extraordinary Events (KLB), for the past nine years, Ponorogo Regency has become an Endemic District. According to data from the recapitulation of dengue cases in the Department of Health The high number of dengue cases in Ponorogo in 2019 were 17 sub-districts affected by dengue, with a total of 973 patients and 9 deaths. The high number of dengue fever is caused by an unstable climate and quite a lot of rainfall in the rainy season which is a potential breeding facility for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Besides that, it is also supported by the non-maximum activities in eradicating mosquito nests (PSN) in the community, causing an Extraordinary Event (KLB). Issues regarding how the implementation of the Ponorogo Regency government policy in determining the status of Extraordinary Events (KLB) outbreaks of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). Research on the implementation of the Ponorogo district government policy in determining the status of Extraordinary Events (KLB) outbreaks of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Ponorogo Regency using descriptive qualitative research methods with purposive sampling technique. The implementation of the policy in determining the DBD KLB so far can be said to be going well, this can be seen from the implementation in the field and the officers who are always on alert with the case.

PENCEGAHAN DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) DI PONDOK PESANTREN AINUL YAKIN KOTA JAMBI

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever or commonly called DHF is a problem that often occurs between seasons, such as in Indonesia, usually the transition from the dry season to the rainy season and vice versa. DHF caused by the dengue virus not only attacks children, but now it can attack all age groups. Until now, the handling of DHF has not been able to be addressed optimally, so there are still many cases of deaths from dengue. The high number of dengue cases every year to the end of death certainly requires special handling so that this problem does not continue and there needs to be cooperation between the government and the active role of the community itself. The aim of health education / education on prevention of dengue in Ainul Islamic Boarding School is sure to be able to provide information on dengue prevention and can apply directly to all residents of Islamic boarding schools in order to detect early so that dengue fever outbreaks can be addressed and watched out as early as possible and can reduce the number pain or death.Efforts that can overcome these problems include 3 M (draining, closing, burying), maintaining the cleanliness of the house and the environment, do not hang clothes, and immediately seek treatment from the nearest health service if you find complaints such as continuous fever for more than 3 days

Knowledge and Practices Regarding Aedes Control Amongst Residents of Dengue Hotspot Areas in Selangor: A Cross-Sectional Study

Dengue fever is endemic and remains a public health concern in Malaysia. The highest number of dengue cases occurred in Selangor in 2015. The majority of hotspot and outbreak areas in Malaysia were located in residential areas. Despite the high number of dengue prevalence in Malaysia, evidence for the level of community knowledge and practice of methods for Aedes control and prevention in the country remains scant. This cross-sectional study aimed to assess the demographic factors associated with the knowledge and practice of Aedes control and prevention methods. It also aimed to assess the associations and relationships between the public knowledge and practice of Aedes control and preventive activities involving Aedes larvae ovitraps (ALOTs), Mousticide, Denguard and other methods. Two residential areas that were considered as dengue hotspots were selected for the introduction of Aedes control and prevention programs. A sample size was calculated using G*power and a total of 152 residents who attended the dengue awareness events held at Section 3 and Section 8, Bandar Baru Bangi, Selangor, were recruited. A purposive sampling approach was adopted, and data were collected by using a pretested questionnaire with three subsections on sociodemographic information and on the knowledge and practice of Aedes control and prevention methods. No statistically significant (p>0.05) relationship between demographic factors and knowledge and practice scores was found. The results of χ2 square test showed a strong (φ-coefficient = 0.605) and significant (p<0.001) association between knowledge and practice scores. In addition, a strong and significant positive correlation (r=0.648, p<0.001) existed between knowledge and practice scores. In conclusion, health promotion programs that focus on educating the public regarding the use of Aedes larvae ovitraps (ALOTs), Mousticide, Denguard and other methods to prevent and control Aedes mosquitoes and that involve multiple stakeholders, such as government officials and responsible authorities, and the active participation of communities are crucial in the war against Aedes.

Comparison of Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among Communities Living in Hotspot and Non-Hotspot Areas of Dengue in Selangor, Malaysia.

Background: Dengue has affected more than one-third of the world population and Malaysia has recorded an increase in the number of dengue cases since 2012. Selangor state recorded the highest number of dengue cases in Malaysia. Most of the dengue infections occur among people living in hotspot areas of dengue. This study aims to compare Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among communities living in hotspot and non-hotspot dengue areas. Method: Communities living in 20 hotspot and 20 non-hotspot areas in Selangor were chosen in this study where 406 participants were randomly selected to answer questionnaires distributed at their housing areas. Total marks of each categories were compared using t-test. Result: Results show that there were significant mean differences in marks in Knowledge (p value: 0.003; 15.41 vs. 14.55) and Attitude (p value: < 0.001; 11.41 vs. 10.33), but not Practice (p value 0.101; 10.83 vs. 10.47) categories between communities of non-hotspot and hotspot areas. After considering two confounding variables which are education level and household income, different mean marks are found to be significant in Knowledge when education level acts as a covariate and Attitude when both act as covariates. Conclusion: Overall results show that people living in non-hotspot areas had better knowledge and attitude than people living in hotspot areas, but no difference was found in practice. This suggests that public health education should be done more frequently with people with a low education background and low household income, especially in hotspot areas to fight dengue outbreak and make dengue cases decrease effectively.

Dengue Cases in Colombia: Mathematical Forecasts for 2018-2022.

INTRODUCTION Dengue is a disease caused by any one of five virus serotypes and transmitted to humans by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Climate change and health conditions have combined to make dengue a global public health problem. The situation is especially serious in Colombia, where by week 36 of 2018, dengue incidence was 96 cases per 100,000 population, with a total of 111 deaths. Different mathematical and statistical models have been proposed to understand the dynamics of transmission and consequently to apply control strategies to reduce the number of dengue cases. OBJECTIVE Forecast the number of dengue cases expected in Colombia from 2018 through 2022 with the stochastic Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and use the results to adjust the parameters of an ordinary differential equations model in order to determine the disease's basic reproduction number in the year presenting the highest number of dengue cases. METHODS An ecological time series study was conducted to forecast dengue incidence in Colombia from 2018 through 2022. The data were compiled from Colombia's National Health Institute series on dengue cases reported by epidemiological week from 2009 to 2017. The stochastic ARIMA time series model was applied. Forecasts were then analyzed, and the year with the highest number of predicted cases was used to adjust the parameters of an ordinary differential equations model (ODE) through nonlinear least squares regression to calculate the vectorial capacity of the transmitting mosquito. RESULTS Forecasts of the total number of dengue cases per year in Colombia for the following five years were: 32,411 (2018); 88,221 (2019); 56,392 (2020); 47,940 (2021); and 77,344 (2022). The highest number of cases was forecast for 2019. Values for the parameters affecting dengue transmission that year (by the year's four quarters), such as recovery rate (0.0992, 0.0838, 0.1177, and 0.1535, respectively), vectorial capacity of the transmitting mosquito (0.1720, 0.1705, 0.1204, and 0.2147, respectively) and the basic dengue reproduction number (1.73, 2.03, 1.02, and 1.40, respectively) were estimated, indicating that most cases would occur in the second quarter and, since the basic reproduction number values were >1, the disease would persist in the country throughout the entire year. CONCLUSIONS ARIMA model forecasts for 2018 through 2022 predicted the highest incidence of dengue cases in Colombia would occur in 2019. Comparison of ARIMA model forecasts and the ODE model allowed projections of possible variations in dengue cases reported, and the basic reproduction number predicted that dengue would persist throughout 2019. KEYWORDS Arboviruses, climate, dengue, models, theoretical, basic reproduction number, prognosis, Colombia.

Evaluation of insecticide resistance in Aedes aegypti populations connected by roads and rivers: the case of Tocantins state in Brazil.

BACKGROUND The longstanding application of insecticides for vector control without periodic monitoring of the population response to these chemicals can directly drive the selection of resistant populations of vector mosquitoes. Tocantins is the newest state of the Brazilian Federation. Despite a historically high number of dengue cases, studies and monitoring data concerning insecticide resistance in the state are lacking.OBJECTIVES To verify the resistance status of Aedes aegypti from 10 populations distributed throughout the state connected by rivers and roads.METHODS Between 50 and 150 ovitraps were installed in house gardens within each municipality. Collection points were established based on the importance of the towns and on geographic aspects. Dose response bioassays were performed in accordance with World Health Organization guidelines. Molecular assays were conducted to detect kdr mutations, which are related to pyrethroid resistance.FINDINGS Of the 3,200 ovitrap paddles analysed, 25.8% contained eggs, with a total of 55,687 eggs collected. With the exception of Caseara, all evaluated populations were considered to be resistant to temephos. The data showed different levels of resistance to deltamethrin among the samples. Caseara and Guaraí showed the lowest RR95 values. On average, the NaVR1 kdr allele was most frequent (40.3%), followed by NaVS (38.1%), and NaVR2 (21.6%). Palmas, the capital of the state, had the highest frequency of kdr alleles (87.5%).MAIN CONCLUSIONS With the exception of Palmas, the towns with the highest indexes (ovitrap positivity, number and density of eggs), as well with high levels of resistance and kdr alleles were located along the BR-153 road, indicating that the flow of people and cargo can contribute to the dispersion of the vector and potentially resistance. This study contributes substantially to knowledge regarding the insecticide resistance profile of Tocantins mosquito populations; the data generated via the study could facilitate the judicious use of insecticides by vector control programs.

GAMBARAN PERSEPSI MASYARAKAT TERHADAP PERAN DAN MOTIVASI BIDAN UNTUK MENURUNKAN ANGKA KESAKITAN DBD DI DESA SIAGA MORGO MULYO TAHUN 2017

The high rate of morbidity and death from dengue fever is an infectious disease whose efforts to reduce the case related to national commitment and often appear as extraordinary events, this is seen from the high number of dengue cases in Indonesia as many as 8,487 people with Dengue Fever with the number of deaths 108 people and Bengkulu Province case encountered as many as 925 cases, and died 19 people, so the role of midwife as the spearhead in society is needed. This research aimed to find out the perception of society to the Role and Motivation of Midwife to Reduce the Figures of Dengue Fever in Siaga Morgo Mulyo village in 2017.This research is a descriptive research, the population were all families in Siaga Morgo Mulyo village in 2017 totaled 320 heads of family and the sample taken 39 people with purposive sampling sampling technique, with inclusion criterion sample which were those who were willing to become respondents and had an ability in read and writing.The results of this study indicated that people's perception on the role and motivation of midwives to reduce Dengue Fever morbidity in Siaga Morgo Mulyo village in 2017, most of the respondents (62.5%) had less perception on the role of midwives and almost all respondents (51.3 %) had less perception on midwife’s motivation to Reduce Dengue Fever Mortality Rate In Siaga Morgo Mulyo village in 2017.It is expected that medics especially midwives can emphasize by performing their role and motivation as midwife in reducing Dengue Fever morbidity.

Dengue in Bali: Clinical characteristics and genetic diversity of circulating dengue viruses.

A high number of dengue cases are reported annually in Bali. Despite the endemicity, limited data on dengue is available for Bali localities. Molecular surveillance study was conducted to explore the clinical and virological characteristics of dengue patients in urban Denpasar and rural Gianyar areas in Bali during the peak season in 2015. A total of 205 adult dengue-suspected patients were recruited in a prospective cross-sectional study. Demographic and clinical information were obtained, and dengue screening was performed using NS1 and IgM/IgG ELISAs. Viral RNA was subsequently extracted from patients’ sera for serotyping using conventional RT-PCR and Simplexa Dengue real-time RT-PCR, followed by genotyping with sequencing method. We confirmed 161 patients as having dengue by NS1 and RT-PCR. Among 154 samples successfully serotyped, the DENV-3 was predominant, followed by DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-4. Serotype predominance was different between Denpasar and Gianyar. Genotyping results classify DENV-1 isolates into Genotype I and DENV-2 as Cosmopolitan Genotype. The classification grouped isolates into Genotype I and II for DENV-3 and DENV-4, respectively. Clinical parameters showed no relationship between infecting serotypes and severity. We observed the genetic diversity of circulating DENV isolates and their relatedness with historical data and importation to other countries. Our data highlights the role of this tourist destination as a potential source of dengue transmission in the region.