High Mountain Catchments Research Articles

Snow depth mapping from stereo satellite imagery in mountainous terrain: evaluation using airborne laser-scanning data

Abstract. Accurate knowledge of snow depth distributions in mountain catchments is critical for applications in hydrology and ecology. Recently, a method was proposed to map snow depth at meter-scale resolution from very-high-resolution stereo satellite imagery (e.g., Pléiades) with an accuracy close to 0.5 m. However, the validation was limited to probe measurements and unmanned aircraft vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, which sampled a limited fraction of the topographic and snow depth variability. We improve upon this evaluation using accurate maps of the snow depth derived from Airborne Snow Observatory laser-scanning measurements in the Tuolumne river basin, USA. We find a good agreement between both datasets over a snow-covered area of 138 km2 on a 3 m grid, with a positive bias for a Pléiades snow depth of 0.08 m, a root mean square error of 0.80 m and a normalized median absolute deviation (NMAD) of 0.69 m. Satellite data capture the relationship between snow depth and elevation at the catchment scale and also small-scale features like snow drifts and avalanche deposits at a typical scale of tens of meters. The random error at the pixel level is lower in snow-free areas than in snow-covered areas, but it is reduced by a factor of 2 (NMAD of approximately 0.40 m for snow depth) when averaged to a 36 m grid. We conclude that satellite photogrammetry stands out as a convenient method to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in high mountain catchments.

Moisture sources and synoptic conditions of summer precipitation in the glacial zone of the East Sayan Range

Abstract. Precipitation in high-mountain regions is characterized by a strong heterogeneity due to complex interaction between atmospheric circulation and steep topography, however, extremely rare network of high elevation stations hampers the adequate high resolution regional climate modeling. In this study we present new data of precipitation directly measured in high-mountain catchment, on the continental glacier (East Sayan Range, south of East Siberia) during the summer periods of 2015–2017 using automatic weather station. The precipitation record was compared with near located weather stations and ERA Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Precipitation mode similar to the glacier site was found at the stations located west and northwest, while ERA Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data underestimated the precipitation by 40 % and 70 %, respectively. Atmospheric circulation patterns in days with precipitation were analyzed by using mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 700 and 500 hPa and classification of macro scale atmospheric processes of the Northern Hemisphere by Dzerdzeevskii. Summer precipitation was mostly associated with meridional southern group of large scale circulation the Northern Hemisphere, while at synoptic scale it basically fell in cyclonic (49 % of precipitation) and low-gradient cyclonic (30 %) baric fields. Six typical atmospheric circulation patterns over the East Sayan were identified for days with precipitation. The sources and atmospheric moisture transfer to the glacier was defined by using the HYSPLIT trajectory model. The most of summer precipitation (70 %) was related with western cyclones, while about 25 % of rainfalls (mainly of moderate to strong intensity) was originated from the south-east (Pacific monsoon influence).

Snow Depth Patterns in a High Mountain Andean Catchment from Satellite Optical Tristereoscopic Remote Sensing

AbstractObtaining detailed information about high mountain snowpacks is often limited by insufficient ground‐based observations and uncertainty in the (re)distribution of solid precipitation. We utilize high‐resolution optical images from Pléiades satellites to generate a snow depth map, at a spatial resolution of 4 m, for a high mountain catchment of central Chile. Results are negatively biased (median difference of −0.22 m) when compared against observations from a terrestrial Light Detection And Ranging scan, though replicate general snow depth variability well. Additionally, the Pléiades dataset is subject to data gaps (17% of total pixels), negative values for shallow snow (12%), and noise on slopes >40–50° (2%). We correct and filter the Pléiades snow depths using surface classification techniques of snow‐free areas and a random forest model for data gap filling. Snow depths (with an estimated error of ~0.36 m) average 1.66 m and relate well to topographical parameters such as elevation and northness in a similar way to previous studies. However, estimations of snow depth based upon topography (TOPO) or physically based modeling (DBSM) cannot resolve localized processes (i.e., avalanching or wind scouring) that are detected by Pléiades, even when forced with locally calibrated data. Comparing these alternative model approaches to corrected Pléiades snow depths reveals total snow volume differences between −28% (DBSM) and +54% (TOPO) for the catchment and large differences across most elevation bands. Pléiades represents an important contribution to understanding snow accumulation at sparsely monitored catchments, though ideally requires a careful systematic validation procedure to identify catchment‐scale biases and errors in the snow depth derivation.

Impact of forcing on sublimation simulations for a high mountain catchment in the semiarid Andes

Abstract. In the semiarid Andes of Chile, farmers and industry in the cordillera lowlands depend on water from snowmelt, as annual rainfall is insufficient to meet their needs. Despite the importance of snow cover for water resources in this region, understanding of snow depth distribution and snow mass balance is limited. Whilst the effect of wind on snow cover pattern distribution has been assessed, the relative importance of melt versus sublimation has only been studied at the point scale over one catchment. Analyzing relative ablation rates and evaluating uncertainties are critical for understanding snow depth sensitivity to variations in climate and simulating the evolution of the snowpack over a larger area and over time. Using a distributed snowpack model (SnowModel), this study aims to simulate melt and sublimation rates over the instrumented watershed of La Laguna (513 km2, 3150–5630 m a.s.l., 30∘ S, 70∘ W), during two hydrologically contrasting years (i.e., dry vs. wet). The model is calibrated and forced with meteorological data from nine Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) located in the watershed and atmospheric simulation outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results of simulations indicate first a large uncertainty in sublimation-to-melt ratios depending on the forcing as the WRF data have a cold bias and overestimate precipitation in this region. These input differences cause a doubling of the sublimation-to-melt ratio using WRF forcing inputs compared to AWS. Therefore, the use of WRF model output in such environments must be carefully adjusted so as to reduce errors caused by inherent bias in the model data. For both input datasets, the simulations indicate a similar sublimation fraction for both study years, but ratios of sublimation to melt vary with elevation as melt rates decrease with elevation due to decreasing temperatures. Finally results indicate that snow persistence during the spring period decreases the ratio of sublimation due to higher melt rates.

The sedimentary evolution of Da Qaidam Salt Lake in Qaidam Basin, northern Tibetan Plateau: implications for hydro-climate change and the formation of pinnoite deposit

Da Qaidam Salt Lake, northern Qaidam Basin, is known for its liquid and solid boron resource. More than that, pinnoite-bearing sediments, occurring in this lake, are rare in the world. However, little attention has been paid to the hydro-climate change and brine evolution correlation with the formation of pinnoite deposit. According to the multi-proxy records, as well as AMS 14C dating, the sediment profiles DCD02 and DCD03 from Da Qaidam Salt Lake were studied. The results revealed that the ore-forming age of three pinnoite deposits are 7.83–8.62 cal ka BP, 6.74–7.07 cal ka BP and 4.66–5.41 cal ka BP. The sedimentary evolution of Da Qaidam Salt Lake along with the pinnoite formation during the past 13,000 years can be divided into four stages, i.e., (1) relatively fresh and deep paleo-lake with low salinity during 12.98–9.00 cal ka BP; (2) seasonal variations between fresh and brackish paleo-lake during 9.00–8.62 cal ka BP; (3) salt lake stage with relatively high salinity and alkalinity during 8.62–4.66 cal ka BP, and (4) relatively shallow lake with high salinity since 4.66 cal ka BP. Under favorable sedimentologic and hydrogeochemical conditions, a series of boron deposits including pinnoite ore formed in different zones of Da Qaidam Salt Lake due to the different ore-forming mechanisms. Finally, under the differential effect of climate warming condition between the high mountain catchments and arid basin, the boron ore-forming model was established as a higher mountain–lower basin–shallower water model.

Comparing the ISBA and J2000 approaches for surface flows modelling at the local scale in the Everest region

This paper compares the hydrological responses at the local scale of two models using different degrees of refinement to represent physical processes in sparsely instrumented mountainous Himalayan catchments. This work presents the novelty of applying, at a small spatio-temporal scale and under the same forcing conditions, a fully distributed surface scheme based on mass and energy balance equations (ISBA surface scheme), and a semi-distributed calibrated model (J2000 hydrological model). A new conceptual module coupled to the ISBA surface scheme for flow routing is presented. Two small catchments located in mid- and high- mountain environments were chosen to represent the very different climatic and physiographic characteristics of the Central Himalayas in the Everest region of eastern Nepal. The results show that both models globally represent the dynamic of the processes for evaporation, quick runoff and discharge in a similar way. The differences in the model structures and results mainly concern the snow processes and the soil processes. In particular for the high-mountain catchment, the snow-pack simulation is shown to be the main driver of the discrepancy between the two models. The sub-daily variations of snow processes are shown to significantly influence the estimation of the snow-melt contribution to discharge.

Hydrological Simulation and Runoff Component Analysis over a Cold Mountainous River Basin in Southwest China

Assessment of water resources from mountainous catchments is crucial for the development of upstream rural areas and downstream urban communities. However, lack of data in these mountainous catchments prevents full understanding of the response of hydrology or water resources to climate change. Meanwhile, hydrological modeling is challenging due to parameter uncertainty. In this work, one tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (the upper stream of the Brahmaputra River) was used as a case study for hydrological modeling. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42V7) data were utilized as a substitute for gauge-based rainfall data, and the capability of simulating precipitation, snow, and groundwater contributions to total runoff by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was investigated. The uncertainty in runoff proportions from precipitation, snowmelt, and groundwater was quantified by a batch-processing module. Hydrological signatures were finally used to help identify if the hydrological model simulated total runoff and corresponding proportions properly. The results showed that: (1) TRMM data were very useful for hydrological simulation in high and cold mountainous catchments; (2) precipitation was the primary contributor nearly all year round, reaching 56.5% of the total runoff on average; (3) groundwater occupied the biggest proportion during dry seasons, whereas snowmelt made a substantial contribution only in late spring and summer; and (4) hydrological signatures were useful for helping to evaluate the performance of the hydrological model.

Changes in river discharge in typical mountain permafrost catchments, northwestern China

River discharge has changed significantly in high-latitude permafrost regions due to climate warming, but these changes are still unclear in high-mountain permafrost regions. Long-term discharge data of 8 inland river catchments in the Qilian Mountains were analysed, and increased winter (minimum monthly) discharge, decreased recession coefficient and decreased ratio of maximum monthly to minimum monthly discharge (Qmax/Qmin) was detected commonly. This implies that the degradation of mountain permafrost under the warming climate has significantly changed the river discharge of high mountain catchments. Permafrost degradation may influence the relationship between summer precipitation and the following cold-season discharge by promoting liquid water infiltration, increasing the groundwater storage capacity and supporting deep flow paths. However, the role of summer precipitation on cold-season discharge may be affected by different glacier runoff rates (the percentage of glacier runoff contribution to the total annual flow). Under permafrost degradation, summer precipitation will strongly influence the following cold-season discharge in catchments with a low glacier runoff rate (less than 10%) but not the discharge in catchments with a high glacier runoff rate (more than 40%). The results of this study may provide important information for local water resource management and future permafrost hydrological simulation.

Anomalously high concentration of Ni as sulphide phase in sediment and in water of a mountain catchment with serpentinite bedrock

Potentially toxic elements (i.e., PTEs, e.g., Ni, Cr, Co, Cu) are a major concern for environmental quality and human health, and soils derived from ultramaphic bedrock are a main natural source of these elements. For a good comprehension of the chemical availability and possible dissolution of these elements in areas with high natural background concentrations, it is important to evaluate their speciation in soils and sediments and their concentrations in waters.The speciation and the total load of PTEs in serpentinite-derived glacial sediment were evaluated through acid digestion and sequential extractions, together with the analysis of water samples in an alpine catchment during the summer of 2014 and 2015.Our results revealed a peculiar Ni speciation in the sediment samples, appointing to the presence as sulphide and differentiating from results of previous works usually indicating a main source bond to Fe and Mn oxides. These data probably revealed an important amount of sulphide minerals and were related to a relatively low weathering of glacial sediment. Moreover, water analysis showed a relatively high Ni concentration consistent with an enhanced dissolution. Enrichment due to atmospheric deposition is excluded by the temporal trend of Ni concentrations in water samples. Our results showed anomalies in Ni speciation and dissolution in water different from previous studies on the same bedrock type, raising new issues regarding the primary pedogenetical phase of serpentine soils and the dissolution of Ni in high mountain catchments.

Intensive precipitation observation greatly improves hydrological modelling of the poorly gauged high mountain Mabengnong catchment in the Tibetan Plateau

Precipitation is one of the most critical inputs for models used to improve understanding of hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is challenging to generate a reliable precipitation data set capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the harsh climate, extreme terrain and the lack of observations. This study conducts intensive observation of precipitation in the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau during July to August 2013. Because precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude, the observed data are used to characterize the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100 m and the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 5.2 h for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. A distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets with improved physical process for snow (WEB-DHM-S) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes with gridded precipitation data derived from a lower altitude meteorological station and the PG and HD characterized for the study area. The observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are used for model calibration and validation. Runoff, SCA and LST simulations all show reasonable results. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that runoff is largely underestimated without considering PG, indicating that short-term intensive precipitation observation has the potential to greatly improve hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.

Providing a non-deterministic representation of spatial variability of precipitation in the Everest region

Abstract. This paper provides a new representation of the effect of altitude on precipitation that represents spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the Everest region. Exclusive observation data are used to infer a piecewise linear function for the relation between altitude and precipitation and significant seasonal variations are highlighted. An original ensemble approach is applied to provide non-deterministic water budgets for middle and high-mountain catchments. Physical processes at the soil–atmosphere interface are represented through the Interactions Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) surface scheme. Uncertainties associated with the model parametrization are limited by the integration of in situ measurements of soils and vegetation properties. Uncertainties associated with the representation of the orographic effect are shown to account for up to 16 % of annual total precipitation. Annual evapotranspiration is shown to represent 26 % ± 1 % of annual total precipitation for the mid-altitude catchment and 34% ± 3 % for the high-altitude catchment. Snowfall contribution is shown to be neglectable for the mid-altitude catchment, and it represents up to 44 % ± 8 % of total precipitation for the high-altitude catchment. These simulations on the local scale enhance current knowledge of the spatial variability in hydroclimatic processes in high- and mid-altitude mountain environments.

Change in snow depletion pattern in a river basin of Arunachal Pradesh under projected climatic scenarios

<p>Snow depletion curves (SDCs) are important in hydrological studies for predicting snowmelt generated runoff in high mountain catchments. The present study deals with the derivation of the average snow depletion pattern in the Mago basin of Arunachal Pradesh, which falls in the eastern Himalayan region and the generation of climate affected SDCs in future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) under different projected climatic scenarios. The MODIS daily snow cover product at 500m resolution from both the Aqua and Terra satellites was used to obtain daily snow cover maps. MOD10A1 and MYD10A1 images were compared to select cloud free or minimum cloud image to obtain the temporal distribution of snow cover area (SCA). Snow accumulation and depletion patterns were obtained by analysing SCA at different days. For most of the years, two peaks were observed in the SCA analysis. The conventional depletion curve (CDC) representing present climate was derived by determining and interpolating the SCA from cloud-free (cloud<5%) images for the selected hydrological year 2007. The investigation shows that the SCA was highest in February and lowest in May. Ten years meteorological data were used to normalize the temperature and precipitation data of the selected hydrological year (2007) to eliminate the impact of their yearly fluctuations on the snow cover depletion. The temperature and precipitation changes under four different projected climatic scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and IPCC Commitment) were analysed for future years. Changes in the cumulative snowmelt depth with respect to the present climate for different future years were studied by a degree-day approach and were found to be highest under A1B, followed by A2, B1, and IPCC Commitment scenarios. It was observed that the A1B climatic scenario affected the depletion pattern most, making the depletion of snow to start and complete faster than under different scenarios. Advancing of depletion curve for different future years was found to be highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC Commitment scenarios with A2 and B1 in-between them.</p>

Regional flood frequency analysis in the High Atlas mountainous catchments of Morocco

In semi-arid catchments, the contribution of floods to annual runoff is important. The High Atlas Mountain catchments (N’Fis, Rheraya, Ourika, Zat and R’dat) located in the south of Morocco, upstream of the city of Marrakech, are an example of those basins where floods provide the main contribution to surface water resources. The goal of this study is to evaluate whether a regional flood frequency analysis could improve the estimation of the magnitude and the occurrence of floods in these mountainous catchments. The database considered is long-term measurement of daily discharge at the outlets with record length varying from 35 to 45 years. The index flood method is considered to build a regional model based on the generalized extreme values distribution. The results showed a contrasted seasonal behavior, with floods caused by either rainfall during the autumn season or a mix of rainfall and snowmelt for spring events. As a consequence, two distinct regional models have been computed, one for autumn and one for spring events. No significant trends have been found for seasonal maximum discharge in all the catchments. The results of the regional frequency analysis show that the regional model provides better flood quantiles estimates than a standard at-site model. However, there is a much greater uncertainty for both local and regional estimates of floods occurring during the autumn than during spring events, which are estimated with a good level of accuracy. This research provides insights into how to improve the estimation of flood return levels useful for water resources management in these semi-arid mountainous catchments.

Estimation of snowfall limit for the Kashmir Valley, Indian Himalayas, with TRMM PR Bright Band information

Knowing the height of the snowfall limit during precipitation events is crucial for better understanding a number of hydro-climatic processes, for instance glacier-climate interactions or runoff from high mountain catchments. However, knowledge on heights of the phase change during precipitation events is limited by the small number of meteorological measurements available at high altitudes, such as the Himalayas. The bright band (BB) of satellite based radar data may be a promising proxy for the snow/rain transition during particular stratiform precipitation events over high mountain regions. The BB is a horizontal layer of stronger radar reflectivity caused by the melting of hydrometeors at the level where solid precipitation turns into rain. Here, we present BB heights detected by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) 2A23 algorithm over a mountainous area. To assess the performance of BB heights, we have compared a 17-year data set of BB estimations of the TRMM PR with radiosonde observations and meteorological station data from Srinagar, Kashmir Valley, India. During March to November, the BB lies mostly about 200 to 800m below the freezing level (FL) recorded by radiosondes. The correlation between BB and FL heights extrapolated from a ground-based station is smaller and depends on the timing of the air temperature measurement – an important finding for applying extrapolation techniques in data sparse regions. Further on, we found a strong seasonal and monthly variability of the BB height, e.g. extending in summer months from about 2700m to almost 6000m asl. Comparison with near surface rain intensity from the TRMM PR product 2A25 indicates that – during intense monsoonal summer precipitation events – the BB height is concentrated between about 3500 and 4000m asl. We can conclude that TRMM PR BB data deliver valuable complementary information for regional or seasonal variability in snow/rain transition in data sparse regions and, further on, BB data from surrounding lowlands could be used to validate extrapolation approaches to assess snowfall limit for mainly stratiform precipitation events where stations at high elevations are missing.

Reduced winter runoff in a mountainous permafrost region in the northern Tibetan Plateau

The degradation of mountain permafrost under climate warming may alter the runoff regime of high mountainous catchments. In this study, we evaluated the influence of permafrost on the hydrological regime using hydrological signals in the Yeniugou Basin located in a mountainous permafrost region in the Qilian Mountains of the northern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The effect of permafrost degradation on the hydrological response was assessed based on 28years of runoff and meteorological data. The results indicated that the investigated region exhibited a large increase in annual surface ground temperature from 1979 to 2006, with almost unchanged precipitation and evaporation potential. The winter runoff levels exhibited a significant decreasing linear trend, whereas the annual runoff and runoff in other seasons did not show any distinct linear trends. According to a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between winter runoff and meteorological factors, the ratio of maximum (Qmax) and minimum (Qmin) discharge, the recession coefficient and baseflow separation, and the reduced winter runoff were significantly correlated with thawing of permafrost. However, due to a time-lag response of climate forcing to permafrost thawing, some of these changes are undetectable over a short period. This study provides preliminary data on cold region hydrology and its response to climate change.

Field study on drainage densities and rescaled width functions in a high‐altitude alpine catchment

AbstractThis paper addresses the effect of accurately mapping spatially heterogeneous drainage densities in high‐altitude alpine basins on Rescaled Width Functions (RWFs), used in some applications as a minimalist model of the hydrologic response. The channel network and 373 of its channel heads were mapped in the field in a high mountain catchment in the Swiss Alps. The mapped channel network is characterized by highly uneven drainage density, here described by the distribution of the length to the first channelized site computed along steepest descent from any unchannelled site. Various channel networks were extracted from a 1 m lidar‐derived digital terrain model and compared with the field‐mapped channel network using geomorphologic parameters, hillslope‐to‐channel distance and RWFs. Our results show that the channel network derived by statistical analysis of surface morphology is consistent with the field‐mapped network. Larger discrepancies were observed when the channel network was obtained with classical threshold‐based approaches relying on cumulative drainage area and local slope. The actual arrangement of the drainage densities has a significant impact on the RWFs. The discrepancy was largest between RWFs derived from classical extraction methods and RWFs derived with the field‐mapped network, indicating an inappropriate extraction of the channelled portion of the high‐altitude catchment that is a reflection of the variety of channel initiation processes. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity of the drainage density might play an important role in modelling streamflow generation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The development, temporal evolution and environmental influence of an unpaved road network on mountain terrain: an example from the Carpathian Mts. (Poland)

Roads affect the geomorphological changes of gradients, the sedimentary budget and the hydrological response of a catchment. This study deals with the development and temporary evolution of an unpaved road network in the Polish Carpathians. The analysis focuses on the mid-nineteenth and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and was conducted in six catchments located in three main sub-regions of the Carpathians. Results revealed that road network density calculated using 1:10,000 topographic maps is usually comparable to the real values. The contemporary real road network density reached 7.4–8.4 km km−2 (foothills); 6.6–6.7 km km−2 (medium–high-mountain); 2.3–2.9 km km−2 (high-mountain) catchments, and these are one of the highest values recorded in mountain areas anywhere in the world. The “land famine” of the nineteenth century was discovered to be the main factor that influenced the high road network density in the foothills and medium–high-mountain catchments, whereas the excavation of natural resources, sheep grazing and the establishment of the national park, were considered to be such factors in the high-mountain of the Tatra Mts. Results revealed that the road network, usually considered as a permanent element of the environment, significantly evolves over time. These changes were mainly determined by the changes in the economy and the development of settlements and affected 45–90 % of the road network. The study emphasized that changes in the road network have a significant long-term impact on the mountain environment.

Climate change impacts on the seasonality and generation processes of floods – projections and uncertainties for catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes

Abstract. Climate change is likely to impact the seasonality and generation processes of floods in the Nordic countries, which has direct implications for flood risk assessment, design flood estimation, and hydropower production management. Using a multi-model/multi-parameter approach to simulate daily discharge for a reference (1961–1990) and a future (2071–2099) period, we analysed the projected changes in flood seasonality and generation processes in six catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes under the current climate in Norway. The multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consists of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two methods for adjusting the climate model output to the catchment scale, and (iii) one conceptual hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets. Results indicate that autumn/winter events become more frequent in all catchments considered, which leads to an intensification of the current autumn/winter flood regime for the coastal catchments, a reduction of the dominance of spring/summer flood regimes in a high-mountain catchment, and a possible systematic shift in the current flood regimes from spring/summer to autumn/winter in the two catchments located in northern and south-eastern Norway. The changes in flood regimes result from increasing event magnitudes or frequencies, or a combination of both during autumn and winter. Changes towards more dominant autumn/winter events correspond to an increasing relevance of rainfall as a flood generating process (FGP) which is most pronounced in those catchments with the largest shifts in flood seasonality. Here, rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP primarily due to increasing temperature. We further analysed the ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty in the projected changes and found that the climate projections and the methods for downscaling or bias correction tend to be the largest contributors. The relative role of hydrological parameter uncertainty, however, is highest for those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality, which confirms the lack of robustness in hydrological model parameterization for simulations under transient hydrometeorological conditions.

Modeling the hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized high mountain region, northwest China

AbstractThe impact of climate change on the variability of local discharge was investigated in a glacierized high mountain catchment located in the source area of the Ürümqi river, northwest China. We used past climate records to drive a hydrological model to simulate the discharge from 2000 to 2008. The model was then used to project future discharge variations for the period 2041–60, based on a regionally downscaled climate-change scenario combined with three stages of glacier coverage (i.e. compared to the glacier coverage in 2008): unchanged glacier size (100% glacierized), recession of half the glacier area (50% glacierized) and complete disappearance of glaciers (0% glacierized). In each scenario, snowmelt will begin half a month earlier and the discharge will increase in May. For the 100% glacierized scenario, the discharge will increase by 66 ± 35% in a smaller (3.34 km2) and more glaciated (50%) catchment and 33 ± 20% in a larger (28.90 km2) and proportionally less glaciated (18%) catchment. If the glacier area reduces by half, the discharge will decrease by 8 ± 5% and 9 ± 6%, respectively. Once the glacier disappears, the discharge will decrease by 58 ± 20% and 40 ± 13%, respectively. Together, the results indicate that a warming climate and the resulting glacier shrinkage will cause significant changes in the volume and timing of runoff.

Lidar snow cover studies on glaciers in the Ötztal Alps (Austria): comparison with snow depths calculated from GPR measurements

Abstract. The storage of water within the seasonal snow cover is a substantial source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Information about the spatial distribution of snow accumulation is necessary for calibration and validation of hydro-meteorological models. Generally, only a small number of precipitation measurements deliver precipitation input for modelling in mountain areas. The spatial interpolation and extrapolation of measurements of precipitation is still difficult. Multi-temporal application of lidar techniques from aircraft, so-called airborne laser scanning (ALS), provides surface elevations changes even in inaccessible terrain. These ALS surface elevation changes can be used to derive changes in snow depths of the mountain snow cover for seasonal or subseasonal time periods. However, since glacier surfaces are not static over time, ablation, densification of snow, densification of firn and ice flow contribute to surface elevation changes. ALS-derived surface elevation changes were compared to snow depths derived from 35.4 km of ground penetrating radar (GPR) profiles on four glaciers. With this combination of two different data acquisitions, it is possible to evaluate the effect of the summation of these processes on ALS-derived snow depth maps in the high alpine region of the Ötztal Alps (Austria). A Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper image was used to distinguish between snow covered area and bare ice areas of the glaciers at the end of the ablation season. In typical accumulation areas, ALS surface elevation changes differ from snow depths calculated from GPR measurements by −0.4 m on average with a mean standard deviation of 0.34 m. Differences between ALS surface elevation changes and GPR derived snow depths are small along the profiles conducted in areas of bare ice. In these areas, the mean absolute difference of ALS surface elevation changes and GPR snow depths is 0.004 m with a standard deviation of 0.27 m. This study presents a systematic approach to analyze deviations from ALS generated snow depth maps to ground truth measurements on four different glaciers. We could show that ALS can be an important and reliable data source for the spatial distribution of snow depths for most parts of the here investigated glaciers. However, within accumulation areas, just utilizing ALS data may lead to systematic underestimation of total snow depth distribution.