Hazard Scenarios Research Articles

A Risk‐Informed Community Framework for the Assessment of Chemical Hazards

We present the Data and Risk‐Informed Chemical Assessment Technique (DRICAT), a quantitative/qualitative risk analysis technique for assessing the risk of a potential chemical release incident that may lead to a mass casualty event in United States communities. Risk assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis approach aimed at identifying and assessing risks in “systems” for the purpose of improving management of these systems. DRICAT leads to better understanding and effective management of risks from chemical incidents through risk and scenario identification and ranking by severity by helping community planning to minimize morbidity and mortality during and after potential events. As such, DRICAT is designed to be reproducible, evidence‐based, practical, and scalable for different types of communities and the possible chemical hazards present in that community. Recognizing that many communities have assessment protocols and response mechanisms already in place, we believe these DRICAT characteristics will enhance both existing chemical incident awareness and readiness activities while providing a baseline approach for communities lacking chemical release risk analysis techniques.To understand where potential hazards might exist within a community, it is useful to consider drivers for hazards (i.e., those factors that influence the presence of the hazards and the uncertainty). DRICAT uses essential elements of information (EEI) to identify chemical initiating events (IE) which are a part of potential hazardous scenarios. Both formal and informal approaches can be used to identify initiators arising from chemical hazards. DRICAT focuses on precursor events and a deductive approach using a hazard identification diagram. EEI data sources for community chemical hazards range from informal (e.g., social media, and local news outlets) to formal vetted databases. EEIs include systematic identification of hazards, community factors that affect hazards (e.g., population density, weather, and commodity flows), associated IEs, and grouping of individual causes into like categories. IE characteristics may vary among communities and include IEs that may lead directly to a chemical release or may require additional mitigative failures. DRICAT leverages EEIs to identify IEs to build and rank chemical accident scenarios from IE to the potential outcome. The likelihood of this release and the consequence of the release determine the overall risk.

Stability and Deformation Responses of Earth Slopes Subjected to Multiple Natural and Manmade Hazards

Multiple hazards such as rainfall, earthquake, and excavation may occur simultaneously, and the stability (factor of safety) and deformation (movement) behaviors must be investigated to prevent loss of life and properties. In this study, the stability and deformation behaviors of earth slopes subjected to the individual and simultaneous occurrence of these events are investigated using a coupled Geotechnical–Hydrological finite-element method (FEM). First, the finite-element model was validated against a case history and a widely used limit-equilibrium method (LEM) considering site-specific soil properties and rainfall records. The shape and the size of the critical failure surface obtained from the field investigation coincided well with those calculated using FEM and LEM. Also, the predicted onset of slope failure (after eight days of rainfall) coincided well with the real-time occurrence of the slope failure. The validated finite-element model was then used to predict the stability and deformation responses of earth slopes subjected to several possible scenarios, including individual and simultaneous occurrences of these events. The rainfall–excavation scenario indicated that the slope would have failed two days before the recorded time if the slope had a vertical cut width of 4.25 m. The rainfall–earthquake hazard scenario caused the slope to move horizontally by 799 mm. The parametric study conducted by varying the friction angle of the slope soil by ± one standard deviation (STD) with 10% covariance showed that the slope would have failed one day later and two days prior to the mean friction angle, respectively, when subjected to rainfall. Also, varying the friction angle by +1 STD and −1 STD failed the slope for 0.5 m above and 0.4 m below the cut width for the slope with mean friction angle when subjected to excavation, respectively. Further, the percent increase in the horizontal movement of the slope soil with friction angle by +1 STD and −1 STD compared to mean friction angle was 56% and 18%, respectively, when subjected to earthquake.

Process Hazard Analysis Based on Modeling and Simulation Tools

Chemical and oil processes are intrinsically sources of potential hazards. Although traditional qualitative hazard identification methods are simple, systematic, and flexible, such methodologies present limitations related to the inherent subjectivity, dependence on the team’s level of experience, and widespread time consumption of the members involved. In this context, the present work aims to develop a systematic way to use computational modeling and simulation tools for hazard identification. After extensive literature review, the present work proposes a methodology based on the association of the main points of previous works, with new contributions regarding the preparation for the simulations and the characterization of the minimum set of process variables that can enable appropriate interpretation of the results. The propene polymerization process (LIPP-SHAC process) was used as a case study to illustrate the proposed procedure. The paper explores how the model can be adapted for safety analyses and simulations for different hazard scenarios. The results obtained with different models are discussed and compared to those obtained with a traditional hazard identification approach to discuss how computational process modeling and simulation tools can sum to heuristic analysis. In conclusion, the use of simulations complementing the human-based approach can indeed enhance the understanding of mechanisms of hazardous scenarios, lessen conservative decision-making, and avoid overlooking device failures that can pose a severe hazard to the process.

Crowd Evacuation in Hajj Stoning Area: Planning through Modeling and Simulation

Pilgrimage is one of the largest mass gatherings, where millions of Muslims gather annually from all over the world to perform Hajj. The stoning ritual during Hajj has been historically vulnerable to serious disasters that often cause severe impacts ranging from injuries to death tolls. In efforts to minimize the number and extent of the disasters, the stoning area has been expanded recently. However, no research has been carried out to study the evacuation effectiveness of the current exit placements in the area, which lies at the heart of effective minimization of the number and extent of the disasters. Therefore, this paper presents an in-depth study on emergency evacuation planning for the extended stoning area. It presents a simulation model of the expanded stoning area with the current exit placement. In addition, we suggested and examined four different exit placements considering evacuation scenarios in case of no hazard as well as two realistic hazard scenarios covering fire and bomb hazards. The simulation studied three stoning phases, beginning of stoning, during the peak hour of stoning, and ending of stoning at three scales of population sizes. The performance was measured in the light of evacuation time, percentage of evacuees, and percentage of crowd at each exit. The experimental results revealed that the current exits are not optimally positioned, and evacuation can be significantly improved through introducing a few more exits, or even through changing positions of the current ones.

Nursing Students' Willingness and Ability to Care in Disasters: Based on All Hazard Scenarios.

Background: At the time of an emergency, nurses are one of the most important first responder groups. Thus, their readiness to deal with emergency situations will increase disaster resiliency and continuity of care. The purpose of this study was to determine if whether nursing students at Iran University of Medical Sciences were willing and capable of providing care in a disaster or an emergency circumstance based on their disaster training courses. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted during 2017 and 2018 in Iran University of Medical Sciences, Iran. Using a simple random sample procedure, 110 nursing students who passed disaster-related courses as part of their degree program (senior year students) were included in this study. Data were collected using the Disaster Survey questionnaire, developed by Qureshi (2005). The questionnaire consists of 8 disaster scenarios and 11 questions. Reliability testing was done using Cronbach's alpha (8). Scenarios were adapted to the context. Data were analyzed using SPSS 23 and descriptive statistics. Results: The response rate was 93%. Participants’ mean age was 21 years. The highest score in the ability to care (61%) was related to explosion incidents and the lowest score inability (22.9%) was related to radioactive incidents. The highest score of willingness to care (63.5%) in students was related to scenario 4 (explosion incident). The lowest score of willingness to care (32.7%) was for scenario 7 (radioactive bomb explosion) and scenario 2 (infectious disease). Conclusion: This study showed that nursing students do not have enough willingness and ability to provide care in radioactive and biological emergencies. There were some shortcomings in nursing education courses, especially in content related to radioactive and biological events.

Multi‐agent modeling of hazard–household–infrastructure nexus for equitable resilience assessment

AbstractInfrastructure service disruptions impact households in an affected community disproportionally. To enable integrating social equity considerations in infrastructure resilience assessments, this study created a new computational multi‐agent simulation model, which enables integrated assessment of hazard, infrastructure system, and household elements and their interactions. With a focus on hurricane‐induced power outages, the model consists of three elements: (1) the hazard component simulates exposure of the community to a hurricane with varying intensity levels; (2) the physical infrastructure component simulates the power network and its probabilistic failures and restoration under different hazard scenarios; and (3) the households component captures the dynamic processes related to preparation, information‐seeking, and response actions of households facing hurricane‐induced power outages. We used empirical data from household surveys from three hurricanes (Harvey, Florence, and Michael) in conjunction with theoretical decision‐making models to abstract and simulate the underlying mechanisms affecting the experienced hardship of households when facing power outages. The multi‐agent simulation model was then tested in the context of Harris County, Texas, and verified and validated using empirical results from Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Then, the model was used to examine the effects of different factors—such as forewarning durations, social network types, and restoration and resource allocation strategies—on reducing the societal impacts of service disruptions in an equitable manner. The results show that improving the restoration prioritization strategy to focus on vulnerable populations is an effective approach, especially during high‐intensity events, to enhance equitable resilience. The results show the capability of the proposed computational model for capturing the dynamic and complex interactions in the nexus of households, hazards, and infrastructure systems to better integrate human‐centric aspects in resilience planning and assessment of infrastructure systems in disasters. Hence, the proposed model and its results could provide a new tool for infrastructure managers and operators, as well as for disaster managers, in devising hazard mitigation and response strategies to reduce the societal impacts of power outages in an equitable manner.

Assessing the validity of navigation risk assessments: A study of offshore wind farms in the UK

The developments of offshore wind farms can place increased pressures on conflicting marine users, particularly in already crowded waterways. Risk analysis of potential hazard scenarios are conducted by developers and regulators in the form of Navigation Risk Assessments which seek to identify, measure and mitigate impacts through data collection, consultation, modelling and risk assessment. These activities have inherent uncertainties and limitations which are rarely discussed and have the potential to undermine the value and credibility of the risk assessment. To evaluate the accuracy of Navigation Risk Assessments, their predictions are compared with the historical incident record of accidents involving wind farms. This review identifies significant methodological limitations and sources of uncertainty endemic in the Navigation Risk Assessment process which results in an over-estimation of risk. These include a lack of inclusion of historical evidence, issues during elicitation of expert judgment and methodological limitations of both quantitative risk models and the underlying risk assessment. Based on our evaluation, future research directions are highlighted to support decision makers on marine spatial planning by increasing the robustness of Navigation Risk Assessments.

The impact of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone pollution and temperature: a copula-based approach

Abstract. Ozone pollution and high temperatures have adverse health impacts that can be amplified by the combined effects of ozone and temperature. Moreover, changes in weather patterns are expected to alter ozone pollution episodes and temperature extremes. In particular, atmospheric blocking is a high-impact, large-scale phenomenon at mid-high latitudes that has been associated with temperature extremes. This study examines the impact of atmospheric blocking on the ozone and temperature dependence among measurement stations over Europe during the period 1999–2015. We use a copula-based method to model the dependence between the two variables under blocking and non-blocking conditions. This approach allows us to examine the impact of blocks on the joint probability distribution. Our results showed that blocks lead to increasing strength in the upper tail dependence of ozone and temperature extremes (> 95th percentile) in north-west and central Europe (e.g. the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany and the north-west of France). The analysis of the probability hazard scenarios revealed that blocks generally enhance the probability of compound ozone and temperature events by 20 % in a large number of stations over central Europe. The probability of ozone or temperature exceedances increases 30 % (on average) under the presence of atmospheric blocking. Furthermore, we found that, in a number of stations over north-western Europe, atmospheric blocking increases the probability of ozone exceedances by 30 % given high temperatures. Our results point out the strong influence of atmospheric blocking on the compounding effect of ozone and temperature events, suggesting that blocks might be considered a relevant predicting factor when assessing the risks of ozone-heat-related health effects.

A methodological proposal to evaluate the health hazard scenario from COVID-19 in Italy

2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had a big impact in Italy, mainly concentrated in the northern part of the Country. All this was mainly due to similarities of this area with Wuhan in Hubei Province, according to geographical, environmental and socio-economic points of view. The basic hypothesis of this research was that the presence of atmospheric pollutants can generate stress on health conditions of the population and determine pre-conditions for the development of diseases of the respiratory system and complications related to them. In most cases the attention on environmental aspects is mainly concentrated on pollution, neglecting issues such as land management which, in some way, can contribute to reducing the impact of pollution. The reduction of land take and the decrease in the loss of ecosystem services can represent an important aspect in improving environmental quality. In order to integrate policies for environmental change and human health, the main factors analyzed in this paper can be summarized in environmental, climatic and land management. The main aim of this paper was to produce three different hazard scenarios respectively related to environmental, climatic and land management-related factors. A Spatial Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method has been applied over thirteen informative layers grouped in aggregation classes of environmental, climatic and land management.The results of the health hazard maps show a disparity in the distribution of territorial responses to the pandemic in Italy. The environmental components play an extremely relevant role in the definition of the red zones of hazard, with a consequent urgent need to renew sustainable development strategies.The comparison of hazard maps related to different scenarios provides decision makers with tools to orient policy choices with a different degree of priority according to a place-based approach. In particular, the geospatial representation of risks could be a tool for legitimizing the measures chosen by decision-makers, proposing a renewed approach that highlights and takes account of the differences between the spatial contexts to be considered - Regions, Provinces, Municipalities - also in terms of climatic and environmental variables.

Modeling NaTech-related domino effects in process clusters: A network-based approach

Extreme disasters and their resulting cascading accidents are always being a considerable threat to process cluster safety. However, many current assessments of the domino effects within process clusters do not consider the uncertainty of the primary accidents triggered by natural hazards. Additionally, high-efficiency methods to model the complex dependencies of large-scale process clusters are still lacking. Hence, this paper expands a hazard scenario module at the front end of the assessment framework of a domino effect to consider the response of installations to hazard loads. Simultaneously, a network-based approach is developed to model the NaTech-related domino effect. The constructed network imposes two constraints, escalation and probability thresholds, to reduce the computational complexity of traversing potential propagation pathways. As a result, the proposed method can be applied to large-scale process clusters. The safety analysis of an oil storage base subject to hurricanes and concurrent flooding shows that the proposed method can clarify the role of each unit in a local and cross-community domino effect at the node and community levels, respectively. The results inform the implementation of emergency responses to accidents. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty indicate that the network structure of the NaTech-related domino effect is sensitive to hazard intensity.

Does gender affect the driving performance of young patients with diabetes?

Recent evidence suggests that poor glycemic control among young patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) has negative cognitive and physical effects, whose extent is gender-dependent. For example, female patients with diabetes present more physical and cognitive limitations than male patients in terms of cognitive adjustment, quality of decision making, and functioning. Studies about traffic safety report that diabetic drivers are at increased risk of being involved in road crashes, especially when driving in a state of hypoglycemia under which their blood glucose level is too low. We have recently demonstrated that acute hyperglycemia (when the blood glucose level is too high) can also lead to poor driving performance among T1DM young adult patients. Against this background, the objective of the present study was to find out whether gender affects the driving performance of young drivers with diabetes. Twenty-six T1DM drivers participated in a counterbalanced crossover experiment. While being monitored by an eye tracker, they drove a driving simulator and twice navigated through the nine hazardous scenarios: once under a normal blood glucose (euglycemia) level and once high blood glucose (hyperglycemia) level. The first main result is that young female drivers are more affected by diabetes than young male drivers, regardless of momentary glycemic changes. The second main result is that poor glycemic control substantially deteriorates hazard perception and driving performance of young males with diabetes. Thus, it is argued that an uncontrolled state of a high blood glucose level may be more hazardous for young males with diabetes since it negatively impacts their driving performance.

Performance-Based Bi-Objective Retrofit Optimization of Building Portfolios Considering Uncertainties and Environmental Impacts

It is essential to assess the performance of a community under probable hazard scenarios and to provide possible performance enhancements. This requires establishing performance indicators, an assessment method, and an optimization technique to provide mitigation alternatives. In this paper, multiple performance indicators are utilized to assess the performance of a community building portfolio including loss, downtime, and environmental impact (e.g., CO2 emissions). The performance of a community is assessed by utilizing a performance-based assessment methodology. Then, the performance indicators are utilized as performance objectives to be optimized considering non-dominated sorting and crowding distance evolutionary optimization techniques. The framework utilizes retrofit alternatives for each building in a community and provides Pareto-optimal solutions for considered performance objectives given retrofit cost. This process of performance assessment and optimization is repeated by utilizing the Monte Carlo approach to consider uncertainties. Finally, the Pareto-optimal solutions are utilized to evaluate the retrofit programs for community building portfolios in terms of considered performance indicators.

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

Quantum Computing and Resilient Design Perspectives for Cybersecurity of Feedback Systems

Cybersecurity of control systems is an important issue in next-generation manufacturing that can impact both operational objectives (safety and performance) as well as process designs (via hazard analysis). Cyberattacks differ from faults in that they can be coordinated efforts to exploit system vulnerabilities to create otherwise unlikely hazard scenarios. Because coordination and targeted process manipulation can be characteristics of attacks, some of the tactics previously analyzed in our group from a control system cybersecurity perspective have incorporated randomness to attempt to thwart attacks. The underlying assumption for the generation of this randomness has been that it can be achieved on a classical computer; however, quantum computers can also create random behavior in the results of computations. This work explores how errors in quantum hardware that can create non-deterministic outputs from quantum computers interact with control system cybersecurity. These studies serve as a reminder of the need to incorporate cybersecurity considerations at the process design stage.

Security- and Safety-Driven Functional Architecture Development Exemplified by Automotive Systems Engineering

Advancing digitization is creating fascinating potential benefits, especially in the automotive domain, through technologies such as Car2x and autonomous driving. However, new information and communication technologies result in a continuous increase in product complexity and in challenges for the development of current and future mobility systems. Systems Engineering represents a well-established approach for meeting these challenges. In particular, an early function-oriented engineering ensures a holistic, systemic development across all involved disciplines. A functional architecture is modeled as an essential artifact for this purpose, which represents the system to be developed independently of concrete technical solutions and allows early design decisions. An essential requirement in the development of current and future mobility systems is ensuring system dependability by addressing security and safety holistically at an early stage. Since this is mostly done very late in subsequent development phases, the goal of this work is to show the synergy potential by addressing security and safety in functional architecture development exemplified by Automotive Systems Engineering. For this purpose, based on the challenges of system development of complex mobility systems, established approaches of the state of the art are consistently integrated within the scope of a continuous systematics. A use case-oriented function modeling based on the state of art (e.g., FAS method) is used as a basis. The developed approach allows a systematic capture of architecture drivers as well as the modeling of the functional architecture by a holistic identification and structuring of functions. It enables security- and safety-relevant aspects (e.g., from threat and hazard scenarios) to be integrated especially in early phases on the basis of a functional architecture and to be taken into account in the context of design decisions.

Investigating Climate Change Risk of “ Oil and Gas” City: Case of Dumai City, Indonesia

Based on Climate Resilient Development Policies on 2020-2045, there are four priority sectors threatened by climate change, namely marine and coastal, water, agriculture, and health. Indonesia still depends on oil and gas energy that will threats to infrastructures that support the sustainability of production that can have an impact on people’s lifelines. This study investigates the risk distribution shift of climate change impacts in Dumai, which generally have oil refineries and ports. Risk is calculated by using hazard and vulnerability components. A uniform weighting approach is used to calculate each indicator indices. Using the RCP 8.5 hazard scenario with threats in the form of sea-level rise, moderate flooding, and high-end results in the projection year, this research results in significant differences in affected areas and at risk. The main factors affect the increasing of element at risk are the inundation and the spatial changes. An increase in the risk area means there will be an increase in losses. Moreover, disasters in oil and gas cities have the possibility of collateral hazards and even disruption of the national energy system. The government must take several adaptation steps such as adding eco-buffer zones, walls around refineries, and periodic monitoring of critical infrastructure.

Virtual Reality Overhead Crane Simulator

In recent decades, government investments in occupational safety and health programs, as well as the development and training of workers’ skills have taken place. Furthermore, the demand for training methods tailored to the needs of workers led the researchers to question the effectiveness of conventional training methods and investigate new ones. Innovative training systems such as virtual reality-based ones allow certain constraints to be overcome and researchers to investigate the psychophysiological factors and environmental settings that can influence workers’ performances. Virtual reality-based training systems are used in various fields. Heavy load handling is predominant in different industrial sectors, and false use of cranes can cause serious accidents with fatal consequences. After a preliminary investigation of the most hazardous scenarios in Italy, a Virtual Reality Overhead Crane Simulator has been built. In previous research, the simulator was used to investigate different typologies of noise (low frequency, high frequency and modulated) on the overhead crane operators’ performance and physiological responses. The preliminary results of this investigation revealed that high-frequency noise influences more than others the errors of oblique manoeuvres and excessive oscillation. The same results, although not conclusive, showed that modulated noise seems to highly affect the variations of the GSR and the LF/HF ratio of heart rate. This paper aims to illustrate the workflow used to build up the Virtual Reality Overhead Crane Simulator from the 3d modelling to the construction of the virtual scenario and the interacting programming used to investigate some critical aspects of the handling of heavy loads in industrial environments highlighting the criticalities found during the studies carried until now and the future approaches

Integrated wellbore-reservoir simulations to design sand retention tests for flowback scenarios in SAGD injection wells

In the past, sand retention testing (SRT) research for steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) injector was a parametric study, or general solution, rather than a case-specific solution for a particular problem in terms of testing parameters. Testing parameters were assigned based on hypothetical assumptions due to a lack of necessary field data to perform such a study. Field data are often confidential and nearly impossible to obtain for a hazardous scenario like a thermal injector flowback. The literature is rich with multiple proposed slotted liner (SL) design criteria for SAGD production wells. The SRT designed for SAGD producer takes into consideration some measurable factors to specify suitable aperture size. In contrast, SRT for the SAGD injector seems to rely on industry experience or rules of thumb. A systematic methodology, consisting of three steps, was developed for SL design using the SRT setup for SAGD injector wells. The first step involves estimating the laboratory testing variables or operational parameters based on case-specific data and reservoir simulations to assess the consequences of steam flowback. A 2D Computer Modelling Group (CMG) thermal simulator was coupled with gas flow correlation and used to predict the outcomes of SAGD injector flowback. The second step involves developing a new SRT setup dedicated to SAGD injector flowback laboratory testing. Intensive testing was performed to troubleshoot the problems associated with a high-velocity gas flow. The third and final step involves conducting six tests to verify the developed setup's performance. The consideration of thermodynamic equilibrium improved testing by avoiding inconsistent assumptions used in the previous studies. Neither low steam quality (SQ) nor high SQ flowback scenarios used in the past are found to fully represent SAGD injector flowback. SAGD injector depth and other operational parameters are linked to flowback differential pressure. In other words, one set of testing parameters cannot be representative for all SAGD injector, which makes developing design criteria a challenge. The preliminary results of SRT for SAGD injector indicate the possibility of using small aperture size slots of 0.010 inch that do not cause significant permeability reduction at laboratory scale, unlike the case for SAGD producer SRT. This may justify why the industry tends to prefer small aperture size slotted liner for SAGD injector completion. Eventually, this research should be considered as a first step only in SRT for SAGD injector flowback, and necessary methodology enhancements and facility upgrades should be investigated in future work.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment using Open-Source Data in the Far Western Nepal Himalaya: Case Studies from Selected Local Level Units

This paper explores openly available geo-spatial and earth observatory data to understand landslide risk in data scarce rural areas of Nepal. It attempts to explore the application of open-source data and analytical models to inform future landslide research. The first step of this procedure starts from the review of global open datasets, literatures and case studies relevant to landslide research. The second step is followed by the case study in one of the mountainous municipalities of Nepal where we tested the identified open-source data and models to produce landslide susceptibility maps. Past studies and experiences show that the major potential sites of landslide in Nepal are highly concentrated in a geologically weak area such as the active fault regions, shear zones, axis of folds and unfavorable setting of lithology. Triggering factors like concentrated precipitation, frequent earthquake phenomenon and haphazard infrastructural development activities in the marginally stable mountain slopes have posed serious issues of landslides mostly through the geologically weak regions. In this context, openly available geo-spatial datasets can provide baseline information for exploring the landslide hazard scenario in the data scarce areas of Nepal. This research has used the available open-source data to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Bithadchir Rural Municipality in Bajhang District and Budiganga Municipality in Bajura District of the Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal. We used qualitative analysis to evaluate the parameters and assess the susceptibility of landslide; the result was classified into five susceptibility zones: Very High, High, Moderate, Low, and Very Low. Slope and Aspect were identified to be the major determinants for the assessment. This approach is applicable, specifically, for the preliminary investigation in the data scarce region using open data sources. Furthermore, the result can be used to plan and prioritize effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

Research on drivers' hazard perception in plateau environment based on visual characteristics

A good visual search mode is an important prerequisite for a driver to perceive the hazard in the traffic environment timely and accurately. However, hypoxia conditions in the plateau environment might affect drivers' cognitive and judgment ability, posing potential threats to safe driving. This study analyzed the eye movement behaviors of drivers when faced with traffic hazards in the plateau environment, to examine the impact level of altitude on drivers’ perception and reaction. Nine typical traffic hazard scenarios were investigated at four locations with four different altitudes, including Linzhi, Lhasa, Naqu, and Yanghu Scenic Area based on UC-WIN / ROAD driving simulation software. Then, drivers’ visual search modes were analyzed according to drivers’ eye movement data collected by ASL Mobile Eye monocular eye tracker. As the altitude increased, the drivers’ first fixation time and the average saccade amplitude decreased, while the fixation duration percentage increased. Drivers with fewer years of driving experience had a larger percentage of fixation duration and a smaller saccade amplitude. In addition, a shorter acclimation period also negatively influenced the percentage of fixation time. The increase of altitude would weaken the drivers' visual sensitivity and cognitive processing ability of hazard information, which would reduce drivers' hazard perception skills, and the increase of driving experience might help alleviate such negative impacts to some extent. Based on the visual characteristics of traffic hazard scenarios obtained in this paper, the training of highly accident-prone drivers can be guided specifically to improve their visual search strategies, thereby improving driving safety.