Investigating Climate Change Risk of “ Oil and Gas” City: Case of Dumai City, Indonesia

Abstract

Based on Climate Resilient Development Policies on 2020-2045, there are four priority sectors threatened by climate change, namely marine and coastal, water, agriculture, and health. Indonesia still depends on oil and gas energy that will threats to infrastructures that support the sustainability of production that can have an impact on people’s lifelines. This study investigates the risk distribution shift of climate change impacts in Dumai, which generally have oil refineries and ports. Risk is calculated by using hazard and vulnerability components. A uniform weighting approach is used to calculate each indicator indices. Using the RCP 8.5 hazard scenario with threats in the form of sea-level rise, moderate flooding, and high-end results in the projection year, this research results in significant differences in affected areas and at risk. The main factors affect the increasing of element at risk are the inundation and the spatial changes. An increase in the risk area means there will be an increase in losses. Moreover, disasters in oil and gas cities have the possibility of collateral hazards and even disruption of the national energy system. The government must take several adaptation steps such as adding eco-buffer zones, walls around refineries, and periodic monitoring of critical infrastructure.