Assessing the validity of navigation risk assessments: A study of offshore wind farms in the UK

Abstract

The developments of offshore wind farms can place increased pressures on conflicting marine users, particularly in already crowded waterways. Risk analysis of potential hazard scenarios are conducted by developers and regulators in the form of Navigation Risk Assessments which seek to identify, measure and mitigate impacts through data collection, consultation, modelling and risk assessment. These activities have inherent uncertainties and limitations which are rarely discussed and have the potential to undermine the value and credibility of the risk assessment. To evaluate the accuracy of Navigation Risk Assessments, their predictions are compared with the historical incident record of accidents involving wind farms. This review identifies significant methodological limitations and sources of uncertainty endemic in the Navigation Risk Assessment process which results in an over-estimation of risk. These include a lack of inclusion of historical evidence, issues during elicitation of expert judgment and methodological limitations of both quantitative risk models and the underlying risk assessment. Based on our evaluation, future research directions are highlighted to support decision makers on marine spatial planning by increasing the robustness of Navigation Risk Assessments.