A novel fuzzy multi-factor navigational risk assessment method for ship route optimization in costal offshore wind farm waters

Abstract

The navigational risk assessment in the waters of offshore wind farms (OWFs) is difficult to be quantified due to multiple factors, to solve this problem, this paper proposes a method of ship navigational risk assessment in the waters of offshore wind farms based on multi-factor fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. First, six influence factors of navigational risk in OWFs waters are analyzed, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and expert evaluation table are applied to determine the weights of influence factors. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out to construct the method of navigational risk assessment. Finally, a comprehensive fuzzy multi-factor method of ship navigational risk assessment in OWFs waters is developed. Taking the OWFs in Changle of Fujian Province as an experimental case study, the navigational risk before and after sailing route optimization are comprehensively evaluated, and the evaluation results show that the value of navigational risk decrease from 3.1731 to 2.0409 after the sailing route optimization. At the same time, we have proposed related navigational risk management strategies to reduce the risk of ships in the waters of wind farms based on the risk assessment results, which have important theoretical significance for the ship navigation safety supervision and management of ships in the OWFs waters and the optimization of ship sailing routes in future.