Abstract
This paper describes new methodology of creating the criteria for assessing navigational risk. Various factors influencing the navigational risk assessment are described. The method of calculating and evaluating ship risk probability is presented in this paper. Practical methods of ship navigational risk probability and assessment with the explanation for particular regions are described. The paper concludes with identifying sea regions with more risk based on a large number of factors.
Highlights
Every year the transportation of crude oil, oil products and other dangerous goods in seas and oceans increases and very often terminals for dangerous goods are constructed in very complicated navigational sea regions which create potential navigational risk
In the eighties crude oil and oil products terminals started developing in Ventspils, Klaipeda, Gdansk, Rostock, and other ports and a gas terminal was developed at Ventspils port
New oil terminals constructed under more difficult navigational conditions, dramatically increase navigational and sea pollution risk carrying oil and oil products
Summary
A large number of the existing oil and other dangerous goods terminals and very fast increasing of transportation of crude oil, oil products and chemical products in closed seas, such as the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and others, increase the probability of accidents for ships with dangerous goods. This probability varies for different seas and sea regions. Surveys of navigational risk and accident probability for oil tankers and other ships that transport dangerous goods are important in order to make it possible to take special precautionary measures in different places for decreasing the probability of navigational risk and accidents, since some places cannot be recommended for handling of oil or for the development of terminals for other dangerous goods, including handling of dangerous goods, because the risk is too high
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