Gross Domestic Product Of Countries Research Articles

Generalized method to estimate value of urban assets for natural disaster risk assessment at the macro scale

Natural disasters can have a damaging effect on human society. To understand the magnitude of risk of a natural disaster at the macro scale, basic socioeconomic parameters such as population or gross domestic product (GDP) are often used as proxies to evaluate value of specific asset classes (e.g., urban assets, agricultural land, etc.). However, such information is not always available and it becomes a challenge to perform cost-benefit analysis of tailored strategies to protect an asset class from natural disaster risk. Recent studies showed the prospects of relating GDP and population to produced capital representing urban assets. However, the methods used in earlier studies are unclear and resulted in different outcomes that need further clarification and generalization. This study aims to demonstrate the potential of developing a more generalized method to characterize the relation between produced capital and basic socioeconomic parameters at the global scale. We include purchasing power parity (PPP) into the country GDP and produced capital data, respectively. We develop a more generalized method that incorporates the uncertainty range to quantify the produced capital. This is an improvement from previous studies. The new approach might be useful for macro scale risk assessment within the context of climate change.

Hierarchical structure of the European countries based on debts as a percentage of GDP during the 2000–2011 period

We investigate hierarchical structures of the European countries by using debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the countries as they change over a certain period of time. We obtain the topological properties among the countries based on debt as a percentage of GDP of European countries over the period 2000–2011 by using the concept of hierarchical structure methods (minimal spanning tree, (MST) and hierarchical tree, (HT)). This period is also divided into two sub-periods related to 2004 enlargement of the European Union, namely 2000–2004 and 2005–2011, in order to test various time-window and observe the temporal evolution. The bootstrap techniques is applied to see a value of statistical reliability of the links of the MSTs and HTs. The clustering linkage procedure is also used to observe the cluster structure more clearly. From the structural topologies of these trees, we identify different clusters of countries according to their level of debts. Our results show that by the debt crisis, the less and most affected Eurozone’s economies are formed as a cluster with each other in the MSTs and hierarchical trees.

The Effects of Disaggregation on Forecasting Nonstationary Time Series

ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on the effects of disaggregation on forecast accuracy for nonstationary time series using dynamic factor models. We compare the forecasts obtained directly from the aggregated series based on its univariate model with the aggregation of the forecasts obtained for each component of the aggregate. Within this framework (first obtain the forecasts for the component series and then aggregate the forecasts), we try two different approaches: (i) generate forecasts from the multivariate dynamic factor model and (ii) generate the forecasts from univariate models for each component of the aggregate. In this regard, we provide analytical conditions for the equality of forecasts.The results are applied to quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data of several European countries of the euro area and to their aggregated GDP. This will be compared to the prediction obtained directly from modeling and forecasting the aggregate GDP of these European countries. In particular, we would like to check whether long‐run relationships between the levels of the components are useful for improving the forecasting accuracy of the aggregate growth rate. We will make forecasts at the country level and then pool them to obtain the forecast of the aggregate. The empirical analysis suggests that forecasts built by aggregating the country‐specific models are more accurate than forecasts constructed using the aggregated data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Free-Riding in Alliances: Testing an Old Theory with a New Method

We revisit the old and well-established theory of free-riding in military alliances. Existing empirical evidence infers free-riding from the larger military expenditures per gross domestic product of countries of larger size. Yet, larger countries have broader military and geo-strategic interests that result in larger defense burdens, thus creating an identification problem for existing tests of free-riding behavior. We therefore develop alternative predictions that ignore differences in the level of military spending and instead relate to changes in spending over time. The safety level of smaller members of an alliance is affected, simultaneously, by changes to military spending of the largest alliance member as well as by spending changes of the main enemy. Using the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as test case, we estimate country-specific response functions of the smaller alliance members to growth in United States (US) military spending on the one hand and to growth of Soviet spending (if in excess of US growth) on the other hand, covering the period 1956 to 1988. Results from our quasi-spatial approach corroborate one part of the theory in that we find the vast majority of the smaller NATO allies to be free-riders. However, our empirical evidence flatly contradicts the other part of the free-riding theory: the extent of free-riding is not a function of country size. Smaller allies free-ride, but the relatively larger of the smaller allies do not free-ride any less than the relatively even smaller alliance partners.

Macroenvironmental Factors Including GDP per Capita and Physical Activity in Europe

Socioeconomic inequalities in physical activity at the individual level are well reported. Whether inequalities in economic development and other macroenvironmental variables between countries are also related to physical activity at the country level is comparatively unstudied. We examined the relationship between country-level data on macroenvironmental factors (gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, public sector expenditure on health, percentage living in urban areas, and cars per 1000 population) with country-level physical activity prevalence obtained from previous pan-European studies. Studies that assessed leisuretime physical activity (n = 3 studies including 27 countries in adults, n = 2 studies including 28 countries in children) and total physical activity (n = 3 studies in adults including 16 countries) were analyzed separately as were studies among adults and children. Strong and consistent positive correlations were observed between country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity and country GDP per capita in adults (average r = 0.70; all studies, P G 0.05). In multivariate analysis, country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity among adults remained associated with country GDP per capita (two of three studies) but not urbanization or educational attainment. Among school-age populations, no association was found between country GDP per capita and country prevalence of leisure-time physical activity. In those studies that assessed total physical activity (which also includes occupational and transport physical activity), no association with country GDP per capita was observed. Clear differences in national leisure-time physical activity levels throughout Europe may be a consequence of economic development. Lack of economic development of some countries in Europe may make increasing leisure-time physical activity more difficult. Further examination of the link between country GDP per capita and national physical activity levels (across leisure-time, occupational, and transport-related domains) is warranted.

Carbon Accounting, Green Building and Sustainability: Effects on Gross National Product (GDP)

Carbon and greenhouse gas emissions are among the major environmental problems in Bangladesh, India and Australia. Due to various sources, pollutants in the air put the residents, particularly the children to serious health risks. Gathered measurement data had revealed that carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in some cities of the said countries had reached undesirable levels and now affecting the country's gross domestic product (GDP). To resolve this, various organizations considers carbon accounting and had developed relevant programs and policies that will help minimize carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in the state. In this brief discussion, major pollutants in Bangladesh, India and Australia and some of their cities were discussed. From their efforts, this paper identified that awareness not only for carbon accounting but also the effect of climate change has brought about a drastic, rethink of the way buildings are now designed and run, and with the governments, initiatives to drastically lower greenhouse gas emissions, sustainability has taken a better role in the built environment and of course to the country's GDP. Furthermore, different programs and efforts done to reduce carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in the state were cited as well.

The future of operations management: An outlook and analysis

Managing operations in both manufacturing and service organizations have evolved tremendously over the years with the change in market requirements. The market has become global, thereby compelling enterprise operations to keep up. The application of information technology/information systems (IT/IS) and outsourcing in managing operations have significantly altered the landscape of operations management (OM) strategies, techniques, and technologies. Consciousness towards environmental and safety also urges companies to examine their OM approach and manufacturing from various perspectives. Recently, energy cost and protection against terrorism have changed the portfolio of enterprise operations and therefore the approach to OM. Now, it is time to revisit the OM principles, curriculum, and training at the institution of higher learning and industries. Moreover, manufacturing has become more of a service activity, indicating significant service OM, including project management. The profile of service industries has also changed in view of the emergence of globalization, outsourcing, and IT, coupled with the rapid economic growth of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). In fact, services account for approximately 80% of the US gross domestic product (GDP); this is also a growing figure of the GDPs of other countries over the world. Again, service OM needs to be revisited in the context of the abovementioned paradigm shifts. In considering the significance of the above-mentioned changes in the market and society as a whole, an attempt is made to study the evolution of OM and subsequently to develop a framework for new OM strategies and tactics that will support the competitiveness of organizations within the next 10–20 years.

O porque dos altos custos na área médica e da saúde

We all know that health is a vital sector in the global economy and it is characterized by high management complexity in many issues. Today the cost of health around the world, is around 9.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), something around US$ 5.3 trillion. In the United States, it represents 15.7% of GDP, and in Brazil is less than 8.5%. Many are the causes responsible for the increased costs in health care. Among them the main drivers of its expansion are the new technologies led primarily by means of diagnostic imaging, cardiovascular procedures and diagnostic tests in vitro. These technological advances often raise prices even when there is a reduction of unit costs. Medical research will lead to extraordinary solutions, but so costly that its supply is not available to everyone because we all know that the availability of medical care is lower, when lower is the GDP of countries. Despite the exorbitant enhancement, who do not want to take advantage of these advances? New technologies reduce suffering and prolong life. However they cost, and all segments of society must be prepared to counter this trend. Another factor of great importance in medicine is the high values with care of elder people. Significant changes in the prevalence of diseases, especially chronic diseases, have been responsible for this item. It can be argued that it is not only the expansion costs in caring for the elderly population, but also in the care of chronic diseases. According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the population considered elderly in Brazil (60 years or older) was 6.1% of the total in 1980, 10% in 2010 and the projection for 2040 is 23.8 %. Similarly, the incidence of disease by age group increases significantly. According to the IBGE, diseases such as diabetes mellitus focuses on ages 50 to 59 years at 9.18%, from 60 to 69 years, 15.35% and above 70 years, 17.04%. In hypertension, these percentages are: 36.5%, 50.4% and 56.5% in the same age groups. These proportions are not different in other chronic diseases such as cancer and heart disease. It is also clear in recent data from the National Health System (SUS), that there is an increase in geometric progression the use of the system by patients over 60 years, both as outpatient or in hospitalization. Of course, we all want not only increase our lifetime, but its quality; we understand that there is now imperative need to establish a public health policy and its costs. Another item of great importance is in regard to the high cost of pharmaceuticals. In the last decade, the United States has tripled spending on these products from U.S. $ 40 billion to nearly $ 140 billion. Certainly the pharmaceutical companies have been very successful in promoting the use of their drugs more expensive, but the uses of generic medication undoubtedly represents a great opportunity in the reduction of drug costs, preserving the quality. There is no doubt that doctors often offer a drug that can be replaced by another less expensive or by simple changing in lifestyle. Another factor to be considered are the high costs associated with medical management (bureaucracy)1. In publication of the New England Journal of Medicine2, it can be found that spending on administration in the United States are responsible for somewhere around 50% of the cost of medicine in that country. Although there are no official data in Brazil, it seems to be higher, and represents significant portion of medical costs. We can not forget and neither omit as a factor in increased input costs, medical malpractice. Unnecessary procedures, drugs incorrectly used, wrong admissions are examples responsible for this increase; its cause, surely, lies on the poor medical training. The indiscriminate proliferation of medical schools without any operating condition is a key factor in this matter. Although Brazil do not have official data about medical malpractice and its consequences, it can be used data from the American Academy of Medical Sciences, which estimates 44,000 to 98,000 deaths per

Sequel to Kitzmiller's Anopheline Names: Their Derivations and Histories

The derivations of the names of 74 Anopheles species and one subgenus are explained together with accounts of the life and scientific work of people who have been honored by having a mosquito named after them. Descriptive accounts are given of geographical locations, whether towns, regions or counties, that have had anopheline species named after them.

Caught in a Trap. Identifying the Least Developed Countries

CAUGHT IN A TRAP. IDENTIFYING THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES by Patrick Guillaumont, Paris: Economica, 2010, xiv + 386 pp., $ 54,95, ISBN-13: 978-2717857993 In the course of reading this book, Haiti was hit by a heavy earthquake. Instantly one looks for answers to such vulnerability. Could this book perhaps help to explain why so many people had to die when the Earth had trembled? First of all, Haiti is on the list of least developed and ranks poorly on all the indicators used to define that list: it has a low average income, a low value for the human assets and a high value for the economic vulnerability index. In the comprehensive ranking, however, Haiti is not at all the worst case. But one aspect is striking: while most of the other least developed became politically independent only in the 1960s and 1970s, Haiti has been independent since 1804! Still, the country seems not to be in a position to handle major challenges --it is definitely caught in a poverty trap. Patrick Guillaumont starts his book with the basic question--what are the least developed countries--and gives the final answer right away. Today, 49 make up the category of least developed (LDCs), according to specific criteria and procedures, and as confirmed by a resolution of the UN General Assembly. Countries in that category are that suffer from severe structural handicaps to growth, particularly low human resources and high economic vulnerability. In the years since the LDC category was established, the number of on the list has doubled, now representing about 40 percent of the developing with more than 750 million people or 11.8 percent of world population. By contrast, their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is just 0.7 percent of world GDP and 3.2 percent of the GDP of all developing on an exchange rate basis (UNDP 2007). Compared on the basis of purchasing power parity, the differences are a little smaller, with the LDCs share at about 1.8 percent of world GDP and 4.0 percent of the developing country GDP. Most LDCs are or medium-sized in population, are located in Africa, are land-locked, insular or arid. Haiti is the only Latin American country among the LDCs. In the literature and in international relations, other (unofficial) structural categories of developing are being used. While the LDCs are an official category of the United Nations, low-income countries is a classification established empirically each year by the World Bank, making a group of 60 or more. Another category used, this one geographical, is that of the small island developing countries, which has about 50 members, 36 of them independent states. A final structural category is that of the land-locked developing countries, 28 in number. Furthermore, there are three political categories of developing that partly overlap with the LDC category: the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries; the heavily indebted poor countries; and the low-income under stress, now included in the broader 'fragile states' group. For 2005, 46 were classified as fragile states according to an OECD approach and 35 according to the World Bank. The link between the categories of LDCs and fragile states can seem critical, insofar as the LDC category basically refers to structural features while the fragile states category refers to policy and governance indicators, more likely to change over time. In sum, the LDC is a structural category, not designed to reflect present policy and its assessment. As such it is rather stable, though not permanent. Countries are likely to join or exit from the list according to trends in their structural features; these features are only progressively influenced by policy, yet they influence policy. The official recognition of the LDCs as a special category of developing by the United Nations took place as early as 1971. …

Scaling laws of human interaction activity

Even though people in our contemporary technological society are depending on communication, our understanding of the underlying laws of human communicational behavior continues to be poorly understood. Here we investigate the communication patterns in 2 social Internet communities in search of statistical laws in human interaction activity. This research reveals that human communication networks dynamically follow scaling laws that may also explain the observed trends in economic growth. Specifically, we identify a generalized version of Gibrat's law of social activity expressed as a scaling law between the fluctuations in the number of messages sent by members and their level of activity. Gibrat's law has been essential in understanding economic growth patterns, yet without an underlying general principle for its origin. We attribute this scaling law to long-term correlation patterns in human activity, which surprisingly span from days to the entire period of the available data of more than 1 year. Further, we provide a mathematical framework that relates the generalized version of Gibrat's law to the long-term correlated dynamics, which suggests that the same underlying mechanism could be the source of Gibrat's law in economics, ranging from large firms, research and development expenditures, gross domestic product of countries, to city population growth. These findings are also of importance for designing communication networks and for the understanding of the dynamics of social systems in which communication plays a role, such as economic markets and political systems.

Análise da participação da agropecuária no PIB dos EUA de 1960 a 2001

Este artigo faz uma análise da evolução da participação da agropecuária no PIB dos EUA de 1960 a 2001, dando destaque à análise econométrica das principais variáveis que determinam essa participação. A tendência geral, no período de 1960 a 2001, é a diminuição da participação da agropecuária no PIB. Porém, isto não ocorre de forma contínua, pois de 1971 a 1973 essa participação aumentou. O artigo prova, econometricamente, a quebra de tendência da participação da agropecuária no PIB de 1971 a 1973 e centra sua análise no período de 1973 a 2001. Através de gráficos, observa-se grande crescimento da produção física de cereais e de carnes no período de 1970 a 2001, que se explica pelo grande crescimento da produtividade da agropecuária e dos subsídios governamentais, dado que a tendência da relação de preços recebidos/preços pagos pela agropecuária foi decrescente nesse período. Baseado em um modelo contábil que explicita as variáveis que determinam a participação da agropecuária no PIB, um modelo econométrico é definido e estimado. As principais variáveis determinando a participação da agropecuária no PIB dos EUA (em ordem decrescente de importância), no período de 1973 a 2001, são a relação de preços recebidos/preços pagos, o valor defasado dessa participação e a produtividade total dos fatores da agropecuária.

Tourism in Trinidad and Tobago: carving a niche in a petroleum‐based economy

AbstractTrinidad and Tobago lies within one of the world's most tourism‐intensive regions, the Caribbean. Yet, unlike its neighbours, it has not relied heavily on income from travel and tourism since its economy is dominated by the energy sector. The energy sector is the mainstay of the economy contributing approximately 34.1% to the country's GDP, 85.5% to merchandise exports and 37.1% to Government revenues in 2004 (Ministry of Energy, 2006). The Government, in its aim for developed nation status by 2020, recognizes that the energy sector is unable to provide the sustainable jobs needed to achieve this. Thus, the Government's policy strategy, Vision 2020, identifies tourism as one of five (5) sectors that should be developed to contribute to the country's economic development.The tourism industry currently represents 13.8% of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Trinidad and Tobago and is expected to increase its share by nearly three percentage points to 16.5% by 2015. It accounts for 16.7% of total employment, and this is forecasted to rise to 19.2% (WTTC, 2005). Several challenges are evident, that continue to limit the industry's full potential for growth in the country. It is against this background that this paper seeks to identify and analyse the strategies that can be adopted to maximize the contribution of the hospitality and tourism industry to economic development in Trinidad and Tobago. The three main strategies proposed are a greater focus on local entrepreneurship; the re‐orientation of the role of the local financial mechanisms in tourism development and; the development of competitive tourism investment incentives for potential investors in the hospitality and tourism industry. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Latin American Science Moves into the Spotlight

With new incentives, some governments in Latin America are starting to increase investment in basic and applied research. Although the news is encouraging, scientists in this region still face many challenges ahead.

Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data

This paper estimates the real gross domestic product (GDP) and unrecorded economy for Turkey using the Kalman filter technique. Using different tests, most of the research articles on energy policy investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP for different countries. On the other hand, other studies on climate change try to show the effects of both energy consumption and GDP on carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission. Since the unreported economy has an important weight in developing countries where the recorded (or official) GDP suffers from considerable measurement problems, investigation of the relationship between the recorded GDP and energy consumption may lead to biased results. In this paper, the economic variables (GDP, country population) as well as environmental variables (CO 2 emission, forest area) are used in order to estimate GDP, which is an unobserved variable in our model. The results clearly indicate that: first, the true GDP in Turkey, that our model estimates, is higher than the observed (recorded) GDP in the whole period of observation (1973–2003) and the size of unrecorded economy varies between 12 and 30 percent of the observed GDP; second, the gap between the true GDP and the observed GDP has an increasing trend; third, if the change in GDP per primary energy supply is smaller than the change in CO 2 per primary energy supply, then there may exist unrecorded economy.

Volunteers—125 Years of Dedication

In his column, AWWA Executive Director Jack Hoffbuhr discusses the power of volunteerism and how strong it has made AWWA, AWWA Research Foundation, and Water For People after a legacy of 125 years of dedicated volunteer service. He gives statistics on the percentages of the gross domestic product of countries around the world that comes from volunteerism; in the United States, the volunteer workforce represents the equivalent of more than 9 million full‐time employees at an annual value of well more than $200 billion.

Government rhetoric and their R&D expenditure. A score-card for governments' investments into science and future technologies.

If you want to harvest in the autumn, you need to sow in spring. This ancient wisdom holds true not only for agriculture, but for all economic activities. When nations turned their focus from agriculture to industry, the definition of ‘sowing’ and ‘harvesting’ changed. The latter is relatively easy to identify: it is the nation's wealth in terms of economic growth, employment level, per capita income, exports, and so on. Such achievements point the way not only to re‐election of the politicians who ensure a rich harvest, but also to the well‐being of all its citizens. Slightly harder to define is the ‘sowing’ part—the public and private investments that guarantee economic growth and high employment in the long term. After the industrial revolution took place, governments needed simply to ensure that the social, political and financial structures were in place to encourage entrepreneurs to start businesses and create new jobs in the emerging industrial sector. Now, at a time of globalization, international corporations move to where they can find the best opportunities in terms of employee salaries and governmental incentives. It follows that robust manufacturing processes are being transferred from their traditional locations in the developed world to areas that offer the best financial projections and the lowest cost structures. As a result, the so‐called advanced economies have to find new ways to maintain their privileged status. The common solution is to focus on new discoveries that bring with them ownership of commercially valuable intellectual property and require a phase of development and manufacturing in a highly skilled environment. Thus, the seeds that need to be sown are now investments, from both industry and government, into science and technology, with the aim of creating well‐paid jobs in the high‐tech sector and new products for an increasingly demanding global market. > It …

SLOVENIA'S SUCCESS STORY

In an area just slightly larger than New Jersey, Slovenia's 2 million people rattle around in a countryside of almost stunning natural beauty and in charming towns and villages frequently scattered with Roman ruins. But its small size and bucolic appearance are deceptive. Slovenia is one of the front-runners for inclusion in the European Union (EU) in the next batch of entries. It has one of the most successful records in rebuilding an economy since breaking away from Yugoslavia in 1991, after the breakup of the Eastern bloc in 1989. Its per capita gross domestic product (GDP), by one measure, has already overtaken that of two EU member countries, Portugal and Greece. Slovenia also supports a chemical industry that in 1999 contributed 11% of the country's GDP. In addition, the industry last year edged its way in front of that of much larger Slovakia in the annual statistics collected by the Brussels-based European Chemical Industry ...

Malaysia’s Public Enterprises: A Performance Evaluation

Malaysia's public enterprises (PEs) account for almost one-third of the country's GDP. This share is among the highest in the world, and clearly surpasses the importance of PEs in other ASEAN countries. In this article the performance of Malaysia's PEs is analysed. The evaluation of performance is based on trends in the number of profitable PEs; trends in the rates of return; and comparisons with private sector on the basis of profitability and cost efficiency. It is found that PEs had low rates of return during the entire period of the study, and well below the opportunity costs of funds. An estimate of the foregone output due to the inferior performance of PEs is derived and the maximum estimates are found to approach ten per cent of the GDP in 1986. Explanations for low performance, in terms of theoretical reasoning, government policies, and the Malaysian institutional setting, are also provided. Malaysia's public enterprises (PEs) account for almost one-third of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). This share is among the highest in the world, and clearly surpasses the importance of PEs in other ASEAN countries. In Malaysia, pub lic enterprises have been used as a response to market failure; for achieving income distribution goals and restructuring of society; for the pursuit of socio-economic objectives; and for the creation of a heavy industrial base. Their growth has been spectacular and unrestrained. Once set up, they acquired a dynamism of their own. Relatively autonomous corporations and holding companies have, for a variety of reasons, expanded and di versified. Often this expansion has been in areas not envisioned at the time of their establishment

The Economic Upturn in Malaysia

There have been dramatic improvements in Malaysia's economic performance since the recession in 1985 when an unprecendented negative one per cent real growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) was registered. In 1986 the growth rate increased marginally to 1.2 per cent but in 1987 the economic performance improved further and an overall GDP growth rate of 5.2 per cent was achieved.1 It was towards the middle of 1987 that the economy first showed signs of a recovery and it began picking up quite strongly in the third quarter with a GDP growth rate of 5.1 per cent; in the fourth quarter it surged higher to 7.1 per cent.2 The improvements in the last two quarters of 1987 were attributed to the favourable output performance in the manufacturing, agricultural and service sectors. The upturn in the Malaysian economy continued throughout 1988. Economic forecasters were kept busy as the year progressed. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) estimated3 in April that the country's real GDP would grow by 5.9 per cent in 1988. MIER explained that the momentum of the 1987 upswing was expected to sustain itself with the continued strength in external demand and firm commodity prices. By June, predictions of a 6 per cent growth rate were made4 by a leading banker and in July, the Deputy Governor of Bank Negara5 revealed that the economy had performed strongly in the first quarter of the year, registering a growth rate of 7.5 per cent, with indications that the surge would continue for the rest of the year. The 7.5 per cent growth rate for the first quarter had been achieved despite the moderately weak agricultural sector as a result of the adverse impact of weather on rubber and log production. However, growth in manufacturing had been particularly strong. In August, MIER reported6 that it had revised its growth forecast for 1988 to 7 per cent and said that it believed the country was set for an economic boom. Finally in October, the Finance Ministry's Economic report7 revealed that real GDP was expected to reach 7.4 per cent in 1988.