Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costs Research Articles

Modelling assessment of resource competition for renewable basic chemicals and the effect of recycling

AbstractThis work assesses pathways towards a net‐zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions chemical industry sector in Germany until 2050, focusing on the ammonia, methanol, ethylene and adipic acid subsectors and the effect of the recycling of C embedded in chemical end products on the GHG abatement cost and primary resource demand. This was done using a bottom‐up mathematical optimization model, including the energy sectors and the chemicals sector, with electricity and biobased options considered. Results show that net‐zero GHG emissions for the considered chemicals in 2050 are attainable at a marginal cost of 640–900 €/tCO2‐eq, even with 26%–36% of demand being satisfied by fossil production routes. This is possible because renewable organic chemicals can act as carbon sinks if, at their end of life, C is permanently stored via landfilling or passed on to the next value chain via recycling. Nonetheless, considering the cost implications, the practical deployment of renewable chemicals is a challenge. The considered renewable chemicals cost 1.3–8 times more than their fossil counterparts, resulting in a marginal CO2 price of 480 €/tCO2‐eq when all primary resources (energy crops, forest residues and renewable electricity) are considered, or 810 €/tCO2‐eq when the availability of arable land is restricted. In the transition to net‐zero emissions for the chemicals under study, a circular economy is important not only for reducing demand for primary resources as is typically the case but also reduces GHG abatement costs by 13%–24% through carbon capture and utilization effects.

Rooftop solar with net metering: An integrated investment appraisal

This paper develops a framework for a financial, economic, and stakeholder analysis of a residential rooftop solar net-metering program. The empirical focus of the paper is the net-metering program in Ontario, Canada, but the methodology is applicable to evaluating other public programs. The results highlight that without the Federal Government's subsidy for the initial investment cost, net-metered solar systems are not financially viable for representative households. Moreover, the stakeholder analysis reveals that for each additional net-metered system installed in Ontario, non-net-metered households experience financial losses of six times the benefits to the net-metered households. The net losses to the Federal Government of Canada and the Canadian economy are five and nine times the benefit to the net-metered households, respectively. The only stakeholder who benefits marginally is the Government of Ontario. In terms of environmental benefits, our estimate of the cost of greenhouse gas abatement by residential net-metered solar is 325 CAD per ton of CO2, which is significantly higher than the current (65 CAD in 2023) and future (170 CAD by 2030) national carbon price set by the Government of Canada.

Economic and environmental viability of biofuel production from organic wastes: A pathway towards competitive carbon neutrality

Production of renewable C1 transport biofuels (such as biomethane and biomethanol) through the integration of anaerobic digestion (AD) with carbon capture, utilization and sequestration technologies may offer a solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presented a detailed techno-economic and environmental assessment of four cases for biomethane or biomethanol production by incorporating AD, CO2 utilization via biomethanation (CU), solid digestate pyrolysis (Py) and methanol synthesis (MeOH). The results reflected the current state of technologies and potential future scenarios within a mature market. Under optimistic scenarios (scaled-up systems and reduced hydrogen price of 1 €/kg), the minimum potential GHG abatement cost for the AD-Py-CU case was −111.1 €/t CO2-eq when biomethane was sold at 1.03 €/Nm3 (a contract gas price in 2022), while the abatement cost rose to −58.2 €/t CO2-eq when H2 was purchased at 3.40 €/kg. When methanol was sold at 425 €/t (global weighted average value), the marginal abatement cost for the AD-Py-CU-MeOH (with H2 at 1.0 €/kg) case was 136.5 €/t CO2-eq, which is higher than current carbon credits at 33.5 €/t CO2. This study suggests that biomethane produced by incorporating AD, CO2 biomethanation and pyrolysis technologies may be economically and environmentally competitive over natural gas.

Comparing Life-Cycle Emissions of Biofuels for Marine Applications: Hydrothermal Liquefaction of Wet Wastes, Pyrolysis of Wood, Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis of Landfill Gas, and Solvolysis of Wood.

Recent restrictions on marine fuel sulfur content and a heightened regulatory focus on maritime decarbonization are driving the deployment of low-carbon and low-sulfur alternative fuels for maritime transport. In this study, we quantified the life-cycle greenhouse gas and sulfur oxide emissions of several novel marine biofuel candidates and benchmarked the results against the emissions reduction targets set by the International Maritime Organization. A total of 11 biofuel pathways via four conversion processes are considered, including (1) biocrudes derived from hydrothermal liquefaction of wastewater sludge and manure, (2) bio-oils from catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody biomass, (3) diesel via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis of landfill gas, and (4) lignin ethanol oil from reductive catalytic fractionation of poplar. Our analysis reveals that marine biofuels' life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions range from -60 to 56 gCO2e MJ-1, representing a 41-163% reduction compared with conventional low-sulfur fuel oil, thus demonstrating a considerable potential for decarbonizing the maritime sector. Due to the net-negative carbon emissions from their life cycles, all waste-based pathways showed over 100% greenhouse gas reduction potential with respect to low-sulfur fuel oil. However, while most biofuel feedstocks have a naturally occurring low-sulfur content, the waste feedstocks considered here have higher sulfur content, requiring hydrotreating prior to use as a marine fuel. Combining the break-even price estimates from a published techno-economic analysis, which was performed concurrently with this study, the marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost was estimated to range from -$120 to $370 tCO2e-1 across the pathways considered. Lower marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs were associated with waste-based pathways, while higher marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs were associated with the other biomass-based pathways. Except for lignin ethanol oil, all candidates show the potential to be competitive with a carbon credit of $200 tCO2e-1 in 2016 dollars, which is within the range of prices recently received in connection with California's low-carbon fuel standard.

The role of hydrogen in a net-zero emission economy under alternative policy scenarios

Low emission and green hydrogen as a carbon-free energy carrier has attracted worldwide attention in decarbonizing the energy system and meeting the Paris agreement target of limiting warming to 2 °C or below. This study investigates the contribution of different hydrogen pathways to the energy transition and sheds light on adopting different decarbonization scenarios for Quebec, Canada, while including biogenic emissions from forest-based biomass consumption. We assess various alternative policy scenarios using a TIMES model for North America (NATEM), a bottom-up techno-economic approach. This study examines the role of various hydrogen pathways in Quebec's energy transition by considering different net-zero policy scenarios and an additional set of “green” scenarios, which prohibit the use of fossil fuel-based hydrogen. The results show that varying the penetration of hydrogen provides a key trade-off between reliance on direct air capture, reliance on carbon storage, reliance on wind and solar buildout, the inter-sector allocation of residual emissions, and the overall cost of achieving emission targets. In particular, the use of hydrogen in the industrial sector, a sector known to be difficult to decarbonize, reduces industrial emissions and reliance on direct air capture (DAC). Clustering industrial plants to use captured CO2 as a feedstock for synthetic fuel production may not reduce industrial GHG emissions by 2050, but it offers the opportunity to use captured CO2 instead of sequestering it in deep saline aquifers. Even though increasing industrial green hydrogen penetration increases marginal GHG abatement costs in the green net-zero scenario by 2050, it further minimizes industrial GHG emissions and the need for DAC among all net-zero scenarios by 2050. Hydrogen plays a significant role in achieving ambitious net-zero emission target, especially where electrification is not feasible, or electricitystorage is required.

Greenhouse gas reduction through crop residue-based bioenergy: A meta-analysis of reduction efficiency and abatement costs of various products

Crop residue-based bioenergy (CRB) is a green replacement for fossil fuels and an effective way of utilizing crop residues. Understanding CRB's GHG reduction effects is critical for predicting its contributions to carbon neutrality. However, many studies have focused on single products or regional assessments, and results remain uncertain and lacking in systematic examination of the diversity in products, feedstock types and their supply. Therefore, this paper systematically investigates the GHG reduction efficiency, driving factors and abatement costs of principal CRB products using a database of 225 cases composed of 71 carbon trading projects and 154 projects analyzed in scientific publications. The results show that bio-power and/or heat (bio-P&H) is highly efficient (689 kg CO2e/t dry CR) and economical (269 $/t CO2e) in reducing GHG emissions, but liquid biofuels is not encouraged because of its inefficient performance. Plant size and feedstock collection radius significantly affected GHG reductions of bio-P&H and liquid biofuel. Recommended plant sizes and feedstock types for CRB production were identified from environmental and economic perspectives. Overall, these results clarify the patterns and driving factors of GHG reduction efficiency and abatement costs of various CRB products, providing a framework for optimizing CRB development to combat climate change.

Greenhouse gas reduction potential and cost-effectiveness of economy-wide hydrogen-natural gas blending for energy end uses

North American and European jurisdictions are considering repurposing natural gas infrastructure to deliver a lower carbon blend of natural gas and hydrogen; this paper evaluates the greenhouse gas reduction potential and cost-effectiveness of the repurposing. The analysis uses a bottom-up economy-wide energy-systems model of an emission-intensive jurisdiction, Alberta, Canada, to evaluate 576 long-term scenarios from 2026 to 2050. Many scenarios were included to give the analysis broad international applicability and differ by sector, hydrogen blending intensity, carbon policy, and hydrogen infrastructure development. Twelve hydrogen production technologies are compared in a long-term greenhouse gas and cost analysis, including advanced technologies. Autothermal reforming with carbon capture provides both lower-carbon and lower-cost hydrogen compared to most other technologies in most futures, even with high fugitive natural gas production emissions. Using hydrogen-natural gas blends for end-use energy applications eliminates 1–2% of economy-wide GHG emissions and marginal GHG abatement costs become negative at carbon prices over $300/tonne. The findings are useful for stakeholders expanding the international low-carbon hydrogen economy and governments engaged in formulating decarbonization policies and are considering hydrogen as an option.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Water and Fossil-Fuel Consumptions for Polyethylene Furanoate and Its Coproducts from Wheat Straw

Polyethylene furanoate (PEF) is a bioplastic that can potentially replace its fossil-fuel counterpart, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A life-cycle GHG, water, and fossil-fuel consumption analysis is conducted for a potential bioplastic alternative for a fossil-based PET resin, or PEF on a kg-resin basis. PEF is assumed to be produced from a lignocellulosic feedstock (i.e., wheat straw) via furanics conversion reactions through three different pathways. The system boundary includes cradle-to-gate processes including feedstock farming, pretreatment, hydrolysis, conversion into furanics, recovery, polymerization into PEF, and on-site combined heat and power (CHP) generation. While electricity export from the CHP plant is assumed to displace the U. S. grid electricity, other coproducts of PEF are assumed to distribute the emissions and energy burdens on a mass basis. The results showed that all three PEF routes achieved significant GHG reduction relative to its fossil-based counterpart (i.e., PET): 134, 139, and 163% reduction for routes 1, 2, and 3, respectively. While fossil-fuel consumptions for all three pathways were also significantly reduced (i.e., 79, 57, and 53% reduction for routes 1, 2, and 3), water consumptions for routes 1 and 2 were increased by 168 and 79%, respectively, while route 3 only achieved reduction (by 77%) relative to fossil-PET. Different sensitivity analyses were conducted, and the results showed that coproduct allocation methods and wheat straw management assumption were the most important. A preliminary analysis on the farmland area and cost required to reduce unit mass of GHGs using PEF to replace PET is also conducted, showing a promising result for both metrics: (i) 3 metric tons of GHGs reduced/ha for all three PEF pathways and (ii) affordable cost of GHG abatement for routes 1 and 2, while route 3 even generated profits.

Farm-Level Effects of Emissions Tax and Adjustable Drainage on Peatlands

Drained agricultural peatlands emit significantly higher amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per hectare than mineral soils. GHG abatement costs for representative cereals (CF) and dairy (DF) farms in southwestern Finland were estimated by integrating an emission-based tax together with an option to invest in a subsidized adjustable drainage system on peat soils in a farm-level dynamic optimization model. With an average 10% share of peat soils from overall farm area, emissions tax rates over 15 (CF) and 19 (DF) €/tCO2e triggered adjustable drainage investments with a significant reduction in GHG emissions per ha, when assuming no crop-yield effect from the adjustable drainage. Abatement costs for emissions tax rates €12–50/tCO2e/ha were €16–44/tCO2e (CF) and €26–51/tCO2e (DF) for whole farm-soil emissions, depending on the share of peatlands on the farm, on the yield effects of adjustable drainage, and on crop prices. High emissions tax rates imply higher abatement costs since farms have a limited capability to adjust their production and land use. Thus, emissions reductions from peatlands can be achieved at reasonable costs when investing in adjustable drainage on peatlands. The income losses due to emissions tax, however, are high, but they can be compensated for farmers by lumpsum payments independent of their production decisions. Since existing agricultural policies such as the EU CAP system may have limited effectiveness on GHG emissions, the emissions tax and adjustable drainage on peatlands could promote GHG abatement significantly on farms and areas with abundant peatlands.

Utilization of forestry waste materials in British Columbia: Options and strategies

The Canadian province of British Columbia has large forestry resources and therefore provides an informative example of the potential role of bioenergy in mitigating GHG emissions. Even in biomass-rich British Columbia, forestry resources are only sufficient to meet part of the energy demand. This paper compares different energy conversion routes for forestry waste materials: via hydrothermal liquefaction, thermochemical methanol and bioethanol, renewable natural gas, cogeneration of heat and power, heat-only boilers, and power-only generation. The GHG savings, health impacts, minimum selling prices, and GHG abatement costs for each option are estimated by combining life cycle assessment with a discounted cash flow model. The input-based functional unit of 1 oven-dry tonne biomass provides a better basis for comparing possible uses of finite biomass supply than the commonly-used output-based functional unit of 1 GJ bioenergy. Heat-only boiler for district heating gives the highest GHG reduction of 960 kgCO2-eq per oven-dry tonne feedstock, while power-only generation delivers minimal GHG benefit in British Columbia. Heat-only boiler and cogeneration offer the lowest GHG abatement costs (<$-20/tCO2-eq), due to lower costs and higher energy conversion efficiencies, and are already economically viable, but will not use all the available resources because health impacts generated by biomass combustion limit their deployment, despite life cycle health benefits for avoiding hazardous emissions from slash burning of forestry waste materials. Refined biofuel options are much less cost-effective (>$50/tCO2-eq); further technology improvement and policy support are needed to offset the cost disadvantage.

An integrated assessment framework for the decarbonization of the electricity generation sector

The generation of electricity can have major environmental impacts not only in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also in terms of water use. There has been limited integrated assessment of the environmental footprints of deep decarbonization of electricity generation. This research develops an integrated approach to evaluate the GHG emission mitigation, water footprints, and marginal abatement costs of electricity generation decarbonization pathways. The decarbonization of Canada’s electricity sector was used as a case study. A Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model of the electricity generation sector was developed to determine future regional electricity generation technology mixes. A Water Evaluation and Planning model was also developed for the sector considering 530 power plants, 156 electricity generation water demand sites, and 74 major rivers. The energy and water-use models were integrated, and two scenarios were evaluated for a planning horizon of 2019–2050 using this integrated framework. The first scenario was based on current policy trajectories and the second was developed with a deep electricity decarbonization target of 100%. In the current policy scenario, water consumption and GHG emissions increased 22% and decreased 49%, respectively, by 2050 from 2019. The fully decarbonized scenario resulted in water consumption savings and negative marginal GHG abatement costs. The results quantify the co-benefits of decarbonizing electricity systems and show that transitioning toward renewables can reduce GHG emissions, water consumption, and system costs. These results may be important for policy development at the regional and national levels as well as internationally for jurisdictions looking to transition to carbon-free electricity.

Novel integrated agricultural land management approach provides sustainable biomass feedstocks for bioplastics and supports the UK’s ‘net-zero’ target

We investigate the potential in producing biodegradable bio-plastics to support the emergent ‘net-zero’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets in the UK. A ‘cradle to grave’ life cycle assessment was developed to evaluate GHG mitigation potentials of bio-based polybutylene succinate plastics produced from wheat straw-only (single feedstock) or wheat straw plus Miscanthus (mixed feedstocks) agricultural supply systems. For scenarios using mixed feedstocks, significant carbon mitigation potentials were identified at catchment and national levels (emission reduction of 30 kg CO2eq kg−1 plastic compared to petroleum-based alternatives), making the system studied a significant net carbon sink at marginal GHG abatement costs of £0.5–14.9 t−1 CO2eq. We show that an effective ‘net-zero’ transition of the UK’s agricultural sector needs spatially explicit, diversified and integrated cropping strategies. Such integration of perennial bio-materials into food production systems can unlock cost-effective terrestrial carbon sequestration. Research & Development and scale-up will lower costs helping deliver a sustainable bioeconomy and transition to ‘net-zero’.

Assessment of renewable energy transition pathways for a fossil fuel-dependent electricity-producing jurisdiction

This research assesses the transition of a fossil fuel-based electricity production jurisdiction to a renewable-based electricity jurisdiction through an extensive scenario analysis. This fills a knowledge gap where a wide-range of fossil-to-renewable electricity generation pathways is compared within a single analysis framework. To conduct this study, a novel data-intensive electricity system model was developed with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system and applied to evaluate alternative electricity generation mix scenarios to the year 2050. A case study for Alberta, a fossil fuels-based province in Canada, was conducted. A total of 382 scenarios were analyzed considering different renewable pathways and varying key uncertain future conditions. The greenhouse gas emission abatement and marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of each scenario were evaluated and compared. Several renewable-based scenarios resulted in significant greenhouse gas abatement at lower costs than the fossil-fuel based business-as-usual scenario. The maximum greenhouse gas abatement possible at a net cost reduction compared to the business-as-usual scenario was found through a specific combination of wind, hydro, and solar power which resulted in over a 90% reduction from 2005 emission levels at −$1.8/t of carbon dioxide equivalent abated. The results of this study provide policy insight for jurisdictions transitioning away from fossil fuel-based electricity to renewables.

De-risking Renewable Energy Investments in Developing Countries: A Multilateral Guarantee Mechanism

Summary Mitigation of global warming requires substantial investment in electricity generation from renewable sources. A large share of new generation capacity is required in regions with adverse financing conditions. We propose a global guarantee mechanism to reduce risk premia of renewable energy investments by means of risk pooling and increased market efficiency. Policymakers could establish this mechanism by scaling up existing international risk guarantee initiatives. We estimate the net present value of overall savings at US$2018 1.5 trillion globally for investments by 2030, with the largest relative savings (between 20.5% and 22%) in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb. The savings from such a mechanism outweigh its estimated average yearly operating cost. By lowering the cost of decarbonization in high-risk countries, the proposed mechanism offers policymakers a tool to make current global mitigation pledges more achievable and enables the global community to pursue more ambitious climate action.

Mitigating Curtailment and Carbon Emissions through Load Migration between Data Centers

Summary As the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) grows in the electric grid, so does the risk of curtailment. While energy storage and hydrogen production have been proposed as solutions to the curtailment problem, they often pose technological and economic challenges. Here, we analyze the potential of data center load migration for mitigating curtailment and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using historical hourly electricity generation, curtailment, and typical data center server utilization data, we simulate the effect of migrating data center workloads from the fossil-fuel-heavy PJM to the renewable-heavy CAISO. The results show that load migration within the existing data center capacity during the curtailment hours in CAISO has the potential to reduce 113–239 KtCO2e per year of GHG emissions and absorb up to 62% of the total curtailment with negative abatement costs in 2019. Our study demonstrates the overlooked role that data centers can play for VRE integration and GHG emissions mitigation.

Comparative economic and life cycle assessment of solar-based hydrogen production for oil and gas industries

Hydrogen is used in the petroleum industry to upgrade crude oil in refineries or as a chemical agent to produce ammonia, methanol and other products. It is mainly supplied by conventional production methods based on fossil fuels. Solar-based hydrogen production is a potentially advantageous option to the problems of climate change and depletion of conventional fuel supplies. Four hydrogen production pathways including steam methane reforming, coal gasification, photovoltaic and solar thermal electrolysis are considered in this study. This paper investigates solar hydrogen potential in terms of cost and emissions as a replacement for conventional methods to provide the hydrogen required in oil and gas industries. GHG abatement costs are evaluated to compare the proposed methods with a reference method. As steam methane reforming is the most common method used in the petroleum industry, it is considered as the reference method in this study. Our results show that the GHG abatement costs are $0.786/kg CO2 and $1.37/kg CO2 for PV and solar thermal electrolysis, respectively. An uncertainty analysis is also conducted to assess the effects of variations of different parameters on the results.

Greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and associated costs of integrating renewable and low carbon energy technologies into the Canadian oil sands

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the greenhouse gas reduction potential and associated costs of integrating renewable energy technologies into Canada’s oil sands . There is very limited analysis in the literature focused on the integration of renewable technology options in oil sands processes. This research addresses the gap by developing a novel framework that applies market penetration and bottom-up energy modeling techniques. A total of 27 long-term scenarios across oil sands extraction, upgrading, and electricity generation were investigated. The results show that up to 84 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions abatement (2.3% of oil sands GHG emissions) at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of $1.3/tCO2e is available under a $30/tonne carbon incentive. Scenarios with no carbon incentive resulted in 69 million tonnes less greenhouse gas emissions abatement and a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost increase of $36/tCO2e. Nuclear-based scenarios mitigated the largest amount of greenhouse gases and had the lowest marginal abatement costs. Geothermal energy, bioenergy, and hydropower were cost effective in certain scenarios but had limited greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. Wind and solar technologies failed to displace existing processes in the scenarios considered. The results from this study may be of value to government policy makers and industry representatives aiming to reduce greenhouse gases.

Health co-benefits of achieving sustainable net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in California

The achievement of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2100 is required to limit global temperature rise below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Earlier accomplishments of net-zero GHG emissions in developed regions support this global target. Here, we develop a road map for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions sustainably in 2050 by using detailed modelling of energy system transformation, cross-sectoral connectivity and technology penetration, as well as quantify the associated health co-benefits from reduced co-emitted air pollutants. We find that approximately 14,000 premature deaths can be avoided in California in 2050 and that these health co-benefits are disproportionately higher in disadvantaged communities (that is, 35% of avoided deaths will come from 25% of the state’s population). The annualized monetary benefits (US$215 billion) exceed the GHG abatement cost (US$106 billion) by US$109 billion. This road map requires the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration technology to offset some GHG emissions. However, this technology comes at a price as it would emit a considerable amount of air pollutants and reduce health co-benefits by US$4 billion. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that ambitious GHG reduction efforts can provide substantial health co-benefits, especially for residents of disadvantaged communities. Transforming the energy system to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2100 is vital to fight climate change. This target can be achieved in California, USA, by 2050—alongside air quality benefits especially in disadvantaged communities—by using bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration.

Small-Scale Modelling of Individual Greenhouse Gas Abatement Measures in Industry

The dynamic bottom-up modelling of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures in industry makes it possible to derive consistent transformation paths on the basis of heterogeneous, process-specific developments. The main focus is on the development of a transparent methodology for small-scale modelling and combination of individual GHG abatement measures. In this way, interactions between GHG abatement measures are taken into account when deriving industrial transformation paths. The presented three-part methodological approach comprises the preparation (1) and implementation (2) of GHG abatement measures as well as the resulting effects on the output parameters (3) in a technology mix module. In order to consider interactions in the measures implementation, year-specific overall measure matrices are created and prioritised based on the GHG abatement costs. Finally, the three-part methodology is tested in a consistent technology mix scenario. The results show that the methodology enables integrated industrial technology mix scenarios with a high level of climate ambition based on a plausible development of energy consumption and emissions. Compared to the reference scenario, the process-and energy-related emissions decrease by 90 million tCO2 (77% of the 1990 level in 2050). The developed methodology and the related technology mix scenario within the framework of the bottom-up industry model SmInd can support strategic decision-making in politics and an efficient transition to a greenhouse gas neutral industry.

Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potentials and Economics of Selected Biochemicals in Germany

In this paper, biochemicals with the potential to substitute fossil reference chemicals in Germany were identified using technological readiness and substitution potential criteria. Their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were quantified by using life cycle assessments (LCA) and their economic viabilities were determined by comparing their minimum selling prices with fossil references’ market prices. A bottom up mathematical optimization model, BioENergy OPTimization (BENOPT) was used to investigate the GHG abatement potential and the corresponding abatement costs for the biochemicals up to 2050. BENOPT determines the optimal biomass allocation pathways based on maximizing GHG abatement under resource, capacity, and demand constraints. The identified biochemicals were bioethylene, succinic acid, polylactic acid (PLA), and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Results show that only succinic acid is economically competitive. Bioethylene which is the least performing in terms of economics breaks even at a carbon price of 420 euros per ton carbon dioxide equivalent (€/tCO2eq). With full tax waivers, a carbon price of 134 €/tCO2eq is necessary. This would result in positive margins for PHA and PLA of 12% and 16%, respectively. From the available agricultural land, modeling results show high sensitivity to assumptions of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in biochemicals and integrated biochemicals production. GHG abatement for scenarios where these assumptions were disregarded and where they were collectively taken into account increased by 370% resulting in a 75% reduction in the corresponding GHG abatement costs.