Greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and associated costs of integrating renewable and low carbon energy technologies into the Canadian oil sands

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to evaluate the greenhouse gas reduction potential and associated costs of integrating renewable energy technologies into Canada’s oil sands . There is very limited analysis in the literature focused on the integration of renewable technology options in oil sands processes. This research addresses the gap by developing a novel framework that applies market penetration and bottom-up energy modeling techniques. A total of 27 long-term scenarios across oil sands extraction, upgrading, and electricity generation were investigated. The results show that up to 84 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions abatement (2.3% of oil sands GHG emissions) at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of $1.3/tCO2e is available under a $30/tonne carbon incentive. Scenarios with no carbon incentive resulted in 69 million tonnes less greenhouse gas emissions abatement and a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost increase of $36/tCO2e. Nuclear-based scenarios mitigated the largest amount of greenhouse gases and had the lowest marginal abatement costs. Geothermal energy, bioenergy, and hydropower were cost effective in certain scenarios but had limited greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. Wind and solar technologies failed to displace existing processes in the scenarios considered. The results from this study may be of value to government policy makers and industry representatives aiming to reduce greenhouse gases.