Abstract
The dynamic bottom-up modelling of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement measures in industry makes it possible to derive consistent transformation paths on the basis of heterogeneous, process-specific developments. The main focus is on the development of a transparent methodology for small-scale modelling and combination of individual GHG abatement measures. In this way, interactions between GHG abatement measures are taken into account when deriving industrial transformation paths. The presented three-part methodological approach comprises the preparation (1) and implementation (2) of GHG abatement measures as well as the resulting effects on the output parameters (3) in a technology mix module. In order to consider interactions in the measures implementation, year-specific overall measure matrices are created and prioritised based on the GHG abatement costs. Finally, the three-part methodology is tested in a consistent technology mix scenario. The results show that the methodology enables integrated industrial technology mix scenarios with a high level of climate ambition based on a plausible development of energy consumption and emissions. Compared to the reference scenario, the process-and energy-related emissions decrease by 90 million tCO2 (77% of the 1990 level in 2050). The developed methodology and the related technology mix scenario within the framework of the bottom-up industry model SmInd can support strategic decision-making in politics and an efficient transition to a greenhouse gas neutral industry.
Highlights
While considerable attention is paid to defossilising the supply, transport and household sectors, knowledge of how greenhouse gases can be abated in industry sector is lagging behind [1,2,3]
The results show that the methodology enables integrated industrial technology mix scenarios with a high level of climate ambition based on a plausible development of energy consumption and emissions
The developed methodology and the related technology mix scenario within the framework of the bottom-up industry model sector model industry (SmInd) can support strategic decision-making in politics and an efficient transition to a greenhouse gas neutral industry
Summary
While considerable attention is paid to defossilising the supply, transport and household sectors, knowledge of how greenhouse gases can be abated in industry sector is lagging behind [1,2,3]. Industrial heterogeneity leads to a wide range of GHG abatement technologies [9,10,11,12], some of which often show interdependencies [1]. The combination of GHG abatement measures by modelling a consistent industrial technology mix scenario often leads to difficulties. The order of GHG abatement measures in the implementation process is crucial for the development of efficient transformation paths. A few industrial models make it possible to compute technology-independent, consistent transformation paths that take interdependencies between individual small-scale GHG abatement measures into account [14]. With the many and complex ways in which GHG abatement measures affect industrial production volumes, energy
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