The role of hydrogen in a net-zero emission economy under alternative policy scenarios

Abstract

Low emission and green hydrogen as a carbon-free energy carrier has attracted worldwide attention in decarbonizing the energy system and meeting the Paris agreement target of limiting warming to 2 °C or below. This study investigates the contribution of different hydrogen pathways to the energy transition and sheds light on adopting different decarbonization scenarios for Quebec, Canada, while including biogenic emissions from forest-based biomass consumption. We assess various alternative policy scenarios using a TIMES model for North America (NATEM), a bottom-up techno-economic approach. This study examines the role of various hydrogen pathways in Quebec's energy transition by considering different net-zero policy scenarios and an additional set of “green” scenarios, which prohibit the use of fossil fuel-based hydrogen. The results show that varying the penetration of hydrogen provides a key trade-off between reliance on direct air capture, reliance on carbon storage, reliance on wind and solar buildout, the inter-sector allocation of residual emissions, and the overall cost of achieving emission targets. In particular, the use of hydrogen in the industrial sector, a sector known to be difficult to decarbonize, reduces industrial emissions and reliance on direct air capture (DAC). Clustering industrial plants to use captured CO2 as a feedstock for synthetic fuel production may not reduce industrial GHG emissions by 2050, but it offers the opportunity to use captured CO2 instead of sequestering it in deep saline aquifers. Even though increasing industrial green hydrogen penetration increases marginal GHG abatement costs in the green net-zero scenario by 2050, it further minimizes industrial GHG emissions and the need for DAC among all net-zero scenarios by 2050. Hydrogen plays a significant role in achieving ambitious net-zero emission target, especially where electrification is not feasible, or electricitystorage is required.