Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Research Articles

Popular culture and Nile hydropolitics: Amharic songs about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Water conflicts and negotiations between riparian states in the Nile Basin have mostly focused on legal, political, technical, and hydrological aspects of the river and dam construction. The contemporary cultural, emotional, and symbolic dimensions of the river and its dams have been largely overlooked. Therefore, this article explores how the Nile is portrayed, embedded, and perceived in Ethiopian popular culture, particularly popular songs. The Abbay, as the Nile is called in Ethiopia, is an integral part of the country’s identity, culture, history and politics. The river is at the heart of Ethiopian public space and popular songs, which both influence and are shaped by public opinion and official government discourses. The narratives communi- cated through these popular songs dramatically changed after construction began for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in 2011. While most songs had previously lamented and cursed the river’s indifference to Ethiopians’ strife, newer narratives glorify and celebrate the river and the GERD. This study used discourse analysis to illustrate how popular songs shape public opinion about Abbay and mobilize popular support for the construction of the GERD. The article concludes with broader implications for water diplomacy and ongoing GERD negotiations.

Hazards of sea level rise and dams built on the River Nile on water budget and salinity of the Nile Delta aquifer

Study regionThe Nile Delta region consists of flat, low-lying areas, where most areas are used for agriculture. It covers an area of 22,000 km2, which is 2.20% of the total area of Egypt. Study focusThis study evaluates the water budget and the salinity due to the Sea Level Rise (SLR) and the reduction in the river water flow caused by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) using the numerical code SEAWAT. Three filling scenarios were considered for the GERD reservoir at elevations 600 m, 621 m, and 645 m above mean sea level (AMSL) for the storage volumes of 17 billion cubic meters (BCM) (scenarios #1), 37.30 BCM (scenarios #2), and 74 BCM (scenarios #3). The impact of these fillings scenarios was combined with SLR of 25 cm, and increasing the abstraction rates from the Nile Delta aquifer by 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. New hydrological insights for the regionThe study findings indicated that the SLR and the GERD reservoir filling with increasing pumping rates, especially during the filling periods, would influence the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta. The GERD reservoir filling could alter the freshwater, in which the aquifer salinity increased by 4.47%, 11.48%, and 29.99% for the three scenarios, respectively. The methodology and findings presented in this study might be useful for investing and comparing the impact of SLR and upstream dam projects on the downstream water budget and salinity at other coastal regions.

Dam operation using satellite data and hydrological models: the case of Roseires dam and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile River

ABSTRACT The unexpected drop of the Blue Nile water in July 2020, attributed to the sudden closure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during the first filling in 2020, significantly interrupted the water supply for Khartoum, Sudan. This incident pursued using satellites and hydrological models to estimate inflows into Roseires dam. A hydrological model was developed to predict GERD inflows, while reservoir levels were extracted from Sentinel-1, -2 and Jason-3. A water balance model was developed to predict GERD releases and the dates of overtopping during subsequent fillings events. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of satellite data and models for transboundary reservoir management.

Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Abstract. The filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) started in 2020, posing additional challenges for downstream water management in the Blue Nile River in the Republic of the Sudan, which is already struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. This is also the case for many transboundary rivers that are affected by a lack of cooperation and transparency during the filling and operation of new dams. Without information about water supply from neighboring countries, it is risky to manage downstream dams as usual, but operational information is needed to apply modifications. This study aims to develop a novel approach/framework that utilizes hydrological modeling in conjunction with remote-sensing data to retrieve reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions. Firstly, five rainfall products (i.e., ARC2, CHIRPS, ERA5, GPCC, and PERSIANN-CDR; see Sect. 2.3 for more information) were evaluated against historical measured rainfall at 10 stations. Secondly, to account for input uncertainty, the three best-performing rainfall products were forced in the conceptual hydrological model HBV-light with potential evapotranspiration and temperature data from ERA5. The model was calibrated during the period from 2006 to 2019 and validated during the period from 1991 to 1996. Thirdly, the parameter sets that obtained very good performance (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, greater than 0.75) were utilized to predict the inflow of GERD during the operation period (2020–2022). Then, from the water balance of GERD, the daily storage was estimated and compared with the storage derived from Landsat and Sentinel imageries to evaluate the performance of the selected rainfall products and the reliability of the framework. Finally, 3 years of GERD filling strategies was retrieved using the best-performing simulation of CHIRPS with an RMSE of 1.7 ×109 and 1.52 ×109m3 and an NSE of 0.77 and 0.86 when compared with Landsat- and Sentinel-derived reservoir storage, respectively. It was found that GERD stored 14 % of the monthly inflow of July 2020; 41 % of July 2021; and 37 % and 32 % of July and August 2022, respectively. Annually, GERD retained 5.2 % and 7.4 % of the annual inflow in the first two filling phases and between 12.9 % and 13.7 % in the third phase. The results also revealed that the retrieval of filling strategies is more influenced by input uncertainty than parameter uncertainty. The retrieved daily change in GERD storage with the measured outflow to the Republic of the Sudan allowed further interpretation of the downstream impacts of GERD. The findings of this study provide systematic steps to retrieve filling strategies, which can serve as a base for future development in the field, especially for data-scarce regions. Locally, the analysis contributes significantly to the future water management of the Roseires and Sennar dams in the Republic of the Sudan.

High-modernist intervention and the prolonged frontier conflict in Metekel, North-West Ethiopia: the case of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

ABSTRACTThis study explores the interface of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a high-modernist hydraulic scheme, with the protracted frontier conflict in Metekel Zone of Benishangul Gumuz Regional State. Without downplaying the national technocratic ambitions that it invokes, based on fieldwork conducted in 2022, the study witnessed as the dam’s presence in Metekel has escalated the perennial state-local skirmishes, rekindled inter-group hostilities, and ultimately trans-nationalized the frontier mayhem in the area. Such impacts of the dam were rooted in the state’s long-held frontier imagination and coercive relocation program through which hegemonic high-modernist narratives contested locals’ lived experiences. Differential local impacts of the dam, its role in mounting competing territorialities, and the concomitance of the trans-national feud with local discords were also equally influencing. However, the interface between the GERD and frontier struggles in Metekel was broadly shaped by the frontier’s history and national governance policies. In revealing so, the study provides insights that complement debates about frontier dynamics and struggles in Ethiopia and Africa, which tend to concentrate on tensions related to land transfer for private investors. Indeed, frontier struggles seem too complex: one must interrogate multiple actors, the complex history, and a broader range of issues with local, national, and regional dimensions.

Examining the Accuracy of Using a Single Short-Term Historical Flow Period to Assess the Nile’s Downstream Water Deficit from GERD Filling: A Technical Note

Increasing water and energy demands, hydroclimatic fluctuations, damming, and usage rights disputes present major challenges in managing transboundary rivers worldwide. Of particular interest is the Eastern Nile River Basin (ENRB), which is subject to broad debate over which modeling approach should be applied to resolve the disparities in transboundary water management among the river’s riparian nations, under increased upstream damming. Several studies have simulated the downstream High Aswan Dam (HAD) storage change during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling under different hydrological conditions. However, their findings diverge regarding the impacts of GERD filling on HAD storage, especially when considering a specific, naturalized, historical 10-year period to represent the average flow condition used, as a benchmark for assessing potential downstream impacts. Our extended analysis of the Nile flow historical records demonstrates that considering a single historical 10-year period to simulate the downstream water budget, as performed in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x), widely communicated to policymakers as a robust proof that GERD filling will not generate a deficit at HAD under average flow conditions, is inconclusive as it strongly depend on the selection of the historical inflow period, due to the river high interannual flow variability. Our simulation results of 20 average/near average historical flow periods in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)’s datasheet indicates that 60% of them generates a downstream water deficit ranging from 0.5 to 14.5 BCM under the same modeling conditions and filling policy. Therefore, considering the simulation results of multiple flow sequences is crucial for accurately reflecting the impact of the Nile’s high interannual flow variability on downstream water deficit assessments, thereby settling the disparities in transboundary water management forecasts for the impacts of GERD filling and operation.

Will the Nile River Turn into a Lake? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam Case-Study

Abstract Today, many scholars agree that changes in water availability triggered by population growth, economic development and climate change impact will increase competition between water users, making conflict more likely, especially in those countries that lack the financial, technical and governance capacities to address water-related challenge and/or in river basin riparian states that share common water resources. As early as 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysing the water issue at a regional and global level, concluded that, while water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely to occur during the next ten years, the problem is projected to get worse in the near future. Starting from the historical reconstruction and the geopolitical repercussions of the water dispute in the Nile River Basin and focusing on the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), this article aims to analyse the political, socio-economic and environmental changes that are affecting upstream countries and to detect how these new dynamics are challenging both the balance of power and the ongoing cooperation process in the region.

Aquaculture in Hydropower Reservoirs

There is an undoubtedly existing relationship between water, energy, and food and their interaction with the natural environment and mankind. Climate change is the talk of the day in global development discussions as it intensifies water shortages, energy, poverty, food shortages, and environmental degradation. Currently, most of the hydropower dams constructed in Africa are majorly built to store water for agricultural purposes, control flooding, and generate electricity. Notable projects include the seven forks hydropower stations located on the Tana River in Kenya; Aswan high dam in Egypt; Grand Renaissance dam in Ethiopia; Kariba dam in Zimbabwe and Akosombo in Ghana. Since agriculture is the major source of livelihood in Africa, the construction of dams is key for socio-economic development. Many countries in Africa have adopted crop farming and livestock farming but have neglected fish farming. Fish farming is mainly carried out in the natural water resources which highly makes it to be at risk within a climate change ecosystem. Climate change has led to the high and low fluctuation of water levels in the natural water bodies. This highly affects fish farming negatively and has led to the extinction of some fish species. To curb the problems faced by fish farming arising from climate change there is a need to create mitigation measures to ensure an adequate supply of fish in Africa. One of the mitigation measures is incorporating caged aquaculture in hydropower dams. Having caged fish farming will not only increase the fish supply but also increase income generation and food security across Africa. The paper followed a desktop research approach and provide detailed analysis of the relations between the availability of water, energy, and food in regard to fish production. A proposed conceptual framework for caged aquaculture systems was presented in this study as a means of promoting sustainability in food and agricultural production. The study further provided feasible climate-friendly food systems and blue justice approaches that can be adopted by the key stakeholders.

Policy conflict around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

AbstractThe Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the largest hydroelectric power project in Africa in terms of installed capacity. With global attention focused on the impact of this megadam, questions about how GERD‐related conflict developed are coming to the fore. This discussion paper describes policy conflict around this new hydroelectric dam over the past decade among three nations in the Nile River basin—Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Relying on the insights from the Policy Conflict Framework (a policy process theory that clarifies policy conflict characteristics and episodes) and the method of document analysis, this paper reviews the policy setting around the GERD conflict at the macro level. The paper concludes by proposing three recommendations to mitigate policy conflict: (1) address hydrologic information loopholes, (2) leverage a new mediator, and (3) recognize the multifaceted nature of policy conflict.

Hydro-Hegemony, Counter-Hegemony and Neoclassical Realism on the Nile Basin: An Analysis of Egypt’s Response to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

The Framework of Hydro-Hegemony (FHH) has been applied several times to transboundary water disputes. Since it defines Egypt as a hegemon and Ethiopia as a counter-hegemon, many studies have focused on the hegemonic and counter-hegemonic activities in the Nile Basin. However, this article argues that Egypt has also deployed counter-hegemonic tactics to deal with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) from Neoclassical Realist perspective. In this context, it questions why and how Egypt has deployed hegemonic and counter-hegemonic tactics to respond to the GERD through process-tracing and utilising primary and secondary sources such as official statements, books, articles and journals.

A Review: Keystone Environmental Problems are the Labyrinth Root causes that Resonate together with Socioeconomic Factors on Igniting Global Conflicts and Warfare


 When mitigating a man-made environmental problem, if it results in the permanent disappearance of one or more other environmental problems, then that mitigated problem can be considered a keystone environmental problem. Based on the aforesaid definition, eight environmental problems have been identified, such as population explosion, air pollution, deforestation, water pollution, scarcity and salination, overexploitation of natural resources, urbanisation (including industrialization, urban sprawl and settlements), intensive farming, and the global energy crisis. It has also been found that there is a significant relationship between these keystone environmental problems and global conflicts. For instance, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), over the last six decades, globally, more than 40% of the internal conflicts have been caused by overexploitation of natural resources, which is a known keystone environmental issue. Thus, the importance of identifying the role of keystone environmental problems in igniting global environmental conflicts and warfare has been widely realised. This study was conducted using qualitative content analysis methodology reveals that labyrinth established by root keystone environmental problems resonates together with socio-economic factors conflagrate global environmental conflicts and warfare, such as Cauvery River conflict between Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in South India, conflict from trespassing fishermen poaching in waters of neighbouring country from both India and Sri Lanka, Environmental Conflict in Northeast India and Bangladesh due to flooding (natural disaster) caused by climate change led to migration, West bank water crisis between Israel and Palestine, Russia’s invasion into Ukraine in 2022, Alto Cenepa war, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis between Ethiopia and Egypt, environmental conflicts in Philippines, conflict for land resources in Ethiopia, environmental conflict in Mexico, environmental conflict in Peru, Northeast India, Pakistan, Israel (Gaza), conflict of Mauritania and Senegal, Israel-Palestine (West bank), Somalia- Ethiopia, El Salvador-Honduras, Conflict between Kenyan tribes, dispute between North and South Sudan, and transboundary air pollution (causing acid rain) issue between the USA and Canada.
 Keywords: environment, environmental problems, environmental conflicts, keystone environmental problems, primary environmental problems, wars

Assessing the potential and challenges for trilateral trade integration among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia possess diverse natural resources and a substantial labor force that permit forming a successful trade integration. However, the recent dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project between Ethiopia and downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, has weakened the bilateral relations and disrupted trade flows among the three countries. This paper investigates the pattern of trilateral trade between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia during the period between 1995 and 2018. The study also examines the prospects and challenges for establishing a trilateral trade integration between the three countries. The study adopted the gravity model approach, along with the export diversification and trade complementarity indices, in order to scrutinize the pattern and structure of trade between the countries under study. The analysis indicated that Egypt is the most diversified economy with many crucial comparative advantages, which may grant it a leader position in the integration. Moreover, the paper revealed many challenges that may hinder the implementation of trilateral trade integration including, export concentration, poor infrastructure and disputes over water resources. Finally, the paper recommends that facilitating bilateral trade among the riparian countries of Eastern Nile Basin would mitigate the complex clashes over water rights.

The Global Perspective of the Dilemma of Cooperation and Complex Relationships between the Upper and Lower Nile Riparian States after 2011

There is a perceived global deficit of fresh water due to rapid population growth and increasing widespread poverty. This will inevitably lead to more complicated cooperation dilemmas between downstream and upstream Nile Basin states. Egypt and Sudan have been pushing for the Nile's water to be globally controlled by the UN Security Council from 2020–2021, after fruitless discussions; so the conflict in the Nile Basin may have far-reaching global implications and seems elusive. Due to suspicion and mistrust among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, the states are unable to prioritize mutual cooperation efforts. Third-country intervention has worsened the ongoing great divide over the GERD. Thus, the main purpose of the present article is to assess, from a global perspective, how upstream and downstream Nile Basin states, in particular Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, cross the threshold of cooperation dilemma and concern and how excessive third-party intervention exacerbates the complex relations between these states. The study conducted an in-depth documentary analysis of secondary sources by using a qualitative research method and examining various documentary sources.

Heterogeneity of Water Justice and the Question of Nile Solidarity

This article analyses the recent contestation over the Nile River due to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its implications for the agrarian question and water justice. The article focuses on the commodification of the Nile by national governments, whereby technology, rationality, and regulations have become the driving force of the river’s development. The engagement of civil society actors in the GERD dispute reveals several perceptions of “riverhood” of the Nile. As a result, water justice is heterogeneous and challenges building a wide-basin movement.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its impact on Egypt and Sudan

The study aims to identify the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its impact on Egypt and Sudan. This study is based on the qualitative method, and reached results the most important were that the Egyptians feel that they are being targeted in their national security, and that the intervention of regional and international countries to help Ethiopia build the dam is an attack on the Egyptian national security. The dam is considered a threat to Egypt and its water security and threatens the most important source on which its financial security depends. Sudan's attitudes have varied since the beginning of construction work on the dam in 2011, from initially refusing to accepting after realizing that its construction would not harm its interests. The study recommends the need to resort to arbitration through a neutral third party or the competent international court and to accept and implement its decisions. The study also indicates that it is possible to reach an agreement regarding the specifications and operation of the Renaissance Dam through direct negotiation.

Assessment of Dams’ Failure and Flood Wave Hazards on the Downstream Countries: A Case Study of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Dams are built for different purposes, but failure of a dam could result in extreme disasters such as floods. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was mainly built for power generation, but concerns about its safety, location and site conditions have led the downstream countries to investigate the GERD’s stability. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the failure of the dam on the downstream countries using the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps were provided through a hypothetical dam break scenario. An unsteady flow hydrodynamic routing with a 2D model was used to simulate the failure of the dam. A sensitivity analysis study of the output’s findings against breach parameters was also performed. The breach outflow discharge increases as the breach dimension increases. However, the peak discharge decreases with increasing breach formation time. Moreover, to prepare emergency action plans, it is important to predict the inundation depth, levels, arrival of flood waves, flood coverage area and water velocity. Furthermore, the results showed that Khartoum would turn into lakes within about 10 days and flood water depth would exceed 11 m at some locations in residential areas. Moreover, the flood waves overtopped the Roseires, Sennar and Merowe dams by 11, 7 and 20 m, respectively. In addition, the level of Lake Nasser would reach 188 m above sea level and the Aswan High Dam might be in great danger.

Securitisation of Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Dialectical Positions between Upstream and Downstream Riparian Countries

Securitisation of Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Dialectical Positions between Upstream and Downstream Riparian Countries

Flood propagation modeling: Case study the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam failure

Despite significant improvements in design methodologies, dams and water-retaining structures failures continue to occur. Dams’ failure analysis plays a crucial role in the development of dam safety planning and emergency action. Since the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been built, there have been many concerns about its safety and its effects on downstream countries in case of its failure. In this paper, the GERD break was modeled by using the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Two dimensions model under different failure scenarios was suggested. Moreover, outflow hydrographs and flood inundation maps were presented due to dam breach. Finally, it was concluded that, in case of catastrophic failure, flow depths may vary from 3 to 10 m in some residential areas, such as Khartoum. Furthermore, the water surface elevation may reach 184 m above msl (mean sea level) in Lake Nasser in case of dam failure with a fully stored GERD reservoir. Moreover, the maximum flow would reach 325,928 m3/sec which is more than 21.5 times the total capacity of the dam spillway. Finally, the paper’s outcomes may assist decision-makers in developing alternate plans to deal with the dangers of GERD break.

Determination of GERR lifespan using RUSLE method and GIS integration

Soil erosion is a grave and ongoing matter that poses an intimidation to the ecosystem all around the world. On basins with enormous surface areas, sedimentation has a significant impact. The Blue Nile basin is considered one of these basins that would be exposed to erosion and sedimentation after construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will retain a large amount of sediments. The goal of this study is to calculate the lifespan of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Reservoir (GERR). In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) method, with the help of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS), was utilized in order to determine soil erosion and sediment yield from the Blue Nile basin. Accordingly, lifespan of GERR could be estimated. The findings revealed that the total annual soil loss computed for Blue Nile basin is about 4.06*108 t. y−1, the total annual sediment yield equals about 1.21*108 t. y−1 and life span of GERR is estimated about 611 years. The approach presented in this study can be benefited from and applied in other basins that have the same conditions. Decision makers are able to use this approach to get reasonable results and control the problem of soil erosion and sedimentation.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ СЕКЬЮРИТИЗАЦИИ ВОДНОГО ВОПРОСА В ЭФИОПИИ В РАМКАХ КРИТИЧЕСКИХ ПОДХОДОВ К ИССЛЕДОВАНИЮ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

This article seeks to explore the problem of water security in Ethiopia, involving the implementation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project. With its existential significance for the Ethiopian nation attributed to the dam, discovering the mechanisms of constructing threats to water security, as well as possible structural preconditions for a shift from confrontational to compromise politics, are examined. Therefore, an analysis of the Ethiopian discourse on GERD is being carried out in order to identify possible signs of securitisation and / or de-securitisation of the water issue. The research also compares the explanatory power of various approaches within the theory of securitisation for this case. The key finding is the explanation of the phenomenon of water securitisation in Ethiopia as an established political technology for the management of internal processes, in contrast to the traditional approach which posits an intersubjective policy of decisive action.