Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Research Articles

Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile River with climate and socio-economic uncertainties

The uncertainties around the hydrological and socio-economic implications of climate change pose a challenge for Nile River system management, especially with rapidly rising demands for river-system-related services and political tensions between the riparian countries. Cooperative adaptive management of the Nile can help alleviate some of these stressors and tensions. Here we present a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by designing a cooperative adaptive management policy for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that balances the transboundary economic and biophysical interests of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. This shows that if the three countries compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.

The downstream impact of the first and second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Water conflicts arise from geostrategic factors that hide behind visible ones such as the construction of dams. In the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), it will have a significant impact on development in Ethiopia, but its filling has worried downstream countries about altering the flow of the Nile and associated ecosystems. In this study, several high spatiotemporal resolution remote sensing products were used on the basis of artificial intelligence in Google Earth Engine. The results show that the two first filling phases had no effect on the reservoirs of the dams in Sudan and Egypt, nor on the vegetation cover. On the contrary, significant reserves of water have been stored in response to unusual floods in the White Nile, and the recent trend of increasing vegetation cover has not been affected likely due to groundwater contributions and judicious anticipation, and the provision of resources for food security. In general, the parties must take long-term collaborative measures to ensure effective management and reduce waste, especially in the upcoming filling.

The role of Renaissance dam in reducing hydrological extremes in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: Current and future climate scenarios

Climate change poses a great threat to society through its effects on extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts) and the sustainable development. Coping with climate change requires a better awareness of the possible impacts to inform climate adaptation strategies. In this study, we investigated the climate projections from two contrasting GCMs (wet scenario from MIROC5 and dry scenario from CSIRO) and quantified the possible outcomes in terms of hydrological components of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB). These two climate projection scenarios show that the overall precipitation change in the early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070), and late century (2071–2100) over the UBNB may vary from –18.3 % to + 13.6 % of the baseline annual precipitation of 1350 mm. The hydrological simulations over the basin from our study showed that evapotranspiration may vary between –13.7 % and + 12.1 % of the average annual total actual ET of 710 mm, and the flow at the basin outlet may range between –40.7 % and + 30.8 % of the mean annual total flow volume of 45 billion cubic meters. As a result, the wet projection exhibited more frequent floods while the dry projection showed severe droughts, specifically in the late century. We also examined the role of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), designed for hydropower generation, in moderating these potential future climate hydrological extremes. Our findings indicate that GERD operations can help reduce downstream flood and drought severity by managing flow releases. Thus, this study illustrates the most possible extreme hydrological events in the UBNB due to climate change and demonstrates the degree to which GERD operations can help reduce the impact of these extremes downstream. The findings and data generated in this study will aid understanding the importance of sustainable water management and reservoir operation that caters to both hydropower generation, and recurring floods and droughts.

Ecological status of Lake Nasser Khors, Egypt, before operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Lake Nasser is an artificial reservoir that represents the national freshwater reserve of Egypt and has a number of khors (side extensions) along its eastern and western banks. These khors covered approximately 79% of the lake’s total surface area and have an important effect on water quality and fish production in the lake. This study aimed to monitor and assess the water quality, distribution, and structure of the biotic community, including phytoplankton, zooplankton, macrophytes, epiphytes, and macrobenthos in two main khors (Tushka West and Dahmeit) during postflood and preflood periods. There was urgency associated with the study, as it was the last opportunity before the storing of the water behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which had begun to fill in July 2020. Although the study confirmed that the water quality of Lake Nasser was good, it is classified as a eutrophic lake (depending on the levels of Chlorophyll-a and nutrients). This study found that pH, NO2, SiO4, NH4, PO4, and temperature were the factors with the greatest effect on the biota community, especially in Dahmeit Khor. In contrast to the phytoplankton and macrobenthos, the highest total density of zooplankton and epiphytic microalgae were detected during the postflood period. This study could be useful in monitoring possible changes in the Lake Nasser environment after the complete filling of the GERD reservoir.

Water quality of the Blue Nile at Khartoum, Sudan, before complete filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Physico-chemical variables were monitored biweekly for the Blue Nile at Khartoum between July 2017–June 2019. The aim was to document the present status of water quality at Khartoum before complete filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Physico-chemical parameters within acceptable limits recommended by WHO for drinking water included pH (7.2–10.8), temperature (13.7–30.4 °C), conductivity (137–281 μS cm−1), total dissolved solids (75–141 mg l−1), total residue (5–3194 mg l−1), alkalinity (93–176 mg CaCO3 l−1), dissolved oxygen (3.5–10.9 mg l−1), nitrite–nitrogen (<detection limit (DL)−43 µg l−1), ammonium–nitrogen (<DL−940 µg l−1), nitrate– nitrogen (<DL−1468 µg l−1), phosphate–phosphorus (<DL−63 µg l−1), silica (4.0–23.6 mg l−1), iron (<DL−250 µg l−1) sodium (3.2–15.7 mg l−1), potassium (0.7–5.6 mg l−1), calcium (6.2–30.3 mg l−1), and magnesium (1.5–11.5 mg l−1). Total residue and pH were amongst the measured variables that were outside of the WHO recommendations. This study revealed that the Blue Nile remains generally unpolluted, and has not been significantly negatively affected by runoff from urbanisation or sewage contamination. This study presents further evidence that industrial wastes discharged upstream of Khartoum have not accumulated downstream as they are carried into the Main Nile by the annual floodwater pulses. The water is therefore currently suitable for drinking and all other uses. However, accumulation of pollutants in the Blue Nile may be problematic once filling of the GERD is complete as the discharge during flooding events necessary to flush the river will be reduced.

Land use land cover analysis of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) catchment using remote sensing and GIS techniques

ABSTRACT Evaluation of land use change is important for understanding the relationship between nature and the future policy design in sustainable natural resources management. In this study the dam-triggered land use cover changes since the time of its commencement of construction was evaluated by using satellite remote sensing and GIS techniques. To detect changes between 2011 and 2021, the post-processing technique was applied using QGIS’s SCP tool and two raster images of 2011 and 2021 as inputs for change simulation and the output classes were edited using reference classes. The study results revealed that the overall accuracy for the 2011 classification and 2021 classification was 0.89 (89%) and 0.94 (94%) respectively. The highest conversion was recorded between agricultural land to the mixed forest (14.61%) and mixed forest to shrub land (13.40%), while the lowest conversion was observed between the built-up area to a water body (0.02%) and to agricultural land (0.1%). It was recommended to consider the correlation between forest biodiversity conservation and the sustainability of hydroelectric dam by increasing restoration of degraded forests in the GERD catchment and growing forest cover should be viewed as an issue of national energy security as early as possible.

A new era for public–private partnership (PPPs) in Egypt’s urban water supply projects: risk assessment and operating model

ABSTRACT The UN summit entitled “Transforming Our World: Sustainable Development Plan 2030“considered the provision of clean water and sanitation (Goal no 6) one of the 17 key goals that the UN is striving to achieve. In this respect, Egypt is considered one of the countries that will suffer from water shortage because of establishing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and tremendous population growth. This research explores the current state of the water supply sector in Egypt based on the distinctive characteristics and challenges facing the development in this sector. Previous literature has examined the key performance indicators (KPIs) for the water supply sector, (PPPs) approach as an effective tool to promote the water supply sector, China's expertise in water supply by PPPsand summarizing the potential multiple risks associated with water supply projects from the literature reviews. Thereafter, an electronic questionnaire was conducted with multidisciplinary experts to identify optimal models (PPPs), weighted for (PPPs) pillars, and assess the potential risks by the Egyptian economy, and social circumstances in the field of water supply. As such, the findings in this research identify and rank the high potential risks based on the opinion of the experts, and an operating model to promote the (PPPs) projects in the water sector in Egypt was proposed based on the identified risk factors (KPIs) and the (PPPs) agreements.

Evaluation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Lake Using Remote Sensing Data and GIS

Ethiopia began constructing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 on the Blue Nile near the borders of Sudan for electricity production. The dam was constructed as a roller-compacted concrete (RCC) gravity-type dam, comprising two power stations, three spillways, and the Saddle Dam. The main dam is expected to be 145 m high and 1780 m long. After filling of the dam, the estimated volume of Nile water to be bounded is about 74 billion m3. The first filling of the dam reservoir started in July 2020. It is crucial to monitor the newly impounded lake and its size for the water security balance for the Nile countries. We used remote sensing techniques and a geographic information system to analyze different satellite images, including multi-looking Sentinel-2, Landsat-9, and Sentinel-1 (SAR), to monitor the changes in the volume of water from 21 July 2020 to 28 August 2022. The volume of Nile water during and after the first, second, and third filling was estimated for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Reservoir Lake and compared for future hazards and environmental impacts. The proposed monitoring and early warning system of the Nile Basin lakes is essential to act as a confidence-building measure and provide an opportunity for cooperation between the Nile Basin countries.

Water Levels in the Major Reservoirs of the Nile River Basin—A Comparison of SENTINEL with Satellite Altimetry Data

With the increasing number of reservoirs on the Nile River Basin, it has become important to understand the reservoir operations in the basin for coordinated water management among the various countries. With the lack of a proper framework for data sharing amongst the Nile basin countries, satellite remote sensing provides a simple transparent way to continuously monitor the changes taking place in reservoirs in all regions of the Nile River Basin. This paper presents a comparison between Sentinel-1- and Sentinel-2-derived reservoir water levels and the altimetry-based water level from G-REALM (Global Reservoirs and Lakes Monitor) for three major reservoirs downstream of the Millennium Reservoir impounded by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River for the period of 2014–2021. Water surface extents were derived from Sentinel-1 using dynamic thresholds and from Sentinel-2 with the use of the NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index). The water levels were estimated using a DEM-based contour matching technique. For Roseires Reservoir, the water levels from Sentinel agreed well with those from G-REALM (RMSE = 0.92 m; R2 = 0.82). For Lake Nasser, the water levels also agreed well (RMSE = 0.72 m; R2 = 0.85). For Lake Merowe, there was a significant mismatch in the derived water levels, mostly due to a lack of sufficient data from both sources. Overall, satellite imagery from Sentinel provides a very good alternative to altimetry-based water levels for the Nile River Basin.

Ethiopian Dam Optimum Hydraulic Operating Conditions to Reduce Unfavorable Impacts on Downstream Countries

As noted by several researchers, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River is expected to have unfavorable consequences for downstream countries like Egypt and Sudan. To limit GERD's negative effects on downstream countries, its operation should be secure, and its upstream water level should be ideal. However, none of the studies carried out the ideal operating scenarios from the perspective of controlling the number of gate openings. Accordingly, this study evaluates the optimal operating scenarios of the GERD and its impact on downstream countries by adopting a mathematical model to analyze the number of gates that can be opened and the depth of opening during different filling years. The paper also presents an environmental impact assessment of some GERD significant factors during construction, filling, and operation, with the goal of developing a mitigation strategy. The results showed that opening 5 gates at 4.56 m over a 10-year filling period would be the safest, most accepted, and most advantageous for Ethiopia and downstream countries. Moreover, creating a water-saving management plan in Egypt to overcome GERD's negative impacts would cost 877 billion Egyptian pounds. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-09-011 Full Text: PDF

Strategi Mesir Menghadapi Ancaman Pembangunan Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd)

Nile river passes through Egypt, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, Eritrea and southern Sudan. The river that is the pride of the Egyptian state does flow to various countries, but other countries do not feel the benefits at all. Only Egypt has the right to use the water of the Nile in accordance with the treaties in 1929 and 1959. 97% of Egypt's water supply comes from the Nile. Egypt has become a country with strong control over the distribution of water discharge in the Nile. However, as a country mired in poverty and struggling with severe drought, Ethiopia, considers the agreement irrelevant and very detrimental. Ethiopia finally challenged the historical water access rights through the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This project is planned to be completed in 2022. However, the construction of this dam by Ethiopia of course be a big threat to Egypt because it can drastically reduce the availability of water to the country, so the right strategy is needed to be able to overcome the threat of GERD development. The paper in this study aims to find out how Egypt's strategy is in dealing with the threat of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In this study, the author applies a qualitative method. The author utilizes various related sources such as journals and books and is analyzed using the theory of the National Interest to be able to answer research questions

Impact of filling period of the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam on hydropower generation and hydropower water footprint of Aswan high dam

Impact of filling period of the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam on hydropower generation and hydropower water footprint of Aswan high dam

Evil Challenges and the Economy of Ethiopia at the Era of COVID-19

This article aimed to investigate the challenges that Ethiopia faces during COVID-19. The article looks highly at COVID-19, political instability, desert locust and the ideal conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt on the great Ethiopian renaissance dam. Economic rescission, food insecurity and internal war are also the main topics clearly discussed. The results revealed that unemployment, inflation and income inequality are aggravated as pandemics arise. Thousands were killed and others were displaced due to internal political instability. Output reduction and famine resulted due to desert locust infestation. Bad political spirit is also one fact in Ethiopia due to ideal conflict with Egypt. Consequently, thousands have been arrested; killing innocent people, food insecurity, economic depression and displacement were highly aggravated. While other countries have been moving to prosperity, the Ethiopian economy has been challenged with stagnation. Therefore, the authors suggest that there should be strong intervention from both non-governmental organisation and the government of Ethiopia. Let Ethiopia’s recovery come to tell new development.

Social Systems Engineering for Achieving Cyber Physical‐Social System Multi‐Concern Assurance

AbstractNovel technologies and cyber innovations applied to physical control system infrastructures such as power, water, wastewater, and dams are about to change the world, not just for short‐term profits but also for broader societal interest. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is an example of constructing one of the largest physical control system infrastructures today, creating a reservoir on the Blue Nile to supply electricity to Ethiopia and support the country's societal development. GERD has also created discord with neighboring downstream countries Egypt and Sudan, whose economies depend on the Blue Nile. Internet Protocol (IP)‐connected control systems of the GERD infrastructure make operations vulnerable to cyber failure. Uncertainty of agreement among professionals about cybersecurity and system security engineering coupled with unpredictable social and political developments and uncertainty of the technologies themselves make these systems and societies interacting with the systems more vulnerable to disruption. There are many ways advances in systems sciences and digital engineering converge with the systems engineering (SE) discipline. Such advances require cultural and systems engineering process and methodology changes to support the digital transformation of physical systems. Societal benefits and vulnerabilities to these advances illustrate the value of social systems engineering models and methodologies for measuring the uncertainty of agreement for achieving control physical‐social system multi‐concern assurance.

Identify the Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Watershed Sediment and Water Yields Dynamics

The construction of large-scale water reservoir facilities in transboundary river basins always arouses intense concern and controversy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) under construction in Ethiopia is perceived to affect water security in Egypt and Sudan. Therefore, this study investigated the water and sediment balance of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin and identified the spatio-temporal variation in sediment and water yields along with the construction of GERD using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) sediment and water yield models. The BNR basin experienced increasing water and sediment yields between 1992 and 2020 and has shown a growth trend since 2020. The lion’s share of water and sediment yields come from upstream of the GERD. Taken together, these results imply that the construction of the GERD will serve as a water storage and silt trap for Sudan and Egypt.

Realist Perspectives on Nile Politics: Conflict and Cooperation between Ethiopia and Egypt

ABSTRACT In Northeast Africa, great power interests have often impeded local capabilities for effective statecraft in anarchy. However, construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile presents a revealing case study of evolving domestic constraints on foreign policy. Three realist perspectives may be drawn upon to analyze Nile Politics and the GERD through the prism of statecraft and statebuilding in contemporary Ethiopia. In the neoclassical realism analysis, Nile policymaking emerges as a murky outcome of elite preferences and threat constructions. In the subaltern realism analysis, Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD, in defiance of Egypt, is the culmination of a decade-long statebuilding project resulting in improved capabilities for statecraft. In the constructivist realism analysis, Nile politics reveal Ethiopia’s evolving interests and ideational constraints informing variations in preferences for assertive foreign policy orientation. Notably, and in contrast to the association of mainstream constructivist approaches with optimistic outcomes in international politics, analysis of the Nile conflict through constructivist realism reveals the most pessimistic outlook on peaceful resolution, compared to other approaches. Subaltern realism reveals the most optimistic outlook on the outcome of this conflict, due to greater incentives for cooperation introduced by statebuilding constraints in Ethiopia’s increasingly unstable contemporary polity.

Potential Assessment and Performance Evaluation of a Floating Solar Photovoltaic on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The demand for electricity has increased rapidly in Ethiopia. Renewable energy sources such as solar PV are being used to respond to the power demand and cover a small percentage of the country’s energy need. However, in Ethiopia, where the majority of the land is utilized for agriculture, the land required to generate solar PV power in a large scale is a significant barrier. Big dams, such as Great Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam, can be used for a solar floating system to eliminate the need for land and transmission infrastructure. Due to its wider area covered by the reservoir, which is about 1,874,000,000 m2, the potential of the renaissance dam needs to be investigated for solar PV floating installation to meet the electricity demand in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in Ethiopia. In addition, the cooling action of the water on the PV floating allows it to keep its efficiency and increase the power output from the panels. In this study, the performance of grid-connected floating PV systems was evaluated in terms of power generation potential, performance ratio, capacity utilization factor, greenhouse gas emissions, and water conservation. The power consumption of peoples living in the GERD generation site is nearly 1 MW. Though they get electricity through the grid, this study considers performance assessment of a 1 MW solar FPV with the intention of covering the energy need of the hydropower station itself and near rural communities. Modeling and simulation of the proposed FPV plant is done with the help of PVsyst software tool. Finally, the analysis reveals that the GERD has the FPV capability to generate 18,740 MW of maximum power, and its performance was assessed for a 1 MW grid-connected FPV system. The benefits of employing FPV in energy production, water conservation, CO2 emission reduction, and economic benefit are demonstrated in this study. Furthermore, the installation of 1 MW FPV saves 54.4 million liters of GERD water from evaporation per year, which benefits the Blue Nile’s downstream countries to conserve their share of water.

The Role of Internal and External Factors in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Crisis

The Role of Internal and External Factors in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Crisis

Impacts of Ethiopia Dam on Vegetation and Water and Ecological Countermeasures

Ethiopia is one of the highest lying countries in Africa, known as the “Roof of Africa”. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is established to solve the problem of electricity shortage, storing and supplying water. This study analyzes the impacts of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia on vegetation and water through random forest model and index map via semi-automatic classification module of QGIS’s plugin. Results show that area of vegetation around the dam decreases and the water area increases during dam construction. Based on previous studies, the dam has variable impacts on surrounding vegetation, water quality and level. Renaissance dam has had a negative impact on the surrounding vegetation and water level for decades of construction, but a positive impact on the water quality. Considering the ecological system and sustainable development as the ultimate goal, it needs to make full use of environmental assessment and establish the ecological operation mode of dam for achieving better results.

Developing an Optimized Policy Tree-Based Reservoir Operation Model for High Aswan Dam Reservoir, Nile River

The impacts of climate change on the Nile River and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along with the increased water demand downstream suggest an urgent need for more efficient management of the reservoir system that is well-informed by accurate modeling and optimization of the reservoir operation. This study provides an updated water balance model for Aswan High Dam Reservoir, which was validated using combined heterogeneous sources of information, including in situ gauge data, bias-corrected reanalyzed data, and remote sensing information. To investigate the future challenges, the spatial distribution of the annual/seasonal Aswan High Dam Reservoir surface air temperature trends over the period from 1979 to 2018 was studied. An increase of around 0.48 °C per decade in average annual temperature was detected, a trend that is expected to continue until 2100. Moreover, a set of machine learning models were developed and utilized to bias-correct the reanalyzed inflow and outflow data available for Aswan High Dam Reservoir. Finally, a policy tree optimization model was developed to inform the decision-making process and operation of the reservoir system. Results from the historical test simulations show that including reliable inflow data, accurate estimation of evaporation losses, and including new regulations and added projects, such as the Toshka Project, greatly affect the simulation results and guide managers through how the reservoir system should be operated in the future.