Developing an Optimized Policy Tree-Based Reservoir Operation Model for High Aswan Dam Reservoir, Nile River

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on the Nile River and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along with the increased water demand downstream suggest an urgent need for more efficient management of the reservoir system that is well-informed by accurate modeling and optimization of the reservoir operation. This study provides an updated water balance model for Aswan High Dam Reservoir, which was validated using combined heterogeneous sources of information, including in situ gauge data, bias-corrected reanalyzed data, and remote sensing information. To investigate the future challenges, the spatial distribution of the annual/seasonal Aswan High Dam Reservoir surface air temperature trends over the period from 1979 to 2018 was studied. An increase of around 0.48 °C per decade in average annual temperature was detected, a trend that is expected to continue until 2100. Moreover, a set of machine learning models were developed and utilized to bias-correct the reanalyzed inflow and outflow data available for Aswan High Dam Reservoir. Finally, a policy tree optimization model was developed to inform the decision-making process and operation of the reservoir system. Results from the historical test simulations show that including reliable inflow data, accurate estimation of evaporation losses, and including new regulations and added projects, such as the Toshka Project, greatly affect the simulation results and guide managers through how the reservoir system should be operated in the future.