Gradient Boosting Model Research Articles

Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values

Machine learning and artificial intelligence are often described as “black boxes.” Traditional linear regression is interpreted through its marginal relationships as captured by regression coefficients. We show that the same marginal relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by calculating the slope of the partial dependence functions, which we call the partial marginal effect (PME). We prove that the PME of OLS is analytically equivalent to the OLS regression coefficient. Bootstrapping provides standard errors and confidence intervals around the point estimates of the PMEs. We apply the PME to a hedonic house pricing example and demonstrate that the PMEs of neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, and gradient boosting models reveal the non-linear relationships discovered by the machine learning models and allow direct comparison between those models and a traditional linear regression. Finally we extend PME to a Shapley value decomposition and explore how it can be used to further explain model outputs.

Machine learning prediction of supercapacitor performance of N-doped biochar from biomass wastes based on N-containing groups, element compositions, and pore structures

N-doped biochar has great potential for development in the field of supercapacitors. In this study, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting models are used to predict the specific capacitance of N-doped biochar. The prediction is based on several features, including pore structure parameters, element composition, N-containing group of N-doped biochar, and electrochemical testing characteristics. Shapley additive explanations and partial dependency plots are used to explore the impact of the features on specific capacitance. Results show that both the Random Forest and the Extreme Gradient Boosting models exhibited excellent prediction performance, with R2 of 0.95 and 0.96, respectively. N-6 contributes more to the higher specific capacitance among the three N-containing groups. According to the partial dependency plots, when the specific surface area, pore size, and degree of graphitization are around 2200 m2/g, 4 nm, and 1, respectively, the specific capacitance of N-doped biochar is about 303 F/g at 1 A/g. In addition, a procedure for predicting the specific capacitance of N-doped biochar is developed based on the PySimpleGUI library and the Extreme Gradient Boosting model. This study provides a reference for the preparation of high specific capacitance of N-doped biochar.

Module-based machine learning models using sigma profiles of organic linkers to predict gaseous adsorption in metal-organic frameworks

BackgroundMetal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have drawn considerable attention for their potential in adsorption applications, such as gas separation and storage. Machine learning (ML) augmented high-throughput screening approaches have emerged as an effective strategy to expedite the materials search. Traditionally, ML models developed to predict the adsorption properties of MOFs rely on various geometrical and chemical descriptors. While these descriptors are effective, they tend to be specific to each MOF's unique structure, completely omitting the modular nature of MOFs. MethodsA new approach is proposed in this study: a modular descriptor based on the sigma profile of MOF organic linkers. These sigma profiles effectively represent the chemical environment of organic linkers. With these profiles as input features, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models to predict the Henry's coefficient (KH) of adsorption for hydrocarbons and acid gases in MOFs. FindingsThe results show that sigma profiles enhance the prediction accuracy and emerge as the most important features for hydrocarbon gases. This study highlights the potential of sigma profiles in developing accurate ML models for identifying optimal MOF adsorbents. Such an approach could also facilitate an inverse design of MOFs with targeted properties.

Quantifying seasonal variations in pollution sources with machine learning-enhanced positive matrix factorization

As the pace of industrialization and urbanization accelerates, water quality management faces increasing challenges, with traditional methods for pollutant source apportionment often proving inadequate in handling complex environmental data. This study enhances the precision and reliability of pollutant source identification by integrating Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) models with diverse machine learning techniques. Utilizing data from 17 water quality monitoring stations along the Wuding River from 2017 to 2021, we employed Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Elastic Net (EN), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models to predict the Water Quality Index (WQI) during dry and wet seasons. Results indicate that the RF model exhibited optimal performance in the dry season (R2 = 0.93), while the SVM was superior in the wet season (R2 = 0.94). SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) value analysis identified CODMn and NH3-N as significant influencers on WQI in the dry season, whereas COD, BOD, and TP gained prominence during the wet season. SHAP values reveal the contribution of each feature to the model output, thereby enhancing the model’s transparency and interpretability. Additionally, feature importance identified by machine learning was utilized as weights to optimize the contribution rates predicted by the PMF model. The optimised model was able to identify the contribution of domestic and farm effluent discharges more accurately in the dry season, with a significant increase in the percentage of identification from 19.4 % to 45.4 %, and an increase in the percentage of contribution from agricultural non-point sources and domestic effluent in the rainy season. This research offers a novel perspective on the characteristics of river water pollution and holds significant implications for formulating data-driven environmental management strategies.

Variational quantum algorithm for forecasting drugs for corrosion inhibitor

This study explores the development and evaluation of a Variational Quantum Algorithm (VQA) for predicting a drug as a corrosion inhibitor, highlighting its advantages over traditional regression models. The VQA leverages quantum-enhanced feature mapping and optimization techniques to capture complex, non-linear relationships within the data. Comparative analysis with AutoRegressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) and Gradient Boosting (GB) models demonstrate the superior performance of VQA across key metrics, including Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The VQA achieved the lowest RMSE (4.40), MAE (3.33), and MAD (3.17) values, indicating enhanced predictive accuracy and stability. These results underscore the potential of quantum machine learning techniques in advancing predictive modeling capabilities, offering significant improvements in accuracy and consistency over classical methods. The findings suggest that VQA is a promising approach for applications requiring high precision and reliability, paving the way for broader adoption of quantum-enhanced models in material science and beyond.

Construction of Ensemble Learning Model for Home Appliance Demand Forecasting

Given the increasing competition among household appliance enterprises, accurately predicting household appliance demand is crucial for enterprise supply chain management and marketing. This paper proposes a combined model integrating deep learning and ensemble learning—LSTM-RF-XGBoost—to assist enterprises in identifying customer demand, thereby addressing the complexity and uncertainty of the household appliance market demand. In this study, Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models are established separately. Then, the three individual algorithms are used as the base models in the first layer, with the multiple linear regression (MLR) algorithm serving as the meta-model in the second layer, merging the demand prediction model based on the hybrid model into the overall demand prediction model. This study demonstrates that the accuracy and stability of demand prediction using the LSTM–RF–XGBoost model significantly outperform traditional single models, highlighting the significant advantages of using a combined model. This research offers practical and innovative solutions for enterprises seeking rational resource allocation through demand prediction.

Interactive effects analysis of road, traffic, and weather characteristics on shared e-bike speeding risk: A data-driven approach

As electric bikes (e-bikes) rapidly develop in China, their traffic safety issues are becoming increasingly prominent. Accurately detecting risky riding behaviors and conducting mechanism analysis on the multiple risk factors are crucial in formulating and implementing precise management policies. The emergence of shared e-bikes and the advancements in interpretable machine learning present new opportunities for accurately analyzing the determinants of risky riding behaviors. The primary objective of this study is to examine and analyze the risk factors related to speeding behavior to aid urban management agencies in crafting necessary management policies. This study utilizes a large-scale dataset of shared e-bike trajectory data to establish a framework for detecting speeding behavior. Subsequently, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model is employed to identify the level of speeding risk by leveraging its excellent identification ability. Moreover, based on measuring the degree of interaction among road, traffic, and weather characteristics, the investigation of the complex interactive effects of these risk factors on high-risk speeding is conducted using bivariate partial dependence plots (PDP) by its superior parsing ability. Feature importance analysis results indicate that the top five ranked variables that significantly affect the identified results of speed risk levels are land use density, rainfall, road level, curbside parking density, and bike lane width. The interaction analysis results indicate that higher levels of road and bike lane width correspond to an increased possibility of high-risk speeding among riders. Land use density, curbside parking density, and rainfall display a nonlinear effect on high-risk speeding. Introducing road level, bike lane width, and time interval could change the patterns of nonlinear effects in land use density, curbside parking density, and rainfall. Finally, several policy recommendations are proposed to improve e-bike traffic safety by utilizing the extracted feature values associated with a higher probability of high-risk speeding.

Predicting Forest Fire Area Growth Rate Using an Ensemble Algorithm

Due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions, the Liangshan Prefecture region is highly prone to large fires. There is an urgent need to study the growth rate of fire-burned areas to fill the research gap in this region. To address this issue, this study uses the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm to optimize the hyperparameters in the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, constructing a GWO-XGBoost model. Finally, the optimized ensemble model (GWO-XGBoost) is used to create a fire growth rate warning map for the Liangshan Prefecture in Sichuan Province, China, filling the research gap in forest fire studies in this area. This study comprehensively selects factors such as monthly climate, monthly vegetation, terrain, and socio–economic aspects and incorporates monthly reanalysis data from forest fire assessment systems in Canada, the United States, and Australia as features to construct the forest fire dataset. After collinearity tests to filter redundant features and Pearson correlation analysis to explore features related to the burned area growth rate, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) is used to oversample the positive class samples. The GWO algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters in the XGBoost model, constructing the GWO-XGBoost model, which is then compared with XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), and Logistic Regression (LR) models. Model evaluation results showed that the GWO-XGBoost model, with an AUC value of 0.8927, is the best-performing model. Using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value analysis method to quantify the contribution of each influencing factor indicates that the Ignition Component (IC) value from the United States National Fire Danger Rating System contributes the most, followed by the average monthly temperature and the population density. The growth rate warning map results indicate that the southern part of the study area is the key fire prevention area.

A stacking ensemble machine learning model for evaluating cardiac toxicity of drugs based on in silico biomarkers.

This study addresses the critical issue of drug-induced torsades de pointes (TdP) risk assessment, a vital aspect of new drug development due to its association with arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death. Existing methodologies, particularly those reliant on a single biomarker derived from CiPA O'Hara-Rudy (CiPAORdv1.0) ventricular cell model without the hERG dynamic as input to the individual machine learning model, have limitations in capturing the complexity inherent in the comprehensive range of factors influencing drug-induced TdP risk. This study aims to overcome these limitations by proposing a stacking ensemble machine learning approach by integrating multiple in silico biomarkers derived from the CiPAORdv1.0 with hERG dynamic characteristics. The ensemble machine learning model consisted of three artificial neural network (ANN) models as baseline model and support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models as meta-classifier. The highest AUC score of 1.00 (0.90-1.00) for high risk, 0.97 (0.84-1.00) for intermediate risk, and 1.00 (0.87-1.00) for low risk were obtained using seven biomarkers derived from the CiPAORdv1.0 with hERG dynamic characteristics. Furthering our investigation, we explored the model's robustness by incorporating interindividual variability into the generation of in silico biomarkers from a population of human ventricular cell models. This study also enabled an analysis of TdP risk classification under high clinical exposure and therapeutic scenarios for several drugs. Additionally, from a sensitivity analysis, we revealed four important ion channels, namely, CaL, NaL, Na, and Kr channels that affect significantly the important biomarkers for TdP risk prediction.

Spatial Mapping of Soil CO2 Flux in the Yellow River Delta Farmland of China Using Multi-Source OpticalRemote Sensing Data

The spatial prediction of soil CO2 flux is of great significance for assessing regional climate change and high-quality agricultural development. Using a single satellite to predict soil CO2 flux is limited by climatic conditions and land cover, resulting in low prediction accuracy. To this end, this study proposed a strategy of multi-source spectral satellite coordination and selected seven optical satellite remote sensing data sources (i.e., GF1-WFV, GF6-WFV, GF4-PMI, CB04-MUX, HJ2A-CCD, Sentinel 2-L2A, and Landsat 8-OLI) to extract auxiliary variables (i.e., vegetation indices and soil texture features). We developed a tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE)-optimized extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model for the prediction and spatial mapping of soil CO2 flux. SHapley additive explanation (SHAP) was used to analyze the driving effects of auxiliary variables on soil CO2 flux. A scatter matrix correlation analysis showed that the distributions of auxiliary variables and soil CO2 flux were skewed, and the linear correlations between them (r < 0.2) were generally weak. Compared with single-satellite variables, the TPE-XGBoost model based on multiple-satellite variables significantly improved the prediction accuracy (RMSE = 3.23 kg C ha−1 d−1, R2 = 0.73), showing a stronger fitting ability for the spatial variability of soil CO2 flux. The spatial mapping results of soil CO2 flux based on the TPE-XGBoost model revealed that the high-flux areas were mainly concentrated in eastern and northern farmlands. The SHAP analysis revealed that PC2 and the TCARI of Sentinel 2-L2A and the TVI of HJ2A-CCD had significant positive driving effects on the prediction accuracy of soil CO2 flux. The above results indicate that the integration of multiple-satellite data can enhance the reliability and accuracy of spatial predictions of soil CO2 flux, thereby supporting regional agricultural sustainable development and climate change response strategies.

Aboveground biomass inversion of forestland in a Jinsha River dry-hot valley by integrating high and medium spatial resolution optical images: A case study on Yuanmou County of Southwest China

It is crucial to develop a comprehensive method for estimating the aboveground biomass (AGB) of trees, shrubs, grasslands, and sparse tree areas in ecologically fragile dry, hot valley regions with vertical zonation. Multi-source remote-sensing data can fulfill this requirement, providing help in monitoring the health of ecosystems and providing a basis for regional biodiversity conservation and restoration. Sentinel-2A satellite imagery was used to classify the forests, shrubs, and grasslands in Yuanmou County, Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China. The Gaofen-2 satellite (GF-2) was used to extract the canopy width and calculate tree biomass in the valley-type savanna region. These data were combined with remote-sensing factors and measured survey data, and random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were used to estimate the biomass. Using GF-2 images to segment sparse tree areas effectively reduced the overestimation of low-resolution remote-sensing images, enabling the AGB of sparse trees to be accurately estimated. The biomass estimations based on the Sentinel-2A images attained coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.45 and 0.47 for the forest, 0.55 and 0.61 for the shrubs, and 0.32 and 0.37 for the grasslands using RF and XGBoost models, respectively, demonstrating variable effectiveness across vegetation types. In addition, the XGBoost model was more robust than the RF model for all three vegetation types. Our methodology provides scientific support for the sustainable development of ecologically fragile dry, hot valleys and savanna areas.

Targeting SDG7: Identifying heterogeneous energy dilemmas for socially disadvantaged groups in India using machine learning

To achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, prioritizing the socially disadvantaged segments of the population is imperative, given their inherent susceptibility to heightened risks of energy exclusion. However, a comprehensive understanding of the diverse energy challenges faced by households with socio-economic disparities remains elusive. This article thus addresses this gap by examining three widely acknowledged categories of marginalized households in India: racial inferiority, income poverty, and gender inequality. It notably pioneers the quantification of an umbrella pattern of energy deprivation within the SDG7 framework, encompassing energy unaffordability, energy unreliability, energy inaccessibility, and energy inequality. To do so, leveraging the latest household survey dataset and employing least squares estimates, we preliminarily capture that these three disadvantaged groups encounter significant energy barriers in the pursuit of SDG7 achievement. Given respectively selected models based on Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) approach, the gradient boosting model (GBM), another state-of-the-art machine learning technique, is subsequently adopted to verify feature significance and rank its importance in determining diverse energy deprivation faced by each group. The results reveal that the disadvantaged caste groups and those experiencing greater gender inequality encounter the greatest impediments to their right to reliable energy access. In comparison, energy unaffordability poses a paramount challenge for low-income households. These findings enable policymakers to design straightforward interventions that address a spectrum of socio-economic disparities, thereby fostering an just energy transition grounded in data-driven evidence.

Optimizing evaluation of endometrial receptivity in recurrent pregnancy loss: a preliminary investigation integrating radiomics from multimodal ultrasound via machine learning.

Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) frequently links to a prolonged endometrial receptivity (ER) window, leading to the implantation of non-viable embryos. Existing ER assessment methods face challenges in reliability and invasiveness. Radiomics in medical imaging offers a non-invasive solution for ER analysis, but complex, non-linear radiomic-ER relationships in RPL require advanced analysis. Machine learning (ML) provides precision for interpreting these datasets, although research in integrating radiomics with ML for ER evaluation in RPL is limited. To develop and validate an ML model that employs radiomic features derived from multimodal transvaginal ultrasound images, focusing on improving ER evaluation in RPL. This retrospective, controlled study analyzed data from 346 unexplained RPL patients and 369 controls. The participants were divided into training and testing cohorts for model development and accuracy validation, respectively. Radiomic features derived from grayscale (GS) and shear wave elastography (SWE) images, obtained during the window of implantation, underwent a comprehensive five-step selection process. Five ML classifiers, each trained on either radiomic, clinical, or combined datasets, were trained for RPL risk stratification. The model demonstrating the highest performance in identifying RPL patients was selected for further validation using the testing cohort. The interpretability of this optimal model was augmented by applying Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis. Analysis of the training cohort (242 RPL, 258 controls) identified nine key radiomic features associated with RPL risk. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, combining radiomic and clinical data, demonstrated superior discriminatory ability. This was evidenced by its area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.871, outperforming other ML classifiers. Validation in the testing cohort of 215 subjects (104 RPL, 111 controls) confirmed its accuracy (AUC: 0.844) and consistency. SHAP analysis identified four endometrial SWE features and two GS features, along with clinical variables like age, SAPI, and VI, as key determinants in RPL risk stratification. Integrating ML with radiomics from multimodal endometrial ultrasound during the WOI effectively identifies RPL patients. The XGBoost model, merging radiomic and clinical data, offers a non-invasive, accurate method for RPL management, significantly enhancing diagnosis and treatment.

Combined influence of nutritional and inflammatory status and breast cancer: findings from the NHANES

BackgroundPrevious studies have hinted at the benefits of following an anti-inflammatory diet for potentially reducing breast cancer prevalence. However, the combined influence of diet and inflammation on breast cancer remains unclear.MethodsThe advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI) was used to assess inflammation and nutritional status. Statistical methods, such as multivariable logistic regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, and subgroup analysis, were employed to analyze the impact of ALI on prevalence of BC. Additionally, a two-piece-wise logistic regression model with smoothing was used to determine the ALI threshold for BC prevalence. The study aimed to understand the mechanistic association between ALI levels and BC development.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of the study population was 50.0 (17.7) years, with 40.0% of individuals classified as obese. Comparing ALI tertiles to the lowest tertile, the odds ratios (95% CI) for breast cancer (BC) were 0.78 (0.62, 0.98) and 0.68 (0.52, 0.87) for T2-T3. The XGBoost machine learning model was employed to assess the importance of selected factors, revealing ALI as one of the top five variables influencing BC. Subgroup analysis identified a correlation between ALI, alcohol consumption, and menopausal status. Additionally, ALI levels were associated with decreased estradiol (E2) levels, increased total testosterone (TT)/E2 ratio, and TT/sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) ratio.ConclusionThis study indicates a potential protective effect of ALI levels against breast cancer, possibly related to sex hormone disruption. The findings support the use of optimal therapeutic strategies for preventing breast cancer.

Interpretable machine learning model for early prediction of acute kidney injury in patients with rhabdomyolysis

Abstract Background Rhabdomyolysis (RM) is a complex set of clinical syndromes. RM-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common illness in war and military operations. This study aimed to develop an interpretable and generalizable model for early AKI prediction in patients with RM. Methods Retrospective analyses were performed on 2 electronic medical record databases: the eICU Collaborative Research Database and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database. Data were extracted from the first 24 hours after patient admission. Data from the two datasets were merged for further analysis. The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model with the Shapley additive explanation method (SHAP) was used to conduct early and interpretable predictions of AKI. Results The analysis included 938 eligible patients with RM. The XGBoost model exhibited superior performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.767) compared to the other models (logistic regression, AUC = 0.711; support vector machine, AUC = 0.693; random forest, AUC = 0.728; and naive Bayesian, AUC = 0.700). Conclusion Although the XGBoost model performance could be improved from an absolute perspective, it provides better predictive performance than other models for estimating the AKI in patients with RM based on patient characteristics in the first 24 hours after admission to an intensive care unit. Furthermore, including SHAP to elucidate AKI-related factors enables individualized patient treatment, potentially leading to improved prognoses for patients with RM.

Artificial Intelligence-Empowered Doppler Weather Profile for Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites.

Low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites are widely acknowledged as a promising infrastructure solution for global Internet of Things (IoT) services. However, the Doppler effect presents a significant challenge in the context of long-range (LoRa) modulation uplink connectivity. This study comprehensively examines the operational efficiency of LEO satellites concerning the Doppler weather effect, with state-of-the-art artificial intelligence techniques. Two LEO satellite constellations-Globalstar and the International Space Station (ISS)-were detected and tracked using ground radars in Perth and Brisbane, Australia, for 24 h starting 1 January 2024. The study involves modelling the constellation, calculating latency, and frequency offset and designing a hybrid Iterative Input Selection-Long Short-Term Memory Network (IIS-LSTM) integrated model to predict the Doppler weather profile for LEO satellites. The IIS algorithm selects relevant input variables for the model, while the LSTM algorithm learns and predicts patterns. This model is compared with Convolutional Neural Network and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. The results show that the packet delivery rate is above 91% for the sensitive spread factor 12 with a bandwidth of 11.5 MHz for Globalstar and 145.8 MHz for ISS NAUKA. The carrier frequency for ISS orbiting at 402.3 km is 631 MHz and 500 MHz for Globalstar at 1414 km altitude, aiding in combating packet losses. The ISS-LSTM model achieved an accuracy of 97.51% and a loss of 1.17% with signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) ranging from 0-30 dB. The XGB model has the fastest testing time, attaining ≈0.0997 s for higher SNRs and an accuracy of 87%. However, in lower SNR, it proves to be computationally expensive. IIS-LSTM attains a better computation time for lower SNRs at ≈0.4651 s, followed by XGB at ≈0.5990 and CNN at ≈0.6120 s. The study calls for further research on LoRa Doppler analysis, considering atmospheric attenuation, and relevant space parameters for future work.

Toward a globally lunar calendar: a machine learning-driven approach for crescent moon visibility prediction

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to harmonizing lunar calendars across different global regions, addressing the long-standing challenge of variations in new crescent Moon sightings that mark the beginning of lunar months. We propose a machine learning (ML)-based framework to predict the visibility of the new crescent Moon, representing a significant advancement toward a globally unified lunar calendar. Our study utilized a dataset covering various countries globally, making it the first to analyze all 12 lunar months over a span of 13 years. We applied a wide array of ML algorithms and techniques. These techniques included feature selection, hyperparameter tuning, ensemble learning, and region-based clustering, all aimed at maximizing the model’s performance. The overall results reveal that the gradient boosting (GB) model surpasses all other models, achieving the highest F1 score of 0.882469 and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.901009. However, with selected features identified through the ANOVA F-test and optimized parameters, the Extra Trees model exhibited the best performance with an F1 score of 0.887872, and an AUC of 0.906242. We expanded our analysis to explore ensemble models, aiming to understand how a combination of models might boost predictive accuracy. The Ensemble Model exhibited a slight improvement, with an F1 score of 0.888058 and an AUC of 0.907482. Additionally, the geographical segmentation of the dataset enhanced predictive performance in certain areas, such as Africa and Asia. In conclusion, ML techniques can provide efficient and reliable tool for predicting the new crescent Moon visibility that would support the decisions of marking the beginning of new lunar months.

Data-Driven Predictive Modeling of Steel Slag Concrete Strength for Sustainable Construction

Conventional concrete causes significant environmental problems, including resource depletion, high CO2 emissions, and high energy consumption. Steel slag aggregate (SSA), a by-product of the steelmaking industry, offers a sustainable alternative due to its environmental benefits and improved mechanical properties. This study examined the predictive power of four modeling techniques—Gene Expression Programming (GEP), an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Gradient Boosting (GB)—to predict the compressive strength (CS) of SSA concrete. Using 367 datasets from the literature, six input variables (cement, water, granulated furnace slag, superplasticizer, coarse aggregate, fine aggregate, and age) were utilized to predict compressive strength. The models’ performance was evaluated using statistical measures such as the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean values, and coefficient of determination (R2). Results indicated that the GB model consistently outperformed RFR, GEP, and the ANN, achieving the highest R2 values of 0.99 and 0.96 for the training and testing dataset, respectively, followed by RFR with R2 values of 0.97 (training) and 0.93 (testing), GEP with R2 values of 0.85 (training) and 0.87 (testing), and ANN with R2 values of 0.61 (training) and 0.82 (testing). Additionally, the GB model had the lowest MAE values of 0.79 MPa (training) and 2.61 MPa (testing) and RMSE values of 1.90 MPa (training) and 3.95 MPa (testing). This research aims to advance predictive modeling in sustainable construction through thorough analysis and well-defined conclusions.

Dietary intake of potassium, vitamin E, and vitamin C emerges as the most significant predictors of cardiovascular disease risk in adults.

Prediction models were developed to assess the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on micronutrient intake, utilizing data from 90,167 UK Biobank participants. Four machine learning models were employed to predict CVD risk, with performance evaluation metrics including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, recall, specificity, and F1-score. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was utilized to rank the importance of 11 micronutrients in cardiovascular health. Results indicated that vitamin E, calcium, vitamin C, and potassium intake were associated with a reduced risk of CVD. The XGBoost model demonstrated the highest performance with an AUC of 0.952, highlighting potassium, vitamin E, and vitamin C as key predictors of CVD risk. Subgroup analysis revealed a stronger correlation between calcium intake and CVD risk in older adults and those with higher BMI, while vitamin B6 intake showed a link to CVD risk in women. Overall, the XGBoost model emphasized the significance of potassium, vitamin E, and vitamin C intake as primary predictors of CVD risk in adults, with age, sex, and BMI potentially influencing the importance of micronutrient intake in predicting CVD risk.

Modeling the thermal transport properties of hydrogen and its mixtures with greenhouse gas impurities: A data-driven machine learning approach

This study introduces machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict hydrogen (H2) thermodynamic properties for geological storage, focusing on its mixtures with natural gas, nitrogen (N2), and carbon dioxide (CO2). Employing 1167 data samples, this research utilizes multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and decision tree (DT) models, enhanced by sensitivity analysis for feature engineering. GB model's superior accuracy and efficiency over conventional statistical linear regression methods. The finding reveals that the GB model achieves superior performance, with an R2 value of 0.9998 for thermal capacity and the lowest mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) across all H2 properties—density (1.51%, 2.06 kg/m3), viscosity (0.000078%, 0.000117 cp), thermal conductivity (0.000427%, 0.000849 W/m.K), and thermal capacity (8.79%, 26.06 J/g.K). Moreover, this ML-based approach not only demonstrates remarkable accuracy and efficiency but also suggests the potential of smart paradigms to further enhance the safety and transportability of underground hydrogen storage projects. Ultimately, this work will help the reservoir simulation at field scale to be more robust and reliable.