Mitigation Goals Research Articles

The water footprint of carbon capture and storage technologies

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is an important technology to reduce fossil CO2 emissions and remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Scenarios for CCS deployment consistent with global climate goals involve gigatonne-scale deployment of CCS within the next several decades. CCS technologies typically involve large water consumption during their energy-intensive capture process. Despite potential concerns, the water footprint of large-scale CCS adoption consistent with stringent climate change mitigation has not yet been explored. This study presents the water footprints (m3 water per tonne CO2 captured) of four prominent CCS technologies: Post-combustion CCS, Pre-combustion CCS, Direct Air CCS, and Bioenergy with CCS. Depending on technology, the water footprint of CCS ranges from 0.74 to 575 m3 H2O/tonne CO2. Bioenergy with CCS is the technology that has the highest water footprint per tonne CO2 captured, largely due to the high water requirements associated with transpiration. The widespread deployment of CCS to meet the 1.5 °C climate target would almost double anthropogenic water footprint. Consequently, this would likely exacerbate and create green and blue water scarcity conditions in many regions worldwide. Climate mitigation scenarios with a diversified portfolio of CCS technologies have lower impacts on water resources than scenarios relying mainly on one of them. The water footprint assessment of CCS is a crucial factor in evaluating these technologies. Water-scarce regions should prioritize water-efficient CCS technologies in their mitigation goals. In conclusion, the most water-efficient way to stabilize the Earth's climate is to rapidly decarbonize our energy systems and improve energy efficiency.

Modelling building energy consumption in China under different future scenarios

Building energy use is becoming increasingly important in China. Despite a rapid growth in recent years, energy use intensity in China is still relatively low compared to other advanced economies; thus, there is still substantial room for it to increase as living standards and industrial services are improved. It is therefore important to focus on the future development of building energy use by considering new trends in the building and energy sectors, as well as the role of occupant behavior. This study uses the China Building Energy Model (CBEM) to model China’s building energy consumption and carbon emissions up to 2050 for different scenarios based on these considerations. The results indicate that building energy use will be 80% higher than the current situation if the strategies of the 13th Five-Year Plan are maintained and approximately 10% higher if stronger strategies toward energy efficiency are employed. Carbon emissions are predicted to peak around 2020 to 2035. The contributions of key strategies in different subsectors are also discussed. This research suggests that, through the use of suitable strategies and policies, energy use and carbon emissions in China’s building sector can achieve the combined goals of energy revolution and climate change mitigation.

Informing urban climate planning with high resolution data: the Hestia fossil fuel CO2 emissions for Baltimore, Maryland

BackgroundCities contribute more than 70% of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and are leading the effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through sustainable planning and development. However, urban greenhouse gas mitigation often relies on self-reported emissions estimates that may be incomplete and unverifiable via atmospheric monitoring of GHGs. We present the Hestia Scope 1 fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions for the city of Baltimore, Maryland—a gridded annual and hourly emissions data product for 2010 through 2015 (Hestia-Baltimore v1.6). We also compare the Hestia-Baltimore emissions to overlapping Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore’s self-reported inventory for 2014.ResultsThe Hestia-Baltimore emissions in 2014 totaled 1487.3 kt C (95% confidence interval of 1158.9–1944.9 kt C), with the largest emissions coming from onroad (34.2% of total city emissions), commercial (19.9%), residential (19.0%), and industrial (11.8%) sectors. Scope 1 electricity production and marine shipping were each generally less than 10% of the city’s total emissions. Baltimore’s self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions included onroad, natural gas consumption in buildings, and some electricity generating facilities within city limits. The self-reported Scope 1 FFCO2 total of 1182.6 kt C was similar to the sum of matching emission sectors and fuels in Hestia-Baltimore v1.6. However, 20.5% of Hestia-Baltimore’s emissions were in sectors and fuels that were not included in the self-reported inventory. Petroleum use in buildings were omitted and all Scope 1 emissions from industrial point sources, marine shipping, nonroad vehicles, rail, and aircraft were categorically excluded.ConclusionsThe omission of petroleum combustion in buildings and categorical exclusions of several sectors resulted in an underestimate of total Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions in Baltimore’s self-reported inventory. Accurate Scope 1 FFCO2 emissions, along with Scope 2 and 3 emissions, are needed to inform effective urban policymaking for system-wide GHG mitigation. We emphasize the need for comprehensive Scope 1 emissions estimates for emissions verification and measuring progress towards Scope 1 GHG mitigation goals using atmospheric monitoring.

Recession and fossil fuel dependence undermine climate policy commitments

Knowledge on the determinants of more or less ambitious climate policies on the country level is still limited, especially with regards to the 2015 Paris Agreement to mitigate global climate change. This is a significant knowledge gap, especially given the review of many contributions to the Paris Agreement due in 2021. I analyse why some countries make insufficient pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, while other countries pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation goals. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the study finds that economic recession, dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation, and levels of development are strong predictors of insufficient climate policies. These results are worrisome in the context of the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the continued predominance of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix.

The Flyer’s dilemma and the Logger’s case for climate justice

The Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change outline mitigation goals by sector. However, this framing is likely to create climate justice issues as it does not explicitly address the contributions of individuals. High emissions from luxury activities like commercial air travel are addressed with voluntary and behavioral change approaches for mitigation while the global rural communities who are dependent on forestry-based livelihoods face carbon credit schemes as well as federal and international conservation interventions despite having a lower per capita carbon footprint. To illustrate this point, the emissions of the average air traveler and several international flights are compared to the average forest user in relation to land use change emissions. In many cases, a single round-trip international flight emits more CO2 per person than the yearly national average of India, Mexico, and Tanzania; all countries with important forestry sectors and indigenous people that depend on forestry-based livelihoods. The disproportionate regulatory burden of forest users in the developing world contrasts their relative contribution to climate change and the unregulated individual behaviors of the global elite. It is time for mandatory offset charges on airline tickets and regulatory framing of mitigation by per capita contributions instead of sector-based approaches.

From Dichotomy to an Integrated Approach: Cities’ Benefits of Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

Cities are facing impacts of climate change and encountering risks such as extreme weather events, while cities are also aiming to contribute to their mitigation goals by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the differences in characteristics of climate change mitigation and adaptation have shown the possible reasons for a dichotomy in climate policy. This has motivated us to further look into whether cities could integrate their actions in climate change mitigation and adaptation in their planning and how they achieve benefits to overcome the dichotomy. To answer our research question, we have developed an analysis framework built on the endogenous risk theory to analyse how cities overcome the different characteristics to integrate their climate strategies and obtain benefits. The theory of endogenous risk involves seeing both climate change mitigation and adaptation as risk reduction strategies because both of them aim to reduce climate risks and can be carried out by actors who perceive such risks. Therefore, the actors will be more willing to integrate and implement both mitigation and adaptation policy. Our results show that mitigation and adaptation in cities are interlinked and that benefits of an integrated climate change policy exist. A list of entry points how cities overcome the dichotomy are also identified. Our research outcomes also provide a list of benefits identified by the cities in their integrated climate strategies and we call for more public disclosed data for future research and policy assessments.

Systematic Literature Review on Behavioral Barriers of Climate Change Mitigation in Households

Achieving climate change mitigation goals requires the mobilization of all levels of society. The potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from households has not yet been fully realized. Given the complex climate change situation around the world, the importance of behavioral economic insights is already understood. Changing household behavior in mitigating climate change is seen as an inexpensive and rapid intervention measure. In this paper, we review barriers of changing household behavior and systematize policies and measures that could help to overcome these barriers. A systematic literature review provided in this paper allows to define future research pathways and could be important for policy-makers to develop measures to help households contribute to climate change mitigation.

How does industrial restructuring influence carbon emissions: City-level evidence from China

This study addresses the question of why industrial restructuring towards light industries or services sometimes fails to achieve carbon emission mitigation goals. By employing a new perspective of dividing industry segments into emission-dominating and non-emission-dominating ones based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method, this paper analyses city-level carbon dioxide emission reduction performance under three distinctive industrial restructuring directions. Results indicate that carbon dioxide emission dominating segments are relatively fixed across cities, regardless of the various city types in China. The key point to achieve emission reduction through industrial restructuring is to identify and control the emission-dominating segments, instead of economic-leading ones. Besides, emission reduction performance of industrial restructuring from emission-dominating industry segments to services is better than that to non-emission-dominating ones. More importantly, industrial restructuring not involving output scale controlling of emission-dominating segments, or that recklessly rushing towards services are likely to fail the emission mitigation goal. This paper presents a strong international reference that merits cities facing policy hesitation over industrial restructuring directions while in pursuit of emission mitigation. It suggests that cities first focus on identifying the carbon dioxide dominating segments, of which the output scale should be controlled. For cities whose emission-dominating segments are not economic-leading ones, it is necessary to carry out industrial restructuring towards services or non-emission-dominating segments; while for cities heavily dependent on emission-dominating segments, energy efficiency should also be improved.

Sustainable wastewater management in Indonesia's fish processing industry: Bringing governance into scenario analysis

The government of Indonesia has pledged to meet ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation goals in its Nationally Determined Contribution as well as reduce water pollution through its water management policies. A set of technologies could conceivably help achieving these goals simultaneously. However, the installation and widespread application of these technologies will require knowledge on how governance affects the implementation of existing policies as well as cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders. This paper integrates key governance variables--involving enforcement capacity, institutional coordination and multi-actor networks--into an analysis of the potential impacts on greenhouse gases and chemical oxygen demand in seven wastewater treatment scenarios for the fish processing industry in Indonesia. The analysis demonstrates that there is an increase of 24% in both CH4 and CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario due to growth in production volumes. Interestingly, in scenarios focusing only on strengthening capacities to enforce national water policies, expected total greenhouse gas emissions are about five times higher than in the business-as-usual in 2030; this is due to growth in CH4 emissions during the handling and landfilling of sludge, as well as in CO2 generated from the electricity required for wastewater treatment. In the scenarios where there is significant cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders to integrate climate and water goals, both estimated chemical oxygen demand and CH4 emissions are considerably lower than in the business-as-usual and the national water policy scenarios.

Five tips for China to realize its co-targets of climate mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

In 2018, a total of US$166 billion global economic losses and a new high of 55.3 Gt of CO2 equivalent emission were generated by 831 climate-related extreme events. As the world's largest CO2 emitter, we reported China's recent progresses and pitfalls in climate actions to achieve climate mitigation targets (i.e., limit warming to 1.5–2°C above the pre-industrial level). We first summarized China's integrated actions (2015 onwards) that benefit both climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These projects include re-structuring organizations, establishing working goals and actions, amending laws and regulations at national level, as well as increasing social awareness at community level. We then pointed out the shortcomings in different regions and sectors. Based on these analyses, we proposed five recommendations to help China improving its climate policy strategies, which include: 1) restructuring the economy to balance short-term and long-term conflicts; 2) developing circular economy with recycling mechanism and infrastructure; 3) building up unified national standards and more accurate indicators; 4) completing market mechanism for green economy and encouraging green consumption; and 5) enhancing technology innovations and local incentives via bottom-up actions.

The Critical Role of Policy Enforcement in Achieving Health, Air Quality, and Climate Benefits from India's Clean Electricity Transition.

The coal-dominated electricity system poses major challenges for India to tackle air pollution and climate change. Although the government has issued a series of clean air policies and low-carbon energy targets, a key barrier remains enforcement. Here, we quantify the importance of policy implementation in India's electricity sector using an integrated assessment method based on emissions scenarios, air quality simulations, and health impact assessments. We find that limited enforcement of air pollution control policies leads to worse future air quality and health damages (e.g., 14 200 to 59 000 more PM2.5-related deaths in 2040) than when energy policies are not fully enforced (5900 to 8700 more PM2.5-related deaths in 2040), since coal power plants with end-of-pipe controls already emit little air pollution. However, substantially more carbon dioxide will be emitted if low-carbon and clean coal policies are not successfully implemented (e.g., 400 to 800 million tons more CO2 in 2040). Thus, our results underscore the important role of effectively implementing existing air pollution and energy policy to simultaneously achieve air pollution, health, and carbon mitigation goals in India.

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO2 mitigation in road transport

Transport CO2 emissions continue to grow globally despite advances in low-carbon technology and goal setting by numerous governments. In this Perspective, we summarize available evidence for the effectiveness of climate policies and policy mixes for road transport relative to 2030 and 2050 mitigation goals implied by the Paris Agreement. Current policy mixes in most countries are not nearly stringent enough. We argue that most regions need a stronger, more integrated policy mix led by stringent regulations and complemented by pricing mechanisms as well as other efforts to reduce vehicle travel.

Bridging the gap between circular economy and climate change mitigation policies through eco-innovations and Quintuple Helix Model

Climate change represents an increasing threat to society and demands collaborative actions for changing technologies, production methods, and consumption. The concept of Circular Economy (CE) emerged aiming to increase the resource use efficiency and minimize resource inputs, waste and emissions generation. However, the contribution of CE eco-innovations to climate change mitigation goals, pushed by the Quintuple Helix Model (QHM) actors, is still unknown. This analytical review intends to fulfil this gap by investigating the main elements of the QHM that contribute to CE eco-innovations, namely companies, government, society, academia, and the natural environment. An analytical framework and theoretical propositions for future research are proposed. Eco-innovation technologies from energy, waste, transportation, construction and manufacturing sectors are discussed. Practical recommendations and implications for policymakers associated with CE and climate change policies and their interrelationship in terms of eco-innovations are also provided.

Agricultural sustainability assessment framework integrating sustainable development goals and interlinked priorities of environmental, climate and agriculture policies

AbstractThe agricultural sustainability issues are widely addressed in scientific literature and various reports by international organizations. However, there is lack of harmonized approach in addressing agricultural sustainability issues as different policies are targeting different sustainability issues in agriculture. This article analyses sustainable agriculture development and agriculture sustainability concepts and sustainability assessment approaches and tools developed for agriculture sector. Based on systematic critical literature review, this article develops the new indicators framework for sustainability assessment in agriculture which allows us to achieve harmonization of sustainable development, climate and agricultural policies in European Union (EU). The proposed indicators framework allows us to address the main sustainability issues of agriculture by linking them with sustainable development goals, environmental, climate and rural development policy priorities in EU. The main contribution of this article is linking rural policy goals with sustainable development, climate change mitigation and environmental policy goals by providing agricultural sustainability assessment framework allowing us to track these linkages through indicators system.

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

Abstract. It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by -2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and -4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

An ecological macroeconomics model: The energy transition in the EU

The Energy Roadmap 2050 (ER2050) is committed to achieve the European Union's emissions mitigation goals by reducing energy use and a transition to renewables. The macroeconomic impacts of the Ref16 and ‘EUCO’ scenarios of this strategy have been reported to entail an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and energy use. The aim of this paper is assessing the ER2050 targets with a novel modelling methodology based on Post-Keynesian Economics, i.e. demand-led economic growth and Ecological Economics, i.e. taking into account absolute biophysical (energy availability) constrains to economic growth. Thus, this article presents the Economy module of the Integrated Assessment Model MEDEAS-Europe, combining System Dynamics and Input-Output analysis, and evaluates the ER2050 targets under different scenarios regarding primary income distribution, foreign trade, labour productivity, industrial policy and working time reduction. Our results show that GDP growth and employment creation may be halted due to energy scarcity if the ER2050 targets are met even considering great energy efficiency gains. In addition, the renewables share would increase enough to reduce the energy imports dependency, but not sufficiently to meet the emissions targets. Only a Post-Growth scenario would be able to meet the climate goals and maintain the level of employment.

COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Can We Now Go Further?

This paper examines the implications of the COVID-19 crisis on the 2030 EU CO2 emissions target, considering a range of economic growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, we find that existing climate policy measures could overshoot the current 40% EU target in 2030. If policymakers consequently relax climate policy measures to maintain the 2030 target, the opportunity will be missed to align EU climate policy with longer-term Paris emissions mitigation goals. Our analysis highlights that although existing climate policy measures will likely reduce emissions more than 40% by 2030 in the wake of the pandemic, they will not be enough to meet the Paris agreement. More stringent measures, such as those proposed under the Green New Deal, will still be needed and may be less costly than previously estimated.

Mobilising private climate finance for sustainable energy access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT Ensuring access to sustainable energy is equally relevant for both sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Mobilising private finance in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries will, in turn, be of crucial importance for achieving both Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 – which calls for universal energy access – and climate change mitigation goals defined under the Paris Agreement. In this paper, we assess how UNFCCC-backed climate finance instruments have engaged private investment for energy-focused climate mitigation in SSA. Based on this assessment, we develop recommendations for public climate finance institutions. Our work builds on documentary and database analysis and interviews, as well as participatory methodologies applied at a stakeholder workshop conducted in Kampala, Uganda, in 2018. Three case studies from Ethiopia, Madagascar and South Africa illustrate how climate finance interacts with domestic policy instruments, including in relation to the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism, South Africa’s domestic renewable energy auctions, and the Green Climate Fund. The paper finds that there is no ‘catch all’ success model and approaches need to be tailored to local circumstances. Key policy insights International market mechanisms and climate finance can be key catalysts for private multibillion-dollar investment in energy access and climate mitigation, even under the challenging conditions facing many SSA nations. Market mechanisms need to be managed well to provide the private sector with the certainty needed to commit to fresh investments. A programmatic approach with standardised baseline and monitoring methodologies should be anchored in the next generation of project-based market mechanisms under Paris Agreement Article 6. Linking international and regional development programmes with the international carbon market might be an option for closing financing gaps, while at the same time increasing synergies between climate goals and SDGs.

The Role of Renewable Energies for the Sustainable Energy Governance and Environmental Policies for the Mitigation of Climate Change in Ecuador

This article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO2 by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy planning with a greater participation of renewable energies would forecast a CO2 emission of 41,232.30 KT, that is, a reduction of 31.5% in emissions.

Communicating sentiment and outlook reverses inaction against collective risks

Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one's own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.