Abstract
Knowledge on the determinants of more or less ambitious climate policies on the country level is still limited, especially with regards to the 2015 Paris Agreement to mitigate global climate change. This is a significant knowledge gap, especially given the review of many contributions to the Paris Agreement due in 2021. I analyse why some countries make insufficient pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, while other countries pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation goals. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the study finds that economic recession, dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation, and levels of development are strong predictors of insufficient climate policies. These results are worrisome in the context of the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the continued predominance of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix.
Highlights
Anthropogenic climate change is among the most important global governance challenges of our time
Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the study finds that economic recession, dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation, and levels of development are strong predictors of insufficient climate policies
These results are worrisome in the context of the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the continued predominance of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix
Summary
Anthropogenic climate change is among the most important global governance challenges of our time. There is considerable research on international climate regimes [3, 4] as well as on the drivers of high CO2 emissions on the country level. Work on the environmental Kuznets curve, for instance, argues that countries with a medium level of economic development have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Other country characteristics like high levels of democracy and membership in international organisations are established predictors of lower CO2 emissions [7, 8]. Research on country-specific drivers of climate policies (rather than policy outcomes like CO2 emissions) is still sparse. There are several notable exceptions, highlighting the role of climate change vulnerability, selective incentives set by international partners, levels of democracy, and national identities as determinants of ambitious climate policies [9–11]
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