Global Trade Volume Research Articles

The Value of Trading Volume in FX: A Trader's Advantage?

Not long ago, decentralization of the FX market hindered real time access to global trade volumes. Things have changed…

Standard operating procedure for loading/unloading operations and navigational safety of bulk carriers as per charter party requirements

According to the Review of Maritime Transport published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in 2018, 53.57% of total global seaborne trade volume was transported by bulk carriers in 2017. Bulk cargo shipment is one of the major modes of transportation in the international trade. Many bulk carrier marine accidents each year are caused by inappropriate cargo loading/unloading operation procedures. Therefore, the main purpose of this article is to establish a standard operating procedure for cargo handling and navigational safety management guidelines for bulk carriers. The standard operating procedure proposed in this article is developed based on loading/unloading theories, international rules and regulations, case studies, a literature review, expert opinions, and practical experience from some captains, as well as the author who has worked as a bulk carrier captain for more than 20 years. The developed standard operating procedure can be offered to bulk carrier captains, ship owners and charterers, and ship safety management companies for improving navigational safety and avoiding cargo damage.

A YOLOv3-based non-helmet-use detection for seafarer safety aboard merchant ships

International shipping industry undertaking more than 80% global trade volume, is indispensable to the world’s economy and development. Seafarers, which are an important part of shipping, mainly engage in safe navigation and good maintenance of ships. However, they are prone to expose themselves to occupational accidents and injuries, especially fatal trauma on the head due to non-helmet-use behaviour. Wearing a safety helmet can effectively reduce the risks resulting in head injuries. Despite the vital role of safety helmet, many seafarers tend to take off their helmet because of discomfort caused by weight and high temperature in engine room or deck. To improve the ship’s safe operation and prevent the loss of life at sea, this paper proposed a state-of-the-art method based on YOLOv3 model for automatic and real-time detection of non-helmet-use behaviour. The experimental results showed that the detection method can run real-time under ship’s video surveillance and precisely detect the non-helmet-use behaviour with low miss rate.

WTO 체재 개혁과 한국의 다자통상정책 방향 (Reshaping the Multilateral Trade Policy for Korea)

WTO 체재 개혁과 한국의 다자통상정책 방향 (Reshaping the Multilateral Trade Policy for Korea)

Prospects and Risks of the Development of Japanese Cryptocurrency (monacoin)

In this article, the prospects and risks of the development of the Japanese cryptocurrencies are discussed. Japan has the most progressive regulating climate in the world for cryptocurrencies. The land of the rising sun is the homeland of a large base of investors of cryptocurrency and users. In 2018 Japan was the second or third largest economy in the world for bitcoin. Averages of the Japanese yen of 11 per cent of the global trading volume for BTC, keeping it a nostril in a nostril with South Korean won for global trade domination after the USA dollar. For the country only 127 million people of 11 per cent of the global trading volume — influence is more than usual size per capita on the crypto industry.

Can Blockchain Technology Facilitate International Trade?

This study considers the potential role for blockchain technologies in international trade, specifically how such technologies might affect trade finance, customs procedures, and provenance (origin) of goods. For trade finance, blockchain could reduce the expense and time required to facilitate trade that depends on third-party lending or insurance. For customs procedures, blockchain could reduce costs, expedite customs procedures, and boost both global trade volumes and economic output more than the worldwide elimination of tariffs. For provenance, blockchain could improve management of supply chains by providing real-time information on the origin and movement of goods. Blockchain may also be used to improve detection of illicit trade flows and deter illegitimate efforts to circumvent trade rules. Such applications could aid customs and law enforcement in facilitating the flow of legitimate trade. Numerous efforts are underway to explore the benefits of blockchain as well as how to mitigate its risks for international commerce.

Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system

US trade policy in the Trump administration is protectionist, raising tariffs outside of WTO rules, threatening trade wars, withdrawing from existing trade agreements, and negotiating new bilateral trade deals rather than free trade agreements. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the WTO rules-based trading system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze changes in trade and production patterns for a variety of scenarios, including US trade wars. We find that adjustment to US disengagement is feasible—the changes in trade shares as countries divert trade are modest and achievable, with very little impact on the volume of global trade. If the US engages in trade wars with major partners, the best response for other trade partners is to sit out the trade war, accept higher US tariffs, and gain markets from global trade diversion around the US. Finally, because of indirect effects, widespread tariffs fail to benefit the protected sectors—a fallacy of composition in a protectionist trade policy.

Global socio-hydrology: An overview of virtual water use by the world economy from source of exploitation to sink of final consumption

To reflect a key aspect of global socio-hydrology, this paper explores global virtual water use from source of exploitation to sink of final consumption via interregional trades within the world economy as reflected by world input-output database for 2014. An embodiment accounting model is developed, which takes full account of virtual water feedbacks related to primary inputs. Global total trade volume of virtual water is estimated to be in magnitude around 30% of the global direct freshwater withdrawal. Moreover, it is revealed that global virtual water transfer in intermediate trade is in magnitude around 1.4 times that in final trade. In intermediate trade of virtual water, China, Japan and the United Kingdom turn out to be the three leading net importers, while India, Russia and the United States are revealed as the leading net exporters. In final trade of virtual water, the United States, Japan and Russia are the major net importers, in contrast to China, India and Mexico as the leading net exporters. Trade connections and imbalances of major economies in terms of virtual water are quantified and analyzed. Two new indicators in terms of water self-sufficiency rate by source and that by sink are devised. It is found that around 40% of the use of China’s freshwater withdrawal finally sinks into foreign economies while only 20% of China’s virtual water use originates from other regions. With regard to Germany, Canada and France, they behave like active pumps driving vast virtual water inflows and outflows, demonstrating their high involvement in the global supply chain in terms of virtual water. With the increasingly frequent virtual water transfer within the world economy, nations and regions ought to assess their behaviors in intermediate and final trades of virtual water for sustainable use of freshwater resources.

State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment

AbstractUncertainty about economic policy in Australia and the United States has increased episodically since the Global Financial Crisis. Existing research focuses on the effects on economic activity, employment and investment. I extend this work to examine the effect of policy uncertainty on global trade volumes, industrial production and cross‐border trade and investment for Australia and the United States. Australia's relative resilience to policy uncertainty shocks reflects a larger role for the exchange rate in intermediating foreign shocks and the absence of a recession in Australia during the sample period considered.

Service Patterns and Management Initiatives in Newly Emerging Economies of the World

There was a significant change in the direction of the economy as a whole beginning around the year 2000 and lasting for the next two decades. Total GDP in emerging markets has overtaken that of developed nations during the last several years, with “Emerging Asia and, in particular, China and India, at the vanguard. Developing markets have also witnessed unprecedented growth in trade and investment, with their share in global trade volume rising from 32% in 2000, to 46% in 2019. Also, in 2000, emerging economies attracted only 15% of FDI; this proportion has increased to 46% in 2019. The majority of the world's annual GDP growth has come from this area thus far. Economic downturns have hit all regions as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, with far-reaching impacts on society and the economy.” There are signs of economic revival, but they will not materialise until the vaccines are produced and utilised as planned. When it comes to the global economic recovery, China and other Rising Asian countries are among the frontrunners. Yet, doubt remains because of the erratic speed and limited extent of vaccine rollouts, as well as the persistent emergence of dangerous new virus types.

Review in Ballast Water Treatment Regarding Methods of Treatment, Volume, Time and Corrosion of the Tank

Nowadays over 80% of global trade volume is transported by ships. The ballast water is used in all voyages, at least half of each every journey is undertaken with additional water aboard to compensate for the absence of cargo. Ballast water contains a variety of organism including bacteria and viruses and the adult and larval stages of the many marine and coastal plants and animal. Whilst the vast majority of such organisms will not survive to the point when the ballast is discharged, some may survive and arrive in their new environment. They can have a serious ecological, economic and public health impact on the receiving environment. Ballast water treatment maintaining the ecosystem of the oceans, so we must the best individual and adequate method of treatment, after ship type and service. We will also add data from Ansys software regarding the ballast free concept.

Participatory Operational & Security Assessment on homeland security risks: an empirical research method for improving security beyond the borders through public/private partnerships

This paper proposes novel applications of Participatory Operational Assessment (POA), as a qualitative/empirical tool for bridging the research gap in our knowledge of Border Security, while supporting the mission of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security “to build in security, to ensure resilience, and to facilitate customs and exchange” (DHS 2017). Each year, global trade volume exceeds 10.3 billion tons of cargo, 90% of which is being carried by ships (UNCTAD 2017). U.S. transport networks alone import and export at least two billion metric tons of cargo, including 15 million sealed containers (CBP 2017a). The task of DHS/CBP in safeguarding the national borders and intermodal (sea, land & air) security becomes more crucial each year, as the flow of goods grows exponentially in positive correlation with the population growth, and trade agreements, such as the NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. This paper demonstrates the development of a “Participatory Operational Assessment” instrument, where homeland security officials and industry stakeholders form a think-tank for resolving security and operational challenges on both sides of the border. Specifically, this scholarly research funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security demonstrates the benefits of establishing a Public/Private Advisory Board in order to identify security threats on both sides of the border. This is a timely research, as border security risks impose serious threats for homeland security, with geopolitical, economic and trade hindrances. The DHS and its Agencies (CBP, USCG, TSA etc.) have introduced numerous noteworthy initiatives, platforms and programs, including CSI, C-TPAT, TWIC etc. A number of working groups are also affiliated with the DHS, in order to address security, trade and travel issues. Inspired by the capabilities of these initiatives, this research has created a project-specific team of experts aiming to evaluate quantitative findings on border security, and offer best industry practices.

Slimy invasion: Climatic niche and current and future biogeography of Arion slug invaders

AbstractAimThe current volume of global trade has led to an unprecedented rate of biological invasions, causing severe problems to native ecosystems. The knowledge of species introduction routes and areas suitable for establishment is therefore an important step in preventing future invasions. The situation can be further exacerbated by climate change, which might alter the amount of environmentally suitable areas for establishment of invasive species. Here, we focus on three Arion slug species recently introduced to North America and Australia with potentially significant impact—A. ater, A. rufus and A. vulgaris.LocationWorldwide.ResultsWe combined interception records, molecular analyses and species distribution modelling to assess their introduction history and to predict which regions are at highest risk of future invasions. We found extensive sharing of mitochondrial haplotypes among continents in all three species. In concordance with the genetic analyses, interception records suggest that slugs were introduced to the USA and Australia primarily from France, the Netherlands and the UK, but also from other locations in North America. The models predicted climatically suitable regions for the three Arion species in several areas across the globe for which management actions can be targeted.Main conclusionsWhile the amount of regions with climatic conditions that would be suitable for slug establishment is predicted to slightly decrease under future scenarios, new suitable areas will also emerge. We therefore recommend that prevention efforts to limit new introductions should continue in order to protect vulnerable native ecosystems.

The detection and significance of emerging insecticide resistance in mosquitoes

Mosquito-borne arboviruses are increasing in incidence around the world. Australia enjoys some protection from pests and diseases afforded by its geographic isolation coupled with strict biosecurity control at its borders. However, as the volume of global trade, travel and transport expands, risk of exotic incursions to Australia is increasing. Detection of foreign mosquitoes at airports and seaports around Australia is becoming commonplace. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, which has expanded its range throughout Europe and the Americas1, has not become established in mainland Australia, but is encountered as an exotic incursion2. The yellow fever mosquito and dengue vector, Aedes. aegypti, occurs naturally in northern Queensland, but is also captured at Australia’s ports on a recurrent basis as an incursion from overseas3. Although Ae. aegypti is established in Australia, its detection as an incursion is still cause for concern. Apart from the possibility that invasive mosquitoes will carry exotic arboviruses, genetic characteristics of a foreign insect population can be very different from those observed in local mosquitoes, particularly in terms of insecticide resistance. Our recent research has shown that invading mosquitoes from overseas carry insecticide resistance alleles not found in Australia4 and our development of a global genomic database is helping us to pinpoint their source.

Micro formed holographic security features in steel

Counterfeiting, with a global trade volume of approximately 450 billion euro a year compromises business results of companies in all industrial segments. At worst, product plagiarism causes severe damages to the individual brand reputation due to product defects or liability issues. Therefore, product integration of inseparable and unique security features is essential for a preserving market share in all manufacturing branches. This paper presents a novel approach regarding a replication technology for the manufacturing of holographic security features. Using a microstructured aluminium substrate with holographic properties as a base material, a forming die is manufactured by a combination of physical vapour deposition (PVD) and galvanic coating processes. Furthermore, a process adapted hardness progression between individual layers was created. By the use of this die, the forming of a holographic microstructure into high strength aluminium alloy (3.3547) and spring steel (1.1248) could be demonstrated within a preliminary study.

Trade Openness, Inequality and Poverty in Latin American Countries

Globalization has quickened, especially during the past three decades, due to technological, institutional, legal and political developments in the world. During this process, many countries reduced or removed the barriers on the cross-country flows of goods, services and capital, and the global trade volume increased substantially. Therefore, openness-oriented policies have led many social and economic implications for the national economies. In this regard, this study investigates the interaction among trade openness, poverty alleviation and inequality in 11 Latin American countries by employing a panel data analysis. We revealed that trade openness and financial development affected inequality and poverty negatively in the long term, while inequality affected poverty positively.

Financial regulations and price inconsistencies across Bitcoin markets

We document significant differences in Bitcoin prices across 11 different markets representing 26% of global Bitcoin trade volume. These differences must — due to the identical nature of all bitcoin— result from characteristics of markets themselves. We examine differences across the markets and find that those which do not require customer identification for establishing an account are more likely to deviate from representative market prices than those which do, but we cannot identify an element to predict the timing or the size of the deviation. This implies that standard financial regulations, specifically know-your-customer regulations, can have a non-negligible impact on the market for Bitcoin. This finding also implies that bitcoin price data can differ across exchanges demanding a careful approach to data sourcing.

Global Trade and the Dollar

We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Global growth picking up at the end of the year We have lifted our world GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017 by 0.1 percentage points, to 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. And we have raised our 2018 world growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.9%, mainly on the back of a significant upgrade to our US outlook. Global indicators point to a pick‐up in activity in Q4. The global manufacturing PMI rose to a 27‐month high in November, while the composite index – which includes services – was at its highest level for a year. Indicators of international trade continue to paint a mixed picture. Global trade volumes declined slightly over the previous month in September but that came after a strong gain in August, and it looks like the trough in the world trade cycle has been passed. We expect a gradual strengthening in world trade over the next couple of years provided president‐elect Trump do not follow through on his protectionist threats. Trade should be underpinned by stronger growth in the US: we have lifted our 2017–18 growth forecasts to 2.3% and 2.5% respectively (from 2% and 1.9%). Our more bullish stance is driven by the anticipated effects of president‐elect Trump's expansive fiscal policies and his less protectionist tone. Tax cuts and business deregulation could also unleash investors' ‘animal spirits’, helping offset the effects from a stronger dollar and heightened policy uncertainty. Stronger growth means that, in addition to a nearcertain hike in December, we now see the Fed raising interest rates twice in 2017 and three times in 2018. This, in turn, is reflected in a steeper yield curve for government bonds than previously expected. This will also pose higher risks for emerging markets that remain exposed to capital outflows and are vulnerable given their stock of US$ denominated debt. Countries with large current account deficits such as Turkey and South Africa are likely to be most affected Economic activity in the Eurozone remains resilient to the shocks of recent months. Following the ECB's announcement of an extension of its QE programme and increasing divergence between monetary policies compared to the US, we now see the euro falling to parity against the US dollar by the end of 2017.

English

Worldwide, the dairy sector is one of the fastest growing productive sectors. The global sector growth in the decade 2011 to 2020 is projected to be higher than that experienced in 2000 to 2010, mainly due to expected robust growth in developing countries. Global milk production in 2014 stood at about 800 million metric tons. India is the global leader in milk production accounting for 16% of output, with the USA coming second with 14.6% of global production, while Africa produces less than 10% of global output. Sub-Saharan Africa commands 0.2% of the global trade volume in the dairy sector. Egypt is the African Continental leader in milk output, as Africa remains the largest importer of milk powders, butter and ghee. The shortfalls in demand show potential investment opportunities and growth areas in the sector. The East African output of butter and ghee stands at about 15% of the African output of these products. Kenya and Uganda produce considerable amounts of processed dairy products, although, the milk processed rarely exceeds 12 to 15% of domestic milk supply, with most milk production being consumed at farm level. Tanzania produces more butter and ghee than other East African Community (EAC) members with Burundi been the least. Although, informal marketing channels, offering cheaper fresh milk are attractive, increasing decentralization of regulatory services, growing effectiveness of law enforcement and consumer awareness of the healthfulness of processed milk, will continue to reduce informal marketing of unprocessed fresh milk in EAC countries. Despite the quest for global export, the unmet domestic dairy products demand in EAC member states may slow entry into global markets. To meet the numerous requirements in export markets requires cautious, planned and systematic forays over time. Key words: East Africa, dairy value chains, processing, marketing, opportunities, challenges.