Global Trade Volume Research Articles

Air cargo transport and economic development in emerging economies: A case study of Brazil with panel data analysis

Air cargo transportation accounts for less than 1% of the global trade volume, yet it represents approximately 35% of the total value of goods transported, highlighting its strategic importance in trade and economic development. This study investigates the relationship between domestic air cargo transport in Brazil and key macroeconomic variables, focusing on how regional economic dynamism, logistical infrastructure, and population density impact the country’s development. Using a panel data regression model covering the period from 2000 to 2020, the study analyzes the evolution of air cargo transportation and its role in redistributing economic growth across Brazil’s regions. The findings emphasize the key factors influencing the air cargo sector and demonstrate how these factors can be leveraged to optimize public policies and business strategies. This research provides valuable insights into the relevance of air cargo transportation for regional and national development, particularly in emerging economies like Brazil, offering guidance for the formulation of strategies that promote balanced economic growth across regions.

Impact Of International Trade On Regional Economic Growth

This study aims to analyze the impact of international trade on regional economic growth through literature studies. International trade is one of the main drivers of economic growth in the era of globalization. Despite a significant increase in the volume of global trade, the distribution of benefits is not always evenly distributed across regions. Some regions with adequate infrastructure access and supportive economic policies experience rapid economic growth, while other less developed regions face limitations in taking advantage of international trade opportunities. This study shows that international trade contributes significantly to increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), investment, and job creation, although these impacts depend on the readiness of infrastructure and the competitiveness of each region. Factors such as government policies and access to global markets also play a role in influencing the benefits obtained. This study recommends policies for infrastructure development and strengthening the competitiveness of local products to ensure that all regions can feel the optimal benefits of international trade. The results of this study provide direction for the government in formulating policies that encourage inclusive and sustainable economic growth at the regional level.

ONLINE STORE AS A COMPONENT OF E-COMMERCE AND DIGITAL BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION

This article examines the issue of managing an organization in the context of digital business transformation. The process of searching and optimizing methods and tools of digital transformation is relevant, this is especially evident in the field of e-commerce. In the article, the authors provide an overview of the e-commerce market, its leaders are highlighted. Based on the analysis of the structure and features of the development of global and national e-commerce markets, three categories are identified: 'large and mature', 'catching up' and 'waiting markets'. The dynamics of the global e-retail trade volume and the dynamics of sales volume of the Russian e-commerce market are considered. The concept of 'e-commerce' is clarified, the positive and negative sides of the development of e-commerce are highlighted. Depending on the types of subjects initiating interaction, the types of information and economic interaction or types of e-commerce are fixed. The article notes that information and communication technologies (ICTs) contribute to the organization and optimization of a number of business processes that are the basis of e-commerce: electronic data exchange, e-commerce and marketing, the formation of information and analytical systems of the organization. The authors emphasize that from the point of view of marketing, one of the most interesting components of e-commerce, its trading platform is online stores. The definition of the concept of 'online store' is given. By analyzing the entire variety of online stores represented in the modern business space, the authors classify them according to the methodology of doing business and the type of platform, by the type of organization of sales and trading activities, by product range and type of relationships with suppliers. The proposed classification allows you to: identify the entire range of online stores; streamline these tools; facilitate the search and justification of the choice of optimal methods of digital business transformation.

Assessing the impact of hydrogen trade towards low-carbon energy transition

Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a pivotal commodity in the low-carbon energy transition, bridging regional disparities in hydrogen production capacity and facilitating international energy trade. Existing research has yet to delve into the impact of global hydrogen trade on energy transitions, as well as the key factors driving the development of hydrogen trade. This study, utilizing the updated GCAM-TU model, which mainly extends the original Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a hydrogen trade module, provides a multi-scenario outlook on the characteristics of hydrogen trade and its impact on global and regional energy transition. The findings indicate that by 2050, the global hydrogen trade volume is expected to reach 9-19EJ, accounting for a quarter of the global hydrogen consumption in different scenarios, with green hydrogen trade dominating due to its cost advantages. Pipeline hydrogen and ammonia shipping will govern the trade market, representing 33%–61% and 24%–64% of trade volume, respectively, while liquid hydrogen shipping holds an advantage for medium distances. Hydrogen trade is projected to increase global hydrogen demand by 1.2–5.3EJ and reduce hydrogen prices by 11%–36% in the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, thereby expanding their hydrogen consumption by 8%–55% and reducing regional carbon prices by 1%–6%. Moreover, hydrogen trade significantly alters the regional distribution of global hydrogen production, with major exporting regions such as North and East Africa increasing their hydrogen production for export by up to 150%. To facilitate the development of hydrogen and hydrogen trade, it is crucial for potential importing and exporting regions to enhance global financial and technological cooperation, develop key hydrogen production and transportation technologies, and retrofit existing nature gas infrastructure to reduce costs. Additionally, forming stable trade partnerships is essential for maintaining energy security in the hydrogen trade.

Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships Using Three Objectives Path Planning Based on Meteorological Data

In recent years, global trade volume has been increasing, and marine transportation plays a significant role here. In marine transportation, the choice of transportation route has been widely discussed. Minimizing fuel consumption, minimizing voyage time, and maximizing voyage security are concerns of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) regarding Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). These goals are contradictory and have not yet been effectively resolved. This paper describes the ship path-planning problem as a multi-objective optimization problem that considers fuel consumption, voyage time, and voyage security. The model considers wind and waves as marine environmental factors. Furthermore, this paper uses an improved Whale Optimization Algorithm to solve multi-objective problems. At the same time, it is compared to three advanced algorithms. Through seven three-objective test functions, the performance of the algorithm is tested and applied in path planning. The results indicate that the algorithm can effectively balance the fuel consumption, voyage time, and voyage security of the ship, offering reasonable paths.

Study of global illegal wildlife trade volume based on social network analysis and ARIMA model

Study of global illegal wildlife trade volume based on social network analysis and ARIMA model

Revealing the evolution of global energy trade patterns amidst the COVID-19 epicenter storm

As the driving force of modern economic development, the evolution of the global energy patterns during major emergencies deserves attention. This study aims to uncover changes in global energy patterns during the COVID-19 epicenter storm. The results reveal concentrated energy trade volume in a few flows, with high-income countries holding greater influence. Amid the epicenter storm, there was a contraction in global energy trade volume, and trading patterns underwent significant shifts: (1) the global natural gas trading center shifted from the Middle East to western Africa initially, then to the United States and Russia; (2) Brazil, a crucial crude oil exporter, saw a weakened position in global crude oil exports; and (3) in the coal trading network, Australia and Russia maintained their position as trading centers throughout the storm. Swift policy adaptation is crucial for resilience and stability amid evolving global energy patterns.

Estimating the impact of container port throughput on employment: an analysis for African countries with seaports

Ports play a significant role in facilitating international trade and economic development, serving as vital gateways for the movement of goods across the continent and beyond. As global trade volumes continue to rise, efficient port operations hold the potential to not only enhance economic growth but also contribute significantly to job creation across various sectors of the economy. This paper examines the impact of container port throughput on employment in Africa and further tests whether causality runs from employment to container port throughput. To do so, we use a sample of 27 African countries with seaport and data spanning the period from 2010 to 2020 for the analysis. The system- Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimation technique is used as the estimation strategy. We use service, industrial, and total employment percentages of the total population as proxies for employment while annual container throughput measured in Twenty foots Equivalent Units (TEUs) is used as an indicator for port throughput. Based on the empirical results, we establish a positive significant effect of port throughput on employment in Africa. We further show that bidirectional causality exists between port throughput and employment in Africa. Following these findings, we recommend policies that increase port throughput in Africa.

The potential for cascading failures in the international trade network.

In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region's actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

Identifying Company Selection Criteria applied by Maritime Transportation Engineering Students for Career Planning

Increasing global trade volumes require more and more seafarers to be employed on ships. The reports by international organizations and institutions frequently indicate a shortage of onboard officers, as well as that this deficit will keep increasing gradually. Given all these international reports, businesses need to adopt strategies that will make seafaring more attractive to avoid future issues with the employment of competent seafarers. Such strategies would give them competitive advantage by attracting qualified officers to their ranks. This study aims to determine which criteria officers consider when choosing their future employers and the weight they attribute to individual criteria in making such decisions. The criteria were identified by brainstorming of study subjects (n=8) using the focus group method. The weight ratio of the criteria obtained through focus group and Delphi study results was calculated using the fuzzy AHP (FAHP) method (n=32), and the relevance of individual criteria for the selection decision determined. As a result of the research, 18 sub-criteria have been identified under the main criteria of "Operational factors", "Living conditions onboard", "Personal benefits" and "Personnel management policies" and their weight on the selection decision determined. The study contributed to the literature on identifying company selection criteria for officers. These criteria give businesses and international organizations a scientific perspective that will assist them in identifying new policies that will ensure the sustainability of the maritime profession and the employment of seafarers.

The Emergence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and its Impact on International Trade

Trade as we know it will change. This is because the fourth industrial revolution—a period of rapid digital technological advancement—is beginning to impact the world. Coined in Germany as Industry 4.0, despite its name, this revolution is a process of emerging technologies established on older ones. Industry 4.0 represents the fusion of primarily digital developing technologies. This article examines the effects of Industry 4.0 and its revolutionary changes on the volume and nature of global trade, and identifies its quantitative, structural, and comparative impacts on countries and corporations using qualitative methods.. Implementing the core developments of Industry 4.0 will significantly change international trade volume and structure. There will be a significant shift toward services. The goods to gain prominence due to digitalization will mainly be those with high transportation, logistics, data, legislation, and transaction costs. Applying new technologies will also significantly alter the terms of trade. Keywords: Industrial revolution 4.0, International trade, Digital technology

Big Data Analysis and Decision Making Optimization in International Relations Supported by Constructivist Theory

Abstract With the peaceful end of the Cold War and the deepening development of economic globalization, the traditional international relations theory is in trouble, and constructivism comes into being amidst people’s reflections on neorealism and neoliberalism. This paper proposes an optimization method for decision-making in international relations, guided by the constructivist international relations theory system. Big data is used to analyze the decision-making opinions of experts in international relations processing and to fuse complex relationships, and then the dual-consensus feedback mechanism is used to calculate the comprehensive score of each international relations decision-making scheme to obtain the optimal decision-making scheme in international relations. The analysis finds that the solution obtained using the method proposed in this paper is better than the solution obtained using the JIA method and can provide the optimal decision-making solution for processing international relations. In the simulation case, after optimizing its decision-making in international relations, country T actively engages in economic and trade exchanges with country M and jointly establishes several economic cooperation frameworks. The export trade volume of country T to country M increased by about three times from 2016 to 2023, and the total global trade volume of country T doubled by nearly five times (481.97%). The paper’s impact can be seen in the establishment of relatively stable international relations and the realization of the practice of friendly interaction between state subjects.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis

Natural gas is considered a transitional energy source in the transition to clean energy owing to its clean, efficient, and ecologically beneficial properties. The trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG) serves as the backbone of the global natural gas trade and significantly influences the dynamics of the global energy trade system. This paper constructs long-term global LNG trade networks, and explores the spatiotemporal evolution and topological structures of the international LNG trade by utilizing multilevel network analysis methods, to provide insights for comprehensively understanding the market dynamics of the global LNG trade system. The findings indicate the following: (1) The global LNG trade volume shows an overall upward trend, and the global LNG trade network exhibits uneven spatial distribution, clear hierarchical differentiation, and an increasingly complicated structure. Global LNG trade is gradually changing from regionalization to globalization, and the international LNG market is undergoing structural reshaping. (2) The global LNG trade network continues to expand in size and density, and the rapidly growing LNG supply and trade relations are driving the formation of the global natural gas market. (3) Global LNG trade is still in a phase of rapid change, with the global efficiency of the network increasing and then decreasing. The trade network has traditionally been centered on ten countries, including Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Qatar. (4) The global LNG trade network exhibits clear core-periphery structures with considerable polarization effects, and the trade network structure is continuously evolving and is growing unbalanced. Finally, we put forward relevant policy suggestions to promote global LNG trade interconnectivity and enhance environmental protection and respond to global climate change.

THE WORLD IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

The paper provides an analysis of the current state of the world economy and a short-term forecast of its development. It is shown that the USA and the EU have become the epicenter of a new financial and economic crisis and today their economies are already in a state of stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low growth rates. The tightening of monetary policy, through aggressive increases in key interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, to curb inflation and reduce it to the target level of 2% per annum, led to a sharp reduction in investment in the economy, which, in turn, will cause recessions in 2024 with a recession depth of 1.2–1.4% in the US economy and 1.9–2.1% in the EU economy. Vanguard developing countries will only slow down slightly, and their leaders, China and India, will maintain high rates of economic growth at 4.5 and 6% per year, respectively, in the medium term. The crisis will lead to a cascade of defaults among heavily indebted, low-income developing countries. As a result, the crisis will also engulf the global economy, significantly reducing its growth rate from 5.2% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2024, with a sharp decline in global trade volumes. Recommendations are given that can contribute to a quick and successful exit from the current crisis.

Why Has Trade Barely Moved Sub-Saharan Africa to Its Economic Potential?

The rise in global trade volumes since the early 90s has been welcomed by many under the notion that trade helps countries edge closer to their economic potential. A concerning observation, however, is that while Asia, Latin America, and Europe seem to have witnessed a discernible rise in per capita income during this period and moved closer to their economic potential, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) does not seem to have recorded as much success. Defining economic potential as maximum possible income from given resources and existing technology, the results presented here for a panel of 22 sub-Saharan countries observed between 1995 and 2021 confirm that the region’s ability to edge closer to its full potential was heavily undermined by its small and shrinking manufacturing sector, a result that is replicated by counterfactual methods. In policy senses against this background, SSA may need to reconsider its widespread deindustrialization model and rejuvenate manufacturing. This policy implication feeds into the broader discussion of premature deindustrialization in SSA and its economic consequences. Evidence suggests that reversing this trend through expanding manufacturing potentially lifts about 50% of the sampled countries (including Rwanda, Togo, Guinea, Niger, Sierra-Leone, Gambia, Benin, Uganda, and Mozambique) from low-income status to middle-income status.

Green development of the maritime industry: Overview, perspectives, and future research opportunities

Maritime industry is the artery of the global economy since it carries around 90% of the volume of global trade. However, the fierce environmental problems associated with human activities and economic development cannot be neglected. To systematically analyze the research status and development trend of the maritime industry, this paper collects and reviews literature from Elsevier ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar databases related to green shipping management and green port construction. Future research directions are presented based on the analysis. The results show that green shipping management focus on solving practical emission reduction problems. Most work of green port construction establish mathematical optimization models aiming at minimizing total operation costs or maximizing profits. Designing efficient algorithms is a research hotspot in operation management. By comparing the technical measures, operational strategy, and market-based measures, we found technical innovation is the ultimate way for the maritime industry to realize net zero-emission. Support from governments and organizations is the insurance of green development. Future research perspectives include adopting high-tech technologies such as blockchain, big data, and artificial intelligent to improve operation efficiency and reduce emissions, providing more accurate suggestions for constructing green and smart ports, proposing multi-objective optimization models and highlighting the environmental target. This research can improve the existing theoretical frameworks and provide several future research directions for academia and practitioners.

Unravelling the landscape of global cobalt trade: Patterns, robustness, and supply chain security

As a strategic mineral resource, cobalt is widely used in electrical, mechanical, chemical, aerospace and other fields. It is of great significance to assess the spatiotemporal evolution and robustness of global cobalt trade to fully understand the global cobalt supply chain security in the new era. To this end, this paper constructs a global cobalt trade network dataset since 2001, employs various complex network analysis methods, portrays the spatiotemporal patterns and evolution process of the global cobalt trade networks, analyzes the topological structures of the global cobalt trade networks, and further measures their structural robustness to provide valuable references for the cognition of global cobalt trade security. The results show that: (1) Global cobalt trade volume has been growing, and the trade links have become increasingly close, gradually forming spatial patterns with obvious hierarchical structures and prominent hub countries. (2) The hierarchical structures of the global cobalt trade networks have undergone significant changes, and the dominant positions of China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the global cobalt trade networks have become increasingly prominent. (3) The backbone structures of the global cobalt trade networks have been expanding and differentiating, forming hub-and-spoke organizational patterns dominated by a few hub countries such as the USA, Germany and China. A few hub countries dominate the entire network backbone structure, but this dominance is not monotonously enhanced. (4) The overall robustness of the global cobalt trade networks shows a declining trend. The dominance of a few nodes and edges in the network structure is becoming increasingly prominent. The cobalt supply will face higher potential risks and challenges once an important node fails or an edge is interrupted. Finally, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to promote cobalt trade cooperation and build a secure and stable cobalt supply chain system.

Augmented Gravity Model of Trade with Social Network Analysis

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognizes international trade as an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction, and an important means to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Given this role, international trade and global trade networks have received preeminent attention in recent times due to the sharp growth in trade volumes and their contributions to poverty reduction and sustainable development over the years. Despite the growth in global trade volumes and the associated benefits, there are worrying concerns about the unprecedented changes in international trade patterns and growing imbalances in trade in recent times. Whereas China’s trade volumes have more than tripled over recent decades and have maintained the largest trade surplus spot ahead of Germany, other major trade surplus countries such as Japan, the USA, etc., have become trade deficit countries with their trade volumes increasing at a much slower pace. In view of the growing changes in international trade patterns and the need to understand the dynamics of the widening global trade imbalances among major trading partners, this paper investigates the factors that determine the export performance of countries. More specifically, the purpose of this paper is to highlight the forces that determine the export performance of countries using an augmented gravity model that includes social networks. The paper provides useful insights into the underlying currents responsible for the changes in international trade patterns. Using data from 51 countries for 41 years, our results indicate that the GDP of both the home country and the partner country affects the home country’s exports positively. Similarly, the real effective exchange rate REER, trade openness OPEN, and dummy variables BORDER, ENGLISH, and EU have produced positive and statistically significant coefficient estimates, and these are in line with our theoretical expectations.

Nondestructive Detecting Maturity of Pineapples Based on Visible and Near-Infrared Transmittance Spectroscopy Coupled with Machine Learning Methodologies

Pineapple is mainly grown in tropical regions and consumed fresh worldwide due to its attractive flavor and health benefits. With increasing global production and trade volume, there is an urgent need for nondestructive techniques for accurate and efficient detection of the internal quality of pineapples. Therefore, this study is dedicated to developing a nondestructive method for real-time determining the internal quality of pineapples by using VIS/NIR transmittance spectroscopy technique and machine learning methodologies. The VIS/NIR transmittance spectrums ranging in 400–1100 nm of total 195 pineapples were collected from a dynamic experimental platform. The maturity grade and soluble solids content (SSC) of individual pineapples were then measured as indicators of internal quality. The qualitative model for discriminating maturity grades of pineapple achieved a high accuracy of 90.8% by the PLSDA model for unknown samples. Meanwhile, the quantitative model for determining SSC also reached a determination coefficient (RP2) of 0.7596 and a root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.7879 °Brix by the ANN-PLS model. Overall, high model performance demonstrated that using VIS/NIR transmittance spectroscopy technique coupled with machine learning methodologies could be a feasible method for nondestructive and real-time detection of the internal quality of pineapples.

The trade-environment nexus in global cereal trade: Combing social network and spatial panel econometrics analysis

The global trade networks of maize, wheat, and rice and their carbon emission networks are established from 2000 to 2020. Social network analysis (SNA) is used to quantify countries' roles in the networks. Spatial econometric model is used to analyze the impacts of socio-economic indicators and the countries' roles according to Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that the global cereal trade volume and their carbon emissions continues to rise. The overall cereal trade networks tend to be complicated and tight. Global cereal trade networks are highly heterogeneous networks with numerous peripheral economies and a few hub countries. However, with the rise of developing economies in cereal trade, the dominance of hubs decrease. The panel regression shows that the network characteristics of three cereal trade have different effects on carbon emissions as follows: (1) In rice trade network closeness centrality increases carbon emissions, meaning countries or regions with more trade connectivity emit more carbon emission. However, in wheat trade network it has reducing effects in whole and low-income countries, while increasing effects in high-income countries. (2) Among the three cereal trade, betweenness centrality reflecting mediating role has significantly negative effects on carbon emissions only in rice trade network. (3) Regarding the number of importing partners, it has positive effects on carbon emissions for wheat and maize trade, while negative for rice trade. The number of exporting partners has positive effects in all the three cereal trade. This study confirms carbon mitigation potentials from trade relationship. This study also discusses some implications for agriculture and policymakers in different countries or regions involved in the global cereal trade.