Global Trade Volume Research Articles

English

Worldwide, the dairy sector is one of the fastest growing productive sectors. The global sector growth in the decade 2011 to 2020 is projected to be higher than that experienced in 2000 to 2010, mainly due to expected robust growth in developing countries. Global milk production in 2014 stood at about 800 million metric tons. India is the global leader in milk production accounting for 16% of output, with the USA coming second with 14.6% of global production, while Africa produces less than 10% of global output. Sub-Saharan Africa commands 0.2% of the global trade volume in the dairy sector. Egypt is the African Continental leader in milk output, as Africa remains the largest importer of milk powders, butter and ghee. The shortfalls in demand show potential investment opportunities and growth areas in the sector. The East African output of butter and ghee stands at about 15% of the African output of these products. Kenya and Uganda produce considerable amounts of processed dairy products, although, the milk processed rarely exceeds 12 to 15% of domestic milk supply, with most milk production being consumed at farm level. Tanzania produces more butter and ghee than other East African Community (EAC) members with Burundi been the least. Although, informal marketing channels, offering cheaper fresh milk are attractive, increasing decentralization of regulatory services, growing effectiveness of law enforcement and consumer awareness of the healthfulness of processed milk, will continue to reduce informal marketing of unprocessed fresh milk in EAC countries. Despite the quest for global export, the unmet domestic dairy products demand in EAC member states may slow entry into global markets. To meet the numerous requirements in export markets requires cautious, planned and systematic forays over time. Key words: East Africa, dairy value chains, processing, marketing, opportunities, challenges.

Singapore and Africa enhancing economic linkages

ABSTRACTWith one of the highest trade to gross domestic product ratios globally, Singapore’s economy is highly susceptible to downturns in global trade volumes and, as such, maintains a strategic interest to achieve diversification among its trade partners. To that end, this small Southeast Asian city-state stands to benefit from its increasing trade and investment with African partners as the broader Southeast Asia–Africa corridor gains momentum. The growing seriousness and effort among Singapore’s private sector to better familiarize itself with African opportunities is compelling. Rising bi-lateral investment and trade flows, new co-operation frameworks and increasingly frequent trade missions are a testament to the extent to which there exists growing awareness and accessibility between Africa and Singapore. Indeed, such activities result from the growing realization that as African economies rise and turn an important corner in their development, there will be abundant opportunities accessible to economic partners beyond the common narratives with the United States, Europe and China. While Singapore may not offer the same level of scale or political clout on the continent, this paper explores early stage progress in identifying specific areas of meaningful co-operation and its attempt to define its role in Africa as a value-adding partner.

Gas Producers Look for Opening

Editor's column While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has shifted strategy over the past couple of years, losing some of its clout to control oil prices, major natural gas producers are working to create their own cartel that they hope could bring some stability to international gas prices. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, decided in late 2014 to stop shoring up oil prices by tweaking global oil supply, leaving it to market dynamics to determine the price of oil. The thinking was to keep market share away from higher-cost producers, such as those in the North American shale. The strategy has basically worked, leaving lots of carnage in its wake. The world’s largest gas producers have a different motive. Because gas is not as tradable as oil, with prices often locked into long-term contracts, gas producers have less ability to influence prices as oil producers do. But the emergence of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade may provide a potential opening for the gas producers group. Twelve country members and nine observer states met in Iran recently to further develop the strategy of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). Participants included Iran, Iraq, Russia, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Algeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, and Libya, among others. It was the largest gathering of the 14-year-old organization, whose members account for almost two-thirds of the world’s gas reserves. Participants discussed the latest trends, developments, and policies affecting natural gas and reaffirmed their support for the objectives of the GECF, which is to support the “collective interests” of its members and encourage cooperation. During the forum, Iran’s president called on gas producers to coordinate policies to increase the share of natural gas in the global energy picture. The GECF lobbied the recent United Nations climate change summit in Paris, noting that gas is a much cleaner-burning energy source than some alternatives. Gas producers are aware that renewables are growing faster than some expected and could undermine gas’ assumed role as the fuel that will bridge oil to future energy supplies. One of the biggest concerns among producers is the pricing mechanism used for gas worldwide. Most of the world’s gas supply is locked in long-term contracts, affecting the seller’s ability to take advantage of market conditions. Although LNG is shipped by tankers and can be priced in short-term contracts, compressed natural gas is shipped via pipeline, making it dependent on long-term deals. Gas producers want what oil producers want—security of demand to fund their economies into the future. But an international gas cartel would face hurdles. Even as LNG trade continues to grow, some of the major LNG exporters—the US, Australia, and Canada—are unlikely to join a cartel. And the volume of global LNG trade still would not approach that of oil, leaving a less transparent market. In addition, the cost of liquefaction infrastructure would likely see players looking for long-term contracts. JPT

Will global convergence of per-capita emissions lead the way to meeting the UNFCCC goal?

ABSTRACTOne of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per-capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A range of carbon taxes are considered for Annex I countries as policy instruments. Results show that the average per-capita CO2 emissions of Annex I countries would still remain almost twice as high as those of Non-Annex I countries in 2030 even if the CO2 emissions of the former are reduced by 57% from the baseline through a heavy carbon tax of $250/tCO2. The global reduction of CO2 emissions would be only 18% due to an increase in CO2 emissions in the Non-Annex I countries. This reduction would not be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at the level implied by UNFCCC to avoid dangerous climate change. The $250/tCO2 carbon tax, on the other hand, would reduce Annex I countries’ gross domestic product by 2.4%, and global trade volume by 2%. This paper concludes that a demand for the convergence of per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries would not be fruitful in climate change negotiations.

Financial Regulations and Price Inconsistencies across Bitcoin Markets

We document systematic differences in bitcoin prices across 11 different markets representing 26% of global bitcoin trade volume. These differences must ? due to the identical nature of all bitcoin ? result from characteristics of markets themselves. We examine differences across the markets and find that those which do not require customer identification for establishing an account are more likely to deviate from representative market prices than those which do. This implies that standard financial regulations, specifically know-your-customer regulations, can have a non-negligible impact on the bitcoin market.

The fire ant Solenopsis saevissima and habitat disturbance alter ant communities

The fire ant Solenopsis saevissima is a major pest frequent in human-disturbed areas of its native range where it forms ‘supercolonies’. We determined that its natural habitat in French Guiana is likely the sporadically flooded riparian forest and aimed to evaluate this ant’s impact on the abundance and diversity of other ants by comparing different habitats at two sites. We noted a significant decrease in ant species richness between the rainforest and human-disturbed habitats (but not between the former and the naturally disturbed riparian forest), and between extreme habitats and all others. The number of ant nests per surface unit (i.e., quadrats of equal surface area), a proxy of ant abundance, globally followed this pattern. S. saevissima was absent from pristine rainforest (as expected) and from extreme habitats, showing the limits of its adaptability, whereas some other native ants can develop in these habitats. Ant species richness was significantly lower in the presence of S. saevissima in the riparian forest, forest edges and meadows, illustrating that this ant species has a negative impact on the ant communities in addition to the impact of natural- and man-made disturbances. Only some ant species can develop in its presence, and certain of these can even thrive. Because it has been recorded in Africa, Guadeloupe and the Galápagos Islands, we concluded that, due to the increasing volume of global trade and forest destruction, S. saevissima could become a pantropical invasive species.

International trade after intervention: The case of bedroom furniture

The global trade volume of wooden bedroom furniture has reached US$8.33 billion in 2012. China has been the largest exporter and the United States has been the largest importer in this increasingly globalized market. After the trade dispute and intervention between China and the United States in 2005, China has continued to export more wooden bedroom furniture to the world. In this study, the impact of economic factors and trade intervention on the import demand of wooden bedroom furniture was analyzed for leading exporters in four selected individual markets (i.e., the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Japan). Main findings were that the antidumping duty against China in the United States generated a negative depression effect on China's exports to the United States and positive diversion effect on the exports from other countries. Furthermore, China has expanded its exports to other markets, especially to the United Kingdom and Australia, and maintained strong trade growth in wooden bedroom furniture worldwide. These results revealed that trade intervention in one market against an individual country could generate worldwide impacts.

The determinants of trading volume distribution: Evidence from globally cross-listed stocks

This paper documents the global trading volume distribution of cross-listed stocks and examines factors that make a host market competitive in attracting order flows between host and home markets. We hand-collect a sample of 642 cross-listed firms in 10 host countries with 771 cross-listings from 39 home countries between 1981 and 2010. We document that, for the first time, whether a host market shares the language or legal origin with the home markets has significant impact on attracting order flows. We also find that host markets are more successful in attracting trading volume when they have a higher information factor, have lower bid-ask spreads, provide better investor protection and information disclosure, and are closer to the home market. Additionally, small but mature high-tech firms with high growth rate, volatile stock returns and high foreign sales are prone to execute more trading in host markets.

Quantifying the impact of weather extremes on global food security: A spatial bio-economic approach

This study uses a spatial bio-economic modelling framework to estimate the impact of the 2012 weather extreme in the USA on food security in the developing world. The study also quantifies the potential effects of a similar weather extreme occurring in 2050 under climate change. The study results indicate that weather extremes that affect maize productivity in key grain baskets can negatively affect food security in vulnerable countries. The 2012 weather extreme which occurred in the USA reduced US and global maize production by 29% compared to trend; maize consumption in the country decreased by 5% only and this resulted in less surplus maize for exports from the largest maize exporter in the world. Global maize production decreased by 6% compared to trend. The decrease in global maize production coupled with a reduction in the volume of global maize exports worsened food insecurity in eastern Africa, the Caribbean and Central America and India. The effects of the weather extreme on global food security would be worse, if the latter were to occur under climate change in 2050, assuming no climate change adaptation worldwide over the years. In addition, the hardest-hit regions would remain the same, whether the weather extreme occurs in 2012 instead of 2050: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), South Asia and the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. However, sustained growth in per capita income across world economies between 2000 and 2050 would allow few countries in SSA and the LAC region to virtually eliminate hunger within their borders. In these countries, per capita income would be high enough by 2050 to completely offset the negative effect of the weather extreme. The study results are also consistent with USDA׳s estimates on US and global maize production and consumption in 2012 after the weather extreme. Some discrepancy is found on the volume of global maize trade; this implies that the bio-economic model likely overestimates the effect of the weather extreme on food insecurity. However, the trends from the analysis are likely to be valid. Further research would involve using a CGE model that can capture the net effects of weather extremes.

Foreign Trade in September 2013

The WTO has revised downward the forecast of growth in the global trade volume. In January-July 2013, the foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation decreased due to a drop in export supplies. From October 2, 2013, Rosselkhoznadzor introduced temporary restrictions on supplies to Russia of animal origin products from 10 Brazilian factories.

The impacts of the global economic crisis on selected segments of the world trade in commodities

This paper deals with the impacts of the economic crisis on the world trade in order to highlight the mutual interdependence of the development of the world output and trade. The paper observes mutual correlation in development of the world trade and output. The results of the analysis indicate that changes in the value of world GDP and world trade are correlated by more than 90%. It is important to mention that in the years 2000–2009, the value of world trade and world output increased significantly (although in 2009, a significant decline in both value and volume of global production and trade was recorded due to the crisis). In relation to the world trade, it should be noted that its commodity structure is dominated by trade in manufactures. The crisis that occurred in the period 2008–2009 greatly affected the world economy and trade in particular. In this respect it should be pointed out that the crisis mainly affected trade in manufactures and then trade in fuels and mining outputs in terms of both absolute and relative indicators. Agrarian trade dealt with the crisis the best and the impact of the crisis on development of its values and volume was the least significant. This verifies the fact that agrarian and food products tend to be the most resistant to the crisis (on contrary, in times of global economic growth or reconstruction, the trade in agrarian and food products shows lower degree of elasticity in relation to the global GDP growth in comparison to other segments of commodities trade).

The Effect of Fragmentation in Trading on Market Quality in the UK Equity Market

We investigate the effects of fragmentation of equity trading on the quality of the trading outcomes specifically, volatility, liquidity and volume. We use panel regression methods on a weekly dataset following the FTSE350 stocks over the period 2008-2011, which provides a lot of cross-sectional and time series variation in fragmentation. This period coincided with a great deal of turbulence in the UK equity markets which had multiple causes that need to be controlled for. To achieve this, we use a version of the common correlated effects estimator (Pesaran, 2006). One finding is that volatility is lower in a fragmented market when compared to a monopoly. Trading volume at the London Stock Exchange is lower too, but global trading volume is higher if order flow is fragmented across multiple venues. When separating overall fragmentation into visible fragmentation and dark reading, we find that the decline in LSE volume can be attributed to visible fragmentation, while the increase in global volume is due to dark trading.

India and Australia: Security Dynamics in the Asia Pacific

India and Australia are rediscovering the vast potentials of maximizing mutual benefits that are inherent in their complementary economies. There is also a great deal of convergence of interests in the strategic domain. As an emerging power, India's profile has attracted attention by countries in the Asia Pacific region, which tended to neglect it in the past. The rise of China and its assertive stances have created an element of uneasiness in the region. Its military modernization and beefing up of naval capability are suspected to be behind enhancing its power projection capability. The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean for the region is huge. The region's growth is inextricably linked to the Indian Ocean. The littoral states in the region are home to 2.6 billion people, almost 40% of the world's population. The Indian Ocean is the world's third largest body of water, and the world's leading energy and trade seaway. The volume of global trade brings with it the re-emerging problems of terrorism and piracy, a shared policing challenge for all littoral states. The security of the Indian Ocean goes to the heart of both India's and Australia's national interests.

Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?

Does global currency volume increase on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days? To test hypotheses of abnormal currency volume on FOMC days, a new data set from the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) Bank is used. The CLS measure captures more than half of the global trading volume in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The evidence shows that FX trading volume increases about 5% in the spot and the spot-next market following FOMC deliberations. The novelty of this result is that the aggregated CLS data controls for responses in various derivatives markets: a feature that existing studies based on intradaily data for specific trading platforms do not consider.

Recovery from Crisis for Turkish Firms: Synergistic Action between Foreign Policy and Marketing Process

Global economic crises and recession periods radically change the nature of markets due to the shifts in the behaviors of individuals and firms. Market players engaged in international trade have been affected unfavorably from the contraction in the volume of global trade. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of foreign policy of the State on firms’ market performance in global or international marketplaces, considering three fully linked key constructs; awareness towards active foreign policy, awareness towards country/political image, and awareness towards new market/country opportunities. Thus this study examines the role of foreign policy in minimizing the negative effects of contraction in international trade for the country's firms. Specifically, a regression model was developed for hypothesized relations between the constructs of the study. An empirical research was conducted by using data from 374 Turkish SMEs engaged in international trade to test our conceptual model. The data were analyzed through t-test and regression analyzes. The study shows that active foreign policy of Turkey has a significant impact on market performances of Turkish firms in neighboring and peripheral countries. The findings of this study suggest that proactive and positive foreign policy towards other countries can be employed as an instrument to support market activities of the country's firms in international area. This is a signal for the possibility of synergy between foreign policy and international or global marketing performance.

The Critical Success of the WTO: Trade Policies of the Current Economic Crisis

This note addresses the trade policy measures states have taken during the current economic crisis and makes comparison with those taken during the Great Depression. While significant protectionist pressures are evident in both crises, the note finds that WTO Members have largely resisted broad protectionist measures and that the further decline in global trade volume during 2009 cannot be attributed to discretionary trade policies. Given these observations, the note suggests four elements of the multilateral trading system that preserve the system's integrity and ensure that the WTO passes its most significant stress test yet. Based on these four elements--economic efficiency, transparency, enforceability, and stability--the note recommends normative principles applicable to all regulation of international economic relations. Oxford University Press 2010, all rights reserved, Oxford University Press.

South China Sea : Platform for prosperity or arena for altercation?

The South China Sea provides a critical passage to a significant volume of global seaborne trade and a lifeline for East Asian economies which depend on energy imports from the Middle East. The Sea also features stunning mega biodiversity and rich fishing ground and is believed to contain prolific deposits of hydrocarbon energy resources. Several nations in the region are involved in overlapping territorial claims in the Sea. Some claimants have defended their interests in a vigorous manner which have led to conflicts and in the Sea. It is feared that if not managed and settled amicably, these claims may turn the Sea into a flashpoint that will threaten regional prosperity and stability. This paper highlights the economic and strategic importance of this strategic body of water as a prelude to discussing the overlapping claims by several nations on parts of the sea. It warns against overzealous acts by nations to stake their claims that may pose a threat to security, stability and prosperity in the region and may invite the presence of outside powers keen to capitalize on such situation. It strongly advocates using trade and economic development as a common denominators to foster cooperation among the nations as a way to ease tension arising from their claims in the sea. The paper recommends several policy options – including introducing a binding Code of Conduct, exploring joint exploration and increasing cooperation in are s such as navigation safety and resource management – towards making the Sea a platform of prosperity for its littoral nations.

The Global Financial Crisis and Asian Economies: Impacts and Trade Policy Responses

The global financial crisis, triggered by the bursting of a speculative bubble in the U.S. housing market in 2008 (the sub-prime crisis), has caused ruptures across many countries in the form of financial failure and trade contraction. From about late-2009 there have been some signs of the global economic contraction bottoming. Industrial production in the United States and other major developed countries has begun to recover. The downward spiral in global trade volumes has abated, and the most recent month shows a modest upturn. The latest Worm Economic Outlook Update (26 January 2010) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the global economy to grow by 3.9 per cent this year, following an unprecedented contraction of 0.8 per cent in 2009. However, the IMF cautions that the economic forces unleashed by the crisis will probably run rampant for years; the recovery, driven largely by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, remains fragile in many parts of the world and massive policy efforts are needed to sustain the recovery. It is still hard, therefore, to paint a reasonable growth trajectory extending beyond few months: there could even be a lost decade for the U.S. economy (and even for a few countries in Europe) like that suffered by Mexico in the 1980s, or by Japan in the 1990s. After the recovery process sets in, the United States and other crisis-affected developed countries will have to save more and import less in order to wind down the massive accumulated debts. It was earlier expected that the emerging and developing economies in Southeast Asia would be able to ride the wave of the global economic downturn through growing domestic markets and less direct exposure to shocks emanating from the breakdown of the major financial institutions in the economic powerhouses, especially in the United States and the European Union. Some economies in the region were projected to maintain strong growth in 2009--7 per cent for Vietnam, 4.8 per cent for Cambodia, 4.5 per cent for Indonesia, and 3.7 per cent for the Philippines. These sanguine predictions are attributed mainly to limited direct exposure to crisis epicentres and their experience of the 1997 Asian financial crisis after which they have run relatively conservative economic measures, including persistent current account surpluses, tightened financial regulations, sound budget deficits and flexible exchange rate regimes. Nevertheless, the aftermath of the global economic breakdown in 2009 has proven that these upbeat forecasts have been unrealistic as the regional economies have entered the worst post-1997 recession, and the pernicious effects of the global economic bites have become increasingly discernible. Asian Development Bank (ADB), for instance, projected a momentous plummet in commodity exports--32 per cent in Vietnam, 25 per cent in Indonesia, 18 per cent in Thailand, and 13 per cent in Malaysia. Furthermore, the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated the spiralling unemployment rates across Southeast Asia, propelling 7.2 million more people into unemployment due to the fallout from the global economic slump. The recent data released by International Monetary Fund (IMF) also pointed to drastic capital inflow reversals as a consequence of the deleveraging process in the advanced economies that slashed net capital flows to emerging markets by about 2 percentage points of GDP in comparison with 2007. The World Bank further warned that several downside risks remain, such as falling inflows of international remittances, deteriorating economic vulnerabilities and aggravated poverty reductions and rural development. While much work to restore global economic balances rests with the world's leading nations like the United States and the European Union, the Southeast Asian economies by and large have a pivotal role to play in ushering a robust economic recovery, putting in place macroeconomic stability, refurbishing business confidence and directing international financial system reforms. …

The globalisation of the wine industry: new world, old world and China

PurposeAs the Chinese economy continues to develop, rising incomes for many people has meant significant shifts in consumption patterns. Over the past several years, per capita wine consumption in China has doubled. Although off a relatively low base, this still represents a significant sales volume. At the same time, the wine industry in the country has been undergoing restructuring with China now emerging as a major producer in world terms. These developments have been occurring at a time when the global wine industry has become increasingly globalised with so‐called new world (NW) suppliers challenging established European companies in existing and emerging wine markets. In this context, the paper aims to look at the possible threats as well as opportunities presented by China as a relatively new player in the market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper reviews recent production and consumption trends in the world wine market. The changing patterns and growing volume of global wine trade is then assessed in light of the significant structural changes occurring in the industry in both importing and exporting countries. Recent developments in the wine market in China are identified and possible future implications for the world market are discussed.FindingsNW wine producers are increasingly encroaching on traditional wine consuming markets and gaining advantage in new and growing markets. One result has been an expanding and increasingly competitive global market place. China, meanwhile, is seen to have considerable potential for growth in terms of wine consumption, while at the same time posing a possible threat to existing exporters in third markets.Originality/valueKnowledge of emerging trends in wine markets and likely future developments are important for industry participants as well as policy makers in countries where wine is an increasingly important traded commodity. The paper provides an important contribution to the understanding of the global nature of the wine industry and the potential influence of China as both a major producer and consumer of wine.

Which Factors Influence Trading Costs in Global Equity Markets?

This article examines global trends in equity-related transaction costs and trading volume by identifying recent patterns in institutional brokerage commissions, indirect trading costs, and trading activity. The results indicate a steady decline in brokerage commissions around the world, but indirect trading costs appear to have reached a plateau. The fastest growth in trading volume can be found in the emerging markets of South America, but the United States leads the way in terms of the steepest reductions in transaction costs. The empirical evidence also shows there is a simultaneous relationship between global equity trading volume and transaction costs that is driven by trends in both U.S. and local equity markets. This suggests that global investors are likely becoming more cost-sensitive and increasingly open to directing orders to those international markets where transaction costs are lower.