THE WORLD IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF A NEW FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

Abstract

The paper provides an analysis of the current state of the world economy and a short-term forecast of its development. It is shown that the USA and the EU have become the epicenter of a new financial and economic crisis and today their economies are already in a state of stagflation, characterized by high inflation and low growth rates. The tightening of monetary policy, through aggressive increases in key interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, to curb inflation and reduce it to the target level of 2% per annum, led to a sharp reduction in investment in the economy, which, in turn, will cause recessions in 2024 with a recession depth of 1.2–1.4% in the US economy and 1.9–2.1% in the EU economy. Vanguard developing countries will only slow down slightly, and their leaders, China and India, will maintain high rates of economic growth at 4.5 and 6% per year, respectively, in the medium term. The crisis will lead to a cascade of defaults among heavily indebted, low-income developing countries. As a result, the crisis will also engulf the global economy, significantly reducing its growth rate from 5.2% in 2022 to 1.7% in 2024, with a sharp decline in global trade volumes. Recommendations are given that can contribute to a quick and successful exit from the current crisis.