Global Reanalysis Research Articles

Evaluating biases in Penman and Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration rates at different timescales

The Penman and Penman–Monteith equations are widely used for estimating surface evapotranspiration (ET) at regional and global scales. These nonlinear equations were derived from the turbulent transport of heat fluxes and, in theory, need to be applied to a temporal scale ranging from half hour to an hour. However, these equations have been frequently applied with hydrometeorological variables averaged at daily, monthly, and even decadal time intervals, resulting in biases due to their nonlinearities. In this study, we used global reanalysis data and Taylor expanded Penman and Penman–Monteith equations to explore their nonlinear components and the biases associated with the timescale mismatches. We found that global average biases for approximating Penman equation range from 0.72 to 1.31 mm day−1 from daily to annual timescales, which mainly stem from the temperature–radiation, temperature–vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and aerodynamic conductance–VPD covariances. For Penman–Monteith equation, the corresponding biases vary from 0.47 to 0.53 mm day−1, which may be associated with the addition of stomatal conductance–VPD covariances. As a reference, the global averages from Penman and Penman–Monteith at hourly timescale over one year are 7.1 and 1.7 mm day−1. Large biases also exist around the world across various climate zones, where one or multiple covariances between meteorological variables makes the first-order approximations of Penman and Penman–Monteith equations less accurate. This analysis serves as a reminder of nonlinearities in Penman and Penman–Monteith equations, hence the requirement of data at high temporal resolution for estimating potential or actual evapotranspiration.

Understanding the association between global forest fire products and hydrometeorological variables

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have influenced the frequency and magnitude of forest fires both globally and regionally. While skilful short- to extended-range prediction of forest fires is essential for effective mitigation in local communities, it is also important to identify the implications of forest fires on different sectors, including water resources and sustainable development. Limited studies have investigated the association between forest fires and hydrometeorological variables at the regional scale in developing countries due to the lack of necessary datasets, which can now be leveraged using the newly hosted global reanalysis of fire danger indices (referred to as fire indices). The current study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variations of eight fire indices across India, as well as their association with hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and the streamflow of a major river basin (Mahanadi) in India. The accuracy of these indices in capturing real fire events and the potential benefit of incorporating fire indices into long-term hydrologic simulations are also explored. The results show that fire indices can accurately yield fire seasons (i.e., post-monsoon and summer) in India. Furthermore, forest fires are found to be strongly associated with hydro-meteorological variables, typically resulting in low streamflow regimes. Fire indices can also capture actual fire events, maintaining high scalar accuracy. Finally, an improvement in uncalibrated hydrologic model simulations is observed when simulated streamflow is post-processed using the fire indices as predictors. Overall, the current study has valuable implications for fire indices forecasting and hydrologic simulations in ungauged basins.

Assessment of water levels from 43 years of NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) for the Gulf of Mexico and East Coasts

Coastal water level information is crucial for understanding flood occurrences and changing risks. Here, we validate the preliminary version (0.9) of NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA), which is a 43-year reanalysis (1979–2021) of hourly coastal water levels for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean (i.e., the Gulf and East Coast region, or GEC). CORA-GEC v0.9 was conducted by the Renaissance Computing Institute using the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN coastal circulation and wave model. The model uses an unstructured mesh of nodes with varying spatial resolution that averages 400 m near the coast and is much coarser in the open ocean. Water level variations associated with tides and meteorological forcing are explicitly modeled, while lower-frequency water level variations are included by dynamically assimilating observations from NOAA’s National Water Level Observation Network. We compare CORA to water level observations that were either assimilated or not, and find that the reanalysis generally performs better than a state-of-the-art global ocean reanalysis (GLORYS12) in capturing the variability on monthly, seasonal, and interannual timescales as well as the long-term trend. The variability of hourly non-tidal residuals is also shown to be well resolved in CORA when compared to water level observations. Lastly, we present a case study of extreme water levels and coastal inundations around Miami, Florida to demonstrate an application of CORA for studying flood risks. Our assessment suggests that NOAA’s CORA-GEC v0.9 provides valuable information on water levels and flooding occurrence from 1979–2021 in areas that are experiencing changes across multiple time scales. CORA potentially can enhance flood risk assessment along parts of the U.S. Coast that do not have historical water level observations.

Ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and PM2.5 estimation from observation-model machine learning fusion over S. Korea: Influence of observation density, chemical transport model resolution, and geostationary remotely sensed AOD

High-resolution multi-component estimates of ground-level air pollutants are necessary for assessing their impacts to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems. We demonstrate a high-resolution fusion and downscaling approach over South Korea for May 2016 and May 2021. Daily 1 km fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations are calculated at ground level using a random forest machine learning (ML) algorithm, with predictors including reanalysis meteorology, satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD), and gridded surface fields from chemical transport models (CTM). The ML model is tested for May 2016, coinciding with the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) intensive field campaign, and for May 2021, to allow incorporation of observations from the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS). In the tests for May 2016, the correlation coefficients (R) and root mean squared errors (RMSE) relative to withheld observations of daily-averaged pollutants in 10-fold cross-validation are promising: 0.93 (5.5 μg/m3), 0.90 (5.5 ppbv), and 0.95 (4.7 ppbv) for PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively. Relative performance is assessed for alternate choices of predictors: (a) 80-km global reanalysis Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) vs. 4-km regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem); (b) AOD polar-orbiting Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) vs. geostationary GEMS; and (c) variations in surface observation density. This study is among the very first to incorporate both CTM and GEMS AOD for building surface high resolution multiple air pollution predictions over South Korea.

Assessing downscaling methods to simulate hydrologically relevant weather scenarios from a global atmospheric reanalysis: case study of the upper Rhône River (1902–2009)

Abstract. We assess the ability of two modelling chains to reproduce, over the last century (1902–2009) and from large-scale atmospheric information only, the temporal variations in river discharges, low-flow sequences and flood events observed at different locations of the upper Rhône River catchment, an alpine river straddling France and Switzerland (10 900 km2). The two modelling chains are made up of a downscaling model, either statistical (Sequential Constructive Atmospheric Analogues for Multivariate weather Predictions – SCAMP) or dynamical (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional – MAR), and the Glacier and SnowMelt SOil CONTribution (GSM-SOCONT) model. Both downscaling models, forced by atmospheric information from the global atmospheric reanalysis ERA-20C, provide time series of daily scenarios of precipitation and temperature used as inputs to the hydrological model. With hydrological regimes ranging from highly glaciated ones in its upper part to mixed ones dominated by snow and rain downstream, the upper Rhône River catchment is ideal for evaluating the different downscaling models in contrasting and demanding hydro-meteorological configurations where the interplay between weather variables in both space and time is determinant. Whatever the river sub-basin considered, the simulated discharges are in good agreement with the reference ones, provided that the weather scenarios are bias-corrected. The observed multi-scale variations in discharges (daily, seasonal, and interannual) are reproduced well. The low-frequency hydrological situations, such as annual monthly discharge minima (used as low-flow proxy indicators) and annual daily discharge maxima (used as flood proxy indicators), are reproduced reasonably well. The observed increase in flood activity over the last century is also reproduced rather well. The observed low-flow activity is conversely overestimated, and its variations from one sub-period to another are only partially reproduced. Bias correction is crucial for both precipitation and temperature and for both downscaling models. For the dynamical one, a bias correction is also essential for getting realistic daily temperature lapse rates. Uncorrected scenarios lead to irrelevant hydrological simulations, especially for the sub-basins at high elevation, due mainly to irrelevant snowpack dynamic simulations. The simulations also highlight the difficulty in simulating precipitation dependency on elevation over mountainous areas.

Global variation in ecoregion flammability thresholds

Anthropogenic climate change is altering the state of worldwide fire regimes, including by increasing the number of days per year when vegetation is dry enough to burn. Indices representing the percent moisture content of dead fine fuels as derived from meteorological data have been used to assess geographic patterns and temporal trends in vegetation flammability. To date, this approach has assumed a single flammability threshold, typically between 8 and 12%, controlling fire potential regardless of the vegetation type or climate domain. Here we use remotely sensed burnt area products and a common fire weather index calculated from global meteorological reanalysis data to identify and describe geographic variation in fuel moisture as a flammability threshold. This geospatial analysis identified a wide range of flammability thresholds associated with fire activity across 772 ecoregions, often well above or below the commonly used range of values. Many boreal and temperate forests, for example, can ignite and sustain wildfires with higher estimated fuel moisture than previously identified; Mediterranean forests, in contrast, tend to sustain fires with consistently low estimated fuel moisture. Statistical modelling showed that flammability thresholds derived from burnt area are primarily driven by climatological variables, particularly precipitation and temperature. Our analysis also identified complex associations between vegetation structure, fuel types, and climatic conditions highlighting the complexity in vegetation–climate–fire relationships globally. Our study provides a critical, necessary step in understanding and describing global pyrogeography and tracking changes in spatial and temporal fire activity.

Inter‐comparison and validation of high‐resolution surface air temperature reanalysis fields over Italy

AbstractSurface air temperature (t2m) data are essential for understanding climate dynamics and assessing the impacts of climate change. Reanalysis products, which combine observations with retrospective short‐range weather forecasts, can provide consistent and comprehensive datasets. ERA5 represents the state‐of‐the‐art in global reanalyses and supplies initial and boundary conditions for higher‐resolution regional reanalyses designed to capture finer‐scale atmospheric processes. However, these products require validation, especially in complex terrains like Italy. This study analyses the capability of different reanalysis products to reproduce t2m fields over Italy during the 1991–2020 period. The analyses encompass ERA5, ERA5‐Land, the MEteorological Reanalysis Italian DAtaset (MERIDA), the Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA), and the Very High‐Resolution dynamical downscaling of ERA5 REAnalysis over ITaly (VHR‐REA_IT). The validation we conduct pertains to both the spatial distribution of 30‐year seasonal and annual normal values and the daily anomaly records. Each reanalysis is compared with observations projected onto its respective grid positions and elevations, overcoming any model bias resulting from an inaccurate representation of the real topography. Key findings reveal that normal values in reanalyses closely match observational values, with deviations typically below 1°C. However, in the Alps, winter cold biases sometimes exceed 3°C and show a relation with the elevation. Similar deviations occur in the Apennines, Sicily, and Sardinia. Conversely, VHR‐REA_IT shows a warm bias in the Po Valley up to 3°C in summer. Daily anomalies generally exhibit lower errors, with MERIDA showing the highest accuracy and correlation with observational fields. Moreover, when aggregating daily anomalies to annual time scales, the errors in the anomaly records rapidly decrease to <0.5°C. The results of this study empower reanalysis users across multiple sectors to gain a more profound insight into the capabilities and constraints of different reanalysis products. The knowledge and the characterization of the reanalyses t2m bias against observations can indeed be crucial when incorporating these products into their research and practical applications.

Ocean waves in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An evaluation of global wave models

AbstractIn situ wave observations are essential for implementing coastal management strategies, designing coastal and offshore structures and understanding many processes related to sedimentology and marine biology. Despite their importance, these observations are rather scarce in the coastal areas of southeastern South America. Moreover, the existing observations are discontinuous, with several gaps and no simultaneity. Today, global wave models have improved their performance by providing reliable wave parameters with high resolution and coverage even at near‐shore areas. In this work, wave parameters from five global models were compared with significant wave heights (HS), peak periods (T) and propagation direction at nine sites located at the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean. The global products used were WAVERYS (Global Reanalysis Wav 001 032), IOWAGA (WAVEWATCH III Hindcast – WW3 – Global grid – CFSR), ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis), NOAA WW3 – 30‐year Hindcast Phase 2 and NCEP/EMC Operational global wave model GFS – Wave. Mean arithmetic error (Bias), root mean square deviation, scatter index and the Pearson linear correlation coefficient (r) were assessed at each location where wave observations were available. The best agreements for HS were obtained at the deepest sites located farther from the coast. Lower statistical metrics were achieved at coastal sites where the bathymetry is roughly represented by the global models. The calculated correlation coefficients were found to be lower for T than for HS. Overall, T was slightly underestimated by global models. Wave propagation directions were excellently represented by global models at offshore sites. The WAVERYS model is the global product that best represents the wave parameters in the study area, probably due to its higher spatial resolution (0.2°) and more realistic atmospheric forcing (ERA5). In addition, it satisfactorily represents the temporal variability of HS in open water as well as swell characteristics at the outer the Río de la Plata.

Reconstructing long-term natural flows by ensemble machine learning

Large-scale human activities have caused significant disruption to the natural flow regime of rivers worldwide, leading to substantial deviations from river flows’ natural state. The natural hydrological regime of rivers holds great significance for the conservation and management of riverine ecosystems, which relies on the accurate reconstruction of natural river flows. However, the application of existing high spatiotemporal resolution large-scale natural flow datasets at the regional scale has not been adequately assessed, thereby limiting their regional-scale utility. In this study, utilizing global reanalysis datasets and observation data, in combination with ensemble machine learning models, we constructed long-term natural flow time series for inflows into the Pearl River Delta and evaluated the performance of these reconstructed inflows based on observed flow records during undisturbed periods. The reconstruction shows that the ensemble model, the AutoGluon model, indicates the best performance when compared with other machine learning models and outperforms the existing publicly available large-scale datasets in terms of evaluation metrics for the corresponding natural flows. The results of Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration and Range of Variability Analysis (IHA-RVA) indicate that climate variability, reservoir regulation and human activities have significantly altered the natural flow regime of the Pearl River Delta. Specifically, human activities generally tend to smooth natural flow variability in the Pearl River Delta. This research is expected to provide an efficient and reliable method for reconstructing natural flows and offers guidance for water resource management and ecosystem conservation.

A Regionally Refined and Mass‐Consistent Atmospheric and Hydrological De‐Aliasing Product for GRACE, GRACE‐FO and Future Gravity Missions

AbstractDe‐aliasing products are used in the estimation process of satellite‐based gravity field computation to reduce errors from high‐frequency mass variations that alias into monthly gravity fields. The latest official product is AOD1B RL07 and describes non‐tidal atmosphere and oceanic mass variations at 3‐hourly resolution. However, the model‐based de‐aliasing products are inevitably incomplete and prone to temporally and spatially correlated errors that substantially contribute to errors in the estimated gravity fields. Here, we investigate possible enhancement of current de‐aliasing products by nesting a regional high‐resolution atmospheric reanalysis over Europe into a global reanalysis. As further novelty we include almost mass consistent terrestrial water storage variability from a regional hydrological model nested into a global model as additional component of the de‐aliasing product. While we find in agreement with earlier studies only minor contributions from increasing the temporal resolution beyond 3‐hourly data, our investigations suggest that contributions from continental hydrology and from regional non‐hydrostatic atmospheric modeling to sub‐monthly mass variations could be relevant already for gravity fields estimated from current gravity missions. Moreover, in the context of extreme events, we find regionally contributions from additional moisture fields, such as cloud liquid water, in the order of a few mm over Europe. We suggest this needs to be taken into account when preparing data analysis schemes for future space gravimetric missions.

The Role of Atmospheric Stabilities and Moisture Convergence in the Enhanced Dry Season Precipitation over Land from 1979 to 2021

Abstract Between 1979 and 2021, global ocean regions experienced a decrease in dry season precipitation, while the trend over land areas varied considerably. Some regions, such as southeastern China, the Maritime Continent, eastern Europe, and eastern North America, showed a slight increasing trend in dry season precipitation. This study analyzes the potential mechanisms behind this trend by using the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) data. The analysis shows that the weakening of downward atmospheric motions played a critical role in enhancing dry season precipitation over land. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that larger convergent moisture fluxes lead to an increase in water vapor content below 400 hPa. This, in turn, induced an unstable tendency in the moist static energy profile, leading to a more unstable atmosphere and weakening downward motions, which drove the trend toward increasing dry season precipitation over land. More water vapor in the low troposphere is because of higher moisture convergence and moisture transport from ocean to land regions. In summary, this study demonstrates the intricate elements involved in altering dry season rainfall trends over land, which also emphasizes the importance of comprehending the spatial distribution of the wet-get-wetter and dry-get-drier paradigm. Significance Statement This study found that global land precipitation during the dry season slightly increased from 1979 to 2021, while precipitation over oceans declined. Moist static energy analysis showed a trend toward less stability in areas with increased dry season precipitation and the opposite trend in regions with declining precipitation. Water vapor content trends and dynamic components were the primary controlling mechanism for precipitation trends. Furthermore, the hotspots with pronounced increases or decreases in dry season precipitation reflect local circulation changes influenced by anthropogenic or natural factors.

Potential of low-cost PM monitoring sensors to fill monitoring gaps in areas of Sub-Saharan Africa

Recent advances in low-cost (LC) sensor technology fostered their deployment in low-income and undersampled countries such as Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions, affected by the highest particulate matter (PM) concentrations and population exposure. The present study is the first addressed in Niamey, Niger, and focuses on assessing LC sensor data and global reanalysis products. Three LC PM2.5 and PM10 monitoring stations were deployed and successfully operated across ∼8 months at different (urban, suburban and rural) locations.Observed PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations revealed consistent patterns, higher during the dry Harmattan season, while appreciably lower during the humid monsoon season. In Niamey, PM2.5 mean concentrations (6.1–20.1 μg/m3) were similar to those observed over higher-income countries, confirming the hypothesis of strictly depending on urbanisation, and thus on anthropogenic activities. Conversely, PM10 concentrations (55.3–142.8 μg/m3) were remarkably higher than most of those measured elsewhere worldwide, and predominantly constituted (81–89%) by coarse fraction. PM10 origin, inferred by backtrajectory analysis, was mainly natural (Saharan dust) during the Harmattan season, and both natural and anthropogenic during the monsoon season.Low-resolution gridded estimations by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) were not capable of adequately resolving the spatial variability of PM2.5 and PM10 observations in Niamey, further highlighting the importance of sensor network data to improve air quality knowledge. To tackle the harmful effects of Saharan dust on population, and create robust datasets integrated with gridded products in this challenging region, effort should be put toward creation of trans-national integrated monitoring networks based on LC sensors across SSA.

ERA5-Land overestimates runoff coefficient but underestimates runoff recession rate in the central Tibetan permafrost region

Study regionThe source region of Yangtze River (SRYR) Study focusBetter understanding the influence of soil freeze/thaw (F/T) activity on runoff production is vital for cold regions like the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. While global reanalysis products offer full spatial coverage and fine temporal resolution for runoff estimates, their accuracy in depicting runoff dynamics within permafrost-dominated regions remains uncertain. To address this gap, a thorough assessment of the ERA5-Land runoff products within the SRYR was undertaken to determine their effectiveness in representing specific permafrost hydrological mechanisms. New hydrological insights for the regionOur analysis reveals that ERA5-Land adequately captures the intra-annual variability of runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff coefficients while underestimate runoff recession rates. The monthly runoff coefficient fluctuates during the thaw season, showing decreasing trends from May to increasing trends after July. The runoff recession rate generally shifts from acceleration to retardation during the freezing period (October-March), influenced significantly by snow cover and soil F/T dynamics. There's a discernible delay in the observed transition time (0.3 days/a) of runoff recession from 1980 to 2020, closely linked (R>0.35, p<0.05) to soil F/T indices. Notably, the simulated transition time lacks significant trends, and displays contrasting correlations with soil F/T indices. This highlights a critical need for the ERA5-Land model to refine its representation of soil F/T dynamics, particularly snow physics and soil thermal schemes.

ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PV OUTPUT PERFORMANCE WITH VARYING TILT ANGLES AND WEATHER DATA FROM ERA5: CASE OF MUNTINLUPA CITY, PHILIPPINES

Abstract. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has been gaining popularity in the Philippines as an alternative source of sustainable energy. In such technology, module tilt angle and weather conditions are among the system parameters that have substantial impacts on PV system performance. Previous studies have considered either tilt angles or weather conditions, but not the combined impact of these two parameters on solar PV power output. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of weather variables and tilt angle on the output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Muntinlupa City, the Philippines. Three 120W monocrystalline solar PV panels were used and set up to three different tilt angles (i.e., 5°, 10°, and 15°). The fifth generation of the ECMWF's global climate and weather reanalysis (ERA5) dataset was used to gather hourly weather information such as surface solar radiation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, ambient temperature, and total precipitation. Three principal components (PC), which together account for 95% of the variability, were identified using principal components analysis (PCA), which was used to address multicollinearity among the weather parameters. To assess the effects of tilt angle, time, and PCs on solar PV production, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was carried out. Results show that all weather variables, except for wind speed and total precipitation, have a significant impact on solar PV production with configuration producing the best results. Moreover, a significant difference in mean solar PV production was observed among the three tilt angles. From 6:00 AM to 2:00 PM, solar PV output gradually increases and declines thereafter. Outputs this study can help in optimizing the design and configuration of solar PV systems in the Philippines by considering weather variables and module tilt angle. Lastly, this study provides useful information for system designers, installers, and policymakers in improving energy generation and utilization, encouraging the use of renewable energy sources, and advancing sustainable energy objectives.

A conceptual model for evaluating the stability of high-altitude ice-rich slopes through coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation

The collapse of glacial, permafrost, and ice-rich moraine slopes in high-altitude mountainous areas not only threatens downstream residents and infrastructure but also displaces ice mass to lower and warmer elevations, accelerating glacial ablation to some extent. Despite being considered rare, ice-rich slopes collapse more frequently than commonly thought due to climate change. For example, two adjacent mountain glaciers in the Aru Range of the Tibetan Plateau, characterized by large volumes (68 × 106 m3 and 83 × 106 m3, respectively) and low surface slope angles (12.3° and 12.9°, respectively), collapsed surprisingly in 2016. While the mechanisms behind these collapses have garnered broad attention, the ability to quantitatively assess the instability of ice-rich slopes remains limited due to the complex interplay of multi-physical processes. Taking the Aru glacier collapses as reference cases, this paper presents a conceptual model, implemented through coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical simulation, to evaluate the stability of high-altitude ice-rich slopes due to climate change, rainfall and ice ablation. Results indicate that the methodology captures the effects of temperature change, rainfall and meltwater on the instability events well, demonstrating promising potential in evaluating potential collapse zones of ice-rich slopes similar to the Aru glaciers. Furthermore, the role of climate change in the well-known Aru events is demonstrated using a state-of-the-art global climate reanalysis dataset. Findings reveal that the increase in liquid water infiltrating the Aru glaciers since 2010 was a critical factor leading to the instability events.

Improvement of Global Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Intensity by Spray Heat Flux and Surface Roughness

AbstractIn global forecasting systems, tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is usually underestimated, which is one of the major challenges for TC forecasting. One possible reason is the deficiency of physical parameterizations associated with ocean surface waves. To improve the TC intensity forecast, effects of two powerful wave‐related processes, the spray‐mediated heat flux and surface roughness, are considered in a global coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐wave system (CFSv2.0‐WW3). Serial 24 hr forecasting experiments for all TCs from May to October 2019 are conducted, and comparisons are made against the International Best Track TC data. The results show that for strong TCs the underestimation of TC intensity in CFSv2.0‐WW3 is significantly improved by the modified surface roughness parameterization and the accelerated spray heat flux parameterization based on Gaussian Quadrature. For major hurricanes with initial wind speeds above 30 m/s, the error of TC maximum wind speed decreases by about 34.4%. To understand the associated dynamic and thermodynamic processes, a series of 120 hr simulations for major hurricane Hagibis is conducted. The effect of spray‐mediated heat flux accounts for 91.7% of the TC intensity improvement. The increased heat fluxes offset the negative contributions of vertical advection and ventilation, leading to enhanced entropy. The low‐level pressure is then decreased, resulting in enhanced convergence of absolute vorticity, which overpowers the negative effects of frictional dissipation and vertical momentum advection. The study indicates that the application of these two wave‐related parameterizations can potentially improve the global forecast and reanalysis of TC intensity.

Evaluation of ERA5 and CHIRPS rainfall estimates against observations across Ethiopia

Satellite-based precipitation estimates and global reanalysis products bear the promise of supporting the development of accurate and timely climate information for end users in sub-Sharan Africa. The accuracy of these global models, however, may be reduced in data-scarce regions and should be carefully evaluated. This study evaluates the performance of ERA5 reanalysis data and CHIRPS precipitation data against ground-based measurements from 167 rain gauges in Ethiopia, a region with complex topography and diverse climates. Focusing over a 38-year period (1981–2018), our study utilizes a point-to-pixel analysis to compare daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation data, conducting an evaluation based on continuous and categorical metrics. Our findings indicate that over Ethiopia CHIRPS generally outperforms ERA5, particularly in high-altitude areas, demonstrating a better capability in detecting high-intensity rainfall events. Both datasets, however, exhibit lower performance in Ethiopia's lowland regions, possibly the influence of sparse rain gauge networks informing gridded datasets. Notably, both CHIRPS and ERA5 were found to underestimate rainfall variability, with CHIRPS displaying a slight advantage in representing the erratic nature of Ethiopian rainfall. The study’s results highlight considerable performance differences between CHIRPS and ERA5 across varying Ethiopian landscapes and climatic conditions. CHIRPS’ effectiveness in high-altitude regions, especially for daily rainfall estimation, emphasizes its suitability in similar geographic contexts. Conversely, the lesser performance of ERA5 in these areas suggests a need for refined calibration and validation processes, particularly for complex terrains. These insights are essential for the application of satellite-based and reanalysis of rainfall data in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological contexts, particularly in topographically and climatically diverse regions.

A statistical method for the attribution of change‐points in segmented Integrated Water Vapor difference time series

AbstractMany segmentation or change‐point detection methods for homogenizing climate time series compare candidate station data with reference data to eliminate common climate signals and more efficiently detect spurious, non‐climatic changes. One drawback is that it is difficult to decide whether the detected change‐point is due to the candidate series or to the reference. A so‐called attribution procedure is typically applied in a post‐processing step for each detected change‐point. This article describes a new statistical method for the attribution of change‐points detected in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) minus reanalysis series of integrated water vapour. It requires at least one nearby station with similar GNSS and reanalysis data. Six series of differences are formed from the four base series (BS) and are tested for a significant jump at the time of the change‐point detected in the candidate station. The six test results are analysed with a statistical predictive rule to attribute the change‐point to one, or several, of the four BS. Original aspects of our method are: (1) the significance test, which is based on a generalized linear regression approach, taking both heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation into account; (2) the predictive rule, which uses a machine learning method and is constructed from the test results obtained with the real data by using a resampling strategy. Four popular machine learning methods have been compared using cross‐validation and the best one was applied to a real data set (49 main stations with 114 change‐points). The results depend on the choice of the test significance level and the aggregation method combining the prediction results when several nearby stations are available. We find that 62% of the change‐points are attributed to GNSS, 19% to the reanalysis, and 10% are due to coincident detections.

Thermodynamic and cloud evolution in a cold-air outbreak during HALO-(AC)3: quasi-Lagrangian observations compared to the ERA5 and CARRA reanalyses

Abstract. Arctic air masses undergo intense transformations when moving southward from closed sea ice to warmer open waters in marine cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). Due to the lack of measurements of diabatic heating and moisture uptake rates along CAO flows, studies often depend on atmospheric reanalysis output. However, the uncertainties connected to those datasets remain unclear. Here, we present height-resolved airborne observations of diabatic heating, moisture uptake, and cloud evolution measured in a quasi-Lagrangian manner. The investigated CAO was observed on 1 April 2022 during the HALO-(AC)3 campaign. Shortly after passing the sea-ice edge, maximum diabatic heating rates over 6 K h−1 and moisture uptake over 0.3 gkg-1h-1 were measured near the surface. Clouds started forming and vertical mixing within the deepening boundary layer intensified. The quasi-Lagrangian observations are compared with the fifth-generation global reanalysis (ERA5) and the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis (CARRA). Compared to these observations, the mean absolute errors of ERA5 versus CARRA data are 14 % higher for air temperature over sea ice (1.14 K versus 1.00 K) and 62 % higher for specific humidity over ice-free ocean (0.112 g kg−1 versus 0.069 g kg−1). We relate these differences to issues with the representation of the marginal ice zone and corresponding surface fluxes in ERA5, as well as the cloud scheme producing excess liquid-bearing, precipitating clouds, which causes a too-dry marine boundary layer. CARRA's high spatial resolution and demonstrated higher fidelity towards observations make it a promising candidate for further studies on Arctic air mass transformations.

Empirical Models of foF2 and hmF2 Reconstituted by Global Ionosonde and Reanalysis Data and COSMIC Observations

AbstractThe F2‐peak plasma frequency (foF2) and the height of the F2 peak (hmF2) are two of the most important parameters for any ionospheric model, as well as radio propagation studies and applications. In this study, we have developed empirical models to capture the most significant variations of foF2 and hmF2. The derived empirical models (referred to as the USTC models within this study) are specified through global ionosonde and reanalysis data based on the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) Consultative Committee on International Radio (CCIR) method and Constellation Observindg System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations based on the empirical orthogonal function analysis, respectively. The USTC models are validated against the IRI CCIR model prediction. The comparison results revealed that the empirical foF2 model performs better in capturing the foF2 variations than the IRI CCIR model, which can overcome the underestimation of the IRI CCIR model at low latitudes. Although the IRI CCIR model overestimation at middle latitudes is addressed by the empirical hmF2 model, the visible differences between the model predictions and ionosonde observations still exist at low latitudes, which could be attributed to the significant difference between COSMIC and ionosonde hmF2 measures.