Understanding the association between global forest fire products and hydrometeorological variables

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have influenced the frequency and magnitude of forest fires both globally and regionally. While skilful short- to extended-range prediction of forest fires is essential for effective mitigation in local communities, it is also important to identify the implications of forest fires on different sectors, including water resources and sustainable development. Limited studies have investigated the association between forest fires and hydrometeorological variables at the regional scale in developing countries due to the lack of necessary datasets, which can now be leveraged using the newly hosted global reanalysis of fire danger indices (referred to as fire indices). The current study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variations of eight fire indices across India, as well as their association with hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and the streamflow of a major river basin (Mahanadi) in India. The accuracy of these indices in capturing real fire events and the potential benefit of incorporating fire indices into long-term hydrologic simulations are also explored. The results show that fire indices can accurately yield fire seasons (i.e., post-monsoon and summer) in India. Furthermore, forest fires are found to be strongly associated with hydro-meteorological variables, typically resulting in low streamflow regimes. Fire indices can also capture actual fire events, maintaining high scalar accuracy. Finally, an improvement in uncalibrated hydrologic model simulations is observed when simulated streamflow is post-processed using the fire indices as predictors. Overall, the current study has valuable implications for fire indices forecasting and hydrologic simulations in ungauged basins.