Reconstructing long-term natural flows by ensemble machine learning

Abstract

Large-scale human activities have caused significant disruption to the natural flow regime of rivers worldwide, leading to substantial deviations from river flows’ natural state. The natural hydrological regime of rivers holds great significance for the conservation and management of riverine ecosystems, which relies on the accurate reconstruction of natural river flows. However, the application of existing high spatiotemporal resolution large-scale natural flow datasets at the regional scale has not been adequately assessed, thereby limiting their regional-scale utility. In this study, utilizing global reanalysis datasets and observation data, in combination with ensemble machine learning models, we constructed long-term natural flow time series for inflows into the Pearl River Delta and evaluated the performance of these reconstructed inflows based on observed flow records during undisturbed periods. The reconstruction shows that the ensemble model, the AutoGluon model, indicates the best performance when compared with other machine learning models and outperforms the existing publicly available large-scale datasets in terms of evaluation metrics for the corresponding natural flows. The results of Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration and Range of Variability Analysis (IHA-RVA) indicate that climate variability, reservoir regulation and human activities have significantly altered the natural flow regime of the Pearl River Delta. Specifically, human activities generally tend to smooth natural flow variability in the Pearl River Delta. This research is expected to provide an efficient and reliable method for reconstructing natural flows and offers guidance for water resource management and ecosystem conservation.