Global Land Use Research Articles

Flammable futures—storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia

Abstract Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must consider the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area, agricultural production losses, and land use decisions, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw significant (>5%) production losses of palm oil. We explored analogous events under three warming conditions and two storylines (multi-model ensemble mean climate change and high impact). We employed a model chain consisting of CMIP6 climate modeling to quantify climate change impacts, a wildfire climate impacts and adaptation model (FLAM) to predict burned areas, and the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to predict resultant production losses and socio-economic consequences in the oil palm sector in Indonesia and, by extension, the EU. FLAM is a mechanistic fire model used to reproduce and project wildfires based on various criteria and input variables; GLOBIOM is a global economic land use model, which assesses land use competition and provides economic impacts based on scenario data. We found that total burned area and production loss can increase by up to 25% and lead to local price increases up to 70%, with only minor differences beyond 2.5 degrees of warming. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interactions of future warming, drought conditions, and extreme weather events when predicting their impacts on oil palm losses and burned area. This study sets the stage for further exploration on the impacts of land management policies on local and international environments and economies in the context of global warming.

An integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of blue water and green water under changing environmental conditions

Due to the impact of global climate change and land use changes, the spatiotemporal distribution and water cycle processes of watershed water resources are affected. In order to sustainably manage watershed water resources, it is necessary to accurately assess the available water volume to meet the coordinated management of the watershed's socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem. The amount of Bluewater resources (BW) is closely related to the amount of Greenwater resources (GW). BW is directly related to human consumption in the socio-economic subsystem, while GW is used to maintain the health of the ecosystem. A method called the integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) was developed to evaluate adaptive strategies for dealing with the combined effects of climate change and land-use changes. ISOMS not only predicts future hydrological trends under varying environmental conditions but also generates comprehensive risk management plans that incorporate different types of uncertainties, including random and fuzzy factors. The Copula function is introduced to handle the interaction between available BW and available GW. The results showed that: (i) uncertainties in the hydrologic system could result in alterations to the distribution of water resources; (ii) system benefits are, to some extent, affected by land use change and climate change; (iii) the shortage of BW is affected by the level of risk, and the joint risk increases, resulting in an increase in water scarcity; (iv) the planned annual agricultural water consumption is the highest, followed by domestic water consumption, and industrial water consumption is the lowest. Through the results of the model operation, the joint risk assessment and adaptive management of BW and GW in the East River Basin (ERB) under changing environments, as well as the BW allocation plan, are obtained to provide support for scientific and reasonable resource collaborative decision-making and promote the synchronized advancement of the socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem in the ERB.

Advances in global land use systems development and sustainability: A bibliometric analysis

Advances in global land use systems development and sustainability: A bibliometric analysis

Negotiating biophysical limits in the European Union’s bioeconomy: a critical analysis of two conflicts over regulating biomass use in EU policy

AbstractThe bioeconomy seeks to replace fossil fuels with biomass in various products and industrial sectors. The dominant political bioeconomy project focuses on economic growth and aims to increase biomass demand in the EU. This can exacerbate global land use competition and pressures on ecosystems. However, this project does not consider reducing resource use to tackle biophysical limits. Technological innovations are the means for ensuring sustainability. Few social scientific studies have investigated how actors reproduce or question the dominant bioeconomy project. We contribute to this research gap by using critical policy analysis. We explore how actors address biophysical limits and assert their positions and strategies in policy conflicts stemming from the EU bioeconomy strategy. We thereby identified two central conflicts: regulating bio-based plastics and the cascading use of biomass. Our analysis included position papers, policy documents, and expert interviews. We grouped the actors based on their positions and strategies into three political bioeconomy projects. Thus, in addition to the dominant growth-oriented project, we identified a circular and sufficiency-oriented one. Our analysis indicates that these alternative projects influenced bio-based plastics and bioenergy policies to acknowledge biophysical limits. EU policy even provides measures to reduce plastic use. Nevertheless, the Renewable Energy Directive's approach to cascading use reflects a compromise with the growth-oriented project that might not cap using primary biomass for energy. Overall, we demonstrate that there are potential alliances in promoting alternatives to the dominant bioeconomy project. Setting clear limits is constrained by powerful interests advocating for a growth-oriented bioeconomy.

Enhanced large-scale building extraction evaluation: developing a two-level framework using proxy data and building matching

ABSTRACT Deep learning-based building extraction methods have widespread applications in diverse fields. However, the evaluation of large-scale extraction results remains challenging, due to traditional evaluation metrics rely on manually created ground-truth samples and the lack of comprehensive reference-building data for developing countries. To address these problems, we proposed a two-level framework for evaluating large-scale footprint extraction. First, we utilised global open-source population and land use data as the proxy data, to assess grid-level completeness for the areas with insufficient reference data. Second, we introduced an improved two-way area-overlapping method to match the extracted footprints with the reference buildings, thereby enabling a comprehensive evaluation of the study region. Tested in Hyogo Prefecture and Numazu City, Japan, the results demonstrated a 2.6-% improvement in grid classification accuracy and an increase of 0.53 in the completeness correlation, compared with the results obtained using a single proxy indicator. Moreover, the optimised matching method achieved an outstanding semantic matching accuracy of 99%, with high efficiency and robustness in multi-scale matching. Therefore, the proposed approach can effectively evaluate large-scale footprint extraction results and interpret their semantic relationship with actual buildings, applicable globally regardless of the availability of reference building datasets.

Responses of precipitation and water vapor budget on the Chinese Loess Plateau to global land cover change forcing

There have been notable changes in precipitation patterns on the Loess Plateau (LP) of China in recent decades, and numerous attribution studies have focused on sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation changes induced by aerosols and greenhouse gases emission. However, the influences of global land use and land cover change (LULCC) as an important forcing factor in the climate system on regional precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, we quantified the impacts of LULCC on precipitation and the water vapor budget in the LP region, utilizing data from LULCC forcing experiments conducted by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Although global LULCC forcing exerted a negative effect on long-term mean precipitation on the LP region from 1850 to 2014, the different response characteristics were detected during different time periods. The global LULCC caused a decrease of 14 mm in annual precipitation during the period of 1850–1960. Conversely, from 1961 to 2014, it led to an increase of 6.4 mm, which is largely attributed to the enhanced water vapor transport along the southern boundary and westerly belt of the LP region. Moreover, from the perspective of the net water vapor balance of the entire LP, although LULCC caused net water vapor export during both periods 1850–1960 and 1961–2014, the export during the latter period (0.20 × 104 kg s−1) was smaller than that during the former period (0.28 × 104 kg s−1), indicating that the global expansion of grassland and cropland, along with the continuous rise in the leaf area index from 1961 to 2014, contributed to retaining more water vapor within the LP, which in turn was more favorable for precipitation. These findings provide valuable insights into the reasons behind precipitation variations in the LP region, emphasizing that global vegetation restoration and greening play a significant role in improving precipitation in ecologically fragile areas.

What were the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global land use carbon emission efficiency? A case study of the 136 countries

Nations worldwide must collaborate to tackle the challenge of improving carbon emission efficiency and optimizing land use effectively. This study extends the study area from provinces and cities, regional city clusters, and countries to 136 major countries in the world, and shows the differences between countries. The paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of land use carbon emission efficiency (LCEE) in these 136 countries from 2000 to 2019 using the super-efficiency slacks-based measure data envelopment analysis (Super-SBM DEA) model, global malmquist index, spatial autocorrelation measurement tools and Spatial Durbin model. It can help to promote low-carbon and green development while simultaneously improving the global LCEE. The findings indicate that: (1) Over the study period, there is a trend toward a decline in the LCEE worldwide. (2) The primary cause of the worldwide LCEE’s declining trend during the study period is the reduction in technical efficiency. (3) The low-low cluster type accounts for more, while the high-high agglomeration type accounts for less and exhibits a sluggish growth pattern. On the whole, there is a phenomenon of non-aggregation and non-uniformity. It is necessary to increase the driving effect of high-high cluster radiation. (4) Economic development level, investment level, population size, public service level and environmental sustainability level all have a significant impact on LCEE, while industrial development level has no significant impact on LCEE. From a global perspective, the radiation driving role of countries with high LCEE should be increased. Improve the efficiency and technological level of land use emission in light of local conditions, and promote independent innovation in green and low-carbon technologies. This is conducive to the establishment of long-term low-carbon growth.

Biogeographic isolation and climate shape the evolutionary heritage of Neotropical inselbergs

AbstractAimQuaternary climatic shifts can explain the current distribution of ancient ecosystems as well as the current distributions of gradients that hold species richness and diversity of several lineages in old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes (OCBILs) as inselbergs. Thus, the combination of phylogenetic approaches and temporal landscape connectivity allows disentangling the mechanisms involved in the origin of the disjunct distribution of plant species and the evolutionary heritage of Neotropical inselbergs.LocationBrazilian Atlantic Forest and Caatinga.Time PeriodPliocene until the current period.Major TaxaAngiosperms.MethodsWe used a compiled data set of 42 inselbergs across the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga biomes in eastern Brazil to describe their structure and phylogenetic diversity and map the landscape resistance distances and the effects of resistance on their phylogenetic beta diversity. We also aimed to identify the effectiveness of protected areas and gaps in the conservation of plant species in Brazilian inselbergs.ResultsWe found evidence of dispersal limitation in the inselberg species pool and a latitudinal gradient in plant species richness and phylogenetic diversity across the Neotropical inselberg landscape, with greater isolation between the northeastern and southeastern core areas. Our findings indicate that inselbergs can lead to a high turnover of phylogenetic diversity, thus imposing distinctiveness on the evolutionary lineages of the inselberg flora.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that the current distribution of inselberg's flora in isolated ecosystems may result from a more connected distribution of this flora in the past, as postulated by the Pleistocene habitat fluctuations. However, the patterns of diversity have probably been influenced by events much older than Quaternary climate shifts, due to inselbergs climate stability areas (refugia) since ancient periods. Conservation of mountain vegetation is a crucial strategy for maintaining biodiversity and distinct phylogenetic lineages in the current rapid global climate and land use change scenario.

Light grazing reduces the abundance of carbon cycling functional genes by decreasing oligotrophs microbes in desert steppe

Understanding the functional genes of microorganisms involved in carbon cycling processes can link microbial community structure to potential ecological functions. However, the effects of grazing on the relationship between carbon cycling functional genes and soil environment need to be further investigated as a global land use activity. A replicated sheep grazing platform was established in Northern China in 2004 with four different stocking rates: no grazing (0 sheep ha−1 month−1), light grazing (0.15 sheep ha−1 month−1), moderate grazing (0.30 sheep ha−1 month−1), and heavy grazing (0.45 sheep ha−1 month−1). To examine the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on microbial species and functional gene abundance, we collected soil samples after 17 years of grazing analyzed for the abundance of microbial communities, the abundance of carbon function genes, plant carbon input and soil environmental factors. We found that light grazing reduced carbon cycling functional genes compared to no grazing (fencing). With increasing grazing intensity, the absolute abundance of functional genes increased. Changes in microbial species abundance were mainly responsible for the changes in the structure of carbon cycling functional genes. Our results emphasize that elucidating how grazing affects the carbon cycling functional genes through the effects of plant carbon inputs and the environment, and the interactions between them, will provide important information for understanding carbon cycling processes in grassland ecosystems.

Life cycle assessment of food consumption in different cities: Analysis of socioeconomic level and environmental hotspots

This study presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment of the environmental impacts of dietary patterns in different cities, focusing on the correlation between food consumption and environmental impact. The functional unit was the food required to meet one person's yearly needs (1 Inh/year). To determine the quantity and type of food consumed, as well as the income level of the residents, 523 surveys were conducted in households in four cities in Chile (Iquique, Santiago, Temuco, and Coyhaique). Survey data were complemented with secondary information from national statistics and the Ecoinvent database. The environmental impact assessment was carried out using SimaPro, selecting the categories of global warming, terrestrial acidification, terrestrial ecotoxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, land use, and fossil resource scarcity. The results show that higher-income households generate greater environmental impacts attributed to higher per capita food consumption. In the global warming category, the environmental impact can range from 1.08 kg CO2 eq/inh/year for the first quintile to 2.15 kg CO2 eq/inh/year for the fifth quintile in Santiago. In this category, the impacts in the highest quintiles can be up to 2.2 times greater than those in the lowest quintiles. Similarly, in acidification, this difference can reach 2.3 times. In the freshwater eutrophication category, the highest-income quintiles can double the environmental impacts compared to the lowest (I and II), mainly due to higher consumption of red meat and dairy products. The food production stage was the environmental hotspot across all evaluated impact categories, accounting for 45%–60% of the impacts in global warming, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and fossil resource scarcity; 74%–78% in terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, and land use; and 68%–71% in freshwater ecotoxicity. Meat was pinpointed as the primary environmental hotspot in global warming (44%), terrestrial acidification (56%), freshwater eutrophication (50%), land use (35%), and fossil resource scarcity (30%). Conversely, cereals are the primary environmental hotspot in terrestrial ecotoxicity (30%) and vegetables in freshwater ecotoxicity (18%). The geographical location of cities also influenced the environmental impacts of food consumption, primarily due to the types of available foods in regions near each city. Food availability conditions, diets, and quantities consumed, thus influencing environmental impacts. Finally, household incomes, the geographical location of cities, and the food production systems in each city determine the environmental impacts of food consumption. Different configurations of these variables create unique environmental impact profiles for each city. Despite this, typical environmental hotspots in food consumption were identified across all cities, enabling the implementation of strategies to minimize environmental impacts on a national scale. Thus, circular economy strategies linked to food production systems, as well as food loss and waste, could significantly reduce environmental impacts, presenting an intriguing opportunity for future research in this field.

Accuracy Assessment and Comparison of National, European and Global Land Use Land Cover Maps at the National Scale—Case Study: Portugal

The free availability of Sentinel-1 and 2 imageries enables the production of high resolution (10 m) global Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps by a wide range of institutions, which often make them publicly available. This raises several issues: Which map should be used for each type of application? How accurate are these maps? What is the level of agreement between them? This motivated us to assess the thematic accuracy of six LULC maps for continental Portugal with 10 m spatial resolution with reference dates between 2017 and 2020, using the same method and the same reference database, in a bid to make the results comparable. The overall accuracy and the per class user’s and producer’s accuracy are compared with the ones reported by the map producers, at the national, European, or global level, according to their availability. The nomenclatures of the several maps were then analyzed and compared to generate a harmonized nomenclature to which all maps were converted into. The harmonized products were compared directly with a visual analysis and the proportion of regions equally classified was computed, as well as the area assigned per product to each class. The accuracy of these harmonized maps was also assessed considering the previously used reference database. The results show that there are significant differences in the overall accuracy of the original products, varying between 42% and 72%. The differences between the user’s and producer’s accuracy per class are very large for all maps. When comparing the obtained results with the ones reported by the map producers for Portugal, Europe or globally (depending on what is available) the results obtained in this study have lower accuracy metrics values for all maps. The comparison of the harmonized maps shows that they agree in 83% of the study area, but there are differences in terms of detail and area of the classes, mainly for the class “Built up” and “Bare land”.

Forecasting urban futures: Evaluating global land use data sensitivity for regional growth simulation in the Ruhr Metropolitan Area

In recent years, numerous multitemporal global land use and land cover products have been published acting as valuable source for training spatially explicit geosimulation models forecasting urban growth. However, there is a notable gap in research that specifically addresses the sensitivity of models traing with those data sets when it comes to regional modeling purposes. Accordingly, the objectives of this study were to calibrate, validate, and employ global urban input datasets for the regional simulation of urban growth by the year 2030. The SLEUTH urban growth model, focused on the metropolitan area of the Ruhr, Germany, was calibrated using the Global Human Settlement Layer, World Settlement Footprint Evolution, historical OpenStreetMap data, and a Digital Land Cover Model for Germany. The goal was to compare the results in terms of accuracy, certainty, quantity, and allocation, particularly in urban areas susceptible to floods and heat. While all models achieved high accuracy levels concerning quantity and allocation, the extent of new settlements varied from 40.77 km2 to 477.91 km2. The models based on World Settlement Footprint and OpenStreetMap exhibited higher certainty and lower stochasticity. As the simulated urban growth increased, there was a corresponding rise in the likelihood of allocating new settlements in areas affected by natural hazards. While all models presented a similar relative portion of new settlement areas impacted by floods, variations emerged in terms of areas affected by unfavorable thermal conditions. This study underscored the potential use of historical OpenStreetMap data in training cellular automation for geosimulating future settlement growth. Furthermore, it highlighted the applicability of global Earth observation-based urban datasets for regional geosimulation and explored the impacts of diverse input data on the accuracy, certainty, quantity, and allocation performances in simulating future conditions.

Exploring tradeoffs among diet quality and environmental impacts in self-selected diets: a population-based study.

Proposed sustainable diets often deviate dramatically from currently consumed diets, excluding or drastically reducing entire food groups. Moreover, their environmental sustainability tends to be measured only in terms of greenhouse gases emissions. The aim of this study was to overcome these limitations and identify a cluster of already adopted, relatively healthy diets with substantially lower environmental impacts than the average diet. We also aimed to estimate the reduction in multiple environmental impacts that could be achieved by shifting to this diet cluster and highlight possible tradeoffs among environmental impacts. The diet clusters were identified by applying energy-adjusted multiple factor analysis and hierarchical clustering to the dietary data of the National FinHealth 2017 Study (n = 5125) harmonized with life cycle assessment data on food products from Agribalyse 3.0 and Agri-Footprint using nutrient intakes and global warming potential, land use, and eutrophication of marine and freshwater systems as the active variables. We identified five diet clusters, none of which had the highest overall diet quality and lowest impact for all four environmental indicators. One cluster, including twenty percent of the individuals in the sample was identified asa "best compromise" diet with the highest diet quality and the second lowest environmental impacts of all clusters, except for freshwater eutrophication. The cluster did not exclude any food groups, but included more fruits, vegetables, and fish and less of all other animal-source foods than average. Shifting to this cluster diet could raise diet quality while achieving significant reductions in most but not all environmental impacts. There are tradeoffs among the environmental impacts of diets. Thus, future dietary analyses should consider multiple sustainability indicators simultaneously. Cluster analysis is a useful tool to help design tailored, socio-culturally acceptable dietary transition paths towards high diet quality and lower environmental impact.

Constructing an Antibiotic-Free Protein Expression System for Ovalbumin Biosynthesis in Probiotic Escherichia coli Nissle 1917.

Ovalbumin (OVA) is the principal protein constituent of eggs. As an alternative to eggs, cell-cultured OVA can reduce the environmental impact of global warming and land use. Escherichia coli Nissle 1917 (EcN), a probiotic with specific endogenous cryptic plasmids that stably exist in cells without the addition of antibiotics, was chosen as the host for the efficient heterologous expression of the OVA. OVA yield reached 20 mg·L-1 in shake flasks using the OVA expression cassette containing a tac promoter (Ptac) upstream of the OVA-coding sequences on the endogenous plasmid pMUT2. Subsequently, we improved the level of the expression of the OVA by employing a dual promoter (PP5 combined with Ptac via a sigma factor binding site 24) and ribosome binding site (RBS) substitution. These enhancements increased the level of production of OVA in shake flasks to 30 and 42 mg·L-1, respectively. OVA by EcNP-P28 harboring plasmid L28 equipped with both dual promoter and the strong RBS8 reached 3.70 g·L-1 in a 3 L bioreactor. Recombinant OVA and natural OVA showed similar biochemical characteristics, including secondary structure, isoelectric point, amino acid composition, and thermal stability. This is currently the highest OVA production reported among prokaryotes. We successfully constructed an antibiotic-free heterologous protein expression system for EcN.

Environmental impact assessment of direct lithium extraction from brine resources: Global warming potential, land use, water consumption, and charting sustainable scenarios

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) has emerged as an alternative that bypasses lengthy evaporation processes to produce lithium from brine sources. This study scrutinizes both direct and indirect environmental impacts of DLE, specifically focusing on global warming, land use, and water consumption in Clayton Valley, Nevada. It was compared to traditional brine and hard rock extraction methods. The DLE method is closely tied to energy usage, and this study has explored various scenarios for power sources. The TRACI, ReCiPe, and AWARE methods of life cycle assessment were employed to evaluate the environmental footprint, indirect land use, and water footprint of lithium production from various sources. According to the study, producing one ton of lithium carbonate using the DLE method showed distinct emissions profiles. Specifically, when electricity was sourced from a diesel generator, the Nevada grid, or solar panels, the emissions totaled approximately 22, 17.3, and 7.6 tons of CO2eq, respectively. Switching power sources goes beyond affecting greenhouse gas emissions; it also influences land use impacts and individual water consumption, as evaluated in this study. The direct land use for DLE is as follows: 16, 493, 182, and 659 m²/ton of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) for processing plant, processing plant, well field, processing plant, solar panel area, and all regions required with solar panels, respectively. In assessing the water footprint, the study determined varying water deprivation potentials depending on the electricity source utilized: 3.7 m³eq/kg of LCE with a diesel generator, 9.5 m³eq/kg of LCE with the Nevada grid, and 4.2 m³eq/kg of LCE with solar panels.

Assessment of Ecological Flow in Hulan River Basin Utilizing SWAT Model and Diverse Hydrological Approaches

Human activities have significantly altered the hydrological processes of rivers. In recent years, the increased focus on global water resource exploitation and land use changes has heightened the significance of related ecological and environmental issues. To investigate the land use changes in Hulan River Basin between 1980 and 2020, and the corresponding flow under various ecological standards, a quantitative assessment of land use changes in Hulan River Basin was conducted by analyzing the Land Use Dynamic Degree (LUD) index and the land use change matrix. Two types of models, namely natural runoff models and status quo runoff models, were developed to evaluate alterations in basin runoff. Various hydrological techniques were utilized to calculate the ecological water deficit in Hulan River Basin. The results suggest the following: (1) human consumption comprises approximately 40% of surface water resources, with Hulan River Basin exhibiting a moderate consumption level; (2) when determining the minimum ecological flow, the Distribution Flow Method (DFM) method yielded slightly higher outcomes compared to alternative methodologies; both the variable Q90 method and DFM (Q2) method satisfy 10% of the natural river flow, however, in terms of capturing the hydrological pattern, DFM exhibits a slightly lower fitting degree compared to the variable Q90 (monthly average flow with 90% guarantee rate) method; (3) DFM is identified as scientifically reasonable for determining the most suitable ecological flow in comparison to other hydrological methods; (4) despite the widespread water scarcity in Hulan River Basin, the variance between most periods and the ideal ecological flow remains minimal, indicating that severe water shortages are uncommon.

Greater ecophysiological stress tolerance in the core environment than in extreme environments of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum)

Global climate change and land use change underlie a need to develop new crop breeding strategies, and crop wild relatives (CWR) have become an important potential source of new genetic material to improve breeding efforts. Many recent approaches assume adaptive trait variation increases towards the relative environmental extremes of a species range, potentially missing valuable trait variation in more moderate or typical climates. Here, we leveraged distinct genotypes of wild chickpea (Cicer reticulatum) that differ in their relative climates from moderate to more extreme and perform targeted assessments of drought and heat tolerance. We found significance variation in ecophysiological function and stress tolerance between genotypes but contrary to expectations and current paradigms, it was individuals from more moderate climates that exhibited greater capacity for stress tolerance than individuals from warmer and drier climates. These results indicate that wild germplasm collection efforts to identify adaptive variation should include the full range of environmental conditions and habitats instead of only environmental extremes, and that doing so may significantly enhance the success of breeding programs broadly.

Subsidizing extensive cattle production in the European Union has major implications for global agricultural trade and climate change

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10.The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO2-eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO2-eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO2-eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries.

Haiti’s Tree Angels

Haiti has been 97% deforested by Europeans and American businesses for profit. Britannica defines deforestation is defined as the clearing and removal of trees by humans. Deforestation ranks as the largest issue in global land use, historically for agriculture use, fuel, manufacturing, and construction. However, Haiti’s deforestation resulted in the lumber from the trees being exported and nothing being imported or built to replace the trees. Consequently, the ground in Haiti where the trees have been removed has lost its ability to sustain the impact of earthquakes and floods. As such, homes are destroyed and people are displaced following these natural disasters. The aim of Tree Angels for Haiti (TAFH) is to reforest Haiti by planting one tree at a time.

Coupling analysis of land use change with landscape ecological risk in China: A multi-scenario simulation perspective

The continuous change of global land use and intense human activities lead to the constant change of landscape ecological risk (LER). The increase of LER will pose a serious threat to human welfare and sustainable development. In previous studies, there were few studies on coupling coordination between land use intensity (LUI) and LER in multi-scenario simulation. Therefore, it is of a certain significance to study the coupling and coordination relationship between LUI and LER in a long-term multi-scenario simulation in the future for the sustainable use of land resources and the management of ecological risk. Based on the multi-scenario land use simulation data of China in 2010, 2050, and 2100, this study selects the comprehensive index of land use intensity, landscape pattern index, spatial autocorrelation, and coupling coordination methods to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUI and LER from 2010 to 2100, as well as the coupling coordination relationship between them. The results show that the overall LUI of China remains stable at around 200 from 2010 to 2100, with a spatial distribution that is “low in the northwest and high in the southeast.” The LUI of China decreases under the balanced resources scenario and global environmental protection scenario, while the regional economic development scenario and regional environmental protection scenario exhibit an increasing trend. The overall LER in China is approximately 0.150, with a spatial distribution that is “high in the north and low in the south.” The four scenarios exhibit a downward trend from 2010 to 2100. There is significant spatial dependence between LUI and LER in China, with the largest number of counties exhibiting reluctant coordination between the two (accounting for nearly 45%), while their interaction and mutual influence remain strong. Thus, this study may contribute to understanding this relationship and to creating effective landscape ecological risk management policies.