Coupling analysis of land use change with landscape ecological risk in China: A multi-scenario simulation perspective

Abstract

The continuous change of global land use and intense human activities lead to the constant change of landscape ecological risk (LER). The increase of LER will pose a serious threat to human welfare and sustainable development. In previous studies, there were few studies on coupling coordination between land use intensity (LUI) and LER in multi-scenario simulation. Therefore, it is of a certain significance to study the coupling and coordination relationship between LUI and LER in a long-term multi-scenario simulation in the future for the sustainable use of land resources and the management of ecological risk. Based on the multi-scenario land use simulation data of China in 2010, 2050, and 2100, this study selects the comprehensive index of land use intensity, landscape pattern index, spatial autocorrelation, and coupling coordination methods to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of LUI and LER from 2010 to 2100, as well as the coupling coordination relationship between them. The results show that the overall LUI of China remains stable at around 200 from 2010 to 2100, with a spatial distribution that is “low in the northwest and high in the southeast.” The LUI of China decreases under the balanced resources scenario and global environmental protection scenario, while the regional economic development scenario and regional environmental protection scenario exhibit an increasing trend. The overall LER in China is approximately 0.150, with a spatial distribution that is “high in the north and low in the south.” The four scenarios exhibit a downward trend from 2010 to 2100. There is significant spatial dependence between LUI and LER in China, with the largest number of counties exhibiting reluctant coordination between the two (accounting for nearly 45%), while their interaction and mutual influence remain strong. Thus, this study may contribute to understanding this relationship and to creating effective landscape ecological risk management policies.