Global Economic Slowdown Research Articles

Does US financial uncertainty spill over through the (asymmetric) international credit channel? The role of market expectations

We show that the international credit channel is an important channel through which US financial uncertainty spills over internationally. Moreover, we find the asymmetric responses of domestic and international credit conditions to US financial uncertainty shocks, contingent upon market participants' expectations. During periods of pessimism regarding future economic conditions, the impact of US financial uncertainty on both domestic and international credit conditions intensifies significantly, leading to a severe global economic slowdown. Elevated US financial uncertainty disproportionately affects the left tails of the distribution more than the right tails, heightening the likelihood of negative global output growth. Conversely, in times of optimism, heightened US financial uncertainty exerts modest effects on international credit conditions and global economic conditions. Yet it stretches the conditional distribution substantially, signaling an increasingly uncertain future.

Mechanisms and effect assessment of smart city policy pilots on employment resilience: Empirical evidence based on 275 sample cities in China

In the context of a global economic slowdown and structural shifts, comprehending labor market stability is crucial for devising effective macro-employment strategies. This research introduces an innovative framework to analyze employment resilience in the wake of China's smart city pilot policy. Utilizing data from 275 prefecture-level cities across China, spanning 2008 to 2020, the study delves into the beneficial effects of the smart city pilot policy on employment resilience. It employs a dual approach, integrating the Differences-in-Differences method (DID) with robustness analysis. Findings indicate that employment resilience in smart city pilot cities is approximately 0.58% higher compared to non-pilot cities. Factors such as location, size, and city type exhibit varying influences on this outcome. The research further reveals that entrepreneurial activities significantly mediate the link between smart city policies and employment resilience. Additionally, the concentration of manufacturing and productive services, along with their interplay, demonstrates notable moderating effects. This investigation broadens the economic research scope regarding smart cities and offers fresh empirical insights into the labor market impacts of smart city pilot policies, serving as a valuable guide for policymakers in managing employment markets.

Breaking the financial bottleneck of local universities of China: an analysis of the current situation of university intellectual property

PurposeWith the global economic slowdown in 2023, most universities in the central and western regions of China may face the problem of shortage of government financial funding, which is directly related to the development of science and technology of the universities. With the support of the local government, most of the ordinary universities have shifted attention to the transfer and transformation of intellectual property based on school-enterprise cooperation, hoping to seek more commercialization income as an extra source of income. Therefore, this paper aimed to study the current situation of university intellectual property, i.e. the reserve and distribution of transferable patents, discipline distribution of patents, and regional cooperation of university patents.Design/methodology/approachA patent database of 10 key universities in Henan Province of China from 2012 to 2021 was established. The evaluation indicator model by the Entropy method was conducted to reveal the interaction mechanism between quantity indicators, quality indicators, and value indicators. Based on the data analysis, the development direction of the discipline construction and school-enterprise cooperation for local universities was clear.FindingsThe findings indicated that the number of patent applications from ten key universities in Henan Province has been increasing rapidly over the years. The trend for authorized invention patents has remained relatively stable. Compared with the patent applications and authorizations, the growth of transferable patents was notably slow. The significance of strategic layout of dominant disciplines and related high-value patents was not appreciated enough by Chinese government and universities. There was a large difference of dominant disciplines between 10 key universities, and the patent level of each university was directly proportional to the number of dominant disciplines. The university patent level heavily relied on the researchers' contributions and the distribution mechanism of scientific research resources within the university. Guangdong Province and the Yangtze River Delta of China, being economically developed regions, exhibited the most active engagement in patent technology cooperation. Conversely, the central and western regions displayed relatively lower participation in high-value patent research and development.Research limitations/implicationsThis study can provide a unique perspective to understand and solve the financial bottleneck problem of ordinary universities in the central and western regions of China. The discipline construction and school-enterprise cooperation are just one of the existing schemes, but it still cannot solve the financial problems faced by local universities in China towards the government.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study can serve as a foundation for further investigation into policies aimed at improving the financial problems of ordinary universities in the central and western regions of China.Originality/valueAs an important attempt, the study tried to focus the financial problem of universities in the central and western regions of China based on the evaluation of the current situation of university intellectual property. This research findings are of great value in finding optimal layout between university patents, disciplines and school-enterprise cooperation.

ANALISIS KEBANGKRUTAN SILICON VALLEY BANK TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM PT. BANK CENTRAL ASIA Tbk

This article explores the resilience of the banking sector in the face of rising interest rates and the global economic slowdown caused by the recent measures of the Federal Reserve System (The Fed). Based on quantitative data with descriptive analysis and data visualization, the results show that the banking sector remains strong despite the volatile stock market. Notably, Bank Central Asia (BBCA) shares show higher stability and lower risk than Silicon Valley Bank (SIVBQ) shares, which experienced significant fluctuations due to bankruptcy in March 2023. Investors tend to be more attracted to BBCA because of its stability. This study also emphasizes the importance of a thorough understanding of the internal and external factors that affect stock value, as well as the importance of prudence in investment selection to reduce the risk of loss. Future researchers are advised to expand the scope of the study by including data from more institutions and exploring other factors that affect stock performance.

A Journey of Retail banking in India

Retail banking serves as the most prominent interface between the banking sector and the general public. It encompasses the provision of a wide array of banking products and services specifically tailored for individual customers, typically for non-entrepreneurial purposes. These offerings span across both sides of the financial ledger, encompassing fixed, current, and savings accounts on the liability side, while on the asset side, it encompasses mortgages and various forms of loans (including personal, housing, automotive, and educational loans). Furthermore, retail banking extends to include services such as credit cards, depository services, and an array of supplementary para-banking products and services, including insurance products and capital market offerings, tailored to meet the diverse needs of individuals. In essence, retail banking represents a pivotal stage in the evolution of banking services. While this sector presents substantial opportunities for expansion, it is equally accompanied by formidable challenges. Stringent regulatory requirements aimed at safeguarding consumer interests, exposure to risks stemming from a global economic slowdown, and the ever-growing expectations of customers necessitate continual innovation by banks for sustained growth. This article delves into various facets of retail banking in India, with a primary focus on the challenges it faces and the most recent trends that shape its landscape.

Recession fears and stock markets: An application of directional wavelet coherence and a machine learning-based economic agent-determined Google fear index

Recession fears play a pivotal role in investment decision making and policy development aimed at reducing the likelihood of a recession and managing its impact. Using machine learning, we develop an economic agent-determined daily recession fear index using Google searches that isolates recession-related fears from overall stock market uncertainty. We study the evolving impact of recent recession fears on stock markets using directional wavelet coherence that distinguishes between positive and negative associations. Recession fears negatively impact world and G7 stock markets and trigger heightened volatility, with Japan being the most resilient. Monetary policy tightening in response to record inflation levels significantly contributes to persistent recession fears, suggesting that policymakers should consider co-ordinating responses to avoid an excessive global economic slowdown. Our methodology offers a high frequency monitoring tool that can be applied to analyse evolving relationships between variables and can be generalised to study the influence of specific events on financial markets by isolating topic-specific components from general proxies for uncertainty, attention or sentiment.

Digital Technology Increases the Sustainability of Cross-Border Agro-Food Supply Chains: A Review

The increasing prominence of climate change, geopolitical crises, and global economic slowdown highlights the challenges and structural deficiencies of traditional cross-border agro-food supply chains. As a result, there has been a growing consensus on the need to leverage digital technology to rebuild and innovate a safe, stable, and sustainable global food system. This study assessed the knowledge progress and development trends in the sustainable development of cross-border agro-food supply chains enabled by digital technology. A total of 352 authoritative papers from the core Web of Science database were selected for analysis. The Citespace tool was utilized to visually examine research elements. The findings reveal that research outcomes in this territory experienced a significant period of rapid growth, particularly after 2020. Sustainability and IEEE Access are the journals with the highest and second-highest number of publications. China and the France National Institute are the countries and research institutions with the largest number of publications in this field. The research hotspots are mainly the application of digital technologies, food safety, and supply chain system model innovation. In the past ten years, the research in this territory has gone through three stages: precise timeliness orientation, intelligent strategic decision-making orientation, and model predictability orientation. We further construct the ‘antecedent–practice–performance’ conceptual framework of the sustainability of the digital technology-enabled cross-border agro-food supply chain. Finally, this paper presents the potential research directions in this territory, focusing on four aspects: research method, research mechanism, research topic, and research frontier.

The effectiveness of dual regulation and synergistic governance of market-incentivized carbon reduction policies and public environmental supervision: a study based on the sustainable development performance of listed companies in China

IntroductionIn the current background of global economic slowdown, the traditional reliance on one regulatory instrument or the unilateral consideration of the effectiveness of one regulatory policy in policy formulation is no longer sufficient to cope with the increasingly complex contradictions between environmental protection and economic development. In the construction of a modernized environmental governance system, it has become an inevitable choice to achieve synergy between various environmental regulations. In China, the citizens' environmental supervision campaign that gradually emerged in 2006 and the local carbon trading pilots that started in 2013, as typical representatives of informal and formal environmental regulation respectively, provide vivid and realistic materials for our study.MethodsUsing econometric models and microdata from listed Chinese firms from 2009 to 2020, we analyze the profound logic and internal mechanism by which this synergistic governance effect of environmental regulation affects the economic society and the development pattern of firms.Results and discussionThe study found that: (1) the synergistic effect of the carbon trading policy and citizens' environmental supervision can significantly promote the transition of enterprises to a sustainable development model, especially paying attention to the role of citizens' environmental supervision in this process. (2) The regional development level, cost transfer capability, and political connection can make the synergy of the two environmental regulations vary across firms. (3) The synergistic effect of environmental regulation promotes the behavior of enterprises in line with the requirements of sustainable development by influencing enterprises' R&D and innovation investment, resource allocation efficiency, and sustainable development awareness. (4) A favorable regional rule of law environment and moderate media attention can effectively increase the intensity of citizens' environmental supervision, and at the same time strengthen the effectiveness of synergistic governance of environmental regulation in the transformation and development of enterprises.

Natural resource dependence and sustainable development policy: Insights from city-level analysis

Under the unprecedented negative impacts of global economic slowdown and environmental deterioration, the question of how to turn the “natural resource curse” into the “natural resource blessing” has become a major emerging issue. This study estimates how a dynamically implemented sustainable development policy can break down the natural resource curse in 283 Chinese cities from 2009 to 2019, with the time-varying difference-in-differences model adopted. The findings indicate that: (1) As for the pilot cities, this sustainable development policy can reduce their natural resource dependence by 30.81% at the 1% significance level, with the overall policy effect being more evident among resource-based and industry-based cities. (2) Cities can employ green patent output as an effective mechanism to enhance policy-stimulating effects on natural resource dependence, among which green utility patent output works better. (3) Cities in multi-regional-level urban agglomerations will have more policy effects in breaking natural resource curses.

Oil, gold and international stock markets: Extreme spillovers, connectedness and its determinants

This study examines the lower and upper return spillovers and connectedness between important commodity (crude oil and gold) and main international stock markets using the quantile connectedness approach by Ando et al. (2018). The results show stronger return spillovers during bearish and bullish market conditions. Crude oil and gold are net receivers of return spillovers irrespective of quantiles. Furthermore, an intense spillover is observed during high stress periods including COVID-19 in March 2020, and global economic slowdown and the Brexit referendum of 2016, oil price crash in 2014–2016, Tapering Tantrum in 2013, and the subprime crisis of 2008. Moreover, the spillovers in lower quantiles are stronger than in upper quantiles. The volatility uncertainty index (VIX) has a negative impact on the connectedness index at low and median quantiles. Gold and economic policy uncertainty indexes have a positive impact on lower quantile spillovers. In contrast, oil uncertainty index has a negative impact on quantile spillovers. COVID-19 crisis has a positive impact on lower, medium, and upper spillovers.

An Empirical Investigation into Financial Distress in the FMCG Sector in India: A Comparative Analysis Using Altman Z-Score and Descriptive Statistics

India's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry is essential to the country's economic development because it generates a large number of jobs, consumer spending, and generic growth in industrial production. This study leverages the renowned Altman Z-Score model, in conjunction with descriptive statistics, to assess the financial distress of the top five FMCG firms in India. The results from the study clearly show that all the top five companies in the FMCG sector were in the safe zone or in a too healthy zone. The minimum Z-score value among the selected top five companies was 3.36, which shows the strong financial performance of the FMCG sector. The Z-score value of ITC is significant, as the value surges from 4.35 in 2014 to 6.04 in 2023 with steady growth. It implies a healthy financial environment in ITC. In contrast, the Z-score value of Britannia had significantly dropped from the values of 6.1 in 2017 to 3.77 in 2023. Between 2020-2021, almost all the companies saw a sharp downtrend in the Z-score values, which was resulted from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (Prasad, V, 2022). It reflects the global economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which also hit the FMCG sector. Britannia and ITC experienced high volatility in the Z-score values for the time period of the last ten years. The highest range was observed in ITC (2.38), followed by Britannia (2.37). The lowest range was observed in Nestle India (0.70). The financial performance of the top five companies in the FMCG sector is in a good position. It clearly shows that there is huge potential for the growth of the FMCG sector and that it will further increase the valuation of companies in the FMCG sector and benefit the shareholders, promoters, and investors.

Analysis of the Effects of the Economic Crises and Pandemic on Foreign Trade in 1994-2022 with RALS-LM Structural Break Unit Root Test Method: The Case of Türkiye

Türkiye commenced adopting export-led growth model by 1980. Via policies prioritizing the increase in export revenues, such as tax refunds, export credits, tax exemptions, and other subsidies, Türkiye targeted economic development by engaging in international trade and becoming a global economic agent. On the other hand, Türkiye gradually liberalized its financial markets starting in 1983 and completed the process of full liberalization of capital movements in 1989. However, adopting those liberal policies, Türkiye suffered many economic crises (1994, 2001, the 2008 global financial crises), paving the way to a sudden downturn in GDP, a decline in real income per capita, and employment. Also, the 2016 coup attempt, the 2018 Pastor Brunson crisis with the United States, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which created a severe global economic slowdown, negatively affected Türkiye’s economy. In this respect, within this paper, we aim to evaluate the impacts of those financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic between the years 1994-2022 on Türkiye’s foreign trade and to find out if the effects of those crises on Türkiye’s foreign trade are temporary or permanent.
 For this reason, we utilized the RALS-LM Structural Break Unit Root Test Method. The results underline that the 2008 global financial crisis substantially affected Türkiye’s exports and imports. However, the results also underline that the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on Türkiye’s foreign trade were temporary.

The Long‐Term Economic Impact of Abenomics: Evidence from the Synthetic Control Method

This paper examines the long‐term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown.

The Impact Study of Yield Curve Control on the Yen Exchange Rate and Japanese Inflation

Yield Curve Control (YCC) is fundamentally an interest rate tool that aims to maintain the yield curve at targeted levels across different maturities. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) initiated zero interest rates and quantitative easing in 2001, followed by qualitative and quantitative monetary easing policies starting in April 2013, and introduced negative interest rates in January 2016. It announced the implementation of Yield Curve Control policy as a policy objective for quantitative and qualitative easing. Amid the current global economic downturn, many Western countries have adopted interest rate hikes to ensure currency stability. However, Japan continues to implement Yield Curve Control policy to address the global economic slowdown. This paper, based on literature review and utilizing Japanese economic data from 2003 to 2022, employs correlation and regression analyses to delve into the impact of Yield Curve Control on the Japanese yens exchange rate and inflation. The study reveals that Japans Yield Curve Control policy has a certain positive impact on both the yens exchange rate and inflation, although this effect is relatively moderate. Therefore, the government should consider enhancing the use of other monetary policy tools and employing a comprehensive approach to influence exchange rates and inflation more effectively.

Analysing Factors that Enhance the Growth and Survival of Small and Medium Enterprises in Ghana

The economy of Ghana has been growing consistently during the recent years, and this growth has increased poverty and increased the number of middle-income countries in the region. Meanwhile, the current regional and global economic slowdown requires a new growth model for Ghana, with strengthened fluctuation for Small and Medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to raise national productivity. Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) in Ghana play a dynamic role in the development of this nation, and this cannot be over- emphasized. It also serves as a means of employment in the country thus releasing the pressure on the civil and public sector in the case of employment. The study seeks to solve a problem of technology by Small and Medium Enterprises (SME’s) surveyed in Ghana by using PESTEL theory. It that painful process that Small and Medium Enterprise face to access the loan. Examine the various causes that hinder the growth and survival of small businesses in Ghana. To examine the variables that leads to the growth and survival of small businesses. To enumerate various sources of funds available to SMEs in Ghana and to ascertain the impact of hindrances by SME‟s to the growth of Ghana economy. Finally, the study also revealed that most of the entrepreneurs do not have much knowledge in using technology and it has affected the growth and the survival of SME. It is believed that if all the recommendations are taken into consideration, that entrepreneurs must regard the legal aspect of their day-to-day activities and process the necessary documents to avoid legal actions taken against them.

Impact of ICT Sector Research and De velopment Expenditure on the Market Capitalization in the US, the EU and China

Purpose: Due to the growing global role of enterprises from the information and communication technology sector from the leading regions of the USA, EU and China in the industry, the author’s research goal was to try to identify factors influencing the value of listed enterprises understood as its stock exchange capitalization. For the purpose, research was carried out on the impact of a group of twenty-six variables on the company’s market capitalization, among which the most important conclusions concern the impact of seven variables, i.e. revenues, research and development expenses, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), total equity, total assets, total revenues and dividend rate. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study used research methods in the form of a random effects model and a fixed effects model, and then used the Hausmann test to verify which of the models is better suited to establishing the relationship between the selected independent variables and the dependent variable in the form of the stock market capitalization of companies from the ICT sector. Findings: It was found that the impact of equity or the level of revenues on market capitalization is much smaller than in the case of research and development expenses and that the issue of depreciation of assets is an important factor in the market valuation of enterprises from the ICT sector. Additionally, the level of assets and equity has, although limited, impact on the market valuation of the company, regardless of the region in which an entity operates. Revenues are important from a regionalization perspective – company’s market capitalization is the largest in the case of the ICT services subsector in China. There is no similar relationship among manufacturers of ICT devices operating in all three regions. Research limitations/Implications: Due to the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic slowdown are important factors affecting the ICT sector, further research on the value of ICT enterprises should take the aspects into account.

Navigating the valuation conundrum: Unravelling challenges and flaws within the startup’s valuation technique

The environment of startups in the field of information technology (IT) is strongly connected with the dynamics of finance and valuation. IT startups sometimes rely on a variety of funding sources, including Venture Capitalists (VCs), Private Equity funds, Government subsidies, and even Hedge funds. Overvaluation has emerged as a key hazard harming the IT startup ecosystem. This phenomenon occurs when the valuation of a startup exceeds its true worth, which is frequently driven by enthusiastic investor optimism, market trends, and competitive pressures. The case addresses factors that might lead to overvaluation during funding rounds of startups. The case also explores various conditions like global economic slowdown, regulatory measures, sustainability of the product or idea of a startup that mitigates downturn of valuation. The measures from all the stakeholders of startups viz., investors, founders, governments etc. is dealt with for tackling the overvaluation conundrum.

CO2 concentration forecasting in smart cities using a hybrid ARIMA–TFT model on multivariate time series IoT data

Carbon Dioxide (CO_{2}) is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and one of the main drivers behind global warming and climate change. In spite of the global economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global average atmospheric CO_{2} concentration reached a new record high in 2020 with its year-on-year increase being the fifth highest annual increase in 63 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Furthermore, the years 2020 and 2019 were respectively the second and third warmest, while the decade 2010–2019 was the warmest decade ever recorded. In an attempt to curb this climate emergency, many countries and organizations globally have adopted ambitious goals and announced plans to help dramatically reduce CO_{2} emissions. As part of these plans, various innovative smart city projects are being developed, focusing on implementing Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. By collecting sensor-based data, such technologies aim towards automating data-driven decision-making around carbon emission management and reduction. In this work, a hybrid machine learning system, aimed at forecasting CO_2 concentration levels in a smart city environment was developed using a multivariate time series dataset containing IoT sensor measurements of CO_{2}, as well as various environmental factors, taken at every second. The proposed system demonstrated superior performance to similar methods, while also maintaining a high degree of interpretability. More specifically, the approach was empirically compared against other similar approaches in several scenarios and use cases, thus also offering more insight into the predictive capabilities of such state-of-the-art systems. For this comparison, both traditional time series and deep learning approaches were employed, including the current state-of-the-art architectures, such as attention-based, transformer networks. Results demonstrated that, when measured across various settings and metrics, including three different forecasting horizons, the hybrid solution achieved the best overall results, and in some cases, the difference in performance was statistically significant. At the same time, insights from the system’s inner workings were extracted, shedding light on the reasoning behind the model’s predictions and the factors that contribute to them, thus showcasing its transparency. Lastly, throughout the experiments, deep learning approaches illustrated their ability to better handle the multivariate nature of the dataset and in general tended to outperform the traditional time series methods, especially for longer forecasting horizons.

El impacto de los programas de compra de deuda soberana. El diferencial de rentabilidad entre España y Portugal

Rationale Against a backdrop of weaker global and euro area activity, in 2023 to date the Spanish economy has shown notable resilience compared with other European economies. This article aims to illustrate some of the factors explaining this greater strength. Takeaways •The differences between the sectoral composition of the Spanish economy and that of the euro area seem to explain in part the greater buoyancy of activity in Spain. •Spain has less trade exposure to China (whose recent slowdown is one of the main factors behind the global economic slowdown) than the other euro area economies. •The Spanish economy continuing to outperform the euro area over the coming quarters will depend on how lower expected growth in manufacturing is passed-through to services or whether tourism loses momentum.

Public policies oriented to social development: budget analysis of the food assistance program in the State of Guanajuato, Mexico for the years 2018-2023

The global economic shows a significant increase in the number of people living in poverty, with the regions of Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and some countries in Asia being mainly affected. For Mexico, 2018 marks a juncture in the country's governance that is guided by the increase in public spending allocated to programs in response to the global economic slowdown and the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant increase in indicators of poverty, inequality and marginalization.