An Empirical Investigation into Financial Distress in the FMCG Sector in India: A Comparative Analysis Using Altman Z-Score and Descriptive Statistics

Abstract

India's Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry is essential to the country's economic development because it generates a large number of jobs, consumer spending, and generic growth in industrial production. This study leverages the renowned Altman Z-Score model, in conjunction with descriptive statistics, to assess the financial distress of the top five FMCG firms in India. The results from the study clearly show that all the top five companies in the FMCG sector were in the safe zone or in a too healthy zone. The minimum Z-score value among the selected top five companies was 3.36, which shows the strong financial performance of the FMCG sector. The Z-score value of ITC is significant, as the value surges from 4.35 in 2014 to 6.04 in 2023 with steady growth. It implies a healthy financial environment in ITC. In contrast, the Z-score value of Britannia had significantly dropped from the values of 6.1 in 2017 to 3.77 in 2023. Between 2020-2021, almost all the companies saw a sharp downtrend in the Z-score values, which was resulted from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (Prasad, V, 2022). It reflects the global economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which also hit the FMCG sector. Britannia and ITC experienced high volatility in the Z-score values for the time period of the last ten years. The highest range was observed in ITC (2.38), followed by Britannia (2.37). The lowest range was observed in Nestle India (0.70). The financial performance of the top five companies in the FMCG sector is in a good position. It clearly shows that there is huge potential for the growth of the FMCG sector and that it will further increase the valuation of companies in the FMCG sector and benefit the shareholders, promoters, and investors.