Global Economic Crisis Research Articles

Резервы вишеградского сотрудничества

The article attempts to analyze the limits of stability of a unique regional formation – the Visegrad group that was founded a third of a century ago on the ruins of the socialist camp. Over the past two years, the Visegrad Quartet has been subjected to perhaps the most serious tests in the entire history of its existence, related to the divergence in approaches to the military conflict in Ukraine. The author notes that the longer the conflict lasts, the tougher the positions of Kiev’s supporters and opponents become. The population of Central European countries gets tired of the war. The regime of sanctions against Russia and the influx of refugees from Ukraine as well as from Russia and Belarus begin to affect the results of national elections in central European countries, and hence brings changes in the position of countries towards Moscow, Kiev and Brussels. For the first time, countries are facing the problem of such multifaceted pressure literally in all spheres of life, including the economy and the social sphere, which are acutely affected by the consequences of the war. Having relatively successfully overcome the global economic crisis together, turned away the migration flow from the South, stood up in the fight against COVID?19, and survived “attacks” from Brussels, the Visegrad Union now seems to have faced an existential problem of a geopolitical nature. Nevertheless, according to the author, it is too early to write an obituary on the Visegrad group. It still has certain reserves, hidden both in its genesis and structural features, which have no parallel among not only European but also world regional units. The main achievement of the Visegrad Four’s three decades of operation may be the hard-won and subsequently mastered “art of compromise”. No matter how deep the differences in the views and positions of the countries may be, the understanding of the necessity to find a compromise for the sake of preserving the unity of the region always prevails. In particular, the events of the last two years since February 2022, marked by a military conflict on the eastern border of the Quartet, have proved this statement.

Региональные особенности российских компаний-«газелей» в пандемию

In the context of global turbulence, the Russian national economy needs positive economic practices of resilience and subsequent development. This need is even greater in regional economies, where a few relatively small growth points, including high-growth firms (HGFs, ‘gazelles’), can become drivers for the entire region. The study analyses the performance of high-growing firms and their impact on regional resilience during the acute phase of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021). A sample of 11,940 firms (including 403 HGFs) in Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Kurgan, Lipetsk, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk regions, Krasnoyarsk krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan was examined. The research uses such approaches as estimation of the shares of HGFs by number and output and assessment of correlation using the nonparametric method of Spearman’s coefficient. The share of HGFs in the sample as a whole and for each region is consistent with global trends (2-4 %). The industrial structure of high-growth firms differs across regions, meaning that HGFs manifest themselves individually in various regions. ‘Gazelles’ demonstrated a greater ability to preserve jobs during the pandemic in most regions of the sample. For example, while an average employment growth rate was 2 % in 2020, this figure was 25 % for HGFs in Krasnoyarsk krai and Sverdlovsk oblast. During economic recession, ‘gazelles’ positively affect regional resilience in such activities as transport and storage, wholesale and retail trade, and mining. The result is the opposite for manufacturing: a larger share of high-growth companies was characteristic of regions with slower output growth rates for this type of activity in 2020–2121. The findings can be used to substantiate the significance of developing and implementing government support programmes for HGFs at the federal and regional levels.

Developmental Effect of Rising Oil Price and Inflation on Economic Performance in the US: Incorporating the Global Economic Crisis

Developmental Effect of Rising Oil Price and Inflation on Economic Performance in the US: Incorporating the Global Economic Crisis

Editorial Note

However, the question arises about the maneuvering room of these governments. While they share a critical stance against neoliberalism and seek to implement public policies that transform the socio-economic structures of the region, they face a series of challenges that we can summarize into three major ones: Adverse international context. The global economic crisis, the war in Ukraine, and the rise of the right in some countries around the world create a complex scenario for the implementation of progressive agendas. Existing power structures. Traditional economic and political elites still wield great power in the region, which can hinder the implementation of deep reforms. Institutional weaknesses. Corruption, lack of transparency, and the weakness of the rule of law are obstacles that limit the governments' ability to act. The debate on the future of the left in Latin America is complex and still open. While the current outlook is hopeful, it is important to consider the challenges faced by progressive governments. Their success will depend on their ability to build social consensus, strengthen institutions, and navigate in an adverse international context.

Optimisation of Cross-Border Project Management In Higher Education Institutions in the Context of the Impact of Global Economic Crises

In today's globalized and interconnected world, the impact of global crises poses increasing risks to the economic situation of each country in particular. The study of cross-border cooperation in the context of current crisis processes allows us to identify new risks and ways to minimize them. The purpose of the study is to analyze ways to optimize the management of cross-border projects in the context of the impact of global economic crises. Scenario planning, SWOT analysis, statistical and mathematical research methods are used in the course of the study. The article discusses the peculiarities of managing cross-border projects on the example of the Precarpathian National University in the context of the impact of global economic crises. Using the example of the university, the author analyzes the implementation of cross-border projects for the period of 2020-2022, which occurred during two crises. The first global economic crisis is caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the second regional crisis is caused by the war in Ukraine. The risks faced by the grantee in implementing international programs are identified. The study analyzed four different cross-border projects, which made it possible to assess all the risks in more detail and identify existing problems. For a detailed analysis, the medium-sized PrePOD project was selected, which operated from 2020 to 2022 and received an average amount of funding. The strengths and weaknesses of cross-border cooperation were assessed. The study pays special attention to the role of the Precarpathian National University, emphasizing the need for financial risk management, effective communication, compliance with the law, and adaptation of national legislation to European standards. The paper formulates strategies for improving the management of cross-border projects in the context of global crises, and proposes to create research centers to improve the management of grant activities. It has been determined that flexibility and communication are the international factors that can reduce the impact of crisis processes on the implementation of international cooperation.

Linkages Between Property Prices and Macroeconomic Determinants: Evidence from Germany

The global financial and economic crisis has led to significant efforts to better integrate property price channels into macroeconomic models and to improve models. This paper deals with property prices in Germany and their determinants in the period Q1 2000‒Q4 2022. Since then, property prices in Germany have risen considerably. The models regularly use indicators that are aligned with the specificities of property, but less macroeconomic determinants. From economic models, theoretical modes of action between macroeconomic determinants and property prices are generally known. Regarding Germany, there are only limited studies on the direct influences of economic determinants. In the context of a regression analysis, this paper examines the relationship between the selected variables that directly drive house prices. On the one hand the results confirm a positive relationship between property prices and real GDP. On the other hand, a negative correlation was found for real short-term interest rates and inflation. In this study, no significant relationships were found between house prices and unemployment rate and long-term interest rates, despite a culture of long-term fixed interest rates in Germany.

Credit as a key driver of sustainability and economic recovery of Ukraine

The study examines the current topic of bank lending in modern Ukrainian conditions. By analyzing the dynamics of credit activity and the financial condition of banks in Ukraine, the work reveals the main problems affecting this sector, such as a large share of non-performing loans, a decrease in the share of long-term loans, and a high lending rate. The conclusions of the work provide recommendations for improving the situation on the lending market in Ukraine. The modern economy of Ukraine is experiencing complex challenges related to the war in Ukraine, which was preceded by the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic crisis. In this context, the article examines the role of credit as a key driver of economic stability and post-victory recovery. The study is based on the analysis of available data and literature sources, and also uses empirical methods to determine the impact of lending on economic recovery. The article highlights key aspects of lending, such as the role of banks, loan volumes, interest rates and overdue loans. The results of the study emphasize the importance of the development of the financial sector and the promotion of credit availability for enterprises and the population in the context of the economic recovery of Ukraine. The authors provide practical recommendations for the government and regulators to improve the credit environment and stimulate investment activity. This article is aimed at opening discussions and promoting further research into the role of lending in stimulating the economic recovery of Ukraine in the face of today's extremely complex challenges and may be useful for economists, theoreticians and practitioners. The scientific study analyzes how lending can affect the financial stability of Ukraine, in particular, how it can reduce financial risks and contribute to the stability of the economy. The impact of credit availability for various areas and sectors of the economy is considered. The article offers an important contribution to understanding and improving the effectiveness of lending as a tool for the economic recovery of Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a coordinated approach to this issue, taking into account the unique challenges and opportunities that exist at this stage of the country's development.

G20 Success Has A Positive Impact On Indonesian Msmes

The initial reference for the formation of the G20 Summit was due to the global economic crisis caused by the pandemic. The G20 Summit will be held in Bali on 15-16 November 2022 with the big theme "Recover Together, Recover Stronger" which will have an impact on the Indonesian economy, especially for UMKM, especially UMKM in Indonesia are considered a pillar of the economy because they have an impact on distribution of people's income and being able to crash and survive in an economic crisis like in 1997. The purpose of this discussion is to find out how the impact of G20 activities has on the improvement of UMKM in Indonesia. The research method used in this writing is literature or through bibliographical reference sources such as books, journals, documents and other sources that can be accounted for in a qualitative way by analyzing descriptions related to existing data. The results of the discussion are that there is a G20 presidency Some of the positive impacts for UMKM in Indonesia include providing marketing opportunities for UMKM business owners in Indonesia to advance to the international level, increasing domestic consumption up to Rp. 1.7 trillion and there is a projected increase in foreign tourists of up to 1.8 million to 3.6 million and also 600-700 thousand new jobs supported by the good performance of the culinary, fashion and craft sectors and learning the importance of digital marketing for UMKM.

INTEGRATION OF UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE INTO THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

In light of the war in Ukraine and the global economic crises, science is becoming increasingly important. The role of agricultural science in solving global food security issues is felt to be especially necessary. The article defines the important role of Ukrainian agricultural science in the economy of Ukraine and the post-conflict restoration of agricultural lands. The purpose of the research is highlighting the importance of the role of Ukrainian agricultural science in the global environment. In the process of writing a scientific article, сreation of objects of intellectual property law at the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, and also the results of the commercialization of scientific and knowledge-intensive products of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine were determined. The main international institutions of which the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine is a member are outlined. Defined the main strategic directions of scientific support for the socio-economic development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine. Characterised Bank of plant genetic resources and Bank of animal genetic resources which was made by NAAS. Defined priority tasks for innovation of development of NAAS. Established that the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine is an important component of Ukrainian and international science, which is aware of modern realities and implements measures for the development of the scientific sphere. In particular the academy overcomes negative trends and challenges, taking into account the war in Ukraine. Responsibility for scientific and production indicators of activity is increased, an action plan is formed to identify problematic issues and eliminate the causes of their occurrence. The academy takes an active part in post-conflict reconstruction of agricultural territories of Ukraine. The resources of the scientific, technical and material base are mobilised, the dependence on commercial structures is reduced, conditions are created for the strengthening of scientific and industrial complexes, coordination of their work and development at the local level. The academy develops at the expense of innovative infrastructure, taking into account European integration processes and access to international investment resources.

Analysing volatility patterns in emerging markets: symmetric or asymmetric models?

PurposeInvestors aim for returns when investing in stocks, making return volatility a crucial concern. This study compares symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models to forecast volatility in emerging nations like the G4 countries. Accurate volatility forecasting is vital for investors to make well-informed investment decisions, forming the core purpose of this study.Design/methodology/approachFrom January 1993 to May 2021, the study spans four periods, focusing on the global economic crisis of 2008, the Russian crisis of 2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic. Standard generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), exponential GARCH (E-GARCH) and Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH models were employed to analyse the data. Robustness was assessed using the Akaike information criterion, Schwarz information criterion and maximum log-likelihood criteria.FindingsThe study's findings show that the E-GARCH model is the best model for forecasting volatility in emerging nations. This is because the E-GARCH model is able to capture the asymmetric effects of positive and negative shocks on volatility.Originality/valueThis unique study compares symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for forecasting volatility in emerging nations, a novel approach not explored in prior research. The insights gained can aid investors in constructing more effective risk-adjusted international portfolios, offering a better understanding of stock market volatility to inform strategic investment decisions.

TRENDS IN FRAILTY INCIDENCE AND THE IMPACT OF LIFESTYLE AMONG US ADULTS AGED ≥50 YEARS FROM 2004 TO 2020

Abstract Few studies have estimated frailty incidence. The contribution of lifestyle to the incidence of frailty may change over time. It is necessary to quantify the impact of lifestyle on frailty incidence over time. A total of 25,639 subjects aged ≥50 years from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) 2004-2020 were divided into seven consecutive and overlapping cohorts. Frailty was measured using the Paulson–Lichtenberg Frailty Index. Lifestyle included smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and sleep problems. The trend of frailty incidence rates was estimated by generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with a natural cubic spline. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using hazard ratios from Cox models. Lifestyle-attributable frailty incidence rates were estimated by multiplying PAFs by the overall incidence rate of frailty. The incidence (per 1,000 person-years) of frailty showed a general trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a peak occurrence of 22.7 (95% CI: 21.0, 24.5) in 2010–2014. Almost 20% of frailty incidence rates were attributed to current smoking, physical inactivity, or sleep problems. The incidence of frailty showed a fluctuating but decreasing trend among middle-aged and older adults in the United States from 2004 to 2020, with a peak occurrence after the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Smoking, physical inactivity, and sleep problems may have contributed importantly to the incidence of frailty. Effective and early frailty prevention strategies should be developed to reduce smoking, physical inactivity, and sleep problems, especially in the context of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 epidemic.

Editorial: Sustainability challenges around energy poverty in an era of global environmental and economic crisis

Editorial: Sustainability challenges around energy poverty in an era of global environmental and economic crisis

Mémoire, nostalgie et « la fin de l’utopie » à l’âge du « présentisme »

"Less than a decade after the proclamation of “the end of history”, the anxieties about “the end of utopia” are gaining ground in the intellectual field all over the world, in the context of both “the crisis of the future” and the haunting of the present by the painful pasts. The latter two are the main consequences of the fracture in the contemporary temporal order – occurred in the ‘70s and deepened after the fall of the Iron Curtain – which defines the “presentist regime of historicity”. These dynamics are counterbalanced, in the same period, by a “global epidemic of nostalgia”, including the commodified forms of “retromania”, that reveals the presentist “faces of utopianism”, from the non-instrumental “retrospective utopias” – as poles of “existential” types of reflective nostalgic practices – to the instrumental “retrotopias” based on the “restorative nostalgia”, which were mobillized in the contemporary memory wars, starting from the ‘80s. Reflecting the tensions between the fixation on the traumatic legacy of the “age of extremes” and the apprehensions about “the future of nostalgia”, the presentist dynamics of multidirectional memory discloses conflictual landscapes (social, cultural, and political), from the mnemonic turn of the ’70s and the ‘80s – which has arisen against the background of the decline of both welfare state and the nation-states, and of the global economic crisis – to the post–Cold War contests around “the divised memories” of “Europe’s Europes”, coexisting with the clashes of contradictory “faces” of nostalgia and utopia. Keywords: presentism, multidirectional memory, nostalgia, retrospective utopia, retrotopia"

The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on Inflation After Inflation Targeting Framework Implementation in Indonesia

The global economic crisis that occurred in 1997, which led to the collapse of the rupiah exchange rate and soaring inflation, made the country realize the importance of economic stability. The problem was then responded by Bank Indonesia by implementing the Inflation Targeting Framework policy. The focus of this study is to observe the inflation condition in Indonesia after the implementation of the Inflation Targeting Framework policy. The purpose of this study is to see the influence of macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Indonesia. The method used is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis with the research period from 2005Q4-2021Q4. The results found that GDP and interest rates have a positive effect on inflation. While the Exchange Rate has a negative effect on inflation in Indonesia.

Assessment of Tourism in Hungary Between 2004-2022 in the Light of Regional Differences

The objective of the study is to present the tourism performance of Hungary within the European Union between 2004 and 2022. In addition to national trends, the analysis also focuses on the regional NUTS2 level. In European terms, Hungary is characterised by a medium tourism performance, but tourism is still the dominant industry at the level of the national economy in terms of its contribution to GDP. The research highlights regional differences in socio-economic indicators and their correlation with economic determination and tourism performance. Indeed, the over-domination of Budapest can be identified in most socio-economic indicators. The consequence of the capital's 'hydrocephalus' is that Hungary's peripheral regions have developed serious economic challenges. Reducing regional disparities in these areas is key to promoting economic catching-up and avoiding social tensions, in particular depopulation. The indicators presented in the study show a significant decline in the years after 2008 and in 2020-21 compared to previous years. This is attributable to the global economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, which have had a significant impact on the overall economic and tourism performance of our country.

PENGARUH UNDANG-UNDANG CIPTA KERJA DALAM MENGATASI PENGANGGURAN DI INDONESIA

This research aims to determine the influence of the Job Creation Law in overcoming unemployment in Indonesia, namely. This research is normative research using conceptual studies (conceptual approach) and statutory studies (statute approach). The Job Creation Law was formulated to realize the goal of establishing the Indonesian Government and realizing a prosperous, just and prosperous Indonesian society based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution. The State needs to make various efforts to fulfill citizens' rights to work and a decent living for humanity through create work. Job creation is expected to be able to absorb as wide a workforce as possible in Indonesia amidst increasingly competitive competition and the demands of economic globalization as well as global economic challenges and crises which can cause disruption to the national economy.

PoliSEAmaking: Accountabilities in Economic Responses to COVID-19 of Southeast Asian Governments

This paper examines the connection between governments’ accountability and their responses to the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 through the lens of competing principals approach. Given that governments’ sense of accountability towards groups of principals may vary, it may affect the policy outcomes as well. In the case of Covid-19 pandemic, the dilemma manifests in the extent to which the governments spend their resources on economic assistance to the people. By using the ever-growing corpus of data on economic responses, such as The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) as well as the compilation of several measures for political accountabilities, regime types, and COVID-related public health, this study finds that, unlike other regions in the world, the only type of accountability predicting Southeast Asian (SEA) governments’ level of economic support to the people is diagonal accountability leveraged by the media and civil societies (CSOs). This finding not only illustrates the dilemma faced by the governments as an agent in a multi-principal scenario, but also indicate that a) SEA governments generally do not feel directly liable to its people; b) they do not feel pressured by the check and balances mechanisms of formal institutions, either; and c) they only feel obligated to do something when the issue is being publicized in the news or mobilized by the CSOs.

Increasing innovative activity at Ukrainian industrial enterprises through technology transfer

The article examines measures of step-by-step promotion of innovations at industrial enterprises of Ukraine. Economic factors hindering the implementation of new technologies at enterprises are highlighted. This is caused primarily by the fact that during the global economic crisis, enterprises and industries that actively implement and use innovative technologies are competitive. At the same time, Ukraine continues to develop as a country with a high share of raw materials industries, and innovative development has not become one of the main signs of the growth of the national economy. Although positive trends were observed for several years, they were mainly temporary in nature and were replaced by opposite shifts in the economy, which characterizes innovation processes in Ukraine as unstable and devoid of clear long-term incentives for innovative activity. In these conditions, there is a need to identify key problems that hinder the development of innovative activities of domestic enterprises, and to find ways to solve them. The implementation of a marketing strategy for the promotion of innovative projects at small and medium-sized industrial enterprises and the transfer process of innovations at large enterprises to gain their competitive advantages in domestic and foreign markets is substantiated. Emphasis is placed on the existing features of implementation in the conditions of digitalization of global business, which is confirmed by the construction of appropriate layouts and schemes. An overview was carried out to what extent all these technological innovations lead to deep and large-scale changes in the systemic character of economic (and not only economic) relations, reformatting of their very foundations and the emergence of new socio-economic institutions. Thus, the basis of modern relations is not only and not so much property relations, but the possibility of access to certain goods, resources, and information. Radical technological innovations to one degree or another affect and will increasingly affect the technologies of commercial operations, the role and forms of activity of their commercial intermediaries. The process of technology transfer to the real sector of the economy has been improved, which takes into account the joint refinement of innovative projects of innovators with enterprises that are potential bases of implementation, with the implementation of the activities of the Coordination Center.

The Potential of Informal Institutions in Promoting Green Enterpreneurship (Ge) and Sustainable Socio-Economic Development

Abstract The continuity of the green environment, economy, and entrepreneur-ship is essential for sustainable development. Therefore, this research aims to explored the potential of informal institutions in promoting Green Enterpreneurship (GE) and sustainable socio-economic development. The method employed used microeconomic data rooted in local wisdom, social norms, and localized moral commitments from various regions of Indonesia. Data collection comprised surveys and structured interviews relevant to the research objectives. Quantitative data material was obtained by conducting a field survey of 150 household samples of green entrepreneurship respondents taken representatively in various regions using simple random sampling techniques. The design employed a two-stage mixed-method approach, including exploratory and explanatory designs. The result showed the significance of Green Enterpreneurship (GE) in mitigating the impacts of global climate change and economic crises, thereby contributing to the attainment of sustainable development goals. However, the main results of the research confirm that the capacity of formal institutions has not been able to navigate the complexity of these problems isssues is limited. Conversely, informal institutions, though capable of mitigating global climate change and advancing sustainable development, remained localized and lacked national and global integration and collaboration. Green Enterpreneurship (GE), as a form of social innovation, gave rise to new models of socio-economic solidarity within unique local communities. The research also underscored the pivotal role of informal institutions in facilitating these endeavors, thereby filling a void in high-quality new institutional economic theory

Land and ocean grabs and the relative surplus population in Ghana

Abstract Situated in the context of the land and ocean grabs in Ghana post-2007–2008 global economic crises, this article argues that the country is experiencing “primitive accumulation” without capitalist industrialization. I draw on the insights of agrarian political economy to argue that this has created cheap laborers without industrial capital to exploit. The corollary of this is the creation of additional “relative surplus population”, worsening the country's (un)employment crisis. However, this “relative surplus population” is not marginal to global capitalist accumulation and exploitation; on the contrary, it is important to them. The article draws on ethnographic fieldwork in Ghanaian communities to document the voices of the dispossessed and semi-proletarianized about their experiences with the crisis of (re)production inflicted on them by global capitalism.