Global Economic Crisis Research Articles

Z-number based fuzzy MCDM models for analyzing non-traditional security threats to finance supply chains: A case study from Vietnam

Non-traditional security (NTS) threats have a vast and profound impact on many aspects of economic, political, social, and many other areas, especially supply chain finance (SCF), particularly in countries like Vietnam, which potentially affects the economic efficiency of businesses' supply chain financial, thereby affecting the general economy of the country and the world. In order to prevent and minimize the negative impacts caused by NTS threats to SCF, this study was conducted to identify NTS threats affecting SCF in Vietnam, at the same time calculate the weight of the impact level and find out the cause and effect relationship between them. Solution strategies are also proposed and ranked, thereby serving as a reference basis for relevant parties to choose appropriate response solutions. Due to the multi-criteria nature of NTS threats, the multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) method is used in combination with the Z-number concept and Fuzzy set theory to approach the problem of certainty and increase the accuracy of study. The NTS threats are first identified through a literature review and then validated for suitability using the DELPHI technique (DELPHI). Suitable threats will be determined by relationship, weighted by Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Proposed strategies are ranked using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The results indicate that there are 19 NTS factors affecting SCF in Vietnam, and the global economic downturn, pandemic and health crisis, financial crisis and cybersecurity risk are the four root cause factors with the most decisive influence. Businesses and concerns need to prioritize addressing these four threats because they not only have a strong impact but also entail many other threats. The two strategies considered to be the most effective are a sustainable practice and a risk-hedging strategy. Businesses, governments, and stakeholders also should pay attention to the macroeconomic environment, technology, and environment and build sustainable businesses, regularly monitoring economic fluctuations and creating plans to prevent risks.

The Contemporary Issues, Challenges and Technological gap in Entrepreneurship Education in Nigerian Higher Institutions

The study investigates the contemporary issues, challenges and technological gap in entrepreneurship education in Nigerian higher institutions. Entrepreneurship education has emphasis on economics and covers business disciplines like management, marketing and finance with links to psychology, sociology, and teacher education as well as business education. It prepares and builds persons to be responsible and enterprising individuals capable of deep entrepreneurial thinking that contribute to economic and sustainable development. It focuses on expertise that is needed and used to conceive and commercialise business opportunities. Nigeria especially in the face of the global economic crisis and its energy crisis requires graduates who will be job “creators” and not job “seekers”. This paper addresses contemporary issues, challenges, technological gap and strategies in the development of entrepreneurship education in Nigerian higher institutions. It therefore concluded that entrepreneurship is more than being smart. It is the ability of a person to collaborate with others and to act in the face of new opportunities. Recommendations were made that entrepreneurial teachings have to go beyond the traditional teachings in the classroom. This implies the need to involve students in experiential training. The government should set machinery in motion to provide an enabling environment for entrepreneurship education in Nigerian higher institutions.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Disrupted Language Teacher Identities in Times of Uncertainty

The English language teaching (ELT) profession is at its precipice with large-scale global events and transitions in the recent decade. Changes in global alliances, international conflicts, geopolitical tensions, wars, economic crises, and global climate changes brought uncertainties to the world and the ELT landscape. In this special issue, Between Indisposition and Perseverance: Disrupted Language Teacher Identities in Times of Uncertainty, we explore how English language teachers, researchers, and professionals grapple with indispositions from social, historical, political, economic, and emotional dilemmas in times of uncertainty. [First paragraph of the introduction to the special issue]

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТУ ТУРИСТИЧНОГО БІЗНЕСУ В УМОВАХ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ

The article examines the peculiarities of managing the tourism business in the context of global instability. The authors investigate the impact of global trends, economic crises, natural disasters, and political conflicts on the tourism industry. The paper discusses strategies of strategic planning, marketing, and customer service in changing conditions, as well as practices of sustainable development and responsible tourism. The authors emphasize the importance of adaptability and innovation in addressing the challenges facing the tourism business in today's unpredictable world. Furthermore, the article analyzes the impact of crisis situations on the tourism sector and provides recommendations for survival and recovery strategies post-crisis. It highlights the significance of collaboration among various stakeholders to ensure the sustainable functioning of the tourism industry amidst unpredictability and global challenges. The conclusions of the article underscore the necessity of implementing innovative approaches and utilizing modern technologies in tourism business management to ensure its resilience and competitiveness in the contemporary world. The article also delves into the importance of integrating ethical standards into tourism activities, particularly considering the socio-cultural aspects of destination sites. Strategies for mitigating negative environmental impacts and benefiting local communities are discussed, alongside the preservation of cultural heritage. It underscores that in a constantly changing world, adaptability and innovation are key success factors. The paper's conclusions highlight the necessity for collaboration among all stakeholders, joint efforts to address challenges, and leveraging opportunities in the tourism industry to stimulate sustainable economic growth and cultural exchange. Additionally, the article emphasizes the need for proactive crisis management strategies in the

Dynamics of Indonesian stock market interconnection: Insights from selected ASEAN countries and global players during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the evolving dynamics of the Indonesian stock market in relation to selected ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) and global economic players (the US, Japan, and China) during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing weekly data for the pandemic era (January 2020 – December 2021) and the post-pandemic period (January 2022 – December 2023), the ARDL technique reveals intricate relationships among these capital markets. Long-term analyses indicate that Singapore and the Philippines positively influenced Indonesia’s market during the pandemic. At the same time, China had a negative impact, highlighting heightened sensitivity and interconnectedness during crises. Since the pandemic, Malaysia, Singapore, the US, China, and Japan emerged as key positive influencers, with other countries showing insignificance. In the short term, during the pandemic, Malaysia, Thailand, and China had a significant positive impact on Indonesia’s capital market. However, only Malaysia continued to exert a significant influence on Indonesia after the pandemic. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interactions shaping Indonesia’s stock market performance amidst global economic fluctuations and crises.

International Trade in the Changing World: Economic and Statistical Analysis

Based on an analysis of the time series of the ratios of export, import, and foreign trade turnover to GDP, the article periodizes the dynamics of world trade from 1970 to 2023. The features of these indices that require attention when interpreting their changes are shown. The growth in the intensity of foreign trade was followed in the 1970s by its stagnation in the 1980s and then by a new growth which, in turn, was stopped by the global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. After its end and until now, the growth in the intensity of international trade in the world as a whole has not resumed. Simultaneously, since 2014 there has been an increase in geopolitical fragmentation of the world trade. Nowadays, it manifests itself primarily in the rapid growth of turnover between Russia and China, further contraction of Russia’s turnover with EU countries, and a dramatic fall of China's share in the total U.S. import in 2023.Comparison of the ratios of export, import and foreign trade turnover to GDP with the KOF globalization index reveals synchroneity of changes in international trade and globalization as a whole. The common factor guiding the dynamics of both processes is a change in the world order, the breaking points of which are the crises generated by this change. The movement toward a multipolar world order is accompanied today by new strengthening of the barrier functions of state borders, resulting in a slowdown or reverse of globalization in its most vital domains, including international trade.

US Trade Policy Uncertainty and Nigeria’s Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Frequency Domain Causality, Wavelet Coherence Analysis, and Time-Varying Causality

AbstractThis study examines for the first time whether trade policy uncertainty emanating from the United States significantly predicts Nigeria’s participation in global value chains. It further examines the kind of global value chain participation in Nigeria (forward or backward linkages) that is most predictable by the United States trade policy uncertainty. To achieve the study objective, frequency domain causality, wavelet coherence analysis, and time-varying causality are employed in analyzing annual data sets over the period 1990–2019. The summary of the study findings is as follows; first, trade policy uncertainty emanating from the United States significantly predicts Nigeria’s overall integration into global value chains. Second, there is a positive association between Nigeria’s integration into global value chains and the United States trade policy uncertainty. Third, Nigeria’s overall integration into global value chains is highly correlated with the United States trade policy uncertainty in periods around the global economic crisis of 2007/08 and Nigeria’s recession of the late 2010s. Fourth, most of the predictability noticed in the relations between trade policy uncertainty generated by the United States and the overall global value chain participation is caused by the relations between the United States trade policy uncertainty and Nigeria’s forward linkage into global value chain participation.

Strategi dan Inovasi Model Bisnis Katering dalam Meningkatkan Daya Saing di Era Pasar Digital

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) often face severe challenges during the global economic crisis, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. MSMEs are encouraged to have strategies and innovations in order to face the crisis. This study aims to analyze catering business model strategies and innovations in improving post-pandemic competitiveness. This research uses qualitative methods with data collection through observation, literature review and in-depth interviews. Observations were made on three MSMEs engaged in catering. In-depth interviews were conducted with five MSMEs who were willing to be asked for information directly. This data analysis uses data reduction, data presentation and conclusions. The results of this study highlight several streams of catering business strategies and innovations carried out by MSMEs after the post COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, MSMEs can also turn challenges into opportunities through product innovation. This research has implications for adequate preparation and understanding of strategies and business model innovations that can be done to reduce the negative impact of the global crisis. Thus, this study can help the government in supporting MSMEs to be able to overcome the global crisis.

СОПОСТАВЛЕНИЕ ФАКТОРОВ РИСКА НА РЫНКЕ НЕДВИЖИМОСТИ РОССИИ С ФАКТОРАМИ КРИЗИСА СУБПРАЙМ-ИПОТЕК 2008-2013 ГОДОВ

The article analyzes the global economic crisis that occurred in 2008-2013, compares the state of the Russian real estate market, and examines the risk factors of this market associated with the stimulat-ing mortgage lending policy

ANALISIS TRANSMISSION OF MONETERY POLICY TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KEUANGAN PASCA PEMULIHAN EKONOMI IN FIVE APEC COUNTRIES

The aim of this research is to determine and investigate how the global economic crisis in 2020 affected financial and economic growth after the Covid-19 crisis and the economic recovery that followed. Secondary data covering the period 2013 to 2023 was used in this research. Money supply, real interest rates, exchange rates, investment, inflation, and gross domestic product are the variables taken into account. This research examines the short-term and long-term impacts of monetary policy on financial and economic growth in five Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. Three variables investment, reallinteresttrates, and moneyxsupplyido not significantly influence1economicxor financial growth, according to the study's findings, while two variables inflation and exchange rates have a positive impact on economic and financial growth.

In search of a growth model for Italy: the failed attempt of an export-led recovery strategy?

We analyse Italy’s growth pattern from 2001 to 2019 using the demand and growth regime categories proposed in the post-Keynesian tradition and recently adopted in the comparative political economy (CPE) literature. We argue that after the Global Financial and Economic Crisis (GFEC), Italy followed an export-led recovery strategy. In this respect, Germany’s growth model emerged as the successful model to follow. In the dominant view, Germany’s economic success since the mid-2000s was attributed to a series of painful but necessary economic reforms. The success of Germany’s export-led mercantilist regime became particularly attractive to Italy given the similar export-oriented manufacturing industry. However, Italy has followed the ‘wrong’ German model based on wage compression and restrictive budget policies while the ‘true’ German model is based on non-price competitiveness factors.

Lessons From the Impact of Global and Domestic Economic Crises on Tourists’ Behaviour

Economic crises have been demonstrated to have profound consequences on the tourism industry. Insights from previous global economic and financial crises can provide valuable perspectives on the economic crisis accompanying the war in Eastern Europe. Through a survey conducted during the off-peak seasons of 2008, 2009/2010, and 2010/2011, we compared satisfaction with the attributes of the Algarve—a region globally recognized by the 3S’s— before global and domestic crises and after the global crisis. Our findings reveal that the international and domestic crises have not affected the image of the Algarve. However, this observation conceals shifts in how tourists perceive the destination's attributes. The valuation of accommodations and beaches declined between the pre and post-global crises. At the same time, the friendliness of locals and safety were more negatively impacted when comparing tourists’ assessments before the domestic crisis and after the global crisis. Results indicate that price reduction strategies adversely affect tourists’ assessments of the "value for money." This impact is more pronounced for tourists with higher education levels, who employ fewer "slicing" strategies. Furthermore, non-sovereign debt tourists appear to be more dissatisfied with a price reduction policy, possibly due to changes in the composition and quality of the offered packages.

Editorial

How is progressive politics developing in the wake of the multiple global crises that we currently face? What does it mean to be politically progressive in contemporary politics? Is the electoral turn the only path for today’s progressive politics? This special issue seeks to explore the current range of opportunities and obstacles facing advocates of progressive politics following more than a decade of eventful developments since the 2008 global economic crisis. It focuses especially on two core themes which we consider to be central to the journal Global Political Economy. First, we explore the nature of the current crisis/crises in the contemporary global political economy. Second, we highlight the forms of progressive politics that we consider to have the potential to respond to that crisis. In doing so, we seek to delineate the scope for resistance, dissent and emancipation in the contemporary global political economy; and, in doing so, focus our attention on the contested nature of that global political economy, and the trajectories for change which instances of contestation have the potential to produce.

Measurement of Food Insecurity in Selected Districts of Kabul City

Food Insecurity has significantly increased in both developed and developing countries, causing suffering for people due to lack of food. Food Insecurity has been mostly observed during major crises, such as the global economic crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 outbreak in 2019. Despite fundamental efforts in fighting poverty, Afghanistan continues to struggle with food insecurity with a large proportion of its population living below the poverty line. Four districts of Kabul city were measured for Food Insecurity in which people were unable to obtain the necessary calories within 24 hours. At the present time, the social problem of Food Insecurity in Afghanistan is becoming more serious as people’s lives depend on humanitarian aid and donations. The Foster Greer Thorbecke method of measuring Food Insecurity was utilized in this paper to measure Food Insecurity in four selected districts of Kabul city. Household opinions have been collected via questionnaires and in-person interviewing. The results of this research show that District 13 has the highest level of Food Insecurity, with 70% of residents unable to have sufficient food. Subsequently, district 1 has 65% of people unable to have sufficient calories, district 16 has 62 %and district 8 has 61 %. This paper aims to highlight the efforts of Afghanistan in alleviating food insecurity with a focus on the impact of COVID-19, unfair government policies, bad security, weak infrastructure, low literacy level, medical services shortage, high unemployment rate and lack of modern technology that hinder Afghanistan from accessing enough food. We conclude that Afghanistan would need to develop update policies to mitigate food insecurity.

The role of monetary policy tools in addressing global economic crises in high-income countries (Covid 19 crisis as an example)

The role of monetary policy tools in addressing global economic crises in high-income countries (Covid 19 crisis as an example)

Employment trends in the world and a reference perspective for university graduates in Vietnam in of the period before and after the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global economic crisis, endangering the health, jobs and income of millions of people around the world. The strict containment measures adopted by many countries to contain the increase in infections have created a significant drag on most economic and social activities. The decline in total hours worked and the decline in workforce participation are unprecedented in peacetime. There are signs that many economies around the world are in sharp and deep recession and have reached the bottom. Ensuring that the recovery is swift and sustainable and rebuilding a more resilient and inclusive labor market remain significant challenges for us. In this context, the Vietnam case study has demonstrated that unemployment rates and workers receiving wages below the minimum wage have increased, while temporary layoffs and job quality have increased, and wages fell again. The goal of this article, the authors will learn and research the following issues: Overview of the employment situation in the world during and after the COVID-19 pandemic; Reference perspective on the trend of working with university graduates in Vietnam after the COVID-19 pandemic; and some conclusions & recommendations for Vietnam related to the research issue.

THE NATIONAL STATE IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION AND GLOBAL DEMOCRACY

The article provides a theoretical and methodological analysis of the processes of globalization and global democracy, examining how these processes alter the position, role, and functions of the modern nation-state while it contends with challenges posed by globalization yet strives to maintain its sovereignty.
 It is characterized that under the pressure of globalization, changes are occurring in the political and economic spheres that influence nation-states, leading to a gradual erosion of their sovereignty and increased susceptibility to economic influences from other states or transnational corporations.
 It is noted that the processes of globalization demonstrate the inability of states to fully protect their own interests and citizens from global economic and financial crises, informational impacts, environmental degradation, etc. In such circumstances, the nation-state is no longer the primary actor in the system of international relations, resulting in weakened centralized state institutions, shifts in the perception of state sovereignty, and the emergence of new structures within the global governance system.
 It is substantiated that global democracy, as a phenomenon introduced by the processes of globalization, is a form of implementation of the universal system of political democratic values as the basis for building a democratic society and the formation of public institutions that are the basis of democracy.
 It is determined that global democracy is a process of relations between states based on a certain value and normative basis that unites them and keeps them active in the field of certain relations, characterized by the improvement of interconnection between states through the formation of a single information space and the need for a new political order of the world.
 It is emphasized that the processes of globalization and global democracy are objective processes of convergence of political systems of the world, formation of a policy of common standards and approaches to solving common civilization problems.
 It is concluded that for Ukraine, in the context of globalization and global democracy, the main factors of strengthening its sovereignty are the establishment of relations with the international community on the principles of democratic governance, development of a competitive economy, democratization of all spheres of public life, socio-political unity of a civil nation, territorial integrity, and sustainable development of the state.

Analyzing global trade network resilience during economic crises: A model-based exploration of countries' interactions, USDX variation, and number of exporting countries

The global trade network can be viewed from different perspectives. The common ones are the volume of exports and the number of countries that export products. The variation in number of exporting countries for products has been studied over the years. The U.S. dollar has been used for invoicing exportation in global trade, and its variation in values against global currencies negatively affects the volume of exports and the number of exporters. United States dollar indices (USDX) have been globally used to measure the values of global currencies against the U.S. dollar. Many studies have been done on the effect of the global economic crisis on global trade networks. However, scholars have not yet developed a complex dynamical model and established the critical transitional or threshold values that separate the resilient network of exporting countries from a non-resilient one. This study modelled the dynamic representation of a complex network of exporting countries by modifying Lotka-Volterra models. Using the developed model and empirical data USDX and export data of 161 countries from 1971 to 2020, the critical transition values have been calculated for different phases of economic crises. This study references five major crises, revealing that the variation of U.S. dollar indices significantly impacts global network system resilience. It suggests that policies reducing trade restrictions among trading partners are more important than controlling variation in U.S. dollar indices. This information will be crucial in addressing future crises like the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

Decisions with general scope in the light of special sectoral regulations in the Hungarian administrative system

AbstractIn the 21st century, the two administrative instruments that have the greatest impact on the legal situation of members of society, administrative enforcement and administrative legislation, have been and are being confronted with a number of social challenges (global economic crisis, refugee crisis, epidemics and pandemics). The challenges of the 21st century require public intervention to provide a rapid, accurate and effective response to the problems that arise, while ensuring legality and the protection of the rights of the citizens. The first responses to social problems are provided by sectoral regulations, which may conflict with general rules of administrative procedure. The study analyses administrative decisions of general scope in the light of special sectoral regulation and review the points of conflict with general rules of administrative procedure. The study concludes with a proposal.

Pınar BEDİRHANOGLU, Çağlar DÖLEK, Funda HÜLAGÜ and Özlem KAYGUSUZ (Eds.), Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion (London, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2020)

Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties. It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends. It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments.