Geopolitical Tensions Research Articles

Challenges to Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa in the Context of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict

In this article, the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is analyzed. With Ukraine being recognized as one of the major global grain producers and exporters, the conflict is seen as posing a significant challenge to MENA countries, which are heavily dependent on grain imports from Ukraine. The importance of global linkages in food supply chains and their influence on regional food security is highlighted in this context. Utilizing secondary data from 2002 to 2021 obtained from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the study focuses on demography and food security, analyzing how these factors intertwine with grain export dynamics. The escalating hostilities have disrupted transportation routes, damaged infrastructure, and hindered logistics, resulting in substantial export volume reductions. Geopolitical tensions have exacerbated these effects, diminishing confidence among MENA grain importers. The study highlights how these disruptions have influenced global supply chains, prices, and agricultural product availability, with a specific focus on the MENA region’s challenges in food security, compounded by conflicts, climate change, and import dependence. A detailed demographic analysis reveals the impact of population changes on food demand and distribution, offering insights into how population growth and urbanization, alongside shifts in malnutrition and obesity rates, affect food security. The study concludes that the MENA region’s increasing reliance on food imports, coupled with climatic and political variabilities, underscores its growing vulnerability to global supply chain disruptions and the need for robust strategies to address these challenges.

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Africa in the Pre-Covid Era: The Role of Control of Corruption

There is evidence of recent rising public debts and low economic growth in Africa which is being attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine war. With the evidence of also recent high corruption amidst low investments in Africa, it is thought-provoking to find empirically how public debt impact on economic growth per capita among African countries even before the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine war with the mediation of control of corruption. The study used secondary data from the World Development Indicators, World Economic Outlook, and Worldwide Governance Indicators. The annual data spans from 1996 to 2019 for 45 countries. The study deployed a dynamic panel data estimation technique and controlled for other variables. The findings show a negative impact of gross debt percentage of GDP on economic growth but a positive interactive effect of excessive accumulation of gross public debt and the control of corruption on economic growth per capita among countries in Africa before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this COVID era of high public debt, governments can reduce their indebtedness by financing appropriate infrastructure while controlling corruption to increase the economic growth in their countries.

Transboundary vegetation fire smoke and expressed sentiment: Evidence from Twitter

This paper examines the impact of transboundary vegetation fire smoke on the real-time sentiment of Twitter users in Southeast Asia, including countries such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. We leverage the exogenous variation in wind directions for identification. We find that an increase in upwind fires by one standard deviation reduces the sentiment score by 0.5 percent of a standard deviation (after netting out the impact of unobserved local socioeconomic factors). During peak fire seasons, our estimate translates into sentiment damages comparable to the average Sunday-to-Monday sentiment drop. The adverse sentiment impact exhibits significant variation across countries and intensifies with factors such as the number of upwind fires, income levels, proximity to fires, and limited adaptability on weekdays. We show that cross-boundary air pollution is the primary channel, with smoke from neighboring countries exerting a greater impact on sentiment than domestically produced smoke. These findings underscore the psychosocial costs and geopolitical tensions associated with cross-border air pollution spillovers.

On the Asymmetric Relation between Inflation and Growth in Mexico: A NARDL Approach

The effects of various geopolitical tensions, conflicts between countries and the global post-pandemic COVID-19 have caused an acceleration in the price level in many countries around the world. This research focuses on Mexico since its monetary policy has created intricate interactions between inflation and growth in the short and long term, maintaining recently one of the highest real interest rates in Latin America (on average 5.75% vs. the US 2.3%). This paper examines the asymmetric link between the National Consumer Price Index and the Global Economic Activity Index in Mexico during the period 1994–2023. To do this, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Delay (NARDL) model is used with monthly data, which will allow the relationship between both variables to be more adequately investigated. The main empirical finding is that upward or downward shocks to the consumer price index have caused different effects in magnitude and sign on economic growth over time. Finally, several reasonable, practical, and feasible recommendations are provided for the design of the monetary policy considering non-linear effects.

Russia’s Security Perceptions and Arctic Governance

Russia’s war in Ukraine further strained Russia’s relations with the West and negatively influenced Arctic regional governance, especially after seven members of the Arctic Council paused cooperation with Russia. The rationale of the suspension was to express disapproval by seven Arctic states of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. However, the suspension of cooperation with Russia within the Arctic Council format prompted some observers to question the relevance and utility of the institution. Russia never expressed its wish to leave the Council and continues to express its desire for multilateral cooperation in the region. This raises the question: Can Russia’s assertive stance in Ukraine coexist with peaceful cooperation in the Arctic? In order to answer this question, this article addresses the following questions: How does the geopolitical tension shape Russia’s approach to Arctic governance? And what is the role of military and economic security in Russia’s Arctic policy? The article uses a comparative method combined with discourse analysis to establish a change in Russia’s view on Arctic governance before and after the war in Ukraine.

Strategi Bisnis Internasional Untuk Menghadapi Tantangan Ekonomi dan Politik di Tahun 2024

The year 2024 will be a year full of economic and political challenges for companies operating in international markets. Some of the factors that may affect international business are the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, and digital transformation. This article aims to identify and analyze international business strategies that can help companies face these challenges. The strategies discussed include strategic alliances, product diversification, segmented digital marketing, flexible pricing adjustments, and international human resource management. The article also provides examples of companies that have successfully implemented these strategies in various markets. This article is expected to provide insights and inspiration for business people who want to improve their performance and competitiveness in the international market

Рpinciples of developing the russian cultural identity of university students in foreign language classes

Relevance. In the context of increasing geopolitical tensions in the world the development of Russian cultural identity of students in foreign language classes is of particular importance. Modern Russian society needs competent, creative and active specialists, whose training will not be relevant and sufficient without acquiring knowledge not only about the culture of the countries of the language being studied, but also about their own culture. In the current situation, a foreign language has priority importance as a means of intercultural communication and generalization of the spiritual heritage of the countries and peoples of the studied and native languages.The Research problem: what are the principles of development of Russian cultural identity that contribute to the formation of foreign language communicative competence? The purpose of the research is to substantiate the implementation of the principles of development of Russian cultural identity of technical university students in foreign language classes that contribute to the formation of foreign language communicative competence. The research methods used include pedagogical observation, study of psychological and pedagogical literature, retrospective analysis of teaching activities, assessment, study of the work experience of teachers of higher educational institutions. The results of the research are the following: the role of a foreign language in the formation of Russian cultural identity of students has been determined; principles for the development of Russian cultural identity of students in foreign language classes at a university have been formulated and examples of their implementation given. Key conclusions: the principles of ethnocultural orientation of teaching and the use of PR technologies in foreign language classes, the purpose of which is the development of the Russian cultural identity of students at a technical university, contribute to the formation of foreign language communicative competence.

Interculturality as Paradigm to Promote Social and Environmental Sustainability

In today’s rapidly changing multicultural world characterized by numerous challenges ranging from geopolitical tensions and interreligious conflicts to environmental degradation, it is imperative to have a paradigm of cultural interaction that promotes social and environmental sustainability. Interculturality has emerged as a relevant framework for addressing these challenges. This paper explores the potential of interculturality to contribute to a more sustainable future by integrating social and ecological dimensions embedded in the paradigm. Therefore, this paper sets out to address the following: (1) Present the concept of interculturality and its relevance to the contemporary milieu; (2) Discuss the contribution of interculturality to promoting social sustainability; (3) Discuss the relationship between culture and nature; and (4) Discuss the potential of interculturality to contribute to environmental sustainability.
 This paper contributes to ongoing discourse on interculturality by demonstrating not only its relevance to social sustainability but also its implications for environmental sustainability, including raising awareness about the impact of development on culturally significant natural areas, protecting indigenous communities’ rights, and valuing diverse cultural practices for biodiversity management, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and inclusive society that values all cultures.

Geopolitical risks and climate change stocks

This paper aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR), threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) on returns and volatilities of regional climate change stocks under different market conditions, employing quantile regressions. Our main results suggest that climate change stock returns positively (negatively) respond to GPR in bullish (bearish) market states, however the effect is not uniform across the regions. The volatilities mainly show a positive response to geopolitical tensions; geopolitical acts appear to have a more pronounced impact on volatilities than geopolitical threats. We further find that GPR leads to higher volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war, creating heightened uncertainty. Overall, the results reveal that geopolitical risks have an asymmetric and heterogenous impact on climate change stocks. The results provide significant insights and implications for financial market participants and policy makers.

The Political Reckoning in a Post-Nuclear Use Landscape

ABSTRACT The international landscape, particularly in Northeast Asia, is portrayed as volatile due to the presence of nuclear-armed states, territorial disputes, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Considering this reality, this paper delves into the political ramifications of potential nuclear use in the Northeast Asia. It scrutinizes conceivable power shifts, the evolving role of anti-nuclear groups, and the broader impact on security policies. The exploration extends to scenarios post-nuclear use, encompassing positive, negative, and complex outcomes. The paper concludes by offering recommendations to policymakers, underscoring the imperative of substantive dialogues on arms control and conflict resolution to avert catastrophic nuclear events. Overall, the paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted challenges posed by nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia and offers valuable insights for crafting a more secure global environment. Recent developments point towards a disconcerting unraveling of arms control structures and a growing threat to the nonproliferation regime. The paper underscores the dynamic evolution of nuclear deterrence, highlighting the strategic use of emerging technologies by states to reshape the balance of vulnerabilities.

Do domestic and external geopolitical risks matter for food availability: implications for global food security

ABSTRACT This paper investigated the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on national food availability and distinguished the differentiated effects caused by geopolitical shocks at domestic and international food suppliers. We proposed an external geopolitical risk index (EGPR) to identify a country’s vulnerability to geopolitical turmoil in its food suppliers. Our findings show that country-specific GPR adversely affects domestic production, and EGPR reduces food imports. Furthermore, the food availability of countries with low GDP is more easily susceptible to geopolitical unrest. Overall, this paper offers helpful hints for policymakers worldwide regarding the prevention of food security risks triggered by geopolitical tensions.

Fostering Economic Growth and Global Trade through Digitalized International Transport Corridors: Examining the Role of the eTIR Convention in the Proposed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railways for Uzbekistan's Development

This study investigates the intricate dynamics of fostering economic growth and global trade through digitalized international transport corridors (ITCs), focusing on the proposed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway project within the framework of the eTIR Convention. Employing a comprehensive mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative data from official sources, the research delves into the transformative potential of the CKU railway in linking Central Asia to China and Europe, thereby amplifying Uzbekistan's economic growth and global trade. Despite the project's potential to bolster trade competitiveness, stimulate regional integration, and foster economic diversification, the analysis uncovers challenges such as geopolitical tensions, environmental impacts, and financial sustainability, which could impede seamless implementation and operation. Leveraging the ARDL (2,1) model, the study reveals a direct dependency between the GDP growth rate and income from China to Uzbekistan, suggesting a substantial linear relationship. However, caution is advised in drawing definitive policy or economic implications, as further nuanced analysis and contextual understanding are imperative. The paper concludes by offering nuanced policy recommendations to enhance the governance and management of ITCs in Uzbekistan, emphasizing the necessity for a holistic and adaptive approach to navigate the complexities of such transformative projects, especially within the digitalized landscape and the context of the eTIR Convention.

Детерминанты отношения населения России к экологическим вопросам: роль геополитической напряженности

It is widely recognised that public interest in environmental issues is a driver of low-carbon economic development, owing to the fact that the degree of community concern about environmental quality is tightly associated with the implementation of green initiatives by business and government. In its turn, public support for environmental protection is a function of socio-economic, cultural, historical and political conditions. Russia is an economy that has managed to increase its prosperity and qualitatively transform institutions over the past two decades. The country’s economic growth has been accompanied by environmental degradation, especially at the regional level. More importantly, social and economic upswing in Russia was associated with greater involvement of the population in environmental protection issues. There has been a steady increase in the share of the population who prefer environmental protection to economic growth, and the proportion of Russians who are convinced that human activity has a significant impact on the environment has considerably grown. However, at the current stage of development, sociological surveys indicate a significant decrease in the interest of Russian citizens in environmental issues. Escalating geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic turbulence may contribute to the fact. This study aims to identify the determinants of the Russian population’s attitudes towards environmental issues over the period of 1995–2023, with a special focus on the role of geopolitical tensions. The results obtained by means of the sophisticated econometric techniques – Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) – indicate that income level, education, as well as the spread of information and telecommunication technologies (ICT) stimulate the involvement of Russian citizens in environmental issues, while geopolitical tensions reduce the share of the population that prioritises environmental protection. At the same time, the study sheds light on the fact that maintaining the interest of the Russian population towards environmental issues is most relevant in the context of high geopolitical risks, as environmental degradation is most likely to be observed during this period.

“You belong with me”- Taylor Swift event exclusivity and geopolitical tensions

Music concerts have been a common and popular event type for destinations, as artists take their performances to their audiences around the world. However, reports of destinations negotiating exclusive rights to events supported by governmental grants have emerged. Using the example of Taylor Swift’s allegedly exclusive contract to perform only in Singapore during the Eras Tour as a case study, this research note illuminates how music concerts are not just for entertainment purposes but are business opportunities to enhance a destination’s brand and stimulate tourism benefits and play important geopolitical roles in shaping diplomatic relationships and political goodwill. The Taylor Swift and Singapore case study also prompts future debates and discussions as to whether destinations ought to follow suit in terms of executing exclusive contracts for artists and major events, thereby shifting event management and artist/organizations’ expectations and possibly (over)politicizing events management amidst much talk of government support and subsidies.

Geopolitical Implications of Transboundary Rivers in South Asia Region

The Contemporary era is Characterised by intensified competition for water resources among the nations,in the twenty –first century’s global order, hydro-politics emerged as a crucial enemy that significantlyimpacted the strategic landscape and national security has become closely linked to several geopolitics’factors. South Asia is grappling with numerous internal issues, the three major river systems the Ganges,Indus, and Brahmaputra River basins serves as the geopolitical tensions in the region. The researchexamines the historical context and ongoing conflicts between India, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh overthese critical water resources. It investigates the causes of disputes, such as dam development and water-sharing agreements, as well as their implications for regional stability. The analysis emphasizes the criticalneed for collaborative management and long-term solutions to solve water security and promote regionalharmony.

Економічна стійкість як базовий концепт у сфері національної безпеки

The article is devoted to the disclosure of the theoretical foundations of the study of economic resilience in relation to national security. Increased attention to the conception of national resilience and the economic basis for its provision is due to the expansion of the range of new threats due to the growth of global interdependence, uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in international relations. The results of the analysis of scientific publications showed that with the unconditional recognition of the importance of ensuring economic resilience in the scientific community, there is an ambivalence of views regarding its essence and place in the structure of national economic security. It is determined that despite the complexity and versatility of the concept of resilience, in the general case, the related conception can be characterized as the ability of a system to constantly develop and adapt to turbulence, while maintaining its main function and structure. The disclosure of the chronology of the development of the conception of resilience confirms the actualization of approaches to ensuring national security under the influence of new geopolitical threats and the key role of resilience in national security strategies. The analysis of the conception of resilience in the interpretation of NATO and the EU allows us to conclude that its understanding correlates with the mission, principles and values of international organizations. It is substantiated that, despite the discursive nature and contrasts in interpretation, economic resilience is a key component of the national security strategy. The fundamental differences between security and resilience are defined as interrelated, but different conceptions, which lie in the nature of measures to ensure them. It is noted that ensuring economic security as a complex of measures to prevent the materialization or escalation of threats is proactive and preventive. In turn, economic resilience is associated with the ability to adapt to threats and minimize their negative impact if they materialize, i.e. involves the implementation of both proactive and reactive actions. It is stated that further studies of economic resilience as a basic conception in the sphere of national security require identification of indicators of its assessment and prerequisites for ensuring in the format of systems of collective security and defense.

The impact of inclusive tourism on the sustainable development of the host community

The growth of domestic tourism in Russia, driven by geopolitical tensions, poses numerous challenges to the sustainable development of local communities. This study examines the impact of inclusive tourism, especially for people with disabilities, on host communities. People with disabilities, who make up a significant portion of domestic tourists, face unique barriers and stigma that impact their travel experiences and interactions with locals. This study aims to assess the impact of inclusive tourism on the sustainable development of host communities, focusing on the balance between the needs of tourists with disabilities and the sociocultural dynamics of residents. For this purpose, a comprehensive analysis was carried out using reviews of the legislative framework, statistical data, sociological surveys and expert assessments. The study used quantitative data from a household budget sample survey, as well as qualitative information from case studies and anecdotal evidence. Key findings suggest that unregulated domestic tourism growth can strain infrastructure and provoke conflicts between tourists and residents. Surveys show regional differences in local attitudes towards tourists, with some regions showing significant dissatisfaction. The study highlights the need to develop inclusive tourism, taking into account the local sociocultural context, reducing negative stereotypes and promoting positive interactions between hosts and guests. Implementing inclusive tourism policies that promote mutual respect and understanding between tourists and residents is essential for sustainable tourism development. The study highlights the importance of community participation in tourism planning to ensure equitable and harmonious development that benefits both tourists and locals.

Naval Cooperation between Russia and China During Geopolitical Tensions in the World

Naval Cooperation between Russia and China During Geopolitical Tensions in the World

МІЖНАРОДНІ ФІНАНСОВІ ПОТОКИ В КРАЇНИ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЇ ТА СХІДНОЇ ЄВРОПИ ПІСЛЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ФІНАНСОВОЇ КРИЗИ 2008 РОКУ: СТРУКТУРНІ ОСОБЛИВОСТІ

In our study, we will focus on determining the dynamics and structural changes in the flows of foreign capital to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe after the global financial crisis of 2008. For the analysis, we selected a group of Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union: Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as the post-Soviet European countries - Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Moldova. We chose three periods for the study: the first period from the beginning of liberal reforms to the present (1991-2021); the second period from macroeconomic stabilization to the global financial crisis (1994-2008); the third period covers the post-crisis period before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war (2009-2021). The article examines the structure of the inflow of foreign capital to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe before the global financial crisis of 2008 and in the period after it. It was determined that the share of direct and portfolio foreign investments in the structure of foreign capital increased significantly in the post-crisis period. In the post-crisis period of 2009-2021, there was a significant increase in the average value of the stock of foreign direct investment to 41.2% of GDP and a more than two-fold decrease in the volatility of FDI inflows, which amounted to 5.2, as well as a 1.5-fold increase in portfolio foreign investments and a drastic reduction in the volatility of this type of foreign capital to 2.69. As for other investments, they remained at the pre-crisis level, but volatility decreased by a quarter. An econometric study of the influence of the stock of foreign direct investment and foreign debt per worker on the level of economic well-being in the CEE countries was conducted, which proved the strengthening of the role of foreign direct investment after the global financial crisis and the lack of influence of foreign debt. In our opinion, the governments of the CEE countries have focused on the economic policy of slowing down foreign capital flows and avoiding financial risks associated with foreign debt flows. Today's geopolitical tensions, the Russian-Ukrainian war will contribute to the deepening of these processes, increasing the influence of states on limiting international financial flows.

Transformation of approaches to mineral resource auditing for augmentation of Russia’s wealth in the current political situation

Background. The mineral resource base is a strategic component of Russia’s economic security and a critical tool for strengthening the country’s position in the international arena. At the same time, economic turmoil and geopolitical tensions negatively affect the quality of resource auditing in the oil and gas and other extractive industries of the Russian Federation. This have an effect on the investment attractiveness of exploration projects, which are highly important for the continuous reproduction of the country’s mineral resource base.Aim and objectives. In order to consider the potential of mineral resource auditing for augmentation of Russia’s wealth, the following objectives were undertaken: 1) to analyze the structure and state of audit methods in Russian extractive industries; 2) to study the prospects and possibilities of applying international experience in auditing Russian extractive industries; 3) to apply new tools and approaches to optimize auditing activities in the domestic practice.Materials and methods. Both domestic and foreign research publications were reviewed, along with the reports of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment of the Russian Federation and the Federal Subsoil Resources Management Agency, analytical materials and audit guides by CAAF, INTOSAI, and AFROSAI-E McKinsey. A set of general scientific and special methods Y were used: forecasting methods to assess the state and prospects of financing geological exploration in the Russian Federation; methods of comparative analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction to study the international experience of auditing in the extractive industry.Results. It is proposed to attract financial resources at various stages of geological exploration through the creation of special-purpose direct investment funds. Attention is also paid to such methods as streaming and acquisition of fixed profit margins from production activities in exchange for an advance payment, which can be applied at later stages of geological exploration.Conclusion. In order to attract investments for geological exploration of subsoil resources, Russian companies should apply new tools and approaches, as well as international best practices. In combination, this will facilitate the process of attracting funds alternative to budgetary resources, thereby diversifying the methods of financial support, and will increase the investment attractiveness of the Russian geological industry.