МІЖНАРОДНІ ФІНАНСОВІ ПОТОКИ В КРАЇНИ ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЇ ТА СХІДНОЇ ЄВРОПИ ПІСЛЯ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ФІНАНСОВОЇ КРИЗИ 2008 РОКУ: СТРУКТУРНІ ОСОБЛИВОСТІ

Abstract

In our study, we will focus on determining the dynamics and structural changes in the flows of foreign capital to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe after the global financial crisis of 2008. For the analysis, we selected a group of Central and Eastern European countries that joined the European Union: Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as the post-Soviet European countries - Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Moldova. We chose three periods for the study: the first period from the beginning of liberal reforms to the present (1991-2021); the second period from macroeconomic stabilization to the global financial crisis (1994-2008); the third period covers the post-crisis period before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war (2009-2021). The article examines the structure of the inflow of foreign capital to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe before the global financial crisis of 2008 and in the period after it. It was determined that the share of direct and portfolio foreign investments in the structure of foreign capital increased significantly in the post-crisis period. In the post-crisis period of 2009-2021, there was a significant increase in the average value of the stock of foreign direct investment to 41.2% of GDP and a more than two-fold decrease in the volatility of FDI inflows, which amounted to 5.2, as well as a 1.5-fold increase in portfolio foreign investments and a drastic reduction in the volatility of this type of foreign capital to 2.69. As for other investments, they remained at the pre-crisis level, but volatility decreased by a quarter. An econometric study of the influence of the stock of foreign direct investment and foreign debt per worker on the level of economic well-being in the CEE countries was conducted, which proved the strengthening of the role of foreign direct investment after the global financial crisis and the lack of influence of foreign debt. In our opinion, the governments of the CEE countries have focused on the economic policy of slowing down foreign capital flows and avoiding financial risks associated with foreign debt flows. Today's geopolitical tensions, the Russian-Ukrainian war will contribute to the deepening of these processes, increasing the influence of states on limiting international financial flows.