Geo-economic Power Research Articles

Can de-risking avert supply chain precarity in the face of China-U.S. geopolitical tensions? From sanctions to semiconductor resilience and national security

As a main driver of geoeconomic power, technological supremacy is at stake in the current zero-sum tech war between the U.S. and China. Semiconductor chips have become an emerging geopolitical frontier in the rivalry of the two powers. Since the confrontation has intensified, the U.S. seeks to weaponise its dominant position in the global semiconductor value chain (GSVC). Some industrial policy-driven geostrategic approaches inform the race to reduce the GSVC vulnerabilities. The tit for tat nature of sanctions risks making multilateralism decline and further undermining the effectiveness of the global governance regime. Shifts in rising economic competition highlight the constraints on collective action. It remains critical as to whether the international economic and legal system can survive the current fractured geopolitics, and whether the new thinking on global governance could be viable for a non-zero-sum game.

Structural Transformation Through a Multi-vector Geo-economic Governance? BRI and Upgrading of the Uzbek Gas Industry

Gas is a strategic source of energy and Uzbekistan ranks 11th in the world for mining and 14th for reserves. The article investigates whether and how the BRI and Chinese capital have contributed to Uzbek structural transformation in the gas industry. It argues that although the Chinese BRI seems to adopt an extractive approach to acquire natural resources, its interventions are also an opportunity for multi-directional forms of upgrading in the gas sector, both directly and indirectly. Directly, first the Chinese involvement as a consumer has reconfigured geo-economic power relations around gas. Secondly, there is an unprecedented support by China to national infrastructure development, both as a lender and a producer. Thirdly, China is the main source of machineries to enable energy transmission. Despite these factors, BRI and the Chinese presence are contributing only marginally to upgrading. A coordinated industrial strategy coming from the Uzbek state remains a necessary condition for structural transformation.

Geoeconomic Power Europe: When Global Power Competition Drives EU Integration

AbstractThe European Union's (EU's) ‘geoeconomic turn’ denotes the growing integration of international security considerations into EU economic policies. This article introduces the concept of ‘geoeconomic power Europe’ to show how this development has the potential to renew debates on the nature of EU power. Most existing conceptualisations of EU power – whether characterised as civilian, normative, market based, regulatory or liberal – tend to focus on the EU's endogenous characteristics. However, the added value of the concept of geoeconomic power is that it redirects attention to the ‘co‐constitution’ loop between global power competition and the evolution of EU power. In this article, I present an analytical framework that highlights the drivers of EU geoeconomic power and distinguishes between systemic pressures, the intra‐EU policy process and the impact on EU power. I conclude that the concept of geoeconomic power Europe can help to bridge theories of international security and economic interdependence, particularly neorealism and neofunctionalism.

EU Geoeconomic Power in the Clean Energy Transition

AbstractThe energy transition is affected by a ‘double geopoliticisation’: global competition for hydrocarbons has increased, due to the sudden turmoil in the energy markets, whilst the urgency to clean energy transition has exacerbated competition for green technological leadership. This article investigates whether the EU has adapted its goals and instruments to these intertwined geopoliticisation pressures and, if so, under what conditions has it been able to wield geoeconomic power. Using Barnett and Duvall's taxonomy of power, this article argues that geoeconomic power presupposes a shift from diffuse to direct forms of power and theorises the factors that facilitate or constrain the EU's ability to exercise this type of power. This article finds that the EU has significantly transformed the goals and instruments of its external energy policy. Yet the extent of its geoeconomic power depends on a combination of often‐overlooked domestic enabling factors and the external geopolitical environment.

Hubungan Rusia-Ukraine Pasca Keruntuhan Kesatuan Soviet: Dari Perselisihan Kecil Ke Kancah Perang

After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine and Russia established good cooperation in various aspects despite some shifts in domestic issues. Ukraine adopted a policy of neutrality in its administration because it needed cooperation from various parties, including Russia and the West. However, everything changed when Ukraine expressed its desire to join NATO in 2008. This desire was welcomed by NATO but opposed by Russia, leading to an ongoing conflict with Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas. This study aims to explain the development of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and identify the triggering factors between the two countries. The library method was used to gather secondary information from books, journals, reports, newspapers, and credible Internet sources. The study found that Russia's attack on Ukraine was driven by the need to ensure its survival and sovereignty against major powers such as the US and NATO, which were increasingly approaching the Eastern Europe region. The study also found two factors that triggered the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, namely internal and external factors. External factors such as the expansion of power and influence of the United States, the European Union, and NATO approaching Russia's borders, as well as Russia's geo-economic power beyond its borders, played a role in triggering the conflict. Meanwhile, internal factors include the presence of Russian elite groups that play a role in making important state decisions and Russia's formidable military capabilities.

The Russo-European Gas Trade and the Position of Southeast Europe between the Great Actors: Neo-imperialism, Conflict–Cooperation Perpetuum, and Soft Balancing

Abstract The article analyses the Russian neo-imperialist strategy in the gas trade in Southeast Europe (SEE) and the reactions of the EU and the region’s countries to this. The first argument in the article is that the existence of favourable political, social and economic preconditions is necessary for the application of a neo-imperialist strategy. The second argument is that an individual country’s geographical position determines Russian interest in building transit pipelines on its territory. Because the gas trade exists in the framework of the conflict-cooperation perpetuum between the interested parties, the third argument is that this provokes a reaction from the EU and the affected countries in the form of soft balancing. This approach is intended to curb Russia’s power, but not to completely break a gas trade with this country. As the EU has been making efforts to counteract Russian geo-economic power by promoting diversification of the gas supply and funding new gas infrastructure projects, Russian influence in the region has been decreasing in recent years.

Types of Geoeconomic Power and Competition over Myanmar Before and During the Reform Era of the 2010s

Over the past decade, the United States, China, and Japan contested for influence in Myanmar, as the country began to emerge from decades of isolation and military rule. Despite the rich descriptions of rivalries between the United States and China, as well as Japan and China, the nature of geoeconomic power competition in Myanmar remains underarticulated. Popular accounts often use a magnitude-based concept of power to track how much power countries have gained or lost over Myanmar. However, the types of power may be equally important, particularly for understanding the geoeconomic dynamics in play. This article thus examines the geoeconomic power competition in Myanmar using a typology of interstate economic power relations. This typology expands the conventional framework centered on geographic distance to incorporate other types of geoeconomic power, such as deterritorialized financial regulatory power and the adjacent power exercised through shared borders. This approach contributes to a better understanding of the geoeconomic rivalries in Myanmar and across Southeast Asia.

China and Russia Policy in the 2021 Election and Beyond

Abstract The new German government resulting from the 2021 Bundestag election will have to revise and reshape the legacy of the Merkel era's policies on Russia and China. Germany's own interests as a geoeconomic power will have to be balanced against concerns about the values of these two illiberal states and the strategic challenges they pose. The new coalition government in Germany will have to find consensus between three parties that hold often conflicting views, led by a team with little foreign policy experience.

Fraught Relations: Saudi Ambitions and American Anger

The recalibration of Saudi foreign policy under Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MbS) reflects Riyadh’s changing assessment of its relationship with the United States and its ambition to become a full-fledged geo-economic power that is less constrained by the traditional pillars of Saudi statecraft. While much attention is being paid to the acrimonious relationship between MbS and US President Joe Biden, there are structural reasons for the growing divergence between the two countries. The October 2022 OPEC+ crisis over Saudi Arabia’s oil-production cut illustrates how Riyadh is willing to prioritise its financial and energy interests even at the risk of upsetting its long-time security partner.

Relations on thin ice: a narrative analysis of chinese governance in the Arctic

In a fractured governance architecture, the Arctic region is increasingly faced with complex challenges like climate change, indigenous rights and commercialisation. Shedding light on a sorely overlooked topic in the literature – China’s Arctic discourse and strategy – this article applies an inductive, social constructivist approach, utilising qualitative content analysis and constituent dimensions to analyse Chinese Arctic narratives. Seeking to answer the questions: “How has China attempted to position itself as a legitimate actor in the Arctic, and has it been accepted?” and “How will this impact governance architecture in the region?” the results show that China has been accepted a legitimate actor in Arctic governance via a discourse of scientific exploration and cultural ties. Further, an increasingly dissatisfied China is challenging Arctic governance, replacing its scientific engagement narrative with one of commercial engagement, geo-economic power and, ultimately, prestige.

السیاسة الإثیوبیة تجاه نهر النیل من منظور القوة الجیواقتصادیة المائیة

Ethiopia occupies a geographical position controlling the Nile River water, a source of its geoeconomic power that it seeks to exploit to shift the strategic balance in its favor within the framework of expanding its regional sphere of influence. The study aims at showing the extent of the impact of the hydro-geoeconomic power of Ethiopia on the countries of the Nile River region. In the analysis, the study uses the concept of hydro-geoeconomic power and the concept of the international river. It also focuses on theories of hegemony and the theory of power transition. In this context, the study presented the importance of the Nile River from the perspective of the hydro-geoeconomic approach. It also addressed the internal and external determinants of the Ethiopian policy towards the Nile Basin countries. It also reviewed the fundamentals of the Ethiopian policy towards the region. Finally, the study presented a final vision regarding the limits on the impact of the Ethiopian policy on the regional system of the Nile Basin countries and concluded in this regard that the rise of the Ethiopian hydro-geoeconomic power is mainly linked to its external relations which provide grants, financial aid, or assistance.

The Turkey-China rapprochement in the context of the BRI: a geoeconomic perspective

ABSTRACT This article examines how the rise of geoeconomics vis-à-vis geopolitics has influenced the Turkish-Chinese rapprochement. It focuses on the impacts of the rise of geoeconomics on the long-term military alliances established in the Cold War and the strategic autonomy of smaller states that were once primarily dependent on their great power allies for their economic and regime security. Besides, it deals with the case-specific factors pushing Turkey towards China such as the rising authoritarian tendencies in Turkey and Ankara's disagreements on regional security issues with its traditional Western allies. Those factors have had negative repercussions on Turkey's economy, while the government has been facing a strong domestic imperative to continue infrastructure and construction projects which had contributed to the rapid economic growth in the 2000s. This situation has facilitated China's geoeconomic power projections seeking to create asymmetrical interdependence with Turkey and to influence Ankara's significant political and economic decisions. This article also underlines the limits of Turkish-Chinese rapprochement like Turkey's long-standing interdependence with the West and the relatively small role played by China in the Turkish economy. It concludes that Sino-Turkish ‘geoeconomic rapprochement' would neither ensure Turkey’s economic recovery nor increase its strategic autonomy unless Turkish-Western relations are ameliorated.

The African flank of the Great Indo-Pacific Areal: Strategic significance and associated challenges

The “West to East shift” in the dynamics of global development and in defining trends of the world order restructuring goes hand in hand with a synchronous rearrangement of the balances of geopolitical and geoeconomic power from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific area. Those phenomena comply with the more general dialectical laws of the contemporary world development, one set of which relates, in particular, to the interconnection between the processes of globalization and regionalization, on the one hand, and the uneven development of states, on the other. In that context, the author proposes a concept that considers the Great Indo-Pacific Area (BITA) as a megazone that determines the near future of world dynamics. Unlike other proposed constructs of late under consideration, BITA encompasses all coastal states. It is neither limited nor divided by various alliances or geostrategic designs of the leading powers. The evolving post-globalization process of regionalization does not contradict the formation of BITA but, on the contrary, according to the author, constitutes a factor that ensures its long-term sustainability. The state and significance of the Western (African) flank of the BITA has so far been out of the focus of research attention. The author fills this gap by analyzing the system-forming factors of the subregion, its potential, geostrategic significance and the regional maritime strategies of the leading powers in it.

How realistic is the China–Pakistan–Iran economic corridor?

The economic and political influence of China in the Asian region is growing amidst global geopolitical challenges. Economic corridors such as the new Silk Road have been identified as enablers of strategic growth and geo-economic power development in a context of significant political instability. Beijing's strategic approach and the importance of Pakistan and Iran to its aspiration to realise China's dream through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are examined in this comparative study. The rising role of China in the region and its engagement with Iran and Pakistan and the part that these two countries can play need careful attention. Political and economic joint interests have brought together these three countries with significant links to China's economic corridor and energy projections. But the future of the partnership is very fragile as it is characterised by historical hostilities between Iran and Pakistan that can act as a major impendiment to China's ability to progress. In addition, economic and trade figures show an unbalanced relationship that clearly favours Chinese interests. The BRI and the Chinese plans for those territories still remain blurry as any long-term crisis that characterises fragile and complex international alliances.

On the Way to Global Leadership: Recent Shifts in China ‘s Geo-economic Power

On the Way to Global Leadership: Recent Shifts in China ‘s Geo-economic Power

Networks of International Relations, Structural Power, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Reminiscent of the ancient Silk Road formed during the Han Dynasty, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) evokes powerful memories of China’s glorious past and has significant implications on international relations. Through a network analysis approach, this paper critically examines how and under what conditions the BRI is able to shape the structure of geo-economic and geopolitical interactions in China’s image. Given the highly interdependent nature of the world today, a country’s ability to exert geo-economic and geopolitical power in the international system will not only depend on its inherent economic and military capabilities, but also its position in global networks. This paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of China’s network centrality in trade and security affairs from 1990 to 2014, drawing on novel data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions Project (ATOP). This paper argues that the BRI is likely to further enhance China’s central position in trade and global value chains (GVCs), but the overall structure of international security arrangements would remain largely unchanged, with the West still being highly dominant despite China’s rising political and military influence. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and leveraging research on network science, international political economy, and security studies, this paper employs a structural perspective in understanding the geo-economic and geopolitical consequences of the BRI.

Nature and Impact of Chinese and South African Engagement on the Development of the City of Lusaka

Abstract As Zambia’s chief administrative centre and a major financial, transportation, and manufacturing hub for the country, the City of Lusaka has become one of the fasted growing cities in Southern Africa. Encouraged by the Chinese government’s ‘going out’ policy, Chinese investment and trade with Zambia have risen dramatically since the 2000s. Chinese investment is increasingly shaping the growth of Lusaka City and its hinterland in significant ways. On the other hand, South Africa as a regional geo-economic power has also amplified its strategic engagement with Lusaka. The paper explores how these two geo-economic powers have shaped the development of the City of Lusaka. Findings show that investments from South Africa into the City are private capital backed and are predominantly in the retail and real estate sectors. Chinese engagement in the city are dominated by large government-related construction projects, which have often been state-backed. Analysing the findings through the lens of urban assemblage and polarisation, the paper argues that the City is increasingly becoming more socio-spatially divided with the poor being more adversely affected by the nature and location of investments.

Lost in Regulation: Nord Stream 2 and the Limits of the European Commission’s Geo-Economic Power

ABSTRACT Scholars of the EU’s external relations have long debated the question which ‘power’ the EU represents. When it comes to the EU’s external energy relations, there is a convergence of views that the Commission has begun to assert its regulatory power beyond its own borders. Yet, few scholars have attempted to open the black box of this ‘liberal mercantilist’ model. This paper aims to fill that gap by process tracing and explaining the Commission’s attempts to stymie the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Our analysis shows that the Commission has attempted, largely in vein, to achieve geopolitical ends through legal means. We find that this outcome can be explained through the lens of new integration theories. Our analysis illustrates both the limits of the Commission’s regulatory toolbox and its efforts to broaden its mandate and strengthen its regulatory powers.

Japan’s economic statecraft

Japan – with the world’s third-largest economy and a pacifist constitution that limits its military capability – has long used economic tools to pursue its international goals. However, China’s rise as a geo-economic power has driven the Abe administration to reshape its foreign-policy bureaucracy to compete with China in this regard and to recalibrate its approach to economic statecraft.

Očekivane tendencije BDP-a tri vodeće globalne ekonomije tokom 2020-ih - da li je na pomolu rebalans (geo)ekonomske moći?

Očekivane tendencije BDP-a tri vodeće globalne ekonomije tokom 2020-ih - da li je na pomolu rebalans (geo)ekonomske moći?