The Turkey-China rapprochement in the context of the BRI: a geoeconomic perspective

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article examines how the rise of geoeconomics vis-à-vis geopolitics has influenced the Turkish-Chinese rapprochement. It focuses on the impacts of the rise of geoeconomics on the long-term military alliances established in the Cold War and the strategic autonomy of smaller states that were once primarily dependent on their great power allies for their economic and regime security. Besides, it deals with the case-specific factors pushing Turkey towards China such as the rising authoritarian tendencies in Turkey and Ankara's disagreements on regional security issues with its traditional Western allies. Those factors have had negative repercussions on Turkey's economy, while the government has been facing a strong domestic imperative to continue infrastructure and construction projects which had contributed to the rapid economic growth in the 2000s. This situation has facilitated China's geoeconomic power projections seeking to create asymmetrical interdependence with Turkey and to influence Ankara's significant political and economic decisions. This article also underlines the limits of Turkish-Chinese rapprochement like Turkey's long-standing interdependence with the West and the relatively small role played by China in the Turkish economy. It concludes that Sino-Turkish ‘geoeconomic rapprochement' would neither ensure Turkey’s economic recovery nor increase its strategic autonomy unless Turkish-Western relations are ameliorated.