Networks of International Relations, Structural Power, and China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

Reminiscent of the ancient Silk Road formed during the Han Dynasty, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) evokes powerful memories of China’s glorious past and has significant implications on international relations. Through a network analysis approach, this paper critically examines how and under what conditions the BRI is able to shape the structure of geo-economic and geopolitical interactions in China’s image. Given the highly interdependent nature of the world today, a country’s ability to exert geo-economic and geopolitical power in the international system will not only depend on its inherent economic and military capabilities, but also its position in global networks. This paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of China’s network centrality in trade and security affairs from 1990 to 2014, drawing on novel data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions Project (ATOP). This paper argues that the BRI is likely to further enhance China’s central position in trade and global value chains (GVCs), but the overall structure of international security arrangements would remain largely unchanged, with the West still being highly dominant despite China’s rising political and military influence. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and leveraging research on network science, international political economy, and security studies, this paper employs a structural perspective in understanding the geo-economic and geopolitical consequences of the BRI.