Generate Susceptibility Maps Research Articles

Hydromechanical modeling of evolving post-wildfire regional-scale landslide susceptibility

Post-wildfire mass wasting is a major problem throughout many regions worldwide. Recent dramatic increases in global wildfire activities coupled with a shift in wildfire-prone elevation to higher altitudes raise the need to better predict post-fire rainfall-triggered landslides. Despite its importance, only a limited number of studies have investigated landslide susceptibility in areas hit by wildfires using hydromechanical models. However, most of these studies follow either qualitative or semi-quantitative approaches without explicitly considering the fire's effects on the impacted area's physical behavior. This study aims to develop and employ a physics-based framework to generate susceptibility maps of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in areas disturbed by wildfire. A coupled hydromechanical model considering unsaturated flow and root reinforcement is integrated into an infinite slope stability model to simulate the triggering of shallow landslides from rainfall. The impact of fire is considered through its effects on soil and land cover properties, near-surface processes, and canopy interception. The developed model is then integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to characterize the regional distribution of landslide potential and its variability considering topography, geology, land cover, and burn severity. The proposed framework was tested for a study site in Southern California. The site was burned in the San Gabriel Complex Fire in June 2016 and experienced widespread landsliding almost three years later following an extreme rainstorm in January 2019. The proposed framework could successfully model the location of observed shallow landslides. The model also revealed a significantly higher likelihood for slope failure in areas burned at moderate to high severities as opposed to unburned and low-burn severity areas. The findings of this study can be employed to predict the timing and general locations of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides following wildfires.

PyLandslide: A Python tool for landslide susceptibility mapping and uncertainty analysis

Mitigating the impacts of landslides and planning resilient infrastructure necessitates assessing the exposure to this hazard through, for example, susceptibility mapping involving the spatial integration of various contributing factors. Here, we introduce PyLandslide, an open-source Python tool that leverages machine learning and sensitivity analysis to quantify the weights of various contributing factors, estimate the associated uncertainties, and generate susceptibility maps. We apply PyLandslide to the case of rainfall-triggered landslides in Italy driven by historical precipitation data (1981–2023) and nine climate projections for the mid-century (2041–2050). Results highlight distance to roads as the most influential factor in determining landslide susceptibility in Italy, followed by slope. Our findings reveal an overall reduction in susceptibility in the mid-century compared to the historical period; however, the directional changes vary spatially. Uncertainty analysis should play a central role in decision-making on landslides, where weights are intricately linked to investments.

Improving Landslide Prediction: Innovative Modeling and Evaluation of Landslide Scenario with Knowledge Graph Embedding

The increasing frequency and magnitude of landslides underscore the growing importance of landslide prediction in light of factors like climate change. Traditional methods, including physics-based methods and empirical methods, are beset by high costs and a reliance on expert knowledge. With the advancement of remote sensing and machine learning, data-driven methods have emerged as the mainstream in landslide prediction. Despite their strong generalization capabilities and efficiency, data-driven methods suffer from the loss of semantic information during training due to their reliance on a ‘sequence’ modeling method for landslide scenarios, which impacts their predictive accuracy. An innovative method for landslide prediction is proposed in this paper. In this paper, we propose an innovative landslide prediction method. This method designs the NADE ontology as the schema layer and constructs the data layer of the knowledge graph, utilizing tile lists, landslide inventory, and environmental data to enhance the representation of complex landslide scenarios. Furthermore, the transformation of the landslide prediction task into a link prediction task is carried out, and a knowledge graph embedding model is trained to achieve landslide predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that the method improves the F1 score by 5% in scenarios with complete datasets and 17% in scenarios with sparse datasets compared to data-driven methods. Additionally, the application of the knowledge graph embedding model is utilized to generate susceptibility maps, and an analysis of the effectiveness of entity embeddings is conducted, highlighting the potential of knowledge graph embeddings in disaster management.

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Nepal’s Chure Region: A Geospatial Analysis

The Chure Hills, already vulnerable due to their fragile nature, face increased landslide risk, prompting the need for reliable susceptibility assessment. This study uses Poisson regression modeling to assess landslide susceptibility in two highly susceptible districts of the Chure region. Variance inflation factor (VIF) tests were conducted to ensure robustness, indicating no multicollinearity among the variables. Subsequently, Poisson regression analysis identified eight significant variables, among which geology, lineament density, elevation, relief, slope, rainfall, solar radiance, and land cover types emerged as important factors associated with landslide count. The analysis revealed that higher lineament density and slope were associated with lower landslide counts, indicating potential stabilizing geological and topographical influences. The categorical variable, namely geology, revealed that middle Siwalik, upper Siwalik, and quaternary geological formations were associated with lower landslide counts than lower Siwalik. Land cover types, including areas under forest, shrubland, grassland, agricultural land, water bodies, and bare ground, had a substantial significant positive association with landslide count. The generated susceptibility map that exhibited a substantial portion (23.32% in Dang and 5.22% in Surkhet) of the study area fell within the very-high-susceptibility categories, indicating pronounced landslide susceptibility in the Dang and Surkhet districts of the Chure hills. This study offers valuable insights into landslide vulnerability in the Chure region, serving as a foundation for informed decision-making, disaster risk reduction strategies, and sustainable land-use and developmental policy planning.

Susceptibility Mapping of Unhealthy Trees in Jiuzhaigou Valley Biosphere Reserve

Jiuzhaigou Valley is recognized as both a world natural heritage site and a biosphere reserve. Conducting research on vegetation health within its scope can provide a demonstration role for sustainable development research. In this study, we proposed a technology integration approach that combined remote sensing intelligent identification and quantitative retrieval, and achieved vegetation health monitoring and susceptibility mapping of unhealthy trees. Leveraging WorldView-2 high-resolution satellite images, unhealthy trees were elaborately identified through the object-oriented classification method employing spectral and texture features, with F1 Score exceeding 75%. By applying fuzzy operations on indices related to leaf pigment and canopy architecture, we ultimately generated susceptibility maps of unhealthy trees on Sentinel-2 satellite images, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) exceeding 0.85. Our findings underscore that the vegetation health in Jiuzhaigou Valley is predominantly influenced by human activities and geological hazards. The forests of Jiuzhaigou Valley exhibit a certain degree of resilience to geological disasters, while human activities have been continuously exerting adverse effects on forest health in recent years, necessitating heightened attention. The methodology proposed in this study for mapping unhealthy trees susceptibility presents a cost-effective solution that can be readily applied for vegetation health monitoring and early warning in analogous biosphere reserves.

Identifying Areas Prone to Windthrow Damage and Generating Susceptibility Maps Utilizing a Novel Vegetation Index Extracted from Sentinel-2A Imagery

Identifying Areas Prone to Windthrow Damage and Generating Susceptibility Maps Utilizing a Novel Vegetation Index Extracted from Sentinel-2A Imagery

Mapping Post-Earthquake Landslide Susceptibility Using U-Net, VGG-16, VGG-19, and Metaheuristic Algorithms

Landslides are among the most frequent secondary disasters caused by earthquakes in areas prone to seismic activity. Given the necessity of assessing the current seismic conditions for ensuring the safety of life and infrastructure, there is a rising demand worldwide to recognize the extent of landslides and map their susceptibility. This study involved two stages: First, the regions prone to earthquake-induced landslides were detected, and the data were used to train deep learning (DL) models and generate landslide susceptibility maps. The application of DL models was expected to improve the outcomes in both stages. Landslide inventory was extracted from Sentinel-2 data by using U-Net, VGG-16, and VGG-19 algorithms. Because VGG-16 produced the most accurate inventory locations, the corresponding results were used in the landslide susceptibility detection stage. In the second stage, landslide susceptibility maps were generated. From the total measured landslide locations (63,360 cells), 70% of the locations were used for training the DL models (i.e., convolutional neural network [CNN], CNN-imperialist competitive algorithm, and CNN-gray wolf optimizer [GWO]), and the remaining 30% were used for validation. The earthquake-induced landslide conditioning factors included the elevation, slope, plan curvature, valley depth, topographic wetness index, land cover, rainfall, distance to rivers, and distance to roads. The reliability of the generated susceptibility maps was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The CNN-GWO model (AUROC = 0.84 and RMSE = 0.284) outperformed the other methods and can thus be used in similar applications. The results demonstrated the efficiency of applying DL in the natural hazard domain. The CNN-GWO predicted that approximately 38% of the total area consisted of high and very high susceptibility regions, mainly concentrated in areas with steep slopes and high levels of rainfall and soil wetness. These outcomes contribute to an enhanced understanding of DL application in the natural hazard domain. Moreover, using the knowledge of areas highly susceptible to landslides, officials can actively adopt steps to reduce the potential impact of landslides and ensure the sustainable management of natural resources.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: Analysis of Different Feature Selection Techniques with Artificial Neural Network Tuned by Bayesian and Metaheuristic Algorithms

The most frequent and noticeable natural calamity in the Karakoram region is landslides. Extreme landslides have occurred frequently along Karakoram Highway, particularly during monsoons, causing a major loss of life and property. Therefore, it is necessary to look for a solution to increase growth and vigilance in order to lessen losses related to landslides caused by natural disasters. By utilizing contemporary technologies, an early warning system might be developed. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used nowadays across many industries. This paper’s major goal is to provide new integrative models for assessing landslide susceptibility in a prone area in the north of Pakistan. To achieve this, the training of an artificial neural network (ANN) was supervised using metaheuristic and Bayesian techniques: Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, Genetic algorithm (GA), Bayesian Optimization Gaussian Process (BO_GP), and Bayesian Optimization Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (BO_TPE). In total, 304 previous landslides and the eight most prevalent conditioning elements were combined to form a geospatial database. The models were hyperparameter optimized, and the best ones were employed to generate susceptibility maps. The obtained area under the curve (AUC) accuracy index demonstrated that the maps produced by both Bayesian and metaheuristic algorithms are highly accurate. The effectiveness and efficiency of applying ANNs for landslide mapping, susceptibility analysis, and forecasting were studied in this research, and it was observed from experimentation that the performance differences for GA, BO_GP, and PSO compared to BO_TPE were relatively small, ranging from 0.32% to 1.84%. This suggests that these techniques achieved comparable performance to BO_TPE in terms of AUC. However, it is important to note that the significance of these differences can vary depending on the specific context and requirements of the ML task. Additionally, in this study, we explore eight feature selection algorithms to determine the geospatial variable importance for landslide susceptibility mapping along the Karakoram Highway (KKH). The algorithms considered include Information Gain, Variance Inflation Factor, OneR Classifier, Subset Evaluators, principal components, Relief Attribute Evaluator, correlation, and Symmetrical Uncertainty. These algorithms enable us to evaluate the relevance and significance of different geospatial variables in predicting landslide susceptibility. By applying these feature selection algorithms, we aim to identify the most influential geospatial variables that contribute to landslide occurrences along the KKH. The algorithms encompass a diverse range of techniques, such as measuring entropy reduction, accounting for attribute bias, generating single rules, evaluating feature subsets, reducing dimensionality, and assessing correlation and information sharing. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights into the critical geospatial variables associated with landslide susceptibility along the KKH. These insights can aid in the development of effective landslide mitigation strategies, infrastructure planning, and targeted hazard management efforts. Additionally, the study contributes to the field of geospatial analysis by showcasing the applicability and effectiveness of various feature selection algorithms in the context of landslide susceptibility mapping.

Mapping of Mount Semeru Volcanic Mudflow Susceptibility Along the Rejali River using the GIS-based AHP-TOPSIS Ensemble Approach

Volcanic mudflow floods occur when rainfall runoff combines with volcanic material and flows downstream. These devastating events cause significant damage to infrastructure, disrupt economies, and result in injuries and casualties. One area where the flow of volcanic material greatly affects the situation is the Rejali River, which receives a substantial amount of volcanic debris from Mount Semeru. To address this issue and begin mitigating the associated risks, it is crucial to start by mapping the potential distribution of volcanic mudflow floods. Therefore, this study aimed to assess factors impacting volcanic mudflow flood susceptibility and to create a corresponding susceptibility map. The study employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to determine the influence of various factors and classify the areas, respectively. These methods were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) to enhance the analysis. The weighted analysis results showed that the most impactful factors conditioning volcanic mudflow floods, in descending order, were rainfall (42.40%), land cover (13.89%), elevation (13.39%), slope (12.51%), distance from the river (7.09%), soil type (6.58%), and rock distribution (4.13%). The TOPSIS calculation further highlighted that rainfall intensity between 104.03 and 109.65 mm day-1 had the greatest influence on susceptibility. The successful integration of AHP and TOPSIS methods with GIS helped develop a volcanic mudflow flood susceptibility model with an outstanding accuracy of 0.969. The model showed that approximately 46.40% of the areas along the Rejali River exhibited very high susceptibility to volcanic mudflow floods, while an additional 16.21% indicated high susceptibility and substantial risk in most regions. Therefore, the generated susceptibility map offered important insights for shaping future mitigation strategies and influencing policy decisions.

Cloud-based interactive susceptibility modeling of gully erosion in Google Earth Engine

The gully erosion susceptibility literature is largely dominated by contributions focused on model comparison. This has led to prioritize certain aspects and leave others underdeveloped as compared to other natural hazard applications. For instance, in gully erosion data-driven modeling most studies use different platforms when it comes to data management, modeling and conversion into predictive maps. This in turn has limited the scope to catchment-scales. In this manuscript, we opt to propose a tool where the whole modeling procedure is unified within the same cloud computing system, allowing one to get rid of potential errors caused by input/output operations but also to extend the study areas indefinitely, as cloud data-management tools easily offer access to global data. Specifically, we present an interactive tool for susceptibility modeling in Google Earth Engine (GEE), the Susceptibility Tool for GEE (STGEE). Our tool requires few input data and makes use of the breadth of predictors’ information available in GEE. In this cloud computing environment, binary classifiers typical of susceptibility models can be called and fed with information related to mapping units and any natural hazards’ distribution over the geographic space. We tested our tool to generate susceptibility estimates for gully erosion occurrences in a study area located in Sicily (Italy). The tool we propose is equipped with a series of functions to aggregate the predictors’ information in space and time over a mapping unit of choice. Here we chose a Slope Unit partition but any polygonal structure can be chosen by the user. Once this information is derived, our tool calls for a Random Forest classifier to distinguish locations prone to gully erosion from locations where this process is not probabilistically expected to develop. This is done while providing a modeling performance overview, accessible via a separate panel. Such performance can be calculated on the basis of a exploratory analysis where all the information is used to fit a benchmark model as well as a spatial k-fold cross-validation scheme. Ultimately, the predictive function can be interactively used to generate susceptibility maps in real time, for the study area as well as any study area of interest. To promote the use of our tool, we are sharing it in a GitHub repository accessible at this link: https://github.com/giactitti/STGEE . • A unified gully erosion modeling protocol is presented. • Only the spatial partition should be done in an external environment. • All other operations can be run within Google Earth Engine. • This ensure repeatable experiments accessible even for non-experts. • The Susceptibility Tool for GEE (STGEE) is open to everyone.

Embedded Feature Selection and Machine Learning Methods for Flash Flood Susceptibility-Mapping in the Mainstream Songhua River Basin, China

Mapping flash flood susceptibility is effective for mitigating the negative impacts of flash floods. However, a variety of conditioning factors have been used to generate susceptibility maps in various studies. In this study, we proposed combining logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models with embedded feature selection (EFS) to filter specific feature sets for the two models and map flash flood susceptibility in the mainstream basin of the Songhua River. According to the EFS results, the optimized feature sets included 32 and 28 features for the LR and RF models, respectively, and the composition of the two optimal feature sets was similar and distinct. Overall, the relevant vegetation cover and river features exhibit relatively high effects overall for flash floods in the study area. The LR and RF models provided accurate and reliable flash flood susceptibility maps (FFSMs). The RF model (accuracy = 0.8834, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.9486) provided a better prediction capacity than the LR model (accuracy = 0.8634, AUC = 0.9277). Flash flood-prone areas are mainly distributed in the south and southwest and areas close to rivers. The results obtained in this study is useful for flash flood prevention and control projects.

Multi-hazard spatial modeling via ensembles of machine learning and meta-heuristic techniques

Considering the large number of natural disasters on the planet, many areas in the world are at risk of these hazards; therefore, providing an integrated map as a guide map for multiple natural hazards can be applied to save human lives and reduce financial losses. This study designed a multi-hazard map for three important hazards (earthquakes, floods, and landslides) to identify endangered areas in Kermanshah province located in western Iran using ensemble SWARA-ANFIS-PSO and SWARA-ANFIS-GWO models. In the first step, flood and landslide inventory maps were generated to identify at-risk areas. Then, the occurrence places for each hazard were divided into two groups for training susceptibility models (70%) and testing the models applied (30%). Factors affecting these hazards, including altitude, slope aspect, slope degree, plan curvature, distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to the faults, rainfall, lithology, and land use, were used to generate susceptibility maps. The SWARA method was used to weigh the subclasses of the influencing factors in floods and landslides. In addition, a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map was generated to investigate earthquakes in the study area. In the next step, the ANFIS machine learning algorithm was used in combination with PSO and GWO meta-heuristic algorithms to train the data, and SWARA-ANFIS-PSO and SWARA-ANFIS-GWO susceptibility maps were separately generated for flood and landslide hazards. The predictive ability of the implemented models was validated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE) methods. The results showed that the SWARA-ANFIS-PSO ensemble model had the best performance in generating flood susceptibility maps with ROC = 0.936, RMS = 0.346, and MSE = 0.120. Furthermore, this model showed excellent results (ROC = 0.894, RMS = 0.410, and MSE = 0.168) for generating a landslide map. Finally, the best maps and PGA map were combined, and a multi-hazard map (MHM) was obtained for Kermanshah Province. This map can be used by managers and planners as a practical guide for sustainable development.

Susceptibility Assessment for Landslide Initiated along Power Transmission Lines

The power network has a long transmission span and passes through wide areas with complex topography setting and various human engineering activities. They lead to frequent landslide hazards, which cause serious threats to the safe operation of the power transmission system. Thus, it is of great significance to carry out landslide susceptibility assessment for disaster prevention and mitigation of power network. We, therefore, undertake an extensive analysis and comparison study between different data-driven methods using a case study from China. Several susceptibility mapping results were generated by applying a multivariate statistical method (logistic regression (LR)) and a machine learning technique (random forest (RF)) separately with two different mapping-units and predictor sets of differing configurations. The models’ accuracies, advantages and limitations are summarized and discussed using a range of evaluation criteria, including the confusion matrix, statistical indexes, and the estimation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The outcome showed that machine learning method is well suitable for the landslide susceptibility assessment along transmission network over grid cell units, and the accuracy of susceptibility models is evolving rapidly from statistical-based models toward machine learning techniques. However, the multivariate statistical logistic regression methods perform better when computed over heterogeneous slope terrain units, probably because the number of units is significantly reduced. Besides, the high model predictive performances cannot guarantee a high plausibility and applicability of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps. The selection of mapping unit can produce greater differences on the generated susceptibility maps than that resulting from the selection of modeling methods. The study also provided a practical example for landslide susceptibility assessment along the power transmission network and its potential application in hazard early warning, prevention, and mitigation.

Flood susceptibility mapping using extremely randomized trees for Assam 2020 floods

The year 2020 proved disastrous for the north eastern state of India, Assam. The state witnessed terrible floods in the midst of the pandemic. The current study aims to better understand the role played by various factors that contributed to the deluge. To this end, the current study undertakes a flood susceptibility mapping using a seldom employed decision tree based ensemble machine learning technique of extremely randomized trees (ERT). The model was trained and tested on a flood inventory superimposed with 14 flood influencing factors, namely slope, elevation, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), topographic wetness index (TWI), slope length, land use, geology, soil type, topographic roughness index (TRI), rainfall, distance from rivers, plan and profile curvature. The model was compared against other mapping techniques and produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.901 outperforming others. The generated susceptibility map deduced the presence of low elevation, high rainfall and close proximity to rivers as major factors leading up to the disaster. It prophesizes a very high flood risk for approximately 18.32% of the study area concentrated in the northern and western part of the study region.

On the rainfall induced deep-seated and shallow landslide hazard in Taiwan

Abstract Due to vibrant tectonic activity in the Taiwan area, the rock formations are highly fractured. The weathered formations or colluviums are susceptible to landslides due to the dynamic change in river morphology. The impact of climate change makes the landslide hazard more significant over the past decade. Focusing on the slate formation region in the upstreams of the Tachia River, Wu River, and Chuoshui River in Taiwan, this study explored the behavior of deep-seated and shallow landslides. In order to more accurately distinguish the deep-seated and shallow landslides, this study adopts the SHALSTAB model with the consideration of slope angle. And then, based on the classified deep-seated and shallow landslide inventories, the landslide susceptibility models, i.e., Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine models, were created. These susceptibility models were developed for different watershed and in different scales; their performances were evaluated and compared, including the AUC values and the control factor weightings. A random sampling logic was proposed to increase the analysis efficiency, and results show a promising performance. The developed models in this study can more properly and efficiently generate susceptibility maps for landslide hazard assessment and mitigation.

Evaluating sinkhole formation with multicriteria decision analysis: a case study in Karapınar-Konya, Turkey

Sinkholes (dolines) are considered natural hazards that threaten both human life and agricultural economic income. Due to their characteristic sudden occurrences, sinkholes are almost impossible to avoid. Geology, hydrogeology, irrigation, precipitation, climate, land use changes, and urbanization are the main factors that activate sinkhole occurrences. More than 300 sinkholes have been reported in the Karapinar region situated in Konya Province, Turkey, and this number has increased in the last 5 years. In particular, increasing agricultural activities cause rapid lowering of groundwater levels by excessive pumping for irrigation. A total of 55,267 water wells are in use in the region, which increases the risk factors for sinkholes in Karapinar. The importance of Karapinar region for solar energy, intensive agricultural activities, and a planned thermal power plant to be built soon gives estimating sinkhole probability and investigating ways of predicting and preventing sinkholes vital importance. The main purpose of this study is to predict possible sinkhole formation in the Konya region based on historical occurrences and to ensure reporting to authorities to raise awareness of this problem. Sinkhole susceptibility maps using the AHP, TOPSIS, and VIKOR methods, which are included in the multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) concept, were prepared for the Karapinar region to achieve this purpose. The elevation, slope, geology, rock strength values, land use, water well density, and distance to settlements and roads were considered criteria to generate the sinkhole susceptibility maps. Strength test results (geological data set), which were not added to susceptibility maps in previous studies, were used in this study. The generated susceptibility maps were verified by correlation analysis and by overlaying existing sinkholes with susceptibility values. Necessary suggestions are presented for the Karapinar region based on the results of this study. The calculated ratios using the AHP, TOPSIS, and VIKOR methods are 3.53%, 2.55%, and 2.86%, respectively, which imply that the study area is highly susceptible to sinkhole occurrences. Based on the correlation analysis, an r value of 0.982 is derived using the AHP and VIKOR methods. When existing sinkhole locations are considered, the AHP method produces the most likely sinkhole locations. In addition, the AHP method can be used to prepare and update the susceptibility maps for any region that is at risk of sinkhole formation.

Landslide susceptibility and influencing factors analysis in Rwanda

Rwanda as a landlocked country has been recurrently facing tremendous and devastating landslides having serious impacts on the environment and socioeconomic development. Analyzing landslide susceptibility and its influencing factors could ease landslide disaster control and, hence, contributes to environmental sustainability. Unfortunately, detailed information on influencing factors per respective classes and their level of correlation to the probability of landslide occurrence have not been fully analyzed in Rwanda. The purpose of this study is to reveal the spatial correlation between landslide occurrence and different classes of influencing factors using the frequency ratio (FR) approach with geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques. Initially, a landslide inventory map was prepared using 423 landslide locations that were randomly split into 75% of training datasets (318 points) and 25% (105 points) to validate the model. A multicollinearity analysis was performed among ten influencing factors using the tolerance and variance inflation factor method. These factors include elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to rivers, the normalized difference vegetation index, land use land cover, stream power index, rainfall and soil texture. The analysis revealed no multicollinearity among these factors, and therefore, all of them were suitable for modeling process. The FR model evaluated the relationship between landslide incidence and influencing factors in their respective classes and then generated the landslide susceptibility map using GIS which revealed the western, northern and some parts of southern province as the most susceptible areas owing to the slope, LCLU, rainfall and elevation as the main influencing factors. The generated susceptibility map was validated using the area under curve which portrayed 81.2% and 84.6% for success and prediction rate, respectively. To conclude, the results of this study are essential for future initiatives regarding landslide risk reduction toward sustainability in Rwanda. However, these can be broad and may reflect the most landslide influencing factors projected in other central-east African regions.

A Novel Swarm Intelligence-Harris Hawks Optimization for Spatial Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility.

In this research, the novel metaheuristic algorithm Harris hawks optimization (HHO) is applied to landslide susceptibility analysis in Western Iran. To this end, the HHO is synthesized with an artificial neural network (ANN) to optimize its performance. A spatial database comprising 208 historical landslides, as well as 14 landslide conditioning factors—elevation, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, soil type, lithology, distance to the river, distance to the road, distance to the fault, land cover, slope degree, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), and rainfall—is prepared to develop the ANN and HHO–ANN predictive tools. Mean square error and mean absolute error criteria are defined to measure the performance error of the models, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) is used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated susceptibility maps. The findings showed that the HHO algorithm effectively improved the performance of ANN in both recognizing (AUROCANN = 0.731 and AUROCHHO–ANN = 0.777) and predicting (AUROCANN = 0.720 and AUROCHHO–ANN = 0.773) the landslide pattern.

Testing a New Ensemble Model Based on SVM and Random Forest in Forest Fire Susceptibility Assessment and Its Mapping in Serbia’s Tara National Park

The main objectives of this paper are to demonstrate the results of an ensemble learning method based on prediction results of support vector machine and random forest methods using Bayesian average. In this study, we generated susceptibility maps of forest fire using supervised machine learning method (support vector machine—SVM) and its comparison with a versatile machine learning algorithm (random forest—RF) and their ensembles. In order to achieve this, first of all, a forest fire inventory map was constructed using Serbian historical forest fire database, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer (MODIS), Landsat 8 OLI and Worldview-2 satellite images, field surveys, and interpretation of aerial photo images. A total of 126 forest fire locations were identified and randomly divided by a random selection algorithm into two groups, including training (70%) and validation data sets (30%). Forest fire susceptibility maps were prepared using SVM, RF, and their ensemble models using the training dataset and 14 selected different conditioning factors. Finally, to explore the performance of the mentioned models we used the values for area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC). The results depicted that the ensemble model had an AUC = 0.848, followed by the SVM model (AUC = 0.844), and RF model (AUC = 0.834). According to achieved AUC results, it can be deduced that SVM, RF, and their ensemble method had satisfactory performance. The study was applied in the Tara National Park (West Serbia), a region of about 191.7 sq. km distinguished by a very high forest density and a large number of forest fires.

Analysing water-borne diseases susceptibility in Kolkata Municipal Corporation using WQI and GIS based Kriging interpolation

The varieties of water-borne disease are caused by pathogens transmitted and spread by different routes. The spread of such infection increases while the water quality affected by external sources. Changes in the quality of water can influence the dynamics of microbial pathogens which can also influence the prevalence and transmission dynamics of water-borne diseases. The present study highlighted on selected chemical parameters of ground water to signify the water quality index and mapping of water-borne diseases susceptibility areas in Kolkata Municipal Corporation, India. The main objective of present study was to demonstrate the significance of geographical information system based Geostatistical technique for identifying water-borne diseases susceptibility by taking different ground water parameters, water quality index and reported water-borne diseases into consideration. Using Kriging interpolation, the spatial map of water parameters, water quality index and reported disease cases were prepared and reclassified by putting risk rank to generate susceptibility map of water-borne diseases. The accuracy of the result was assessed through error estimation and spatial autocorrelation. The result from error estimation, it was found that the root mean square error between diseases susceptibility and selected chemical parameters, water quality index and reported water-borne diseases are 0.0847, 0.1182 and 0.0640 respectively which is always < 1. The correlation of diseases susceptibility with chemical parameters has resulted highly positive (r2 = 0.97) and with water quality index has also resulted positive (r2 = 0.82). The study result also suggests the applicability of geographical information system in other types of diseases susceptibility analysis by setting proper objectives and selecting suitable study criteria with spatial justification.