Hydromechanical modeling of evolving post-wildfire regional-scale landslide susceptibility

Abstract

Post-wildfire mass wasting is a major problem throughout many regions worldwide. Recent dramatic increases in global wildfire activities coupled with a shift in wildfire-prone elevation to higher altitudes raise the need to better predict post-fire rainfall-triggered landslides. Despite its importance, only a limited number of studies have investigated landslide susceptibility in areas hit by wildfires using hydromechanical models. However, most of these studies follow either qualitative or semi-quantitative approaches without explicitly considering the fire's effects on the impacted area's physical behavior. This study aims to develop and employ a physics-based framework to generate susceptibility maps of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in areas disturbed by wildfire. A coupled hydromechanical model considering unsaturated flow and root reinforcement is integrated into an infinite slope stability model to simulate the triggering of shallow landslides from rainfall. The impact of fire is considered through its effects on soil and land cover properties, near-surface processes, and canopy interception. The developed model is then integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) to characterize the regional distribution of landslide potential and its variability considering topography, geology, land cover, and burn severity. The proposed framework was tested for a study site in Southern California. The site was burned in the San Gabriel Complex Fire in June 2016 and experienced widespread landsliding almost three years later following an extreme rainstorm in January 2019. The proposed framework could successfully model the location of observed shallow landslides. The model also revealed a significantly higher likelihood for slope failure in areas burned at moderate to high severities as opposed to unburned and low-burn severity areas. The findings of this study can be employed to predict the timing and general locations of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides following wildfires.