General Fertility Rate Research Articles

Analysis of Factors Contributing Fertility Decline in Korea.

With the successful Korean national family planning program and rapid socioeconomic advancement since 1962, the contraceptive prevalence rate has risen from 9% in 1964 to 79% in 1991, with the corresponding total fertility rate (TFR) going from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.6 in 1988, which is considerably below the replacement fertility rate. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to identify the structural and causal factors that contributed to the fall in fertility over the last 3 decades, in an effort to formulate future population policy directions and strategies. The 2 methods used for the study were: the standardization approach to examine the structural factors on fertility decline, and the bongaarts model to measure the effects of the proximate variables in the fertility decline. The study indicated that the fall in the crude birth rate and the general fertility rate for the periods of 1960-70 and 1980-90 were largely influenced by the decline in marital fertility which was triggered by the national family planning program initiated in 1962. The analysis based on the bongaarts model revealed that the 3 principal factors which exercised a strong influence on the fertility decline were the rise in age at marriage, the increase in induced abortion, and the increase in contraceptive use, but the influence of induced abortion has been decreasing in recent years. In general, the study results suggest that the main concerns of the national family planning program should be shifted from the past quantitative approach with emphasis on fertility reduction to a qualitative approach which stresses maternal and child health and other public health programs.

Polygyny and Fertility among the Shipibo of the Peruvian Amazon

This report describes a study of the fertility experience of an Amazon Indian tribe that has shown evidence of having the highest documented fertility of any human group. The Shipibo, who live in the upper Peruvian Amazon, are experiencing rapid cultural change, including a decline in the prevalence of polygyny. This study tests the specific hypotheses that polygyny limits individual female and community fertility through the mechanism of post partum sexual abstinence and longer birth intervals. Total population counts in eight villages and reproductive histories of all females age 13+ show that mean birth interval lengths of polygynous women are four months longer than those of monogamous women. Fertility of polygynous women was lower, with 1.3 fewer term-births per reproductive span than that of monogamous women. The community general fertility rate is negatively associated with the proportion of polygynous birth intervals in the community. In this study, cultural change is strongly associated with higher fertility.

Socioeconomic structure and fertility in China: a county level investigation

Analysis of the general fertility rate in the counties of China shows significant associations with infant mortality, illiteracy, and the percentage of the population employed in industry, but not with industrial or agricultural output. Urban counties differ from rural in the importance of the illiteracy rate. The associations in the rural counties vary according to the region of China in which they are located.

Follow-up study of reproductive hazards of multiparous women consuming PCBs-Contaminated rice oil in Taiwan

In 1979, an epidemic of a peculiar skin disease occurred in central Taiwan. Investigations showed that affected individuals had consumed rice oil contaminated with polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and thermal degradation products of PCB. Similar chemical exposure and clinical findings occurred in Japan, 1968. Rice-oil disease was called Yusho in Japanese and Yu-Cheng in Chinese. In Taiwan, major victims of PCB poisoning were students and factor workers 11 to 30 years of age. About 800 poisoned women of reproductive age might have been married or would get married after the poisoning. According to the age-specific general fertility rate in Taiwan, it was estimated about 270 PCB transplacental Yu-Cheng babies were born to these women between 1979 and 1986. Therefore, reproductive hazard was the most important problem under this circumstance. The complete reproductive outcomes of PCB-poisoned women were assessed in this study. The results include birth weights, placental weights, prenatal conditions, infant weights and growth curves of babies affected by transplacental PCB intoxication.

Differential reproduction rates and Osage population change, 1877-1907.

Child-woman ratios have long been recognized as a valuable estimator of general fertility rates when vital events data are absent or unreliable. Using child-woman ratios, we analyze the effective fertility differentials between Osage full-bloods and mixed-bloods. A comparison between these two social groups reveal that the mixed-blood Osage subpopulation had a significantly higher effective fertility rate than did the full-bloods. From this data, we explore the reasons for this reproductive differential and its politicalconsequences for the Osage from 1877 to 1907.

Modernization, Contraception and Fertility Change in India

Indian fertility levels prior to the introduction of birth control were moderately high yet below levels observed in many developing countries. Despite early marriage and the universality of marriage in India periods of sexual abstinence and other cultural practices are believed to have kept the level of natural fertility lower than in European societies and to have resulted in a fertility pattern in which Indian women completed childbearing relatively early. By weakening such practices as breastfeeding and sexual abstinence modernization seems to have increased the levels of natural fertility: Marital fertility rates rose between 1951 and 1975 despite increases in contraceptive practice and an increase since the beginning of the century in the age at marriage from approximately 13 to 18 years among girls. An analysis of 1972 and 1984 fertility data for a number of Indian states shows that while some states experienced declines in the general marital fertility rate of approximately 30% the decline in others was less than 10%. In addition total fertility rates in the states ranged widely from 2.4 to 5.9 children per women in 1984. Of the variables considered the adult female literacy rate was found to be most closely associated with the total fertility rate. Interstate differences in fertility rates were found to be closely tied to differences in the proportion of couples protected by modern contraception which ranged from 12-40% in 1984.

Impact on mortality and fertility of a community-based malaria control programme in Saradidi, Kenya.

Mortality and fertility rates were measured from 1981 to 1983 by prospective registration of vital events as part of a community-based malaria control and health development programme in Saradidi, Kenya. There was no obvious effect of providing chloroquine phosphate for treatment of malaria in each village on mortality or fertility rates. Crude death rates were 13.1 in the year before intervention (1 May 1981 to 30 April 1982) and 12.3 after intervention (1 September 1982 to 31 August 1983). Neonatal mortality increased from 36.8 per 1000 live births pre-intervention to 49.1 during intervention. There was a slight decline in post-neonatal (one to 12 months) mortality (72.8 to 67.0) and a significant drop in early childhood mortality (25.2 to 18.2). The change in mortality rates in these two age groups were fully explained by a high rate of measles mortality in the pre-intervention period. Measles accounted for 35.7% of 284 reported deaths in infants one to 12 months of age and for 40.9% of 230 deaths in children one to four years old. There was little change in reported malaria-specific mortality rates in infants and young children most likely because of a high level of chloroquine use for treatment of presumptive illness. Perinatal mortality by area ranged between 60.4 and 81.3 pre-intervention to 79.5 to 97.2 after the control programme was instituted. Crude birth rates by area remained stable at about 40 and general fertility rates were about 200. Both pre-intervention and during intervention infants were significantly more likely to have died without medical consultation than children one to four years. However, 79.2% of 284 infants and 90.7% of 193 children died in spite of having consulted a health worker prior to death. The data suggest that a measles vaccine programme would significantly reduce mortality rates in infants and young children. The fact that the majority of infants and young children died in spite of receiving medical attention indicates both the inadequacy of curative medical services in this high mortality setting as well as the necessity for promoting preventive health measures.

Birthplace differentials in the age-specific fertility of Australian women.

The author examines differentials in age-specific fertility by place of birth among Australian women. The data are from one percent public-use samples of both persons and households files of the 1981 census. "This paper reports estimates of the general fertility rates, completed family sizes and age-specific fertility rates for a selection of birthplace and regional groups." It is determined that, to a large extent, the fertility patterns of the 1970s apply for the 1980s

The Rapid Fertility Decline in Guam Natives

Since the end of World War II the Guam native population who are mostly Roman Catholics has undergone 1 of the most dramatic socioeconomic developments ever recorded turning completely from a subsistence to a wage economy within a few decades. They have rapidly become incorporated into the dominant American culture and economy. This accelerated process of modernization has been accompanied by a very sharp fertility decline. Surprisingly from 1950 to 1960 fertility declined dramatically in the absence of a family planning program. The estimated fertility rates for Guam natives in 1950 1960 1970 and 1977 illustrate this decline. The TFR for Guam natives declined 12% from 7282 children/1000 women of reproductive age in 1950 to 6414 in 1960. By 1977 it was only 1/2 of the 1950 rate. The general fertility rate followed a similar pattern dropping 48% from 219 to 113 over the period 1950-77. The family planning program inaugurated in 1968 probably facilitated the rapid fertility decline since 1970. Although nearly 1/2 the decline in the crude birth rate from 1950 to 1960 is attributable to changes in the age structure this is not thought to be the explanation for the 43% decline from 1950-77 as shown by the age-standardized crude birth rate using the 1950 population as the standard. The trend of fertility decline for Guam natives was similar to that for developing countries with dramatic fertility reduction during the modernization process e.g. South Korea Taiwan and Hong Kong. The fertility trend of Guam natives is a good example of other findings that fertility declines often occur at points of intersection of major cultures as well as on islands which are maybe more readily susceptible to outside influence. Many conditions favorable to a fertility decline on Guam are present namely those arising from contact with mainstream American culture. They include a rising age at marriage as women increasingly participate in the labor force and achieve higher educational levels. A KAP study relative to family planning among native Guam women found increasing use of contraceptive devices among them regardless of their Churchs opposition. It is suggested that the increasing defection of Guam Roman Catholic women from the teachings of their Church on the subject of birth control has been 1 main reason for the observed fertility decline.

Ethnic fertility differences in Canada, 1926–71: an examination of assimilation hypothesis

SummaryThe changing pattern of fertility differences among ethnic groups in Canada during the period 1926–71 is studied. Two specific questions are addressed. (1) Do ethnic groups assimilate the fertility patterns of the general Canadian population over time, i.e. are the fertility differences disappearing? (2) Is the extent of assimilation in fertility greater in urban than in rural areas? The indirectly standardized general fertility rates, calculated by using the ethnic age distribution data from the censuses of 1931 to 1971, indicate a tendency for the population to become more homogeneous during times of increasing fertility, thus supporting the assimilative possibilities, whereas in times of declining fertility there is a tendency for the population to become more heterogeneous. The data also seem to support weaker assimilatory tendencies in rural areas than in urban areas during only the most recent period, 1966–71, and not in earlier periods.

Measuring Mortality, Fertility, and Natural Increase: A Self-Teaching Guide to Elementary Measures

This self-teaching guide about elementary demographic measures a 4th edition is designed to familiarize the graduate undergraduate and even advanced high school student with most measures of mortality and fertility that are likely to be encountered in an introductory course on population issues. It may also be used as an introductory text in courses that concentrate on demographic methods. A 3rd use is in social science courses other than population. Most instructors will find that they require a maximum of 3 hours of class time to review the exercises with students and to clarify any points that are confusing. Each chapter explains elementary principles of demographic measurement and each has the following parts: definitions of measures and examples of their usual values; exercises and questions for the student that emphasize interpretation rather than computation; and references to other sources that use the measures in interesting or important ways. It is possible to measure the incidence of an event e.g. death in many ways. The 1st chapter discusses rates of various types and ratios percentages and probabilities using the measurement of mortality as an illustration. The 2nd chapter devoted to mortality begins with measures of mortality for historical reasons. Focus in the chapter is on the following: crude death rate (CDR); age specific death rates; the effect of age composition on the crude death rate; the infant mortality rate; the life table; and the application of the life table to mortality analysis. The volumes 3rd chapter deals with fertility natural increase and reproduction rates. Attention is then directed to the following: special problems in measuring fertility; the crude birthrate; the crude rate of natural increase; the general fertility rate; age specific fertility rates; standardized birthrates; gross and net reproduction rates; the mean length of a generation; census measures of fertility; cohort fertility measures; and analysis of birth intervals.

Malumfashi Endemic Diseases Research Project, XIX. Demographic findings: population structure and fertility.

Population studies were undertaken as part of the Endemic Disease Research Project at Malumfashi northern Nigeria 1974-78. This paper is concerned with population composition and estimates of fertility. Results are based on retrospective enumeration data on 42493 people and on prospective registration data on a subset of 26100 people. The age-sex structure fits the model for developing countries: 45% under age 15 and just 3% aged 65 years and over. The scene for high fertility is set by an early mean age of 1st marriage for women age 15. The crude birth rate was 55% and the general fertility rate 221% (enumeration data). Detailed fertility analyses based on enumeration data suggest consistency particularly when the relationship between the pattern and the level of fertility is examined. The number of live births a woman could expect if she survived to the end of her reproductive period is on the average 6.8. More births were found to occur in the wet season than the dry season. The twinning rate was 1 in 69. (authors)

Endemic malaria, malnutrition and child deaths

Past failures of nutrition programmes could lead to disillusionment among governments with nutritionists unless realistic targets are adopted. High child death rates are due to both infection and malnutrition, both causes of high general fertility rates. A nutrition programme in Zambia examined malarial infections and undemutrition as causes of death. Where malnutrition was diagnosed in youngest childen, significantly more siblings had died. However, positive malaria in the youngest child was associated with most sibling deaths; rates being always higher among children where it was detected. A reduction in malaria transmission is proposed as a more effective policy than any nutritional aim, other than that of increasing general food production. This would reduce death rates and population growth and increase the availability of family resources for each child.

Seasonality of fertility in Matlab, Bangladesh.

SummaryFrom matched birth and census records in the Matlab area of Bangladesh, monthly fertility rates for the period 1970–74 are studied for seasonal patterns by age and parity. Trigonometric regression techniques are used to summarize and compare the multiple series. Pronounced seasonal patterns are apparent for all age and parity groups. The general fertility rate peaks in December with a seasonal variation of 42% above and below the mean level. For younger women at low parities the peak is in late October, while for older women of higher parity it is in January. The shift progresses linearly with age and parity though the age effect is the more pronounced. A seasonal pattern of fecundability which varies by age group could explain the shift.

The theory of change and response: an application to Puerto Rico, 1940 to 1970.

Summary This study demonstrates that even the complex and much misunderstood demographic transition in Puerto Rico can be understood with the aid of the Theory of Change and Response. Analysis of census and vital statistics in Puerto Rico by decade for the rural and urban sectors reveals a wide range of demographic responses. The 1940's were characterized by rural/urban migration, urban emigration, and moderate reductions in urban marital fertility. There was no decline in rural marital fertility during the 1940's. Contrary to expectations, rural fertility fell very little during the 1950's, and the rate of decline of urban fertility was reduced. The decline in the urban general marital fertility rate was smaller than in the 1940's (15 against 23 per cent), despite a highly publicized development programme and rapid growth in gross national product. This occurred because there was a ready emigration outlet (to the mainland United States), and because emigration was preferred to a reduction of marital fert...

The Birth Rate in Singapore

The major demographic variables accounting for the change in birth rates in Singapore are examined to determine the relative importance of each and how they have operated in the main ethnic groups. Crude birth rates age-specific birth rates age-nuptiality-births distribution general fertility rates total fertility rates gross reproductive rates and age-specific marital fertility rates are compared according to ethnicity. A more thorough investigation of the contribution of age distribution nuptiality and marital fertility to the change in birth rate is undertaken through decomposition of the birth rate. Trends within the total population and the Chinese Malay and Iddian populations from 1957-1970 are examined. The relationship between fertility and education activity status and contraceptive use is then explored for each ethnic group and the population as a whole. It is concluded that a spontaneous postponement of marriage has contributed nearly as much to the decline in Singapores birth rate as has the reduction in marital fertility sought by the large-scale family planning program. Continued reduction in the birth rate may be encouraged by recognition and exploitation of this factor.

Structural Determinants of Fertility in Latin America: 1800-1970

This paper 1) estimates the effects of colonial penetration extraction of wealth and 19th century immigration on Latin American modernization and Catholic Church strength at the beginning of the 20th century; 2) estimates the net effect of modernization and Catholic institutional strength (CIS) on crude birthrates and illegitimacy ratios in Lation America in 1910 1940 and 1970; and 3) compares general marital and illegitimate fertility rates in 1960. The objective is to investigate factors that accelerate or retard acceptance of the preconditions resulting in lower fertility. Several procedures were intended to remedy deficiencies of earlier studies: 1) the population was defined as a readily identifiable geographic and cultural group--all Latin American nations with Spanish heritage; 2) a structural equation model of fertility and illegitimacy was employed that incorporated independent effects of modernization and CIS; 3) indicators of modernization were pooled into a unidimensional index; and 4) the relative effects of causal agents were compared for 1910 1940 and 1970. Path coefficients among predictor variables were estimated for 18 countries. Both migration and late colonial penetration took significant paths to 1910 modernization with migration the stronger variable. The 2 variables explained about 83% of the variation among nations in 1900 modernization. Extraction of wealth was the only variable significantly related to 1900 CIS. The partial correlates of modernization and CIS net of the set of preceding predictor variables were not significant for any period beginning in 1910. Path coefficients of structural modernization and CIS on crude birthrates for the 18 countries in 1910 1940 and 1970 suggest increasing and then stable large negative effects of modernization on fertility among Latin nations. The net effect of Church strength on crude birthrates is positive but not always significant. Church strength reduces consensual unions and thus lowers illegitimate fertility butthe negative effect on illegitimacy is counterbalanced by a positive effect on marital fertility rates. The net result is a small positive effect of Church strength on the total number of births.

The Effect of Illegitimacy on U.S. General Fertility Rates and Population Growth

The Effect of Illegitimacy on U.S. General Fertility Rates and Population Growth

The Decline of Illegitimacy in Japan

Although we are typically geared to examining deviance in social situations where it looms relatively large or is on the increase, it is possible to learn a great deal from negative case studies, as well. In Japan although concubinage had been, historically, a recognized contractual arrangement and births out of wedlock were recorded as 8.8 percent of the total in 1900, illegitimacy has been declining throughout the 20th century to the point of virtual disappearance. From 1940 to 1964 (1) the ratio, or percentage of all births illegitimate, declined by 75 percent, (2) the general illegitimate fertility rate dropped by 88 percent and (3) the number of births out of wedlock was reduced by 80 percent. The demographic and sociological factors related to the decline are examined for clues unique to Japan and/or applicable to societies in general.

Effects of a family planning program on the fertility of a marginal working-class community in Santiago

Resumen Se describe en general un proyecto de investigación que tiene por objecto estudiar los posibles efectos de un programa de planificación familiar sobre la fecundidad, aborto, mortalidad y morbilidad infantil, y sobre diversas variables psicológicas y sociales, en una comunidad obrera suburbana en Santiago de Chile. Se eeioblece como propósito de este artículo, presentar los resultados que se han obtenido en el estudio de los cambios obseroados en la fecundidad de la población despues del primer ano de acción del programa de planificación familiar, correspondiente al período Marzo de 1965 a Marzo de 1966. Se describe la metodología usada para estudiar estos cambios mediante el uso de la Historia de Embarazos. Se presentan las variaciones que han experimentado las Tasas de Fecundidad por Grupo de Edad (ASFR), la Tasa General de Fecundidad (GFR) y la Tasa Total de Fecundidad (TFR) desde 1962 haeta 1966, año en el cual se esperaban los posibles efectos del primer año del programa. Para analizar estas variaciones en términos del posible efecto del programa, se clasifica la muestra en Pacientes del Consultorio de Planificación Familiar, Otras Mujeres Protegidas (OPW), y Mujeres No Protegidas (NPW). Se demuestra que en 1966 la fecundidad de la población bajó en un 27.4 porciento respecto a la fecundidad estimada para ese año si no hubiese disminuído la fecundidad de las Pacienies ni la fecundidad de las Otras Mujeres Protegidas. Se demuestra que el programa de planificación familiar por sí, solo resultaría responsable de un descenso de 24.5 porciento en la fecundidad de la población. Se discute la relación existente entre la magnitud del cambio obsevatudo y el bajo porcentaje de mujeres de 15 a 44 años de edad que han sido protegidas. Se concluye al respecto que el cambio fué posible porque se usaron anticonceptivos de alta eficacia y se protegieron las mujeres de mas alta fecundidad dentro de la población. Se discute brevemente la validez de los datos obtenidos mediante el método de la Historia de ebarazoe en el estudio de cambios en fecundidad. Se analiza la magnitud de la disminución observada en la fecundidad de la población en 1964, antes de que comenzara el Programa de Planificación Familiar. Se discute la participación de las pacientes, OPW y NPW en este cambio. Se analiza la fecundidad que habría tenido la población si en ausencia del programa, las pacientes hubieran disminuido su fecundidad en la misma proporción en que la disminuyen anualmente las Otras Mujeres Protegidas (en lugar de mantener la fecundidad que tenían en los años anteriores al programa). Se concluye que en tal caso el programa sería aún responsoble de un descenso de 19.9 porciento en la fecundidad de la poblacion. Se señala la necesidad de continuar la investigación para determinar si los efectos observados se mantendrán en el tiempo y cual será la magnitud de los efectos del segundo y tercer año de acción del programa.