Analysis of Factors Contributing Fertility Decline in Korea.

Abstract

With the successful Korean national family planning program and rapid socioeconomic advancement since 1962, the contraceptive prevalence rate has risen from 9% in 1964 to 79% in 1991, with the corresponding total fertility rate (TFR) going from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.6 in 1988, which is considerably below the replacement fertility rate. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to identify the structural and causal factors that contributed to the fall in fertility over the last 3 decades, in an effort to formulate future population policy directions and strategies. The 2 methods used for the study were: the standardization approach to examine the structural factors on fertility decline, and the bongaarts model to measure the effects of the proximate variables in the fertility decline. The study indicated that the fall in the crude birth rate and the general fertility rate for the periods of 1960-70 and 1980-90 were largely influenced by the decline in marital fertility which was triggered by the national family planning program initiated in 1962. The analysis based on the bongaarts model revealed that the 3 principal factors which exercised a strong influence on the fertility decline were the rise in age at marriage, the increase in induced abortion, and the increase in contraceptive use, but the influence of induced abortion has been decreasing in recent years. In general, the study results suggest that the main concerns of the national family planning program should be shifted from the past quantitative approach with emphasis on fertility reduction to a qualitative approach which stresses maternal and child health and other public health programs.