The population growth of Hong Kong.

Abstract

This paper analyzes population dynamics in Hong Kong in the period 1961-85. Hong Kong's population increased from 3.13 million in 1961 to 3.94 million in 1971 to 4.99 million in 1981. Of the 1985 population of 5.42 million, 15.3% were under 10 years of age and 11.5% were 60 years of age or older. The largest proportion (31%) was represented by the 20-34-year age group, a result of both high birth rates in the late 1950s and early 1960s and the large influx of Chinese immigrants in the 1970s. The crude birth rate in 1984 was below 15/1000. The decline in fertility in the past decade is attributable to a decline in marital fertility and postponement of marriage. The median age at 1st marriage currently stands at 27 years for men and 24 years for women. The fertility rates of 5-year age groups declined by 20-50% in the 1970s, with the largest decreases in the groups covering ages 35-49 years. The total fertility rate fell from 3.41 in 1971 to 1.97 in 1981. 1st and 2nd-order births have accounted for over 75% of total births in recent years. The fertility rate in the 20-24-year age group is projected to drop from the present level of 90/1000 to 70/1000 in 1991 and the rate in the 25-29-year group is expected to fall from 161/1000 to 146/1000. Although there has been an increase in total deaths due to population growth and demographic aging, the standardized mortality rate has fallen from 5/1000 in 1971 to 3.7/1000 in 1981, with greater declines among males than females. The infant mortality rate is now below 9/1000. Since the net migration balance is now about 15,000/year, natural increases will comprise the major factor contributing to future population growth. The population is expected to reach 6 million in 1992, and the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over should reach 10% by the late 1990s.