Abstract
Summary This study demonstrates that even the complex and much misunderstood demographic transition in Puerto Rico can be understood with the aid of the Theory of Change and Response. Analysis of census and vital statistics in Puerto Rico by decade for the rural and urban sectors reveals a wide range of demographic responses. The 1940's were characterized by rural/urban migration, urban emigration, and moderate reductions in urban marital fertility. There was no decline in rural marital fertility during the 1940's. Contrary to expectations, rural fertility fell very little during the 1950's, and the rate of decline of urban fertility was reduced. The decline in the urban general marital fertility rate was smaller than in the 1940's (15 against 23 per cent), despite a highly publicized development programme and rapid growth in gross national product. This occurred because there was a ready emigration outlet (to the mainland United States), and because emigration was preferred to a reduction of marital fert...
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